This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has new results from Newspoll and Essential Research to play with, smooths away last week’s movement to the Coalition to the extent of suggesting that Labor would more likely emerge at the head of the projected minority government. Labor makes three gains on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. A drop in the Greens vote is partly down to an unusually strong result in the last Ipsos poll washing out of the system, but there have also been some slightly softer numbers for them in polls released over the last fortnight. The model doesn’t quite yet know how to deal with the new-look Galaxy-conducted Newspoll, which has come in at the high end for Labor on the primary vote in its two polls so far, in contrast with the habits of the Newspoll of old. As a result, it’s not being weighted too heavily just at the moment. Hopefully new results from more established poll series with better-understood biases will help clear the air over the coming weeks. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have caused a further loss of skin for Bill Shorten, putting Tony Abbott with his nose back in front on preferred prime minister.
Furthermore:
• The sudden death of Liberal MP Don Randall on Tuesday will presumably mean a by-election will be held in his outer southern Perth seat of Canning at some point, perhaps in September or October, assuming there’s no early general election on the boil. Mandurah mayor Marina Vergone has been mentioned to me as a potential contestant for Liberal preselection, but all such talk at this stage is in the realm of speculation. Randall’s margin at the 2013 election was 11.8%, but a fair chunk of that appears to have been his personal vote – the Liberal two-party vote in the electorate’s booths was 7% lower at the March 2013 state election than at the federal election, compared with a 1% differential statewide. I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey yesterday.
• Michael Owen of The Australian reports Labor’s state executive in South Australia has initiated proceedings for federal preselections in the state’s three potentially winnable Liberal-held seats, together with all those held by Labor, where the incumbents are expected to be uncontested. Steve Georganas is the reported front-runner in Hindmarsh, which he held from 2004 until 2013 when he was unseated by current Liberal member Matt Williams, who sits on a margin of 1.9%. Potential nominees for Boothby and Sturt, respectively held for the Liberals by Andrew Southcott on a 7.1% margin and Christopher Pyne on a 10.1% margin, are respectively said to include Mark Ward, a high school teacher and Mitcham councillor who was narrowly unsuccessful in the Davenport state by-election in January, and Jo Chapley, an in-house legal counsel for Foodland supermarkets who performed strongly against Opposition Leader Steven Marshall in his seat of Dunstan at the March 2014 state election.
• The Australian last week published the regular annual Newspoll survey on expectations in respondents’ standard of living over the six months to come, and found 13% expecting them to improve, down three points on an improved result last year, a steady 22% expecting them to get worse, and 64% expecting them to stay the same, up four points.
• As well as the aforementioned Canning by-election article, my paywalled contributions to Crikey over the past fortnight considered the possibility of a double dissolution, moves at the state conference of Queensland’s Liberal National Party to strengthen state executive powers to reject preselection applications and disendorse troublesome candidates, and the inconsistency of the Greens’ poll results.
@Zoomster/148
“You’re suggesting we ‘solve’ Australia’s problem by ignoring refugees in greater need, an attitude I find selfish.”
It’s funny, thinking the current mind set of the punitive policy actually solved anything? It’s still going on after 20 years, we haven’t moved on from White Australia.
ABC Business @ABCBusinessNews 29m29 minutes ago
Median Sydney house price cracks $1 mill up 23% yoy National average $702K http://ab.co/1VxrbyQ @mikejanda
Hockey says “get a better job”.
[“@ABCNews24: Sarah Hanson-Young: Bill Shorten’s back flip is more about politics than it is about policy or compassion #auspol #asylumseekers”]
Of course, SHY is NOT in politics herself, so can fell free to wax on criticising them, without the slightest hint of any consequences.
I am yet to understand why the Greens prefer people to arrive in boats, rather than go through the other, more formal processes that other refugees do.
There’s a mystique about boat journeys, isn’t there? A cruel sea, their lives in the balance, nasty people at both ends. It makes for good dramatic stuff, romantic even.
But it does kill people. Clearly the threat of being drowned at sea does not deter all that many boat people. They are, admttedly, probably told that the journey’s as safe as houses, and there’ll be a cooked meal, new clothes and a warm bed waiting for them at the other end. With jobs to burn, too, when they are inevitably released from nominal detention lasting just a few days.
We could have at least tried the Mayalsia Solution, but the cynical Coalition who rejoiced in every death – remember Morrison’s humanity when he told Ray Hadley that he would prohibit kids from attending their own mother’s funeral… that’s the Christian spirit, Scott! – and the tragic, deluded Greens stopped it dead.
It was bad luck for Labor, because Nauru was in exactly the same position as Malaysia – neither a signatory to the Convention at the relevant time – when Howard and Ruddock shipped their human cargos to that benighted island. If only someone had thought of challenging the policy then!
Labor could have stopped the whole process dead this year. But they didn’t. Instead they recognized both the politics and the humanity of it, and let the emergency legislation through. Absent Malaysia, where at least you can stretch your legs with a good long walk (impossible on either Nauru or Manus), and get some decent Asian food, Labor’s hand was forced. Abbott and Dutton have reacted with their usual good grace: never saying thank you, and slagging Shorten off at every opportunity (when the handmaiden, Leigh Sales or that other twat, Tony Jones, aren’t doing it ontheir behalf).
You learn pretty quickly that with Tony Abbott on the other side of the negotiating table there is never any hope. That’s why so many refuse to negotiate with him, unless forced to.
But unless the Greens want to give away the chance – for the third time – to get some other policies that might do some good going, then they will continue to allow their hearts to bleed onto their sleeves and do precisely nothing. There’s a plan for you! Do nothing and whinge lots. There’ll always be a few simpering idiots around who’ll vote for you.
There is NO romanticism in people coming here by boats. There is only the possibility of either death by drowning, or incarceration. The people on those boats are suffering wretches, of course. That is a given. But there are lots of suffering wretches who DO play by the rules, such as they are.
It’s not a perfect, and can never be one, because for every one boat person there are thousands of others who never get a chance at all. They die, starving or shot by rebels, ISIS, governments or whatever.
The simple fact is that there are too many people on this planet, and we can’t take all of them who want to come here. We can take some, true, but it has to be on our terms, not theirs. Paying a people smuggler for a hairy boat ride does not, or should not at least, automatically put the person on the boat at the head of the queue, simply by dint of their having enough money to bribe their way forward. They are no more oppressed than any other desperate person. They just have access to more money.
I tell you what “solves” the problem of refugees: having no refugee producing situations in the region.
bemused
I think it goes even further back, to the establishment of the railway system as a series of private enterprises, many of which failed for lack of patronage and were taken over by the State.
I lived at the end of a beautiful little railway line, which ran out of Frankston, and serviced a population of about ten thousand people max, few of whom ever bothered to use the train.
It was originally put in because one of the government MPs in the late 1800s had bought up large tracts of land for development – over one hundred years later, these were still bush blocks.
This kind of development has also meant that existing railway lines often have no logic to them – ones that should link up don’t, areas are over serviced, others – with a higher catchment don’t have any service at all.
Perhaps you all could take this commanders voice:
There is a need to intervene at the origins of the problem before this horrible journey – Commander of the Italian Fleet, Vice Admiral Filippo Foffi.
[Of course, SHY is NOT in politics herself, so can fell free to wax on criticising them, without the slightest hint of any consequences.]
The great thing about the Greens, when they can only influence, not exercise, power is that they are happily able to take an ‘All care but no responsibility’ approach to pretty much everything.
Shorten on domestic violence is very good.
Far better than most in parliament by a long long margin.
He is personally interested, involved and knowledgeable on the subject and far more trustworthy than just about anybody else in the building.
For the record, Tanya is pretty good also.
@shea/158
Actions speak louder than words.
lefty
[I tell you what “solves” the problem of refugees: having no refugee producing situations in the region.]
The Iranians come from our ‘region’?
[150
lefty e
1. Regional processing, by the UNHCR]
This is a furphy. Regional processing would require our neighbours to become our waiting rooms, to be the local herding yards for refugees. There is no sign at all they would do this simply for our own domestic political convenience.
Our neighbours already have plenty of refugees. They are frequently held in arbitrary detention. They are deprived of nearly all rights, making them subject to exploitation of various kinds. They have frequently sold themselves or their families into permanent servitude in order to fund their flight.
Why would we encourage refugees to submit themselves to a lottery in such circumstances? Why would our neighbours permit it?
SM
One of the things about NDIS. If a carer is doing abuse the disabled person can more easily change carers to avoid the abuse and thus make it easier to report that abuse.
This means even if the carer is family they can access a carer outside the family and escape the domestic violence. So not only is Mr Shorten good on the issue he has put in place a solution for voiceless victims to have a voice and practical solution.
[I am yet to understand why the Greens prefer people to arrive in boats, rather than go through the other, more formal processes that other refugees do.]
yes but other refugees go to well-funded UNHCR centres in Africa and Midle east, where they are processed offshore.
Our region is different: the biggest refugee receiving nations are malaysia and Indonesia, who arent signatories. the effect of this is that the UNHCR operates off donations rather than full national funding, and process bugger-all people as a result.
Then, for whatever crazy reasons, countries like ours dont even take that small number.
This leaves asylum seekers with the boat option. Fact. It even leaves processed refugees in that situation. Even crazier fact.
We started to acknowledge this quietly a while by quietly taking a few hundred from UNHCR Indonesia. We kept it on the down low though.
Im against that – it should be done openly as elsewhere. Here’s the process, its may be slow but it DOES result in resettlement if you are found to be a refugee.
Given the silly domestic scale of this issue (we receive stuff all people compared to Europe) Id go further: dedicate some of our quota to regional camps. There’s nothing unfair about that. Refugees from far away still get the rest of the quota. And they’re no more or less deserving than the local UNHCR processed refugees. And the regional ones solve a problem we imagine we have (we dont really, but I guess that comparative perspective is lost now).
Win win.
zoid
[Actions speak louder than words.]
Please explain the ‘actions’?
@briefly/161
“Our neighbours already have plenty of refugees.”
Yes because we refused to do anything that would actually solve the issue.
Further more, the human rights aspect on the issue would dampen Labor on anything else they would do (Health Care, Education, Abuse, etc).
[Regional processing would require our neighbours to become our waiting rooms, to be the local herding yards for refugees. There is no sign at all they would do this simply for our own domestic political convenience.]
Complete furphy! They already ARE local herding yards. That the situation now. Today.
But unlike elsewhere, no one comes in to solve the problem. They don even get processed.
@CTar1/164
Ah good old ‘gotchya’ moment.
155
Most of the rail network was state built. A couple of regional line railway companies failed and were taken over (to Geelong and Bendigo, if my memory service me correctly) with the suburban lines to Port Melbourne, St Kilda, Hawthorn and Sandringham surviving in private hands until taken over for unity reasons in 1878.
Land speculation and pork barrelling were big causes of railway construction. Lots of rural areas were given little railways that were not particularly viable and became less so with better road transport.
I take it you are talking about the Mornington line. That was hampered by geography into being indirect, a major reason that the line was not well used. A line through Mornington along the peninsular, with decent service levels, would be well used.
zoid
I’m not a big fan of Shorten or the ALP in general, but when it comes to women’s issues [I don’t like that phrase usually but it will do for now] Shorten, Plibersek and the ALP in general are miles ahead of the COALition both in word and deed over a long period.
Miles ahead.
When the ALP becomes government I am confident that the circumstances for women in this society will improve, maybe not anywhere as much as needed, almost certainly not so in fact, but definite improvement will be seen, as was the case during the Rudd/Gillard years in fact.
Both in word and deed.
Unfortunately the other mob are a complete disaster – as should be obvious.
zoid
[Ah good old ‘gotchya’ moment.]
A simple question on what you think should be done.
It’s very easy to continually ‘knock’ happenings without providing suggested solutions.
Briefly, why do you think Malaysia signed up so quickly to the ill-fated Malaysia solution under Bowen?
Its because THEY have a problem. It wasn’t for our ‘domestic political convenience’, I can assure you.
@CTar1/170
Stop using far right politics as an excuse?
[ABC Business @ABCBusinessNews 29m29 minutes ago
Median Sydney house price cracks $1 mill up 23% yoy National average $702K http://ab.co/1VxrbyQ @mikejanda
Hockey says “get a better job”.]
Abbott is hoping to call an election before the bubble bursts. When it does, many unhappy people will be looking for someone to blame and Abbott will be an easy target because he is in part to blame.
So now we are going to play hand in hand with the Libs on asylum seekers?
Disgraceful!
Regulatory Mess:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/the-regulatory-mess-of-the-nbn/story-e6frg9io-1227453695233
Thought Turnbulls fraudband was suppose to be Faster, Quicker, Sooner?
[Stop using far right politics as an excuse?]
😆
Look, im not unpragmatic about the need to take a major election hammer out of Abnott’s kitbag. Im not.
But this policy Shorten has signalled is going to see too much bleed on the left, and it doesnt convince swing voters. The right on this question arent voting ALP anyway.
There’s still time for the ALP conference to get smarter: go regioal processing, with “mr tough guy” as the back up to that. Not the first port of call. then youll distinguish from LNP and GRNs.
Neutralise it and move on. Bit dont just carbon copy – it doesnt convince people that your policies match your beliefs. This is the *actual nature of the wedge*. It draws the ALP into a position where they dont look credible, ad where the govt is comfortable. They are comfortable with being a*seholes. The ALP doesnt convince in the role!
And always remember: Swing voters dont even vote on this issue. Its about other the economy and jobs health education and envirnoment.
lefty e
Wise words.
lefty e
The only time swing voters change votes on AS is when it is connected to security issues.
This is why Abbott has the military involved makes it easier to dress up as security.
The trick for Labor to defuse the issue is to attack the security aspect as ridiculous.
Easy for me to say how they do is of course the vexed question.
Desert Fox@117
And which of those letters is yours?
Bushfire Bill:
[I am yet to understand why the Greens prefer people to arrive in boats, rather than go through the other, more formal processes that other refugees do.]
I’m sorry BB but this is just wrong. It’s not a matter of preference, it’s a matter of reality. There are no “more formal processes that other refugees” follow. Unless you’re referring to those who con their way in on student and holiday visas and then once here seek asylum? Unfortunately, for Afghan and Iraqi refugees they don’t have this option as Australia refuses to issue travel visas, of any kind, to Afghan and Iraqi nationals. The only way for these people to seek asylum is to follow the process outlined in the Articles of the Convention.
As for the rest of your comment, I agree, Abbott was playing a sick political game with asylum seeker lives and the Greens were his enablers. My only nitpick is the Nauru solution aka Pacific Solution was challenged under Howard and the High Court upheld the policy.
As I noted in a comment last night, Labor could have completely neutralized asylum seekers as a political issue early in Rudd’s first term by shifting the focus of existing humanitarian migration stream to our own region and working with Malaysia and Indonesia to improve and strengthen their customs and border controls.
[Actions speak louder than words.]
In case you hadn’t noticed, Labor LOST the last election, in a grand thumping, and Bill Shorten is not the Prime Minister, nor does he command a majority in either House of Parliament.
It’s not a gotcha to point this out. It’s fact.
bemused
[ And which of those letters is yours? ]
I think it is “i” for idiot.
[The only time swing voters change votes on AS is when it is connected to security issues.
This is why Abbott has the military involved makes it easier to dress up as security.
The trick for Labor to defuse the issue is to attack the security aspect as ridiculous.]
Thats probably true Guytaur – and I suspect thats because the LNP *also* knows that border protection against defenceless refugees isn’t actually a major vote-turner in and of itself. Youve got to add BS security hype to the mix or it isnt that potent.
@joshgnosis: 10-flag presser coming up. http://t.co/Sd5EEZISl0
zoomster@155
Couldn’t agree more.
But now we keep putting off dealing with the consequences.
Singapore started building its system from nothing in the mid-1980s and now has a first class system which it continues to expand and develop. In the same time frame, what has been achieved in Melbourne?
I was struck by the negativity of one of the articles where it pointed out the amount of expenditure that would be needed (“it would likely be a major project to rival the East West Link or Melbourne Metro tunnel in scale and cost.” and than said “Try selling that one to the voters.”
I would happily undertake that selling job.
@TheKouk: The Australian dollar is ‘smashed’ and teetering over the US 70c precipice http://t.co/Yh9M4n3bJv
“@ABCNews24: PM Tony Abbott: A $30 million national campaign will tackle the problems associated with #domesticviolence #auspol #COAG”
@annajhenderson: Opposition frontbencher Stephen Conroy predicts “very close” vote on boat turn-backs at ALP conference http://t.co/Hv5WDsh2E5 @abcnew
@guytaur 188
Interesting from Conroy. I find it hard to believe that the numbers would not have been stiched up for this prior to going public though. Hopefully sanity prevails and turn backs are defeated, but I very highly doubt it.
[@ABCNews24: PM Tony Abbott: A $30 million national campaign will tackle the problems associated with #domesticviolence #auspol #COAG]
But to show where the Government’s priorities are, there is an $80 million national campaign to tackle the problems associated with a possible Labor win at the next election: the Tony Abbott Royal Commission.
TPOF
Its worse than that. This funding decision involved the input of four Labor leaders
“@BevanShields: NT chief minister says the territory is a “second-class citizen” and that’s why they’ve agreed to make it a state by 2018 #auspol #COAG”
[“Our setup is so insane, we even have UNHCR refugees taking boats here. Or theyll wait their whole lives in Indonesia.”]
I don’t care if they have to wait their entire lives in Indonesia… getting resettlement in a first world country is not a human “right”. They’ve already got safety in Indonesia.. STAY THERE.
We’ll take our quota from the camps in sub-Saharan Africa and camps in Asia
NT a State how many Senators will that be?
What I was saying yesterday about the ‘new’ Immigration Department.
sorry, forgot link:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/department-faces-biggest-aps-executive-exodus-in-three-decades-20150723-gidnhv
The SHYs of this world are an integral part of the political jigsaw which is Oz.
I guess the Greens have to make up their minds which party – one which has been social democrat since its inception, or the other, a reactionary party whose main goal is to keep Labor out of office, is more in tune with Green aspirations.
My view is that the Greens are political opportunists willing to hop into bed with any group to further their aims (quite legitimate in politics) but are a party of some care and little responsibility.
On the question of AS, essentially, my reading of Green policy is that it is miles too radical for the majority of the Oz electorate.
Not necessarily wrong in a moral sense, but totally unsellable to the vast bulk of Joe and Jane Oz voters.
Labour has the tough job or trying to balance the need to get into government, deal with the rights and wrongs of the boats and take away from Abbott a stick to hit Labor with as it tries to get rid of Abbott and his crew at the next election.
Nobody pretends this is easy.
@BernardKeane: COAG proposes new “be afraid”, “be REALLY afraid”, “be absolutely terrified”, “Election right now!” and “Abbott PM for Life” alert system.
[I think it is “i” for idiot.]
imbecile, ignoramus, inbred, insular, incompetent, illiterate, idolater, illogical, immature, inspipid, immodest, indecent, impaired, imposter, inflaming
Yeah i probably was his letter.
[We’ll take our quota from the camps in sub-Saharan Africa and camps in Asia]
Why are those camps so special? Why not do the same thing in our backyard? Are their refugees somehow better or more deserving than regionally persecuted peoples?
You cant answer these simple questions, because your position is inconsistent.