Morgan has released its regular monthly SMS polling of state voting intention, which will be getting dedicated posts in future. The poll was conducted from Saturday to Monday, and the results for each of the states are summarised in turn:
New South Wales. The Coalition leads 57-43 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition, 25% for Labor and 17.5% for the Greens. This is the fifth Morgan poll since the March election, and no other pollsters have reported in this time. Labor’s result is the worst of the five, being 3.5% down on the last poll at the start of August, but it’s only made a one-point difference on two-party because it’s matched by a two-point increase for the Greens.
Victoria. Labor leads 57-43, after successive Morgan polls in late May, late July and early August had it at 56.5-43.5. This stability conceals steady movement away from the major parties on the primary vote, with Labor down 4.5% since the May poll to 39%, and the Coalition down 3% to 35.5%. The Greens have increased over each of the four polls from 12.5% to 16.5%. The Victorian component of the poll had a sample of 1123. It is the eighth such poll since the election, and no other pollsters have reported in this time (UPDATE: I beg your pardon, there was this from Newspoll – with thanks to Leroy Lynch).
Queensland. Labor is credited with a lead of 52-48, up from 51-49 in the early August poll, from primary votes of 38.5% for Labor (up 2.5%), 41.5% for the Liberal National Party (up 0.5%) and 12% for the Greens (down one). The two-party preferred appears to be based on previous election preferences, which is a very different approach from that taken by Galaxy, which combines preferences from the last three elections. Galaxy’s most recent poll of a fortnight ago thereby agreed Morgan’s two-party result, but did so on the basis of better primary vote numbers for Labor (40% to 39% for the LNP). Galaxy had a sample of 800, while Morgan’s latest was 877.
Western Australia. The major parties are tied on 50-50, after Labor led 51.5-48.5 in the early August poll, from primary votes of 42% for the Liberals and Nationals (up two), 34% for Labor (up one) and 15% for the Greens (down two from a particularly strong result last time). The only pollsters to report from Western Australia since the election have been Morgan and Newspoll, the latter of which had Labor leading 52-48 in its quarterly surveys for January-March and April-June. Morgan’s Western Australian samples are around 600.
South Australia. Very little change on the early August poll, with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on two-party (down from 51-49) from primary votes of 39.5% for the Coalition (steady), 33.5% for Labor (down half) and 14% for the Greens (steady). The first four Morgan polls this year, from January through to April, gave Labor leads of between 51-49 and 54-46, whereas the four since have all been with 1% either way of 50-50. Morgan’s polling this term has differed sharply from Newspoll’s in that the latter has had “others” on 21% or 22%, whereas the last eight Morgan results have ranged from 10% to 13%. The April-June Newspoll was much stronger for Labor on two-party preferred, crediting them with a lead of 54-46. Morgan’s South Australian polls have samples of around 600.
Tasmania. Morgan’s Tasmanian results come from samples of between 300 to 400, and have consistently been weaker of the Liberals than seems plausible. The latest result has them down 6% to 38%, with Labor up 4.5% to 35.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 21.5%.
Why are the Greens votes so high in Victoria and NSW? Otherwise most of the results are what’s expected, I’d think.
I live in Perth and find WA’s result both shocking and non-shocking.
Shocking because after 7 years of Liberal mismanagement, unwanted boondoggles, blow-out in debt and so many broken promises around public transport and amenities and a wasted mega-boom the Liberals would be as likely as not to win the next election. They literally could not have been more offensive and wasteful while in government.
Non-Shocking because this is WA – as deeply conservative at heart as any other part of Australia.
Victoria – “It is the eighth such poll since the election, and no other pollsters have reported in this time.”
There was a 58-42 Newspoll, taken over May & June in the old pre Galaxy style Newspoll had of asking state questions over a period of time amongst other Omnibus polling.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/06/23/newspoll-58-42-to-labor-in-victoria-2/
Baird unassailable. ALP primary close to 2011 levels.
Possum may be having a swipe at Morgan’s QLD results with these posts…
https://twitter.com/Pollytics/status/638963670144278528 (open to see the chart)
[Possum@Pollytics
Here’s Qld’s Two Party Preferred polling, from us. The only mob that knew what was happening last election #qldpol
4:36 PM – 2 Sep 2015]
https://twitter.com/Pollytics/status/638964918553710592
[Possum@Pollytics
Public pollsters again have their preferences wrong, like they did massively in 2015, and to a fairly decent extent in 2012 #qldpol
4:41 PM – 2 Sep 2015]
Unassailable , Italian for she’s a gonna sink.
Thanks Leroy, correction added.
Might be more to the Morgan results in Tasmania than you think, granted the sample size is too small to be sure. The latest ERMS poll had, Liberal 40, Labor 29, Green 21 and Ind 9. This poll was originally thought to be dodgy especially given the 9% independent.vote. However if you take into account ERMS over-rates Greens at the expense of Labor, it seems a Liberal primary vote of 38%-40% may be close to the mark.
It matters little for state elections as i suspect that if an election was held, people would change their vote to ensure a minority government didn’t get in.
My current tracking estimate for Morgan’s Tasmanian house effects is:
Liberal -3.5 Labor +2 Green +2.3 Other -0.8
At one stage it was Liberal -5 but the August Morgan at 44-31 (Liberal-Labor) accompanied by the August EMRS at 40-29 brought the estimate down.
At the moment I am just using EMRS (calibrated loosely off past elections) to try to calibrate the Morgans. I am not using ReachTEL because they have only done one state election and there was some evidence their house effect in the state was shifting depending on whether or not they allowed an Undecided response.
Generally I think Morgan SMS is a trashy poll (even ignoring sample size issues) and I’m also concerned about where EMRS is going as I think it is being hit by some of the landline-specific issues that plagued the old Newspoll in its last year or so. It concerns me that this might be making EMRS overstate the Green vote even more than it used to, which might also mean I’m underestimating how much Morgan do the same thing.
We have quite a lot of polling in Tassie compared to other states but making sense of it is difficult.
I want to find the clods still thinking of voting Liberal in SA and banish them over the border to WA. They are too dumb to live here.
[ The poll was conducted from Saturday to Monday, and the results for each of the states are summarised in turn:]
A minor point, I was polled on the Friday. Selected Lib and then Mike Baird.
Puff @ 10, we have too many liberal voters as it is in WA. They are your problem.
This is probably the appropriate place to mention the ALP wont be running a candidate in the upcoming Vic by-election for South-West Coast.
South-west Coast is a safe seat for Libs, but one that is slowly becoming more urbanized, it was 60-40 2PP at last election, but that was boosted by a very strong ‘thankyou and goodbye’ vote for Napthine at the last election.
The local branches where ready for this by election, had a previously endorsed candidate ready to go, had some money reserved. Got told to stand down.
So the previously endorsed ALP candidate is going to run as an independent, with the parties blessing.
In safe seats like this, you have to fight for every inch, slowly get people to tune in and take politics seriously.
But the damage is done now, no going back. Not being willing to ‘have a go’ will hurt the ALP brand down here for a long time.
That Green vote figure in NSW is a bit hard to believe, even as someone on the left side of the political spectrum.
The Labor vote is believable, however.
I don’t think its fair to reject the Tasmanian polls from Morgan and EMRS as suddenly being questionable, on the basis that Green support has recently climbed to quite high levels that is somehow not believable by some commentators. I do however greatly respect Kevin Bonhams political analysis in a general sense. Perhaps the next statewide ReachTel will clarify that notable poll movement.
The Green vote seems pretty consistent nationwide – touching 15% in most cases.
It is starting to look a little fixed at that level.
Coast@15
There isn’t any suddenly about it. EMRS has been getting the Green vote too high consistently for over a decade now, including in the leadup to the most recent state election – at which ReachTEL and Newspoll (to a lesser extent) also both had it too high. (EMRS have the excuse that they weren’t in the field in the final month, but I doubt that would have made any difference.) If Morgan have it at the same levels as EMRS, then most likely that’s because they have it too high too.
These polling surges in the Green vote in Tasmania happen about as often as Bill Murray gets out of bed in Groundhog Day, and with about the same percentage of happy endings come election time. Even in 2010 when they got 21.6% they had been polling 26.
It’s true that EMRS have a history of inflating the Green vote. But I bring you back to your comment where you say you are concerned EMRS is being plagued by the same landline problems that Newspoll had in its final year, and you believe Morgan might be returning a similar distorted result..inflating Green support more than traditionally do. You are talking about recent changes here, and whilst you may be correct that both polling companies might be overcharging Green support in the electorate, could it also not be possible that recent polls are showing a discernible Green rise? Wondering why you sway more strongly to the polling company problem scenario.
Coast@18
The two aren’t mutually exclusive. I believe the Greens have recovered somewhat from their election result, but certainly not to 21, and I’m doubtful about to 18. I’d put them on about 16, maybe 17.
My main reason for concern about EMRS is the unprecedented rise in “Independent”. Independent has been stable at 3-6% for a long time. Now it’s running at 6-9% (9 in the new poll) when indies polled 1.3% at the last election and when no independent is even known to be running. Can’t be explained away by disillusioned government supporters parking their vote, since Labor also had disillusioned supporters when in power many times without this indie surge. Might be explained by Lambie, but Tasmania has had other high-profile indies federally without that crossing into state intention.
If there is a problem with EMRS’ polling, then based on Newspoll’s experience it will inflate third-party voting generally. I’m far from sure this is the case, but I thought it was possible enough to be worth mentioning.