Fairfax has gotten in early-ish with the results of its latest monthly Ipsos poll, which is well in line with recent form in having Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, up from 53-47. The primary votes have Labor up one to 36%, the Coalition down one to 38%, the Greens steady at a still unusually high level of 16%, and Palmer United scoring one of their occasional showings at 2% rather than the more common 1%. Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 43-39 to 45-39 – approval ratings should be along later. A question on preferred Liberal leader has Malcolm Turnbull leading on 41%, Julie Bishop on 23% and Tony Abbott on 15%. Further findings: 69% support for same-sex marriage with 25% opposed; 58% believe the government is doing too little on climate change, with 32% opting for about right.
UPDATE: The approval ratings are interesting in showing a recovery for Bill Shorten, who is up four points on approval to 39% with disapproval down six to 49%. Tony Abbott on the other hand is mired at 59% disapproval, and down one on approval to 35%. Shorten has consistently done relatively well on net approval in Ipsos, which is presumably related to its lower uncommitted ratings. ReachTEL, it seems, gets still more positive for Shorten by eliminating an uncommitted option altogether.
UPDATE 2: The respondent-allocated preferences result records Labor’s lead blowing out all the way to 56-44, after being equal with the headline figure on 53-47 last time. As this scatterplot shows, there has been a strong trend away from the Coalition on preferences in respondent-allocated polling conducted since the 2013 election. Contributing factors include a rise in the Greens’ share of the non-major party vote, and the Palmer United collapse.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average swims against the tide in recording a small shift in the Coalition’s favour, reducing the Labor lead from 53-47 to 52-48. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up one), 38% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The most interesting of the supplementary questions relates to approval of government ministers, which delivers an excellent result for Julie Bishop of 56% approval and 22% disapproval, with Malcolm Turnbull close behind at 47% and 24%. Bottom of the table of seven by some margin is Joe Hockey, at 31% and 48%. Other questions register a conviction that a re-elected Coalition would introduce laws like WorkChoices (44% likely versus 26% unlikely), and a belief that not enough is being done to tackle climate change (53%, versus 24% for doing enough and 7% for doing too much).
“Economic treason”, Julie Bishop?
She’s come unhinged 😀
[The reason the government is focussing on the FTA, by the way, is because I’m told by those who know that union TV ads about labour provisions are biting.]
Oh come on. This government is not so obvious and one dimensional as all that are they? [/sarcasm]
Abbott is doing his usual trick of answering a question that wasn’t asked.
[The reason the government is focussing on the FTA, by the way, is because I’m told by those who know that union TV ads about labour provisions are biting.]
That’s good to hear, for all sorts of reasons.
Has Joe managed to quote a single figure that is real or undistorted ?
What is the booted out tally for the day ? Must be getting up to Bronnie levels.
Have to say the PM is clever sneaky in his twisting questions.
LU
[You suggest interrupting Dinosaur Train with that nonsense? I hope the toddlers of the country don’t hear about it, they will hunt you down and scream at you.]
You’re right. I have four grand nieces who live nearby and visit multiple times per week.
Having Pepper Pig on endless rotation bores me bats#it!
“@ItsBouquet: Abbott: (hysterically) “It’s actually a criminal offence to attack a serving commissioner”.
#qt”
[Have to say the PM is clever sneaky in his twisting questions.]
Fraudulence is one of the man’s few redeeming qualities.
[Boiled Egg Liker
Boiled Egg Liker – @glengyron
Bit of a different ride for Kathy Jackson in Federal Court versus the Union Royal Commission. #JustSaying #Turc #auspol
7:32 PM – 18 Aug 2015]
teh
[She’s come unhinged ]
Was she ever ‘hinged’?
ratsak
Yup. I have heard that winning debating contests has nothing to do with the truth.
Don’t think this speaker is any better.
Doesn’t matter about the Government’s tricksy answers in QT. The media take-out is that they’re under pressure on Heydon, FTA, Leaks, Coal lovers and more!!!!!
For what it’s worth, the coal slated to be mined from Carmichael is not the right grade to be used in steel production.
As far as I am aware the only current alternative to coking coal would be via wood (charcoal). Allegedly electrolysis is another theoretical solution, but would not be available for another 20 years. Experience says that whenever a breakthrough is 10+ years away they tend to be 10+ years away forever (maybe I am a bit cynical).
CTar1@1862
Only with a loose pin, which are easy enough to dislodge.
Economic treason is siding with major international mining companies against the Australian taxpayer, methinks
QT looks like being a complete farce today.
So business as usual.
Re: the gutting of the EPBC Act:
lol
[Having Pepper Pig on endless rotation bores me bats#it!]
There we go, she saves my life some days! 🙂
[Labor MP Ed Husic told Sky News this morning that it was unlikely the legislation would pass given it was being led by Brandis.]
Noice backhand!
lizzie
Yep. Also ‘redefining’ the wording of the moot in formal debating in clever ways scores ‘bonus points’ . Especially if it does a black = white .
Looking at the Canning 2PP swing of about 11% to the ALP to get to around 50:50 and the Federal BT swing to the ALP since the 2013 election of 7.2% I was reminded of the heady days in mid 2007 when the ALP was enjoying a 10% swing since the previous election and leading polls with a 2PP in the mid to high 50s.
As a result the COALition initiated in its final days a ‘firewall’ strategy aimed at protecting their previously ‘safe’ seats that had up to a 10% margin – like Canning is now.
So I looked at the last 8 Newspolls immediately prior to the 2007 election.
Here the are – ALP 2PP, heading to the election.
56
56
58
54
53
55
54
52
The ‘narrowing’ – from a swing of 10%+ with a lead 6%+ decreasing to a mere 2% lead for a swing of 4.8%.
Then the election with a win at 52.7%
Currently we have BT giving the ALP a swing of 7.2% – not as favourable as a month out from the election in ’07
Currently the ALP have a BT lead of 3.7% – about half of the lead a month before the ’07 election.
Lessons to be learned?
Kevin’s hair is looking very glossy.
Re Tielec @1866: nuclear fusion reactors have been 30 years away since the 1950s.
Bill sounding confident.
Shea,
Not really. Each election has it’s own dynamic. This will (barring the Libs deciding they can’t face it) be the first where Tony Abbott is seeking re-election as Prime Minister. It would be very brave to assume any precedent provides much of a guide for that.
We could easily have a ‘widening’ as people realise the party isn’t going to turn to Turnbull and Shorten isn’t a scary proposition.
He really is losing it:
[TONY Abbott has accused Bill Shorten of being a “smirking phoney” and “two-time assassin” as the prime minister stepped up attacks on Labor in parliament.
MR Abbott dismissed a question from the opposition leader by saying he wouldn’t accept lectures on ministerial solidarity from Mr Shorten.
“That smirking phoney over there, that assassin, the two-time Sussex Street assassin … that is this person who now seeks the trust of the Australian people at the next election,” he said of the Labor leader.
]
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/abbott-labels-shorten-phoney-and-assassin/story-e6frfku9-1227489950348</a.
[ Currently the ALP have a BT lead of 3.7% – about half of the lead a month before the ’07 election.
Lessons to be learned? ]
1: regardless of the polling, the next election result is no certainty. There are ways the Libs could come back, they are just militantly ignoring them for now. 🙁
2: at the moment we are looking at the highest probability in a long while of a first term Govt getting dumped by the electorate. 🙂
3: at the moment i would rather be in the ALP’s position than the LNP’s. 🙂
Abbott doesn’t want another budget- he is good at political campaigning and simplicity- He’ll try and box his way through. It going to be an ugly few months ahead!
[That smirking phoney over there, that assassin, the two-time Sussex Street assassin…]
He knows Bill is a Victorian, right?
I think the last 3 posters 1877/8/9 raise valid points especially imacca’s #1 …. and #3.
[ {The Prime Minister} dismissed a question from the opposition leader by saying he wouldn’t accept lectures on {insert subject of choice here}. ]
Sounds familiar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOPsxpMzYw4
You will never match the original, Tones.
Losing it some more:
[
‘Insulting Commissioner Heydon a crime’
3:33PM JARED OWENS
Tony Abbott has warned Labor MPs that it is a criminal offence to attack the royal commissioner Dyson Heydon.]
Libertarian Unionist
Sometimes he forgets it’s no longer Madam Speaker, too. 😉
[Australia joining airstrikes in Syria would not be a ‘game changer’ against IS, senior military figure says]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-19/australia-joining-airstrikes-in-syria-not-a-game-changer/6708782
So we’re just flying around in Middle East bombing things for practice?
[“@ItsBouquet: Abbott: (hysterically) “It’s actually a criminal offence to attack a serving commissioner”.]
Good news for Gillian Triggs! Oh.. not THAT kind of commissioner.
[Tony Abbott has warned Labor MPs that it is a criminal offence to attack the royal commissioner Dyson Heydon.]
So what about attacking Gillian Triggs?
Re 1873, 1879 and others on lessons to be learned.
You have to remember the idiosyncrasies of the comparison campaign too.
Howard was a good campaigner…
[Environmentalists are forcing companies to obey the laws of Australia. OUTRAGEOUS]
what’s more they are forcing ministers and governments to obey the laws.
why hasn’t Hunt had to resign for being found to have deliberately ignored advice and hence either through corruption or incompetence BROKEN THE LAW. He is a member of party that received at least funding direct from $50,000 from adani mining. he did not do his job to their advantage. This looks like corruption or incompetence – either way he should resign. from what I can hear, he has not been asked a question in parliament or asked to resign over this.
[So we’re just flying around in Middle East bombing things for practice?]
Real targets are always more educational.
Remember that people still generally liked Howard, even right at the end.
Having his his political opponents locked up comes naturally to a fascist like Tony Abbott.
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 4m4 minutes ago
Brandis in QT confirmed govt is relying on a 4-year-old, draft, leaked Greenpeace doc to justify the EPBC changes ($) http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/08/19/call-in-the-green-army-threat-of-green-lawfare-takes-down-wait-only-two-projects/?wpmp_switcher=desktop …
Libertarian Unionist #1881
[That smirking phoney over there, that assassin, the two-time Sussex Street assassin…
He knows Bill is a Victorian, right?]
My guess is Tony’s really talking about Turnbull.
[Remember that people still generally liked Howard, even right at the end.]
They still do. Like a champion player that plays one too many seasons he just had passed his UBD.
I agree with imacca’s #1 but would add;
1: all of the ways to do it (that don’t rely on Black Swans and wishful thinking) involve getting rid of Abbott.
2: there are probably enough RWNJs in the party to hang onto Abbott all the way to defeat (see SSM debacle)
3: even if they do axe Abbott the RWNJs will prevent any significant reset of policies that would help draw a line under the Abbott failure.
You can never say never, but each month with another set of bad polls, leaking, disunity and no vision is another nail in their coffins.
[‘Insulting Commissioner Heydon a crime’
3:33PM JARED OWENS
Tony Abbott has warned Labor MPs that it is a criminal offence to attack the royal commissioner Dyson Heydon.]
Rule 1: Abbott will always over reach
@ratsak/1898
Insulting us is a crime, it’s called treason.
[ even if they do axe Abbott the RWNJs will prevent any significant reset of policies that would help draw a line under the Abbott failure. ]
That is probably their biggest problem. They will have a spring in their step if they manage to work themselves up to getting rid of Abbott. And…and anyone but Abbott bounce in the polls.
Likely followed by a “shit they are still the same incompetent geese” drop in the polls, particularly if they have to do another budget before an election. 🙂