The Seven Network had a poll this evening from ReachTEL, which records a Coalition lead of 53-47 – a substantial shift on the 50-50 result it recorded on September 15, the evening after the leadership change. That’s all there is from that poll at this stage, but there were some headline-grabbing results today from a Morgan poll, conducted by telephone from a fairly small sample of 574. Bill Shorten could manage only fourth place on the question of preferred Labor leader, with Tanya Plibersek leading on 27% (up a point since July), Anthony Albanese second on 23% (up four), Wayne Swan third on 10% (steady) and Shorten down three to 9%. By contrast, Malcolm Turnbull’s first result for preferred Liberal leader as prime minister has him gaining from 44% to 64%, with Julie Bishop on 12% (down three), Tony Abbott on 8% (down five) and Scott Morrison on 4% (down one). The current leaders’ ratings were 66% approval and 16% disapproval for Turnbull, 25% approval (up one) and 62% disapproval (up two) for Shorten, and Turbull leading 76-14 as preferred prime minister.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that ReachTEL has Turnbull leading Shorten 68.9-31.1 on preferred prime minister, with 40.2% saying Labor should replace Shorten as leader versus 26.0% opposed.
UPDATE 2: Full results from ReachTEL here. The sample was 3574 – big even by ReachTEL’s standards – with primary votes of 46.7% for the Coalition (up 3.4%), 33.0% for Labor (down 2.9%) and 11.3% for the Greens (down 0.6%).
ALIAS – Labor has no hope, because the Libs have grabbed the only politician in Canberra with a posh accent. It’s all over, I’m afraid, unless Shortie can be persuaded to speak like Bertie Wooster.
Happiness
[What a lovely debate/discussion between Wyatt Roy and Ed Husic on 7 1/2]
Wasn’t it refreshing. No talking over one another, good humour, both very articulate, in agreement on many things.
[His Nemises Rudd and Gillard finished 16 & 14 respectively.]
OUch. That’d hurt!
bemused
When was the last time I accused you of being “someone who cares” ? 😉
poroti@104
I care about things that matter, which kind of cuts out any concern about that blog and its denizens.
Denial thick on the ground tonight.
Alias @ 92: Right on the money.
Ed Husic and Wyatt Roy were awesome tonight. Why can’t we have more of this? I want to hear about more about innovation and less about the Cayman Islands and the CFMEU.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/10/poll-roundup-wealth-attack-on-pm-fails.html
Updated my roundup for this week. Now 52.5 to Coalition.
The Lorax@106
I am not so sure I agree entirely.
Wyatt Roy sounds like he has memorised a whole lot of management clichés and techno-babble and I doubt he really understands much of it. It sounds good though.
CFMEU National Secretary Michael O’Connor on 6 reasons to reject the ChAFTA:
http://workinglife.org.au/2015/07/24/6-reasons-to-reject-the-china-australia-fta/
[THE China Australia Free Trade Agreement is unprecedented in Australian history, enshrining seismic changes to the employment of overseas workers in Australia.
At a time of extreme unemployment the Abbott Government is ushering in – for the first time in Australian history – a trade agreement that allows foreign companies to bring in semi-skilled workers.
And it’s not just bad for workers. The Australian Fair Trade and Investment Network’s analysis of the Agreement found that it benefits Chinese investors more than Australian investors.
This is not a fair Agreement and it is not in Australia’s interest. It is one sided, it is unprecedented and it sells out Australian workers.]
IT MIGHT seem a ridiculous idea to “disconnect” an entire town from the electricity grid that keeps the lights on and the airconditioning running in summer.
Try telling that to the people of Tyalgum, a 300-strong community an hour from Byron Bay trying to set an example for the rest of the country.
Blink and you’ll miss the 100-odd homes bundled closely together when passing through the picturesque Tweed Valley. It might not be on the tourist map yet but it could be soon.
Tyalgum plans to become the first town in Australia to go “off the grid”, to be powered entirely by renewable energy.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/tiny-nsw-town-of-tyalgum-aiming-to-disconnect-from-electricity-network-within-five-years/story-fni0xqrc-1227580008278
bemused
[Wyatt Roy sounds like he has memorised a whole lot of management clichés and techno-babble..]
Agree, but regardless the debate was civi and good-humoured with no rancour, gotchas, or petty personal point scoring. All in all very refreshing
bemused
[Wyatt Roy sounds like he has memorised a whole lot of management clichés and techno-babble]
Would love to know who is/are the ones whispering such wisdom into his ear. Cherchez la/le ….?
So China cuts it’s rate, while we increase ours….
poroti@112
Reminds me of a boss I once had.
Sounded good until you thought about what he had said and realised it didn’t really mean anything.
Richard Di Natale being interviewed on LL now.
Reminds me of a boss I once had.
Sounded good until you thought about what he had said and realised it didn’t really mean anything.
Like an 1950’s western…great façade but look behind the façade and its all rotten timber and no substance
Pegasus@115
I really do appreciate your warnings. 😉
bemused
Had the same boss once. I think the same guy we had was a muse of Dilbert’s creator.
[ML I don’t think Turnbull needs 100+ seats to stamp his authority. Good leadership, good policies and a solid win would do it. Labor can’t get rid of union influence. It’s part of their DNA.]
Of course union influence is a part of the Labors DNA. Its the political wing of the labour movement. No one is hiding this fact.
Tories raise this as though its some sort of political weapon. Howard ran on it in 2007.
So we have a civil debate between two politicians, on a policy area that really matters, and all you lemmings can do is bash young Wyatt. That’s the bloody problem with the political debate in this country. Everyone’s so busy backing their team they’re not even listening to what’s being said.
Wyatt did well, so did Ed. They agreed on almost everything. Can’t we leave it that?
IPA run the Liberals, Labor is Unions political arm…cant see the problem
The Lorax@120
What you said about it being civil was true.
But I don’t think Wyatt really understood much of what he was talking about. I may be wrong, but others seem to agree with me.
The civility was certainly a good start and reflected well on both.
leftwingpinko,
The problem for Labor is unions are disaffiliating from the party. Sixty percent of unions representing 50% of all union members are affiliated with Labor.
The disaffiliated unions obviously believe it is not in their best interests to have a close relationship with Labor.
The Lorax @ 106
If your interest is innovation, then the CFMEU is irrelevant but it does come to a choice between technological innovation (inc business model innovation) which drives increases in output and financial innovation in securities and derivatives which simply reallocates existing output.
I’m after the former, but I’m afraid you’ll find the Cayman Islands and all the other tricks are a large part of the latter: that system functions only because it is able to escape taxation.
Did you know that only 3% of lending now goes to firms and individuals engaged in the production of goods and services…
Marco Rubio has now moved ahead of Jeb Bush in betting for Republican nominee.
Labor’s odds are about 5/1 now which seems about right. Losing Abbott as PM was a terrible blow for Labor.
leftwingpinko
[Of course union influence is a part of the Labors DNA]
The problem for Labor is unions are disaffiliating from the party.
Sixty per cent of trade unions representing 50% of all union members are affiliated with Labor.
Disaffiliated unions obviously have come to the view that a close relationship with Labor is not in their best interests.
AA
[
IPA run the Liberals, Labor is Unions political arm…cant see the problem]
That’s slightly misleading; the IPA represent the interests which run the Liberals.
Diogenes
I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict Trump vs Sanders 2016. Battle of the meme candidates.
Sanders wins
The Unions have a say in the ALP. So what? Who do you trust? The big banks, who seem to believe they have a right to pilfer your accounts with an array of fees and charges they don’t have in places where competition exist? Who play high-stakes gambling then expect to be bailed out when it goes belly-up? Financial planners? Property developers? The miners? The fossil fuel industry? A Royal Commission into renewables would probably reveal some ‘interesting’ links. All the other moneyed spivs? Whose interests do they have at heart? Not your’s, that’s for sure.
Diogenes
[Losing Abbott as PM was a terrible blow for Labor.]
But a double plus plus for Australia so all good.
The ‘Liberal’ party is a creation of the IPA: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_of_Public_Affairs
[I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict Trump vs Sanders 2016. Battle of the meme candidates.
Sanders wins]
I still think another Clinton v Bush election.
poroti
[But a double plus plus for Australia so all good.]
Couldn’t agree more.
Us independents can relax that we don’t have that idiot as PM.
The IPA know know their stuff when it comes to astroturf.
Look at the groups associated with them; Australian Environment Foundation, Landscape Guardians etc. Entirely ironic in their naming
I really wish Greens leaders would stop using the term “the big end of town”.
briefly:
If you’re around are you following hurricane Patricia? Strongest hurricane in the history of the east Pacific, apparently!
Diogenes
How refreshing it was to have reportage of the Greens Party and an interview of its leader that was respectful.
How times have changed. The Greens Party is viewed as a legitimate political party in its own right with its own policy platform and vision for the future.
Abbott speech at the IPA 70th Anniversary
“So, ladies and gentlemen, that is a big “yes” to many of the 75 specific policies you urged upon me in that particular issue of the magazine”
Abbott owned by the IPA
D,
[I really wish Greens leaders would stop using the term “the big end of town”.]
Yes, it’s been flogged to death.
But at least it is a 4 word mantra lol
Diogenes
[I really wish Greens leaders would stop using the term “the big end of town”.]
Hear hear. The moment the Liberals stop usung “union bosses”.
5 I think
:devil:
The big end of town is Western Sydney, where you need to make a reservation to eat at McDonalds.
H,
😀 I knew i should have stopped posting lol
135
Town end size equality has to be achieved first!
[Noah Smith @Noahpinion 5m5 minutes ago
Wall St. is betting big on Jeb. They should bundle those bets and sell them to each other at ever-increasing prices! http://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-still-betting-big-on-jeb-bush-overlooking-slide-in-polls-1445005949 … ]
For whatever that’s worth.
[““The ‘Liberal’ party is an ugly party of the hard right which now has a personable and superficially attractive leader.”]
The Liberal Party is the Labor Party of the 21st Century.
It represents the workers trying to get ahead in life and stands for traditional family values, aspirational views, supports small business and is interested in lowering taxes and supporting those who work hard.
Nobody is sure what Labor stands for anymore…
TBA @146
Some time ago you said it was the province of the right to “see things how they are”
I guess you’ve moved on from that now?
confessions…thanks for pointing it out…incredible forces involved
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34614864
[The strongest hurricane recorded in the Western hemisphere is bearing down on Mexico’s Pacific coast, threatening a “potentially catastrophic” landfall.
Mexican authorities have begun evacuating residents ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Patricia.
The hurricane is comparable with Typhoon Haiyan, which killed 6,300 people in the Philippines in 2013, the World Meteorological Organization says.
A state of emergency has been declared in three states in Patricia’s path.
The category five hurricane is expected to make landfall on Friday afternoon or evening, with winds of 200mph (325km/h).
The US National Hurricane Center said Patricia was “potentially catastrophic” and the strongest storm it had recorded in the eastern Pacific or the Atlantic.]
Peg
[How refreshing it was to have reportage of the Greens Party and an interview of its leader that was respectful.]
I like di Natale. He seems engaging, very realistic and optimistic. He only slips into political BS about 25% of the time. He’s good value.
Shorten, who I don’t mind, is the least charismatic of the three leaders. I think he’s in trouble but should last to the next election which I’m pretty sure he will lose.
briefly:
She’s powerful with wind gusts forecast to 398km/hr and tracking to hit Manzanillo, Mexico’s busiest port and home to around 100,000 people.
Could be seriously catastrophic.