This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has new results from Newspoll and Essential Research to play with, smooths away last week’s movement to the Coalition to the extent of suggesting that Labor would more likely emerge at the head of the projected minority government. Labor makes three gains on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. A drop in the Greens vote is partly down to an unusually strong result in the last Ipsos poll washing out of the system, but there have also been some slightly softer numbers for them in polls released over the last fortnight. The model doesn’t quite yet know how to deal with the new-look Galaxy-conducted Newspoll, which has come in at the high end for Labor on the primary vote in its two polls so far, in contrast with the habits of the Newspoll of old. As a result, it’s not being weighted too heavily just at the moment. Hopefully new results from more established poll series with better-understood biases will help clear the air over the coming weeks. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have caused a further loss of skin for Bill Shorten, putting Tony Abbott with his nose back in front on preferred prime minister.
Furthermore:
• The sudden death of Liberal MP Don Randall on Tuesday will presumably mean a by-election will be held in his outer southern Perth seat of Canning at some point, perhaps in September or October, assuming there’s no early general election on the boil. Mandurah mayor Marina Vergone has been mentioned to me as a potential contestant for Liberal preselection, but all such talk at this stage is in the realm of speculation. Randall’s margin at the 2013 election was 11.8%, but a fair chunk of that appears to have been his personal vote – the Liberal two-party vote in the electorate’s booths was 7% lower at the March 2013 state election than at the federal election, compared with a 1% differential statewide. I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey yesterday.
• Michael Owen of The Australian reports Labor’s state executive in South Australia has initiated proceedings for federal preselections in the state’s three potentially winnable Liberal-held seats, together with all those held by Labor, where the incumbents are expected to be uncontested. Steve Georganas is the reported front-runner in Hindmarsh, which he held from 2004 until 2013 when he was unseated by current Liberal member Matt Williams, who sits on a margin of 1.9%. Potential nominees for Boothby and Sturt, respectively held for the Liberals by Andrew Southcott on a 7.1% margin and Christopher Pyne on a 10.1% margin, are respectively said to include Mark Ward, a high school teacher and Mitcham councillor who was narrowly unsuccessful in the Davenport state by-election in January, and Jo Chapley, an in-house legal counsel for Foodland supermarkets who performed strongly against Opposition Leader Steven Marshall in his seat of Dunstan at the March 2014 state election.
• The Australian last week published the regular annual Newspoll survey on expectations in respondents’ standard of living over the six months to come, and found 13% expecting them to improve, down three points on an improved result last year, a steady 22% expecting them to get worse, and 64% expecting them to stay the same, up four points.
• As well as the aforementioned Canning by-election article, my paywalled contributions to Crikey over the past fortnight considered the possibility of a double dissolution, moves at the state conference of Queensland’s Liberal National Party to strengthen state executive powers to reject preselection applications and disendorse troublesome candidates, and the inconsistency of the Greens’ poll results.
[Labor is selling it’s soul on this and both Shorten and Marles need to have a good look in the mirror and understand they are selling this Party out for the sake of hoping to get more votes.]
Will looking in the mirror win Australians over to the side of the asylum seekers?
lefty e@154
It is indeed a global issue.
My take on the conference is that the factions are so evenly split there will be a lot of give and take. The left may get a climate change target they like and the right will get the turnback policy and Palestine gets a brave mention.
[A less than good performance in the Canning by election will be his undoing.]
What Canning by election? Abbott will be crapping his dacks on the risk of a by election. Shorten would be welcoming it. There won’t be a by election for many months and possibly none at all unless Abbott can feel confident about the outcome. Abbott will know even a really tight win might be enough to trigger a spill on his position. Shorten would probably have to have a swing to the Libs to have such a thing happen to him.
Forgive my innocence, but why do turnbacks, if they exist (and Dutton seems to be admitting that they do), why do they have to be kept secret?
Giles is ringmaster of the three ring circus and he wants to turn the Circus into a State?
They should just shut the joint down.
[lizzie
Posted Thursday, July 23, 2015 at 1:35 pm | Permalink
Forgive my innocence, but why do turnbacks, if they exist (and Dutton seems to be admitting that they do), why do they have to be kept secret?]
Because. That’s why.
Boerwar
About the level of Dutton/Abbott think, then.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/warning-voters-will-abandon-labor-over-boat-turnbacks-as-left-thrown-refugee-sweetener-20150723-giijl1
Have a look at this and read the comments and the poll down the bottom of the page.
“”The bigger question is will the public accept what he is doing.””
You will be surprised how many people don’t want open slather when it comes to mass AS boat arrivals.
I’m on both sides of the AS argument. I think the LNP have dog whistled this issue out of proportion and we have trashed the U.N. conventions in the process. Unfortunately though, they have succeeded in cultivating the arsehole vote while at the same time making it palatable for the center by stopping deaths at sea. The fact that our approach instigated the sabotaging of dilapidated boats, and that the treatment of AS is kept out of sight, doesn’t seem to matter to the electorate.
It would be nice to think the political debate could be elevated, but where is the gain in that for Abbott? It has reached the point where a rational debate cannot be had, and in that sense I agree that the argument has been lost. Unfortunately democracy doesn’t always have the most rational outcomes.
1934
Labor keeping present policy and opposing turn backs is not open slather. I refer you to the many zoomster arguments as to why this is not the case.
guytar
That’s not how numerous people see it!.
[My take on the conference is that the factions are so evenly split there will be a lot of give and take. The left may get a climate change target they like and the right will get the turnback policy and Palestine gets a brave mention.]
Exactly. The inner city left will have their 50% RET and ETS, along with dramatically increased refugee intake numbers and increased foreign aid and in return they get to make a bit of noise about turnbacks before it’s adopted by the National Conference and then fall into line on the party policy which will then be endorsed by caucus binding every member.
You will hear no more of it then except by Greens trying to pry off some votes at the left edge and government drones trying to scare swingers who have abandoned SS Abbott into climbing back on board the sinking ship.
Try as they might they won’t turn it into an important election issue. Most people will accept that their is a broadly bipartisan position on it and vote according to economy and other issues that affect them personally (exactly as Shorten wants and Abbott dreads).
Those who are fixated on the issue to the exclusion of all others will have the option of supporting an opposition whose policies including increased refugee intake and better standards of accountability is demonstrably better than the incumbent, or supporting Abbott on this and enjoying all of the ‘benefits’ of that choice in every other area of governance as well. It shouldn’t be too hard a decision to make.
1934
Well all that means is Labor has done a poor job of explaining and letting the LNP arguments win.
I don’t agree with the whole open slather bit but those arguments are not valid especially after Rudd Mk 2.
guytar
Well just wait and see!.
[“Our asylum seeker policy is wrong but if we want to win a long term war then we need to step back and change the way we fight.”]
You lost the war a long time ago champ… the day the boat smashed on the rocks of Christmas Island.
The left remind me of that Japanese guy that was on a remote island for 30 Years after WW2 ended still fighting the good fight.
You lost already, the left lost and you were wrong. 1200 dead people in the Timor Sea say so.
The point is, and Labor and he know it, ‘Boats’ (and by association national security) is the only straw which keeps Abbott afloat.
Labor, by moving to use the turn around tactic is essentially extending its own hard line set up by Rudd just before the last election. No inconsistency I can see in this that I can see.
In doing so, one half of the straw will be taken away from Abbott. He will still wrap himself in a dozen flags and look like a fool in his combat party clothes but this has nothing to do with genuine leadership.
When Labor gets back one would hope it will be honest with the electorate (though the dishonesty of the LNP does not seem to bother large swags of the electorate at the moment) and tell the country what is going on.
mimhoff@209
I know we’ve lost (I’m no longer pulling the same arguments I would use the last umpteenth times we have a debate on boats) but why have we thrown the towel and gone with Abbott’s solution?
Why can’t we fix up Nauru, Cambodia or Manus and the secrecy around it? At least make the process better. We’ve had a boat arrive in WA just a week ago despite all these turnbacks.
If we have to use the tough love approach, at least try to address it at the source first.
[Well all that means is Labor has done a poor job of explaining and letting the LNP arguments win.]
If you are putting all your hopes onto Labor to win the argument, it is a good way to keep losing the argument.
You don’t pick a fight, particularly one as emotionally charged as AS if you have no way of winning on some points.
The Libs think secrecy is important to stop boats so they highlighted every arrival and even put up billboards about it.
MTBW
[I gather you are talking about the numbers in the caucus or at the National Conference.
The bigger question is will the public accept what he is doing.]
Yes, I’m talking about the National Conference but I’m sure they know it will win them net votes as well. They will lose some to the Greens but get most back on prefs.
[ I refer you to the many zoomster arguments as to why this is not the case.]
Provide some links then.
Saying ‘refer’ to this is not going to get people to scroll back.
daretotread@240
Yes, a determination to fight an election on grounds of Labor’s choosing often generates such histrionics.
Too bad.
The last 3 Labor leaders(if you include Rudd 2.0) have promised to stop the boats before an election.
They failed miserably… but this is the policy they took to 3 Elections.
Labor has been extremely dishonest regarding boats when making promises to the Australian people. Bill is now the Fourth Labor leader in the last few years to promise to stop the boats by taking tough measures to an election.
Of course Australians are wary of Labor promises when it comes to the boats because they have been shown to be push overs and weaklings, time and time again.
Perhaps the left are correct here and Labor should be honest and take their open borders policy to an election and finally let the punters decide once and for all?
Ctar
I am relying on people’s memory. This is as recent as the last thread from last night in the many arguments against AS.
If someone has that poor a memory then I will go and find one of the arguments zoomster put. However I do not think most here have a big problem with memory so I did not include quotes.
TBA
Secrecy is all Abbott not Labor Not Green Not Xenophon Not Palmer etc.
Be proud of the policy you support. Tell us what is happening with the Vietnamese Boat People.
Shorten with this announcement will be able to neutralise AS and boats as an issue at the next election.
Labor has already put out policies on the RET and the ETS as well as a promised review of Super, Negative gearing and Multi nationals not paying their share of tax.
These are the grounds Labor is choosing to fight the next election. I think they are choosing their issues well.
Boats would always be a hysterical distraction. Shorten is steering the Party very well atm and positioning them for winning the election due next year.
Any that don’t want to get on board can please themselves in their impotence.
What the recent Vietnamese arrivals demonstrate is that all the guff we hear from some about how the boat people who arrive in Australia (as opposed to the refugees who arrive through normal processes) are symptoms of growing global unrest, etc, etc. is largely nonsense.
Vietnam (which is still ruled by the same bunch of people that the baby boomers marched in the streets to support) is a long way from being the most open or democratic society in the world. But it’s pretty much the same place politically as it has been for a long time now. There’s no significant new political crackdowns or social unrest taking place there.
What brings boat people to Australia is opportunity here, not a requirement to “flee” from where they are. Getting on a boat does not increase your priority as a refugee, but – thanks to a succession of court rulings over many years, it massively increases your chances of resettlement in a highly-desirable first world country: ie, Australia.
[I know we’ve lost (I’m no longer pulling the same arguments I would use the last umpteenth times we have a debate on boats) but why have we thrown the towel and gone with Abbott’s solution?]
Turn back the boats and do it transparently? – that might actually make for some ugly images. Allow people to make records of what happens in detention centres. right now its technically illegal to keep a diary about working in a detention centre.
I don’t know what the situation is with detention centre employees reporting sexual harassment or commenting on abuse or harassment or bullying of other employees let alone detainees. It seems as tho its illegal. If true that is insane imo.
As bad as it all is the worst thing is the secrecy. We don’t know what is happening – we don’t know what is being done in our name. When we start asking the government to keep secrets from us then we really have betrayed our democracy. That is a massive issue imo. if Shorten is going to remove the secrecy then its better than what we have now.
And if we have to take small steps to get back some humanity then we have to take small steps.
Thats how I see it. we have to take small steps, not just to get our humanity back but to actually protect our democracy and our free society from creeping fascism.
gt
[I am relying on people’s memory.]
Lots of commenters don’t live and die by each comment on here.
[“Be proud of the policy you support. Tell us what is happening with the Vietnamese Boat People.”]
Sure… no problem.
They are currently being escorted back to Vietnam. Just like the last boat. That wasn’t so hard now was it?
[232
MTBW
Labor is selling it’s soul on {asylum seekers arriving by boat} ]
Whatever.
Labor, and the broad centre-left, are facing a brutal political reality, and have to figure out a solution that does not involve letting boats through.
While the right are by far the main guilty party on this, the centre-left also have to take a big chunk of the blame for the current situation by letting it get out of hand on their watch (2007-13).
Most voters don’t give a flying fig about the subtleties of this. They just see simple raw numbers, however bogus and beaten up, showing how many boats/refugees arrived, and under whose watch. They also don’t understand how an isolated island continent can have such trouble stopping a few leaky boats, and quickly reach the conclusion it is due to nothing more than a lack of political will in the government of the day.
I suspect that the boats/refugees themselves are not a major issue for the voters, but see it more as a proxy for how well the government is managing security issues.
The voters have made it crystal clear they want the boats stopped. Why doesn’t matter anymore, it is simply no longer possible to have a rational public discussion on it in Australia.
Don’t like it any more than you, makes me sick to the bottom of my stomach that it has all descended into this appalling farce. But continuing to fight this battle – especially from opposition – sucks up a vastly disproportionate amount of limited and precious public debate space, which plays straight into the hands of Abbott & his plutocratic backers, and is a textbook example of political insanity.
If you enjoy being in impotent opposition, and guaranteeing a far worse deal for refugees generally and the boat delivered ones in particular, then carry on with this self-defeating fight. Otherwise, make the hard compromises the real world demands to neutralise this issue and get into government, when at least you will be able to deliver a less obnoxious version of Turn-the-boats-back™.
🙁
TBA
You lie. Peter Dutton just asked about it could not answer.
tehehehe
Dutton’s presser; instead of welcoming the new bipartisan approach to boat turnbacks offered by the ALP leader, he is immediately poo pooing the idea, with the excuse that Shorten won’t do it.
“This is our pet rock, not yours, and we are not sharing with you. And don’t think you can pick up any old rock and call it the same. Only we are allowed to have pet rocks. Yours is just a plain old stone.”
Shorten does not know what he is doing? Yeah, right.
Ctar
Then they can just ignore the comment or go and look. zoomster has made these argument for years and only a new arrival would not have read at least one of them.
Just Me
Point taken but it is hard to take/
We have all many times denigrated the Libs for their callousness and now we seem to be taking the same route.
As you said this is very hard to take for me I thought we were better than that.
[push overs and weaklings]
You are so desperate to make it black and white it just makes you look dumb and dumber.
We are dealing with people, many have suffered through unimaginable trauma. And those fortunate enough to have been born in the first world stand in their navy boats staring down a junket full of the desperate and unfortunate and your ONLY answer to the problem is;
[tell em to F off, dont doubt the strength of our will. Go back! But if you do get through we will put you in a tent and abuse you some more]
Tough guy. Really tough.
Hang on, you are doing for their wellbeing you say. Of course, how did i miss that. Oh how sweet and noble of you.
guytaur
Please have mercy on a tired brain. By the time I have filtered out Greece, TBA and its fellow travellers, and scrolled past the everlasting gripes by some familiar posters, it’s bloody hard to remember the exact words of 12 hours ago.
So I always like a short repetition to assist me (this liking does not apply to a copy of the whole post, as some -nudge, nudge, wink, wink- are in the habit of doing.)
lizzie
Just think back to the Greens policy = Open Borders arguments. In the process of those zoomster has argued the case of why current ALP policy is not Open Border.
Shorten is stalking Abbott. He is going to get him. Abbott is shyte-scared of Bill. Tony thinks that if he wraps enough Australian flags around him he will be safe. He is about to get the thumping he has deserved all his life, but instead of Mum’s hairbrush or Dad’s slipper, it is going to be a great lump of 2 x 4, in public, for all the world to see.
But being the sociopath he is, he won’t learn anything from it. They never do. He didn’t when PMJG gave him a steel cap up the kyber.
The next election really is very simple.
Does the country want a government that isn’t at continual war with reality, that accepts science and economics and stuff and lets these guide their decision making, that believes in stuff like education and health and that these should be available to all not just the rich, that doesn’t see the environment as simply a quarry to be dug up and shipped overseas, and that see people in their diversity as worthwhile individuals that should be provided with assistance where required and opportunities to flourish in whatever ways they choose?
OR
Does the country want a government of fear and intimidation, that is driven by ideology and schoolboy fears, that sees no values other than those measured in dollars, that sees cooperation as weakness and conflict as it’s raison d’etre and let the devil take the hindmost, a government that aims for inequality and sees those different than them as enemies to be defeated and controlled and denied access to the things they reserve for their own kind?
That’s the choice we face. We faced the same choice at the last election and we fucked it up largely because the right choice was too busy arguing over who got to be captain. I can sympathise with those who feel strongly about how we treat asylum seekers, I disagree with them in many ways, but I certainly agree with the response to treat human beings with dignity. But in the end that is a complete sideline issue. It can only distract from the real question which is why Abbott and co are so very desperate to put it front and centre.
Labor are being smart by pushing it back to the sideline where it belongs. Once we have a government that looks much more like option 1 above rather than the option 2 government we’re lumbered with at the moment we will have opportunities to revisit some of these sideline issues and positions will evolve as they always do. Until then anyone who is saying they won’t at least send a valid preference Labor’s way on this one issue alone brings just a little joy to Abbott’s black heart.
Re TBA @283: They are currently being escorted back to Vietnam. Just like the last boat. That wasn’t so hard now was it?
And you know this…how? Do you have connections inside the Navy or ‘Border let’s play soldiers Force’? You might end up doing serious jail time for revealing state secrets.
guytaur
I wasn’t really joining the borders discussion, just arguing for mercy.
Ratsak
The reason I think Labor has gone with option is so they don’t set the policy in concrete and have room to move when the truth of what is going on is revealed.
DF and TBA may actually be right in that Labor is not wedded to cruelty and inhumane treatment.
However even if they are things can change. For now I think the climate change policy is more important as it addresses one of the predicted core issues of AS numbers in the future.
I don’t think Labor under Shorten will engage in any revenge Royal Commissions, but I do think in government that they will have a peek inside Pandora’s box marked ‘Sovereign Borders’. As long as nothing too ugly pops out they’ll keep the lid on it. But if there’s some really obvious misdeeds and abuses of the law then just maybe an RC will come about.
Would be most unfortunate for someone like a past immigration minister who had taken the Party Leadership in opposition to explain coming up to the 2019 election, but I’m sure he’d agree it’s important for these issues to be thoroughly investigated and the proper lessons learnt.
We use around $20 of gas but our bill fluctuates between $100-$120. The supply charge gets us.
[Household gas prices will soon surge by 30 per cent, according to new research by ANZ, with the price rise also having the potential to send parts of Australia’s already struggling industrial sector out of business.
ANZ said the average rise in retail gas prices is one of the likely impacts of a massive expansion in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports over the next five years.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-23/household-industrial-gas-prices-to-surge/6642976
While more women are dying at the hands of their partners, the number of homeless is growing, aborigines are being turned off their land, transport system is cactus, medical treatment is hit or miss depending where you live, and on and on…
Tony Abbott is very happy for the voters to concentrate on his border policy and ignore all his other stuff-ups.
If the Labor National Conference does not back Shorten on his new boat policy, his position as Leader would seem to be untenable. He would at least be humiliated.
I suspect, like all ALP policies, the numbers have already been stitched up.
This weekend is a great opportunity for Labor branch members in Melbourne to attend the Conference.