BludgerTrack this week splits the difference between two very different poll results – a dire one for the government from Ipsos, and a much better one from Essential Research – to record next to no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining but not significantly improving on their very substantial gains over the last month. However, the state-level results have been favourable to Labor to the extent of adding two to the seat projection, namely one in New South Wales and one in Victoria. While Essential dampened any shift on voting intention this week, only Ipsos provided new numbers for the leadership ratings, which accordingly see a solid lift in Bill Shorten’s position, such that he has overtaken Tony Abbott on both net approval and preferred prime minister.
Fans of new content are advised to look carefully below this post, where they will find a belated account of the latest Tasmanian EMRS state poll, the regular Seat of the Week, and a reupholstered post on the all-important Canning by-election.
FWIW, which isn’t much, I only ever met one fairly senior military officer, a captain I think. Didn’t go much on him, he exuded an attitude I’ve seen & disliked in many people used to authority, not just the military. A sort of “I’LL decide whether you live or die” aura.
England all out. Decision on whether Aust enforces follow on.
[Fess – at best hastie has been hasty and selective in his finger pointing.]
Yes, highly partisan. His remarks go over well in a room full of luvvies, but I feel he’d do well to ditch them for the campaign, as I’m sure he’s already been advised.
Follow on:
1. Avoids the embarrassment of having Michael Clarke bat again
2. Avoids the risk of a freak couple of days of rain blowing the win and making it a draw
Follow on – because the bowlers have had a good nights rest and have not done much bowling today.
I think the blog world started at Margo’s blog and the ABC use to have an active blog, then everyone migrated to Palmer then his page closed and we came here.
I would guess this is one of the most active political blog comment sections in the blog world.
[mexicanbeemer
….I would guess this is one of the most active political blog comment sections in the blog world.]
It just lacks quality right wingers
I had a lefty friend who joined the ADF, became a Major, then exited as a RWNJ.
He remains a RWNJ.
BTW wasn’t the former member for EdenMonaro a SAS. IMHO he is the exception proving the rule.
And no-one has answered the question I posed this morning …… why do military types voluntarily do multiple tours of duty in war zones? Which of their buttons are pressed for them by being in a conflict zone?
BSA Bob
I have a very good friend who was a senior Air Force officer in his day. Very much a Liberal voter, but not narrow minded. I have no problems with people from the military, and it is a mistake to colour them the same way. A lot of them, especially in the senior ranks, are very smart, capable people who have great experience and skills to bring to the country in their post-military lives.
Like everyone else, they are just people. I make no judgements. But Hastie’s reported remarks do him no good service.
Australia enforce the follow on. Good move IMO.
TPOF:
And Mitch on a hat trick!
psyclaw
Mike Kelly was not SAS. He was a military lawyer, but he served in that role in some quite dangerous places, although not front line services:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Kelly_%28Australian_politician%29
BSA Bob@1501
A Captain in the Army is not a senior officer and I think the type of attitude you describe has been dying out. It has to as it won’t work any longer.
Interesting phenomenon military folk supporting right spectrum parties:
1. Right = individual (whereas army = collective)
2. Right = follow/support individuals rather than follow factions (Army = factions, i.e. do what the faction major tells you to do)
3. Right = look after yourself (whereas army = look after the collective)
Yet the right seems to attract the military folk
[quality right wingers]
oxymoron these days.
Happiness@1507
Your admission of your inadequacy is noted and appreciated.
Who are you calling a moron?
:devil:
psyclaw@1508
Their unit is sent and they go with it.
Mod Lib
[ Yet the right seems to attract the military folk ]
As I said before … a touch of homo-eroticism.
Bemused
You mean the 99.99 whatever % not in the military who would squeal like stuck pigs if Australia was ever threatened and needed a strong military and didn’t have it?
ummm no. I have no doubt that far from squealing like pigs as you suggest if this country was ever truly under real threat I and most others would do what was needed to defend this country.
And by real threat i dont mean what amounts to a caged hunt against non existant armys in Iraq or Afghanistan using the US’s trillion dollar war machine where we go along merely to provide cover against charges of US imperialism.
Your argument is also bunkum because if this country was ever under real threat it would take more than the 24000 troops we currently have to defend our massive country and we would be relying on some of the 99.99999% who sit behind a desk pushing paper, or teaching, or mowing lawns or collecting garbage etc to help out.
CTar1,
[Mr Hastie said he was in a helicopter above the scene
Double chopper.]
Was it one of these?
I think catch 22 sums it all up well.
frednk @ 1446
[Pompous git who is about to fall on his own petard.]
I try not to be pedantic, but I have to correct in this instance. One does not fall on one’s petard. That causes no harm. One is hoist on their own petard. As Shakespeare put it:
[For ’tis the sport to have the enginer
Hoist with his own petar’; and ‘t shall go hard
But I will delve one yard below their mines
And blow them at the moon]
A petard was a small mine. The engineer was the mine layer. Thus the engineer hoist with his own petard is a bomb maker blown up by their own bomb as they lay it for others.
See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petard
Labors smear campaign against the SAS hero running for the seat of Canning is disgraceful. This will lose Labor votes.
patent for aerial cum underwater drone:
http://pdfpiw.uspto.gov/.piw?PageNum=0&docid=09010678&IDKey=4DB613DB7FC6&HomeUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fpatft.uspto.gov%2Fnetacgi%2Fnph-Parser%3FSect1%3DPTO1%2526Sect2%3DHITOFF%2526d%3DPALL%2526p%3D1%2526u%3D%25252Fnetahtml%25252FPTO%25252Fsrchnum.htm%2526r%3D1%2526f%3DG%2526l%3D50%2526s1%3D9%2C010%2C678.PN.%2526OS%3DPN%2F9%2C010%2C678%2526RS%3DPN%2F9%2C010%2C678
Troll
How does it feel to smash your head against a brick wall because Labor (and us Poll Bludgers) refuse to take the obvious bait designed on the basis that the average person left of centre is as simple-minded as you?
TinyBruisedArsehole
[ Labors smear campaign against the SAS hero running for the seat of Canning is disgraceful. This will lose Labor votes. ]
Gets you hot, does he?
Stony Habbott@1520
Australia was unprepared for WWII and paid the price for it.
The old days of mass armies are gone and warfare is now highly technological. You can’t just stick civilians into a uniform and give them a rifle.
Yossarian looked at him soberly and tried another approach. “Is Orr crazy?”
“He sure is,” Doc Daneeka said.
“Can you ground him?”
“I sure can. But first he has to ask me to. That’s part of the rule.”
“Then why doesn’t he ask you to?”
“Because he’s crazy,” Doc Daneeka said. “He has to be crazy to keep flying combat missions after all the close calls he’s had. Sure, I can ground Orr. But first he has to ask me to.”
“That’s all he has to do to be grounded?”
“That’s all. Let him ask me.”
“And then you can ground him?” Yossarian asked.
“No. Then I can’t ground him.”
“You mean there’s a catch?”
“Sure there’s a catch,” Doc Daneeka replied. “Catch-22. Anyone who wants to get out of combat duty isn’t really crazy.”
There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one’s safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind. Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn’t, but if he was sane he had to fly them. If he flew them he was crazy and didn’t have to; but if he didn’t want to he was sane and had to. Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle.
“That’s some catch, that Catch-22,” he observed.
“It’s the best there is,” Doc Daneeka agreed.
[It just lacks quality right wingers]
There aren’t any pink unicorns, either, and they’re far more common.
[Mr Hastie said he was in a helicopter above the scene]
Whether he is more welcome being choppered into Canning as he was choppered into Taliban territory in Afghanistan time will tell.
[Player One
…As I said before … a touch of homo-eroticism.]
Not that there is anything wrong with that
TrueBlueAussie@1524
Oh? What citations for gallantry and medals does he have?
Jesus TBA you get more ridicules every day, truely laughable
I think you’ve reached that beyond Troll point.
TPOF@1512
The part of Kelly’s wiki under the heading “Capital Punishment ” has always been interesting to me.
Mod Lib
[ Not that there is anything wrong with that ]
If honestly acknowledged, of course not!
Why repeated tours? Various, I suggest:
1. Good career move. It is what you do. Others quit after the first tour.
2. The adrenalin hit. Doccos which involve documentary crews embedded with front line units in Afghanistan and Iraq generally get around to addressing the adrenalin hit when you get to shoot off your weapon or maybe get killed.
3. Low probability of being killed or injured in any one tour.
4. The money is excellent.
5. Home is where your unit is. It is who you are.
6. What else can you do for a quid?
The deterrents appear to be getting killed or wounded, IEDs, or the feeling that you are completely and utterly wasting your time because the war is not being won.
Be nice to TBA. He’s our pet troll. If he wasn’t here, there would probably be someone worse.
bemused @ 1518
[Their unit is sent and they go with it.]
I listened to a TED radio hour podcast (made by NPR) a few weeks ago where the speaker talked about the relationships that specialist US troops had on active service in Afghanistan were so intense that they missed them badly when they returned home.
To the extent that it is a choice, the reasons are quite complex – and often deeply psychological.
[1414
citizen
“I am now taking the skills I learned in the army and if elected will use them to be the best representative forthe people of Canning,” Mr Hastie said.
“I have not lived my life behind a desk pushing paper and talking about the concepts of freedom and democracy. I have acted. I have put my life on the line for this country and for that freedom.
“I have led under pressure and worked with honour, integrity, compassion and diligence. I have the strength of character to standup for what and who I believe in.”]
and…
[1420
TPOF
Watching the ABC news, I’m now fully confirmed in my mind that the cut off hand articles were seeded by the Liberal spin machine. It gives an opportunity to Hastie and the Liberals to remind everyone that he was heavily involved in military action in Afghanistan.
Anyone who thinks this will go down badly in Canning is a very naive lefty.]
Hastie has very clearly put himself up as a lethal weapon – as a self-described hero.
How will this play in Canning?
My guess is it will prove to be divisive. There will be enthusiasm from the base Libs – the ideologically receptive – but these are very far from being the majority of the electorate.
Then there are all those who are totally sick of Abbott….who cannot stand the games, the plain lies, the distractions, the conceits, the clearly faked up gimcrackery of it all.
If voters see this as a stunt, they will identify Hastie as a toy from Abbott’s dress-up trunk…as just another Abbott trick.
I suspect that one of the things voters really want more of is stunt-free politics.
Perhaps Abbott is going to use Hastie to re-sell himself as “real”…as the hard edge of “community safety”. He might well try. But what he’s done today is offer acute partisanship and blood stains. This is a very bad place to be taking Australian politics.
I reckon most voters will recoil from it….either because they don’t believe it, or, as likely, because they do.
I would have thought that Major Newman should have put politicos off the thought of Captain Hastie.
And that Colonel Nicolic, who does not temper mercy with justice, would have caused even more second thoughts.
Abbott rushes Hastie in where fools should fear to tread?
[1538
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Be nice to TBA. He’s our pet troll. If he wasn’t here, there would probably be someone worse.]
If TBA did not exist we would have to invent him – the stereotypical nasty Lib who is in fact even nastier than we imagine.
TPOF@1539
Yes, the camaraderie is quite strong even with those who do not experience active service.
I think it comes about partly because you really get to know your comrades and know you can rely on them.
[There aren’t any pink unicorns, either, and they’re far more common.]
😆
Even the Oz’s scribes have intoned that Canning is a ‘real’ rest for Abbott.
Hastie is a cleverly chosen candidate because he is achieving what Abbott desperately needs: people are talking about Hastie and not about Abbott.
(Pauses and regrets that BB does not appear to be able to join us with a boot strapping exegesis of the Hastie ploy.)
briefly
[ If TBA did not exist we would have to invent him – the stereotypical nasty Lib who is in fact even nastier than we imagine. ]
Not only nastier than we imagine, but nastier than we can imagine!
[It just lacks quality right wingers]
Much like the Parliament.
[I would have thought that Major Newman should have put politicos off the thought of Captain Hastie.]
Indeed!
And nice to see you again Boerwar. I hope you’ve been well.
confessions
Thank you. Have been off on some totally unearned R&R.
says a lot a the Liberals