BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition

After a weak result from Newspoll took a bite out of the Coalition’s poll aggregate reading last week, a strong one from Ipsos causes it to rally this time around, while Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings continue to soar to new heights.

New results for the poll aggregate this week from Ipsos, Essential Research and Roy Morgan, with the Ipsos result being the pollster’s first since the leadership change. It’s this result that’s resposible for a solid 0.7% shift in favour of the Coalition, since the other two pollsters both produced results consistent with their established Turnbull era form. I’ve now changed the state-level calculations from a weighted average to a trend measure, the effect of which is to boost considerably the Coalition’s score in New South Wales while reducing it somewhat in Queensland and Western Australia. The Coalition is accordingly up two this week on its seat tally in New South Wales but down one each in Queensland and Western Australia, adding up to no net gain despite the improvement on voting intention. Ipsos provided new leadership ratings this week, giving Malcolm Turnbull a big boost on his already strong personal approval. Ipsos’s numbers for Bill Shorten were similar to what he’s been getting from other pollsters but well below his past form from Ipsos, and his net approval rating accordingly takes another hit.

Additionally:

• The Herald-Sun reports that Helen Kroger, who won a Victorian Senate seat in 2007 but lost it in 2013 after being demoted from second to third on the party ticket, will seek preselection for the lower house seat of Bruce in south-eastern Melbourne. The seat is to be vacated at the election by the retirement of Alan Griffin, who has held the seat since gaining it for Labor on the back of a favourable redistribution in 1996, but retained a margin of just 1.8% in 2013. However, Kroger is said to face a “bitter preselection battle” from the party’s candidate for the seat in 2013, Emanuele Cicchiello, a former Knox councillor and teacher at Lighthouse Christian College. Labor’s new candidate for the seat is Julian Hill, an executive with the Victorian government’s Department of Economic Development and former mayor of Port Phillip, who won preselection earlier this year uncontested.

• David Johnston of the Border Mail reports that two candidates will contest the Nationals preselection for the northern Victorian seat of Indi, which independent Cathy McGowan won from Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella in 2013: Wangaratta businessman Martin Corboy, and former Yackandandah publican Gregory Lawrence.

• The South Australian government has introduced a number of electoral and constitutional reform bills to parliament, the latter of which will require passage at a referendum to be held in conjunction at the next election. The electoral bill proposes an end to preferential voting for its Legislative Council, with the existing system to be replaced by the straightforward Sainte-Laguë closed list system for allocating seats in proportion to aggregate vote shares. The constitutional bills propose removing the Legislative Council’s power to block the regular annual supply bills, and introducing a double dissolution mechanism very like the one in operation federally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,223 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition”

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  4. Those who don’t like “the sharing economy” phrase for activities where people share their assets for payment (home as in AirBnB; car as in Uber) might like to suggest a more apt alternative descriptor for that segment of the economy.

  5. I think the Gay Marriage Plebiscite to be held within 100 Days of the next Federal Election and with legislation passed to make it effective immediately after the Plebiscite is voted on in favour is pure genius.

    It does a couple of things:

    1. It mutes Labors pledge to hold a parliamentary vote within 100 Days if they win the election… with people realising this doesn’t actually mean it will pass under Labor

    2. It takes the power out of the politicians hands and puts it into the hands of the voting public, so rather than have Labor MP’s decide what you want, YOU get to decide what you want

    3. It makes the decision binding on the Plebiscite so nobody can complain it is a worthless waste of money… if Gay Marriage passes it becomes LAW.

    Brilliant, simply Brilliant.

  9. “@political_alert: Minister for Foreign Affairs and Minister for Communications and the Arts will make a ‘blockbuster’ announcement at 1pm, Parliament #auspol”

  10. This was from nearly 2 years ago:

    [The ABC has reacted to sustained criticism of its asylum seeker coverage with an edict to staff that they should not ”embellish” or add ”any flourish” to claims of mistreatment by Australian border protection forces.

    Head of ABC news content Gaven Morris sent the directive to the organisation’s top brass on Friday morning after a week of constant pressure on the national broadcaster, including an extraordinary attack by Prime Minister Tony Abbott, who suggested the ABC was being unpatriotic in its reports of asylum seekers’ allegations against Australian defence and border protection personnel.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/abc-boss-gaven-morris-responds-to-news-criticism-with-edict-to-staff-20140201-31u5b.html#ixzz3pFVPRks5
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  11. psyclaw @ 104

    Thank you for giving me the context.

    My visceral reaction to lizzie’s “new buzzword” was in the context of another politcians’ spin, euphemism, orwellian speak, reframing….

  16. peg

    just because you don’t understand a phrase in common parlance doesn’t make it spin.

    I would have thought a ‘sharing economy’ – powered by people power and new technology – would have been something any Green would embrace.

    Sharing car rides means less emissions per person, for example.

  21. [Australian Labor
    Australian Labor – Verified account ‏@AustralianLabor

    Shorten: Tony Abbott was in charge of the right wing of the Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull is its prisoner. #auspol
    4:40 PM – 21 Oct 2015
    8 RETWEETS5 FAVORITES]

  23. victoria. Good find.

    Bravo Stephen Long. Lots of good examples here. Sometimes it takes an “economics correspondent” to see past the press gallery groupthink.

    [Too many journalists have been willing to passively receive the narrative as laid down by the royal commission.

    Of course, journalists will report sensational allegations from the TURC – there’d be something wrong if we didn’t. But some might say it’s a star chamber.

    Knowing this, don’t we, as journalists, owe it to the public and our craft, to treat the evidence sceptically, probe the bona fides of those airing the allegations, and form some independent narratives out of this inquiry?]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-22/long-why-is-no-one-questioning-the-turc-narrative/6868102

  25. guytaur:

    Yes we will see. That report from last year about directing reportage of AS, as though in cowering to the govt suggests we may be disappointed.

  26. victoria:

    Great stuff! Long may Abbott whiteant the govt.

    [It’s been easy to detect ­Abbott’s pain since he left. He has thrown a select few, well-aimed bombs at Turnbull and those who he regards as most culpable in his downfall.

    He accused Scott Morrison of misleading the public about events prior to the spill and has undermined Turnbull’s message of change by insisting the policies and language of the new regime are the same as when he was leader.

    One well-placed Liberal insider says he still talks to his old chief of staff Peta Credlin every day and is telling people “the next Abbott Government will be better than the last”.

    Abbott’s thesis is that Turnbull’s appeal will fade and he will stumble and crash – as in 2009 when he was leader – and the party will turn back to Abbott to pick up the pieces.

    It’s hard to imagine circumstances in which Abbott’s star could rise again but his ambition has not waned and his determination is strong as ever.]

  29. lizzie

    OH and I thank you hugely for our morning read. It’s much appreciated. BK can rest and recuperate more easily – go well, BK.

    I liked Shorten’s answer today re the SSM plebiscite. The Republican debate got very dirty but this one will be worse for many.

    [Do we really want to subject members of the LGBTI community to a no case? Do you really want to see government funded campaigns attacking the moral basis of same-sex marriage and of your choices about your sexuality?

    My concern about a plebiscite isn’t just the top-line issue, is it a good or bad idea to give people a say?

    Everyone agrees it’s always a good idea to give people a say, but can you imagine the no case?

    I don’t want young people in regional Australia, who might already feel pressured and stigmatised too, have to subject to a TV campaign where they’re told that their sexuality and their choices are somehow not fit to be allowed to be married – so we have reservations about a divisive debate which will cause a lot of harm, especially when we already have a thing called the parliament and we make choices every day in parliament.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2015/oct/22/eric-abetz-declares-renewed-marriage-equality-push-an-ambush-politics-live

  30. The following from Michael Pascoe’s article linked above says it all about Joe Hockey:

    [“The reality is that Hockey failed as Treasurer before he got the job, when he was still in opposition, when winning at any cost was put head-and-shoulders above responsible policy. All that feigned outrage and scowling about debt and deficits. Who can forget his teary pledge that it would be “over my dead body” that unaccompanied children would be put in detention” during the Malaysian solution debate – before subsequently acquiescing to the incarceration of children in much worse places.”]

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/the-economy/joe-hockeys-biggest-failure-was-his-loyalty-to-tony-abbott-20151021-gkf2bh.html#ixzz3pFbqTMy1
    Follow us: @canberratimes on Twitter | CanberraTimes on Facebook

  31. confessions

    [One well-placed Liberal insider says he still talks to his old chief of staff Peta Credlin every day and is telling people “the next Abbott Government will be better than the last”.]

    Lord help us deluded and self obsessed!

  36. ‘The Age of Entitlement’ speech was an absolute lowpoint in recent political discourse, accompanying the budget that wrecked the entire Abbott government before it got out of the blocks, and made its author look an absolute goose.

    It was literally the speech that ended Hockey’s career- the moment when opening your mouth confirms an idiocy previously only suspected.

    The fact that he thinks that speech was anything but a complete disaster only confirms why the LNP showed that incompetent windbag the door.

  39. [It’s hard to imagine circumstances in which Abbott’s star could rise again but his ambition has not waned and his determination is strong as ever.]

    Cultivating mistrust and insecurity! 😆

    I’ve always maintained that Rabbott loves the thrill of the challenge.

    Not too enthused with the hard work once the challenge has been met.

  41. briefly, victoria:

    I’d be inclined to think it was parody, except the article reports Abbott still speaks to Credlin every day. 😀

  43. MBTW

    That just highlights the need for regulation like that the ACT has bought in.

    Taxi drivers have been known to do the same as well. So even with good regulation the risk is always there.

  45. Re Victoria @122:

    [“the second Abbott government will be better than the first”]

    He’s not setting the bar very high is he? So “good Government starts in”…2019?

  48. guytaur

    Yes but taxi drivers pay an awful amount of money for their licenses and could be fined these Uber blokes do nothing but make money.

  49. Re: “the second Abbott government will be better than the first”

    The second Abbot government will not contain Smokin’ Joe, so I guess this might be true 🙂

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