Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Two new polls makes four altogether under Malcolm Turnbull – including one very odd man out.

Two very different poll results today, one in line with the ReachTEL and Galaxy polls that reported in the immediate wake of the leadership change last week, the other not. In the former category is Newspoll, which had the Coalition with a lead of 51-49 – compared with a Labor lead of 54-46 a fortnight ago – from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up five), Labor 35% (down four) and Greens 11% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull opens his account with an approval rating of 42% and disapproval of 24%, and leads Bill Shorten 55-21 as preferred prime minister. Shorten’s approval rating is down a point to 29%, and his disapproval down four to 54%.

The other poll for the day was Roy Morgan’s extraordinary finding of a 10% shift on two-party preferred, which blows out to 12% under respondent-allocated preferences. This leaves the Coalition with leads of 55-45 on the former measure and 53.5-46.5 on the latter, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up eleven), Labor 29.5 (down seven) and Greens 13% (down three). The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday from 2059 respondents, and appears to have have been conducted only using face-to-face polling, which has traditionally shown a lean to Labor. The Newspoll will have been conducted from Friday to Sunday, from about 1700 respondents contacted through robopolling and online surveying.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has published a result just from its latest weekly polling, together with its normal fortnightly rolling average, and its debut result for Malcolm Turnbull is 50-50 (52-48 in Tony Abbott’s last poll), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 37% (steady) and Greens 11% (steady). Turnbull records a 53-17 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister; 58% approve of the leadership coup, against 24% who disapprove; and 34% say his ascension makes them more likely to vote Coalition, against 14% for less likely. Forty-six per cent expect the government to run a full term versus 26% who expect an early election, and 40% expect the Coalition to win it versus 27% for Labor.

An extended question on Malcolm Turnbull’s personal attributes finds him much more highly regarded as Abbott across the board, with particularly big improvements since the question was last asked of him in February on intelligent (up seven to 81%), capable (up ten to 70%), understanding of the problems facing Australia (up eight to 63%) and visionary (up seven to 7%). His relative weak spots are, on the negative side of the ledger, arrogant (47%) and out of touch with ordinary people (46%), and on the positive, trustworthy (44%) and more honest than most politicians (39%). Bill Shorten’s position has deteriorated across the board since June, the worst movements being on aggressive (up eight to 36%, although maybe that’s a good thing), narrow-minded (up seven to 41%) and capable (down seven to 36%).

Essential also welcomes the Turnbull prime ministership with a question on whether Australia should become a republic – support for which is, interestingly, up five points since February to 39% with opposition down five to 29%, although 32% are in the “no opinion” category. Other questions find 67% support for a national vote on same-sex marriage compared with 21% who say it should be decided by parliament, and 45% choosing “incentives for renewable energy” from a list of favoured approaches to climate change, compared with 11% for an emissions trading scheme, 10% for the government’s direct action policy and 12% for no action required.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,366 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Lots of support for our new Defence Minister.

    [“Marise Payne has been underestimated by too many people for too long,” said Brendan Nelson, a former defence minister and Liberal leader.

    “Anyone, whether in the defence and security or any other sector of our political and policy class who underestimates Marise Payne does so at their own risk.”

    Despite arguably being held back in Canberra, she is a powerful figure in the NSW party, keeping the No. 1 Senate ticket spot above the revered Arthur Sinodinos.

    She has placed her electorate office in Parramatta and has helped deliver strong results to the Liberals in western Sydney state and federal elections.

    Her partner is Stuart Ayres, the NSW Minister for Trade, Tourism and Major Events.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/new-defence-minister-marise-payne-has-right-balance-of-toughness-and-compassion-20150921-gjrntc.html#ixzz3mPl49cKR
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  3. Bronwyn unforgiving.

    [BRONWYN Bishop turned her back on a lifelong friendship with Tony Abbott and told colleagues she would vote against him in last week’s leadership coup because he had forced her to resign as Speaker.

    Ms Bishop confided in colleagues that she abandoned Mr Abbott because the former PM had acted ­“appallingly” by making her resign over the “Choppergate” scandal.

    Liberal MPs who backed Mr Abbott during his dramatic ousting as prime minister last week said they felt “sick in the guts” over Ms Bishop’s “ultimate betrayal” of her decades-long political ally.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/bronwyn-bishop-told-colleagues-she-voted-against-tony-abbott-over-choppergate-handling/story-fni0fit3-1227537823845

  4. [BRONWYN Bishop turned her back on a lifelong friendship with Tony Abbott and told colleagues she would vote against him in last week’s leadership coup because he had forced her to resign as Speaker.]

    That she doesn’t see, even now why she had to resign says it all about BBishop!

    Gawd, how petulant and self indulgent.

  6. triton

    It is an LNP “Plan” . They have claimed to have “plans” for a lot of things and constantly tell us they have “a plan” or publish glossy brochures telling us of their “plans” .

    So far ,as with the Loch Ness monster , claims of sightings have been made but no actual proof of existence have been found.

    Nearest thing so far is the IPA wish list.

  8. I’ve been wondering what Porter was like. Hmmm.

    [The newly sworn-in minister for social services, Christian Porter, has vowed to press on with legislation that would require young jobseekers to wait for an additional four weeks for unemployment benefits, despite the Senate crossbench remaining cool on the idea.

    Porter was one of the biggest winners from Malcolm Turnbull’s ascension to prime minister, after the Western Australian MP was promoted from parliamentary secretary to cabinet minister in the key social services portfolio. He was sworn in on Monday morning, taking the role from Scott Morrison, who became treasurer.

    When asked on ABC Radio if he would pursue legislation which would make jobseekers under 25 wait for an extra month on top of the current one week waiting period for dole payments, Porter said: “I think so.

    “I think they’re completely fair changes. The way in which minister Morrison when he was in the position structured all the exemption from those wait times, I think they’re incredibly fair. And I think the fairness of those can be sold to the crossbenchers.”]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/21/new-social-services-minister-stands-by-scott-morrisons-wait-for-dole-plan

  9. Good Morning

    The lesson from the last few years.

    “@MitchellPerry68: @MrPinkCarpet We proved that in QLD in January. The Courier Mail couldn’t stop the change in government, tho they tried so very hard.”

    The powerlessness of the media has become apparent. All that reporting spin to distort what is actually happening and its not keeping the right in power.

    Now that media is trying to keep Mr Shorten out of the lodge. However the dissonance to the general public shows. That QandA audience Mr Shorten took questions from is not exacty “trendy lefty latte sippers: land.

    Mr Shorten was excellent in the format despite Tony Jones. It was obvious to me that the studio audience had warmed to him with the possible exception of the windmills are dangerous lady.

    So I am more confident today that Mr Shorten will prevail than at any time since Abbott was dumped.

  11. Lovely to have Abbott leading the news, and isn’t it kind of him to interrupt his fully paid retirement to let us know that Scott Morrison was trying to mislead us. What a man of honor and dedication. It would be really good for the nation if Tones provides an ongoing commentary on the clowns running this country!

  15. And how dim is Bronnie? Turnbull openly mocked her by taking a train from Melbourne to Geelong, yet she backs him over the man who (stupidly) fell on his sword for her.

    Arguably, the leadership change (although pending for months) was triggered because Abbott defended Bishop far longer than he should have.

  16. meher baba: Do you have a twitter I can follow?

    Bill did ok last night, but he needed to. Best thing about Turnbull is he forces Shorten and the ALP to lift their game. No more winning by default because you’re not Abbott.

  17. @natpolicyseries: The AFR Tax Reform Summit starts this morning at the InterContinental Hotel. Use #afrtax and tweet to @nationalpolicyseries

  18. [Latika M Bourke ‏@latikambourke · 18m18 minutes ago
    Scott Ryan, who helped crunch numbers for PM Turnbull to remove Tony Abbott claims ‘polls don’t guide what the Govt does…or what I do.’]

  19. Labor will be quite relaxed about the polls so far I’d say. They would have been expecting at least this much bounce for Turnbull. Morgan’s poll says more about Morgan than it does about the current state of play. No one believed Labor was 57-43 last fortnight and no one should believe they’re 45-55 now.

    Turnbull’s new ministry and more solid hints at throwing overboard some of the more egregious examples of the Nope Dope’s stupidity certainly makes it more interesting that it looked early doors last week. But that only increases the chances of RWNJ rebellion. So that should be fun.

    As an aside is there a more vituperative creature in all of zoology than Bronwyn Bishop? What a disgusting slime she is. TURC had actually got Abbott and the Libs up to about 49%. Then her self indulgence is exposed and Abbott stupidly spends whatever tiny bit of political capital he had left to defend her for three weeks. If he had just boned her early he might still be PM today. She makes Sophie Mirabella almost look like a decent human being. I suspect she will be a very lonely and bitter figure on the back bench with no respect from the moderates she helped install and scorn from the Right she betrayed. Couldn’t happen to a lower form of life.

  20. That picture of Tony reminds me of a time when I was a copy boy on a newspaper many, many moons ago and there was a picture of a well known celebrity on a beach in budgie smugglers and I had to take the photo to the Arts Department so he could be “enhanced”.

  21. [A 17-year-old Syrian refugee has walked more than 300 miles carrying his pet dog after he could not bear to leave the animal in his war-torn homeland.

    Aslan, from Damascus, was interviewed by the UN’s refugee agency (UNHCR) after arriving on the Greek island of Lesbos.

    Holding the tiny dog as it yapped happily in his arms, he said: “I love this dog, I need her.”

    “The dog is Rose,” Aslan said, holding up his pet’s animal passport, before giving her a drink from his water bottle.

    “They said ‘you can’t take your dog’. I have food and I have water, I have everything.”

    When asked by aid workers why he did not leave Rose in Syria, he replied: “I love my dog.”Refugee-dog2.jpg

    A spokesperson for the UNHCR said it had seen “many” refugees like Aslan carrying their animals with them on dangerous journeys from the Middle East, across the Mediterranean and onwards through Europe.]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/i-love-my-dog-i-need-her-syrian-refugee-17-walks-than-300-miles-carrying-pet-to-europe-10511062.html

  22. lizzie
    [I think it’s the ‘plan’ for Truss to stand down next year, but now Barnaby is denying it. ]

    It seems a bit strange that Turnbull would ring Joyce about an internal Nationals matter to express approval. Turnbull wasn’t the leader last Sunday, and I didn’t think he and Joyce were close at all.

    Scott Bales
    [ @ triton – I think ‘the plan’ was for Turnbull to challenge Abbott. ]

    I’m sure he wouldn’t have told Joyce about that.

  23. I see zoomy was getting out the same idea as me, only quicker and more concisely.

    Great minds and all, along with fools that seldom differ.

  24. It is dawning on me that the LNP will not split. Bernardi and others might leave, but that will only to be the benefit of the party. The IPA-right know that what they propose is anathema to most voters, but their only hope of delivering it is through the LNP falling into government every few political cycles. Howard used race and electoral bribes to keep government, and although purged the party of many of the ‘wets’ went to ground and remained in the party biding their time. Their time is now. Abbott was such a failed experiment of the hard Howard right who tried very hard to use electoral lies and then race, intolerance and division to get voters to support the bitter IPA pill that they are intent on ramming up the average Australian (the suppository of wisdom?). I suspect the wets/moderae would welcome hard the right loons leaving and trying to become independents. Bernardi would never get a senate spot as an indi (unless he moved to queensland).

    I will never vote for a Turnbull LNP government, but I’m very happy the Howard-Abbott era is over. It will interesting to see whether if the LNP drop the border force/national security xenophobia completely, or roll it out if the polls remain tight.

    I predict a November poll. The LNP have got a bounce, but not as big as they would have hoped. Despite simplistic media hype Shorten is a worthy opponent and I think Labor still has a good chance provided they stay united behind him and continue to focus on policy. Turnbull is smart enough to know this (but possibly too arrogant to act on it?). The moment the libs go back to jingoism and fear you’ll know that they are worried. I have faith in Dutton, Cash and Morrison – as well as hard right leakers – to cause headaches for Turnbull.

    I’ll have one last prediction. Rudd will do something during the election campaign to hurt Shorten and Labor. Like Latham he will not be able to help himself.

  25. zoomster
    [And how dim is Bronnie? Turnbull openly mocked her by taking a train from Melbourne to Geelong, yet she backs him over the man who (stupidly) fell on his sword for her. ]

    Abbott eventually ditched her, so maybe this was payback.

  26. The 3aw news went with the Morgan 55-45 this morning – much sexier than the drab 51-49 of Newspoll which wasn’t even mentioned.

    It will be interesting to see how the sharp correction in the next Morgan poll will be portrayed, both by 3aw and Morgan himself. In the meantime the first Bludgertrack of the new era will probably be distorted by this apparent outlier. Pity.

  30. Triton – How dim are the people in Bronnie’s branch who supported her for all of those years and didn’t realise she was an ignorant pig-stupid chancer.

  32. [No more winning by default because you’re not Abbott.]

    As I’ve said many times, it is foolish judging by Shorten’s career so far to assume that he hasn’t got other cards to play. Staying upright, not getting drawn into the sewer and staying out of Abbott’s way to let him destroy himself has been proven to be a stunningly successful strategy.

    I don’t know if Shorten can come up with an equally successful strategy to counter Turnbull, but it is pretty clear Labor is already adapting and have been well prepared with contingency plans for Turnbull. Shorten isn’t the one trick pony Abbott was.

  34. [I’ll have one last prediction. Rudd will do something during the election campaign to hurt Shorten and Labor. Like Latham he will not be able to help himself.]

    Interesting prediction. Certainly not out of the realms of possibility. Relevance depredation syndrome is a powerful thing.

    Will probably be more than balanced by Abbott and his supporters dumping something on Malcolm.

  35. [ BRONWYN Bishop turned her back on a lifelong friendship with Tony Abbott and told colleagues she would vote against him in last week’s leadership coup because he had forced her to resign as Speaker. ]

    Once again we see, abbott is so loyal to everyone, except when he is not.

    Also more lies revealed – abbott said at the time BBish wasn’t forced out/ no deals etc.

  37. [Why is David Cameron being whiteanted like this?]

    It seems to be coming from the hard right. Perhaps they see a chance now that Dave has secured a majority for the Tories for the next five years and Labor has installed a leader they think is unelectable to dump the more ‘moderate’ (sic) Cameron overboard and get someone more muscular (like say the Chancellor) into No.10.

  38. I just love the denial and delusion here. Morgan, previously the hero poll for ALP die-hards, is dissed and discredited as soon as it shows something the lemmings don’t like.

    There’s one thing all the polls agree on, Shorten is now miles behind as preferred PM and is surely a drag on the ALP vote. With the polls close, sticking with Shorten could be the difference between government and opposition.

  40. confessions
    [I wonder if Hadley will be all over those revelations by Abbott about Morrison… ]

    He brought it up in his intro, but was strangely subdued. He didn’t spit any poison at Morrison or accuse him of lying.

  42. [ 21st Century Cabinet ]

    …is getting a real workout – looks and sounds like another three word slogan to me.

    turnbull said those days were gone.

    And ‘nimble’ needs some examination – turnbull can change his mind and backflip anytime he wants – but others still get kicked if they change a policy or a position ?

  43. What, so we’re meant to take 55-45 seriously, and *also* believe that if only Labor dumped the leader again they magically could win?

  46. What Turnbull does from now on will determine Shorten’s future, not the other way round. Governments win or lose elections not oppositions. A fact many here overlook.

  47. So Mrs Bishop stuck a knife in too, at the end. How beautiful! She was one of the nastiest pieces ever to hold a seat in Parliament, and anyone who ever supported her – for instance Mr Abbott – richly deserved such payback. It’s not too often that you see something akin to the fable of the scorpion and the frog playing out in real life.

  49. ABC radio news break leading with Abbott stating that Morrison did not advise him of leadership challenge and he denies throwing Hockey under bus. He said Morrison’s statement is false

  50. [The Lorax
    Posted Tuesday, September 22, 2015 at 8:54 am | PERMALINK
    meher baba: Do you have a twitter I can follow?

    Bill did ok last night, but he needed to. Best thing about Turnbull is he forces Shorten and the ALP to lift their game. No more winning by default because you’re not Abbott.]

    TL

    That’s the first positive thing I have seen from you regarding Shorten. Let’s hope it is the beginning of a trend.

    I thought Shorten did exceptionally well, both in the presentation and content of his answers. Anyone who underestimates him is making a big mistake IMO.

    I agree with you that Turnbull has opened up the door to a much needed debate on policy – and Shorten demonstrated last night that he is very willing and able to engage him on that. To me, that rates a much better assessment than just “ok”. But from you, an “ok” is high praise indeed.

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