Two-party: full preference estimate
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| ANDREW HASTIE (Liberal) | 36933 | 54.4% | 54.8% | -7.0% |
| MATT KEOGH (Labor) | 30989 | 45.6% | 45.2% | +7.0% |
Primary vote
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| Liberal | 34291 | 46.4% | 46.7% | -4.4% |
| Labor | 26544 | 35.9% | 36.2% | +9.5% |
| Greens | 4479 | 6.1% | 6.0% | -1.4% |
| Palmer United | 2264 | 3.1% | 2.3% | -4.6% |
| Family First | 531 | 0.7% | 0.8% | -0.5% |
| Australian Christians | 2280 | 3.1% | 2.8% | -0.3% |
| Others | 3519 | 4.8% | 5.1% | +1.5% |
| Formal | 73908 | |||
| % of enrolled voters | 65.5% | |||
| % of projected turnout | 89.2% | |||
| Booths counted (of 46) | 46 |
Two-party: raw count
| # | % | Prefs | Pref. Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 40600 | 54.9% | 48.3% | -0.6% |
| LABOR | 33307 | 45.1% | 51.7% | +0.6% |
| Formal | 73907 | |||
| % of enrolled voters | 65.5% | |||
| % of projected turnout | 89.2% | |||
| Booths counted (of 46) | 46 |
City of Armadale booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 15490 | 49.2% | 49.2% | -9.3% |
| LABOR | 16025 | 50.8% | 50.8% | +9.3% |
| Booths counted (of 18) | 18 |
City of Mandurah booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 10868 | 58.3% | 58.3% | -3.3% |
| LABOR | 7765 | 41.7% | 41.7% | +3.3% |
| Booths counted (of 10) | 10 |
Other booths
| # | % | Proj. | Swing | |
| LIBERAL | 10575 | 59.5% | 59.5% | -6.7% |
| LABOR | 7199 | 40.5% | 40.5% | +6.7% |
| Booths counted (of 18) | 18 |
Concluding summary
In political terms, the result is anti-climactic, in that the swing is neither a triumph nor a disaster for either side. However, it’s interesting to note that the swing was concentrated in Armadale, given that a lot more suburban territory cut from the same socio-economic cloth sits beyond the electorate’s northern boundaries, in Hasluck and the newly drafted seat of Burt, both of which are marginal Liberal. Another standout factor from the results is that the non-major party vote was down on the last election, contrary to the usual by-election form. The drop in the Greens vote can only partly be explained by competition from Animal Justice and the Pirate Party, and the loss of two third of the Palmer United vote wasn’t entirely matched by an increase for other right-of-centre minor parties. Contrary to the indications of some polling, Labor’s share of preferences was essentially unchanged.
Live count commentary
10.15pm. Results above are final for the night, there evidently being no counting of postals this evening. The results include two pre-poll voting centres – Armadale, which is included in the booth-matching calculations as the centre was in use at the 2013 election, and Mandurah, which isn’t and wasn’t.
9.01pm. The Armadale pre-poll voting centre — which along of the PPVCs I’m including in my booth-matching results projections, since it’s the only one that was in use at the 2013 election — has pushed the Labor swing over 7%. It will be interesting to see if there’s a general pattern of Labor performing better on pre-polls, since part of the vote will have been cast before the leadership change. Conversely, this may just be the oft-cited Armadale swing in action.
8.44pm. Two more results added, typical of the whole in being a strong result for Labor from Armadale and a weak one from Mandurah.
8.41pm. Still to report: two large booths at Halls Head in Mandurah; two Armadale booths, plus two others are yet to report two-party preferred; and in the vicinity of Armadale, full results from Harrisdale, and two-party from Byford.
8.32pm. More Armadale-heavy data has added a further increment to the Labor swing, although outstanding booths from Halls Head in Mandurah may well rein it back.
8.27pm. The addition of some further results from Armadale, where the swing is approaching 10%, has added half a point to the projected Labor swing.
8.22pm. I’ve been progressively adding newly reporting booths without comment, there being no surprises.
8.02pm. A very soft result for the Greens, who have gone backwards, and the minor party vote in general. Modest though it may be, Labor has at least achieved its two-party swing off its own steam.
8.00pm. Contrary to my expectations, the results have come in at a bewilderingly fast clip. But the swing has stayed around 6%, and the impression of a swing strongest in Armadale and weakest in Mandurah has been consistent.
7.49pm. I strongly suspect the AEC has the Labor and Liberal vote in Boddington entered the wrong way round. Otherwise there’s been a 40% swing there.
7.42pm. Five booths in from Armadale and now and three for Mandurah, and so for the swing in the latter looks to be the smaller. Despite that, the swing projection has remained been pretty stable at around 6%.
7.32pm. Fair bit of surgery required there on my results display, but I think it’s in order now. The swing Labor looks to be headed for is about 6%. It doesn’t seem that their preference share has picked up at all.
7.18pm. A fairly solid 11 booths in now, and I’ve had the swing at around 8% for a little while now. Antony Green only says 6%, but he’s less aggressive than me in extracting projections from incomplete results.
7.10pm. Three booths have been added on the 2PP vote, and these results are now being used to project preference flows on to booths that have reported the primary vote only.
7.05pm. A bunch of booths in now, including a couple from the larger centres, and the swing is looking stable so far — but I’m still going off 2013 election preferences. I’ll sort that out in a minute.
6.53pm. Carcoola and Dandalup North booths added on primary vote — so still only booths from the smaller semi-rural centres.
6.35pm. Still a lot I’m trying to work out here, but we’ve got primary votes in from the Preston Beach booth, and from that very small data point I’m projecting a result in line with expectations.
6pm. Polls have closed, so welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Canning by-election count. The table below will be updated as the numbers are reported to track both the raw vote and projections based on booth-matching and preference trends. With 12 candidates in the count, progress might be a bit slow. There are some small semi-rural booths in the electorate, and we should be hearing from these first in about an hour.
[TPOF
…Hapless @ 246
Budget cuts.]
Well at least they are not showing endless repeats of the appalling Swans tonight.
Good bye Goodes- you have certainly been that.
Thanks for your service over many years.
WA Labor people will be rapt with the swing in the Armadale booths. They obviously ran a very good campaign there. Well done.
bemused,
Please read my #207. This is a pseph site, and I’m having fun with numbers. Whatever you are trying to say is getting quite tedious.
[Well at least they are not showing endless repeats of the appalling Swans tonight.]
Pretty harsh call. sydney seriously undermanned tonight and coming off a tough road trip to Perth. North only had to beat Richmond last week
Interesting, with 70,191 formal votes counted the ABC has the 2Pp swing as 6.7% and the AEC has the swing at 6.38%.
Question@253
You are taking a very limited data set to draw conclusions you are not entitled to draw. You might as well pull numbers out of your arse.
I cited the only similar case that I can recall in the last 20+ years and it was at odds with your ‘numbers’.
mexicanbeemer@219
City lawyer in electorate that’s mostly not really that demographic. Comes across as middle-class and short on rough edges.
Reckon running him in the by-election would do well for building his profile for a run at Burt.
Question@253
In any event my recollection was wrong and I have now looked up the Aston result in 2001.
I live in an adjacent electorate and Labor did expect to win Aston.
Piss off bemused,
you are a pedantic bore.
[City lawyer in electorate that’s mostly not really that demographic. Comes across as middle-class and short on rough edges.]
Probably better than many candidates WA Labor has thrown up lately. Remember these are the people who gave us Joe Bullock
Question@259
Bad attitude – must be a green.
bemused,
I am not “entitled” to use an actual number, to come up with a bit of polling symmetry, but you are allowed to use made up numbers to turn it into an argument.
Must be an idiot.
Looks like the ALP Base has returned but has not won over the newer areas around Perth
Question@262
And here I was thinking it was a discussion. Silly me.
Actually from the table you cited, it looks like there is a ‘sympathy factor’ of about 2.4 – 2.5% when a by-election is caused by the death of a member.
Apply that to Canning and the ALP did quite well.
Have been in Perth 7 years Ago for 3 Months and Travelled on the Armadale Train Line on Many Occasions and Always thought that area would be ALP leaning not sure but is State Labour represented in the area
With only the postals left to count, I think Labor can be pretty pleased with a 7% swing. Very good campaign in their stronger area around Armadale, and even the non-city booths seemed to swing nicely. Mandurah, especially southern Mandurah, is pretty good Liberal territory.
With the redistribution, I’d say at the next election both Canning and Burt will have representatives that broadly suit the composition of their electorate.
Damo, 265
[ Have been in Perth 7 years Ago for 3 Months and Travelled on the Armadale Train Line on Many Occasions and Always thought that area would be ALP leaning not sure but is State Labour represented in the area ]
It probably is, it has some of the strongest ALP booths in Canning
Damo
Labor holds the state seat of Armadale but that’s just part of the Canning electorate. There are solid Tory areas around Mandurah and the rest is rural and semi rural, hardly Labor country.
[And here I was thinking it was a discussion. Silly me.]
The next time we are “discussing” something, don’t tell me what I am “entitled” to say.
And I agree, a very good result for the ALP.
Question@269
I used the word “entitled”, which seems to bother you, in the sense that the data did not appear to support what you were saying.
Anyway, no offence intended.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/canning-anticlimax-live-plus-post-count.html
End of night wrap added: an unremarkable result
Very encouraging swing for Labor where it matters electorally – in the outer suburban more marginal areas. Local campaigns in places such as Dunkley would be boosted a bit by this result.
Thanks Kevin
Willia and Kevin when youb wake up from a well deserved rest
Told there is 20000 pre election votes to be counted ie before MT became PM, will these improve ALP vote?
William:
[“It will be interesting to see if there’s a general pattern of Labor performing better on pre-polls, since part of the vote will have been cast before polling day. “]
Do you mea before the coup?
William:
[“It will be interesting to see if there’s a general pattern of Labor performing better on pre-polls, since part of the vote will have been cast before polling day. “]
Do you mean before the coup?
A 9.25% swing on their primary vote is a very good result for Labor.
Looks like Shorten is safe until November
Looks a pretty good result for Labor.
The Libs will obviously claim it’s an endorsement for the change which I’d say is true up to a point. It’s certainly much better than they were looking at a week ago but probably not as strong as they were probably hoping, nor I was expecting.
Burt is looking a solid gain on this result.
Long way to go, but talk about this result somehow putting pressure on Shorten is fanciful.
William,
You write: “Armadale, which is included in the booth-matching calculations as the centre was in use at the 2013 election, and Mandurah, which isn’t and wasn’t.”
According to the AEC Mandurah did have a Prepoll Voting Centre in 2013 and in 2010. It was called Greenfields Canning PPVV. In 2013 it received 7172 votes and split 64/36 to Randall.
AEC report this year the 5985 counted so far split 61/39 to Hastie. That is a swing of 2.5% towards the ALP, less than the Mandurah booths overall.
[Anyway, no offence intended.]
In that case I withdraw my offence 🙂
More proof that albanese still wants the leadership http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/national/2015/09/19/albanese-unveils-vision-for-labor-in-power.html
All the pre-turnbull polling agreed that the result would be about a 10% swing. With a 7% swing, that means the ‘Turnbull Honeymoon’ is currently worth 3%. Not as much as the 2 polls we have so far are indicating.
Scott bale
The second rudd honeymoon was about 8%, remember
From the top of the previous Canning thread here are the Liberal 2PPs [rounded], 2013 preferences, from the various polls cited there in the sequence cited.
57
54
53
52
54
55
51
56
51
They pretty well cluster around the current 2PP of 54.4% with a couple above that, a few near par and a few below.
So overall the polls have, more or less within MOE, got the result reasonably accurately thus far and I would suggest they show a Turnbull factor of only a tad above zero.
I heard a rumour the Libs spent $1million on the campaign [can anyone confirm?], if so it would seem to be money pretty much wasted.
mari@274
Firstly there are not that many because many of them have already been counted last night (nearly all PPVCs were already counted).
Secondly nearly all the remainder are postals which normally lean to Coalition by a few points compared with on-the-day votes. Since the impact of the Turnbull change was unlikely to be much more than that, if even that, things should roughly cancel out.
I do not expect the margin to change much from here. It could even increase.
I read, somewhere, that there are 11,600 postals to be counted next week.
shea mcduff@285
The 57 is Turnbull-era and shouldn’t be included in the sample. With it excluded the mean by last-election preferences prior to rounding is 53.2.
While many of the polls are within their own MOE of the result (now running at 54.95) the mean of them isn’t. The reason is that for the mean of the polls we shouldn’t use the standard deviation, we should use the variance, which gives 53.2 +/- 0.62.
On that basis if we do finish up at 55 and if we assume the polls on average had no house effect, then there is strong evidence the switch from Turnbull made a difference and that difference is likely to have been 1.8 +/-0.6 points.
If some or all of the polls had a pro-Coalition house effect then that increases the likely difference. That both the Turnbull ReachTEL and the hypothetical-Turnbull ReachTEL had 57 is consistent with ReachTEL having had a house effect especially given that the four Abbott-era ReachTELs averaged three points higher than the four polls by other pollsters when converted to last-election preferences.
It’s possible on that basis that the change was actually worth over three points.
It’s all very rubbery as seat polls are not that reliable.
shea mcduff@287
I think it will be slightly, but not much, less than that. At least 500 were duplicates or disallowed.
Ta for the informed responses KB.
Care to speculate on the probable breakdown of the postals, ie throw a few numbers around, and any implications thereof?
shea mcduff@290
I doubt they’ll differ vastly from the main count and I don’t think Labor will improve, if anything I’d expect the Liberal 2PP to go up into the 55s. The Liberals did run a stronger postal campaign than Labor. At the last election the Libs got 65.1% on postals cf 61.8% overall. Many of the postals being Abbott-era may put a small dent in it but not all of them were and the difference caused by that is at most a few points anyway.
Where’s Compact Crank?
@525 on the previous thread:
[I’m predicting a 2% swing to LNP and the white hot glare on Shorten afterwards.]
Also, Sadness in the previous thread (@648):
[If it is a Turnbull vs. Shorten election, there will be a swing TO the Coalition]
Well, we just had our first test with Shorten vs. Messiah Malcolm as the leaders, and….?
And @782:
[BTW that poll shows just a 2.7% swing away from LNP on primary votes.
Not bad given the loss of the incumbency vote. Hattie and Turnbull look to be doing v. well in the by-election…..cant wait to see the actual results. Aint politics exciting again? :devil:]
Ain’t it just….what with a 7% swing against the Lieberals.
Do the other Lieberal trolls want to concede that they misread the situation, after even Messiah Malcolm’s appearance couldn’t save them from a 7% swing?
Unitary State
I agree with much of what Albo says.
However, the Labor Party being the Labor Party that it is, there is no chance of Albo being Leader and Tanya remaining Deputy.
They are both from the Left faction, from the same State, and neighbouring electorates in NSW.
Perhaps Dreyfus as Leader and Tanya or Albo as Leader.
Just a thought thrown in for discussion.
Sorry.
“perhaps Dreyfus as Leader, and Tanya or Albo as Deputy Leader”.
Some Postals Included around 60% to Libs 2 Party Preferred if that continues Swing could be down to 6%
Good to see the Greens under 6% not much media on there poor result in a By-Election Environment where you think there would be more of a protest vote
Damo, the by-election protest votes went to Labor. All optimism aside, I doubt we’ll see a 7% swing at the next general election, which means Labor’s picking up the votes instead.
I’d prefer that the Greens did so, but a strong ALP result in Canning is certainly nothing I’m going to complain about.
Unitary State @282:
How do you know he’s not there after consulting with Shorten? Australian politics are becoming entirely too Presidential, IMO – if a frontbencher appears on the news program, it’s apparently evidence of disloyalty according to some people…
Unitary State @282,
Further to the post by Matt at 298 the Light on the Hill Speech is a annual event full of labor pol lies from around Australia.
Shorten would have been there.
No dramas.
Cheers.
Good to see Harden Criminals Swinging the Libs Way at the Karnet Prison Farm