The Courier-Mail has today published a Galaxy state poll for Queensland, which shows little change on the previous such poll in May in having Labor on 40% (steady), the Liberal National Party on 39% (steady), the Greens on 10% (up one) and Katter’s Australian Party on 4% (up one). This compares with election results of 37.5%, 41.3%, 8.4% and 1.9%. The headline two-party result is 52-48 to Labor, but two-party preferred is a vexed question for Queensland state polling, given the radically different behaviour of preferences between the 2012 and 2015 elections. Galaxy’s allocations are determined from a composite of past elections – the last three, I believe. Had it been based purely on the result from the state election in January, the result would be more like 54-46. Annastacia Palaszczuk is still performing strongly on personal ratings, with her approval down two since May to 57% and disapproval up one to 28%. Lawrence Springborg is down two on both measures, to 39% and 37%.
i really do not understand why they are not using respondent allocations from today, but rather that of the past 3 elections – which at that time the circumstances of the day meant vastly different dynamics that influenced preference decisions.
Given Annastacia Palaszczuk’s relatively low profile, this result would indicate that Abbott is still pulling the LNP down.
They can’t blame Newman any more but Springborg’s days will be numbered!
54 to 46 on last election pref’s is a very good result.
ausdavo @2
especially after the billy gordon scandal.
The real problem with the use of multi-election preferences is that it generates commentary claiming that the government has not received a honeymoon bounce when in fact by the normal standards of last-election preferencing it is up 3 points. (And by the way I get 54:46 by 2015 prefs as well.)
Now it may well be that those standards will not apply at the next election and do not even apply now, but that may also have been true of past comparative governments that got bounces. So we’re seeing reporting that this government is not getting a honeymoon when at least in primary-vote terms it is, albeit not an enormous one.
Kevin Bonham @4
had it won an outright majority and not have to deal with billy gordon, i don’t doubt the post-election bounce would have been far greater.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/strange-times-in-queensland-polling.html
Strange Times In Queensland Polling
My detailed assessment of recent Queensland state polling, posted mainly because the Courier-Mail’s assessment is rubbish.
5
Even if the ALP had won the same number of seats and still had to rely on Wellington, but there was no Billy Gordon issue, they would be polling far better. If the Billy Gordon issue flares up again, or there is some other issue calling into question the Government`s majority, the Premier should call a new election and take advantage of the Abbott Government`s unpopularity.
Thanks for the post, William, and the value-adding commentary, Kevin.
Seems Palaszczuk just has to keep her head down, appear competent, and repair some of the more pronounced mistakes of the previous administration and the next election is there for the taking. Particularly while the federal L-NP coalition are, ahem, doing their thing.
Some commentators suggest that Annastasia Palaszczuk is adopting the Campbell Newmans ‘operation boring strategy’. Operation boring is myth and a hoax- operation boring was brought by the Newman government after a bunch erratic arrogant decisions made by the Newman government that had burned 25-30 seats of their support. Operation boring was then brought in, but Operation boring could only hold the their current support it can’t win that support back and once the damage was done it was done.
Queenslanders don’t want ‘Operation boring’, they want good government which is transparent, accountable, and consultative. After Newman’s government to appoint Tim Carmody as chief justice, weaken and water down the CMC (CCC), and bring bikie laws that required motor bike riders to wear pink pajamas in prision and sack 14 000 public servants the public have had enough.
Palaszczuk is seen competent after cleaning up the Tim Carmody mess, cleaning out some of the LNP stooges running the CCC, winding back the bikie laws, putting more transparency to donations to political parties and providing a budget that payed down debt without selling assets. Palaszcuk is seen as consultative and transparent and the public won’t be going back to the LNP anytime soon.