BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Coalition

The Coalition has moved still further ahead in the regularly weekly reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: post-redistribution preselection friction for Labor in both New South Wales and Western Australia.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate moves half a point in favour of the Coalition this week, which is presumably to do with those long lost 50-50 results fading out of the system, because there was no real movement from either Essential Research and Roy Morgan this week. With this they chalk up another two on the seat projection – one in Queensland, and one in Western Australia – and surpass their currently parliamentary tally of 90 seats. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

A beefy selection of preselection news this week:

• With its preselections to be determined next weekend, Labor’s struggling Western Australian operation is undergoing an imbroglio encompassing two of its three sitting members, and its yet-to-be-determined candidate for the state’s most marginal Liberal seat. Gary Gray, who has held the seat of Brand since 2007, has been refusing to sign a pledge that binds nominating candidates to the state platform and state conference as well as their national equivalents, and commits them to “obey the directions” of the state secretary in campaigning for their prospective office. As far as I can tell, fealty to the state platform is a not unusual feature of pledges required by Labor’s state branches, but it is generally phrased it in a way that places a higher premium on caucus solidarity. However, obedience of the state secretary appears to be peculiar to the Western Australian branch. The pledge is not new, but Gray objected to signing it on this occasion because the state platform opposes uranium mining and coal seam gas development, and struck out the offending sections on submitting his form. Consequently, the state party administration ruled the applications inadmissible. Complicating the matter is that Perth MP Alannah MacTiernan likewise made amendments to the pledge on her nomination form. Gray is taking his stand in the face of a united front of Left unions who want him to make way in Brand for Adam Woodage, described by Andrew Probyn of The West Australian as “a 28-year-old fly-in, fly out electrician on the Gorgon project”. However, the party’s national executive, including its most powerful representative of the Left, Anthony Albanese, is having none of it. As well as ordering the state branch to accept the nominations, invoking legal advice that the state pledge is inconsistent with national party rules, it has made clear it will intervene on Gray’s behalf if the matter is pursued any further.

• The Left unions in Western Australia have also irritated the party’s national heavyweights in pushing for Gosnells councillor Pierre Yang to take the nomination for the newly created seat of Burt in Perth’s south-west. This would involve the defeat of Labor’s Right-backed candidate for September’s Canning by-election, Matt Keogh, and the wastage of a lot of effort the party put into promoting him to voters in Armadale, which stands to be transferred from Canning to the new seat. Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports there are “expectations” within the party that the national executive will also intervene here if Keogh is not selected.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that the New South Wales draft redistribution has resulted in two Labor heavyweights eyeing off neighbouring seats. One is Anthony Albanese, who is said to be looking at moving south from Grayndler to Barton. Barton was gained for the Liberals at the 2013 election by Nick Varvaris, but the new boundaries turn a 0.3% Liberal margin into a notional Labor margin of 7.5% by detaching Liberal-voting Sans Souci and adding southern Marrickville from Grayndler. Albanese’s exit would present a golden opportunity to the Greens, who now dominate the area at state level but have never looked like overcoming Albanese’s personal vote federally. Heath Aston of Fairfax reports Jim Casey, state secretary of the Fire Brigade Employees Union, is seeking Greens preselection for the seat. Bruce Knobloch, said to be aligned with Senator Lee Rhiannon and her hard Left tendency, reportedly had designs on the Grayndler preselection but will now seek to run in Sydney, which would pit him against Tanya Plibersek.

• At the other end of town, Chris Bowen is reportedly looking at moving on from his western Sydney seat of McMahon, where the loss of the Labor stronghold of Fairfield has cut his margin from 5.4% to 2.1%. Fairfield is set to be transferred to Fowler, which is held for Labor by the rather lower-profile figure of Chris Hayes. However, Hayes is reportedly reluctant to make way for Bowen.

• The Liberals in South Australia have preselected Nicolle Flint, a former columnist for The Advertiser, to succeed Andrew Southcott as their candidate for Boothby when he retires at the next election. Sheradyn Holderhead of The Advertiser reports Flint has “worked as an adviser to state and federal Liberal leaders as well as the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry”. There were six nominees for the preselection, of whom Flint’s most fancied rival was Carolyn Habib, a youth worker and former Marion councillor who ran unsuccessfully in the marginal seat of Elder at last year’s state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,492 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Coalition”

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  1. [2142
    daretotread

    Tin Foil alert : I really, really hope it was not a black op by the British to scare the Russians out of Syria.]

    Since that could be construed to be an act of war, most likely even the Tories would have the sense not to do it.

  2. Lizzie

    There are really only two possibilities.

    One is a bomb, the second really scary one is a missile.

    Now if it was a bomb, who placed it – ISIS, Chechyans or British jihadis? If British, then why on a Russian plane?

    What would be very, very embarrassing for the British (or yanks) would be if ISIS has somehow got hold of a missile launcher and US or UK made weapons. Given that the US and UK suppl;y Saudi and Saudi supplies ISIS, this is not impossible. So you would have the situation where in the Ukraine rebels ACCIDENTLY shot sown a civilian plane using Russian weapons and in Egypt ISIS DELIBERATELY shot down a civilian plane using US or UK weapons. Would Abbott have to shirtfront Cameron?

  3. The Lorax

    No need to be surprised. As long as you desist from calling everyone lemmings, we can succeed in thoughtful discussion 🙂

  4. [Tin Foil alert : I really, really hope it was not a black op by the British to scare the Russians out of Syria.]

    If you want to go tin-foil there, try the IDF rather than the Brits.

  7. Briefly
    Yes you wpould think so, but of course the whole point about black ops is deniability ie “It was not me.” My gut feeling is that the UK intelligence and military operations are not as schmick as they used to be. 007, seemsed to have been replaced by Maxwell Smart.

    Let us be brutally frank. Isis was a USA/UK/French/Saudi construct, which like Al Quada before it got out of control. The US/UK funded “rebels” in Syria to depose Assad. This was all about a gas pipeline and a strategic move against Russian gas dependence in Europe. But the rebels go out of control and started beheading people, so ISIS “death cults” have been constructed to explain the change.

    Gee even the Turks could have shot down the plane, since they hate the Russians. Mind you not sure how they would be operating in Egypt. The Saudis could have being doing a little target practice too.

  8. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/11/maersk-global-growth-worse-than-it-looks/

    The pessimist’s breakfast….

    [From Bloomie comes Nils Smedegaard Andersen, chief executive officer at A.P. Moeller-Maersk:

    “We believe that global growth is slowing down,” he said in a phone interview. “Trade is currently significantly weaker than it normally would be under the growth forecasts we see.”

    “We conduct a string of our own macro-economic forecasts and we see less growth — particularly in developing nations, but perhaps also in Europe — than other people expect in 2015,” Andersen said. Also for 2016, “we’re a little bit more pessimistic than most forecasters.”]

  12. Lefty

    Oddly enough when it comes to Russians, the British are a more likely candidate than the IDF. There is long standing fear and hatred, and of course proximity makes Russia much more feared in the UK.

    IDF (or Mossad) can be blamed comfortably for attacks on Iran, Hezbollah etc, but not so sure about Russia.

  15. I am part way through the private health insurance survey and just as I formed the opinion that it was a push poll I heard Catherine King say just the same thing.
    I don’t like it one little bit.
    I will complete the survey and hope there is ample opportunity to comment.

  22. [I should add that I am still trying to come to terms with the fact that I agree with Andrew Bolt’s musings today. :(]

    Have a stiff drink and think about stopped clocks. And don’t worry. Blot will soon say something both ridiculous and disgusting and all will be well again.

  25. [What would be very, very embarrassing for the British (or yanks) would be if ISIS has somehow got hold of a missile launcher and US or UK made weapons.]

    The plane was at cruising altitude, or near to it. You can’t shoot a plane down from that height with a shoulder-launched missile.

    It would have to be one of those rigs that needs a semi-trailer and two trained operators, like the one used on MH-17.

    Don’t think the Brits could get one of those smuggled in. And the Russians don’t have access to Sinai.

    * Funny… me being the anti-tin-foil hatter in this discussion.

  26. mtbw

    Turnbull has been a member of govt and a cabinet one at that from the get go. He has been PM for two months now. Are you suggesting that the buck does not stop with him. Why have a leader at all. This is utterly absurd

  28. [“So what do we all think about the detainee on Manus escaping and then dying?

    What will the terrible Dutton do about this?”]

    What would you like him to do with criminals breaking out of the Detention Centres and jumping off cliffs?

    Such a stupid question requires a stupid answer

  29. Just a reminder for those who may need it.

    Australia is not a republic and Turnbull is not President. He is a member and leader of the Liberal Party. And as they hold a majority of seats in the HOR, makes him PM.

  33. We should at least get our facts straight.

    An asylum seeker escaped and later died on Christmas Island, not Manus Island and there are now disturbances on Christmas Island, not Manus Island.

  37. [ It would have to be one of those rigs that needs a semi-trailer and two trained operators, like the one used on MH-17. ]

    BB, if it was kit like that the EVERYONE in the area would have known as it was happening as there would have at least been radar signals from the missiles terminal homing phase, and those would have been picked up. The proximity to Israel and their sensitivity to matter missile i think makes that pretty much certain.

    Missiles that could, possibly, do this passively the whole way along the kill chain are uncommon. And anyway, as we saw from the Ukraine shootdown, a missile hit leaves a VERY distinctive signature (shrapnel damage and the like) which would have been the first thing the people looking at the wreckage would have looked for.

    Good odds that it was a nutbagger planted a bomb.

  38. Maybe just maybe it was ISIS who planted the bomb, but no we have to try and find some other party.

    And thanks Vict, always wondered how parliament worked, just a pity the political exam was yesterday 😉

  39. Turnbull is clearly on track to being the weakest, the hollowest and the most ineffectual PM since Billy McMahon. But, hey, that’s alright because the media are besotted by his ‘rainbow farts’ (sans Andrew Bolt, of course).

  40. Sohar@2189

    Turnbull is clearly on track to being the weakest, the hollowest and the most ineffectual PM since Billy McMahon. But, hey, that’s alright because the media are besotted by his ‘rainbow farts’ (sans Andrew Bolt, of course).

    LOONACY – are you a green?

  41. SOHAR – When I look at Turnbull I just see a very nasty and arrogant man. I’m going to be fascinated to see whether more and more people see that.

  44. Will the former Goldman Sachs operative, Malcolm Turnbull, take any action to extradite the fugitive Michael Hand from his bolt hole in Idaho?

  45. Great comment in the guardian:

    [You go to the ATM, you pull your money out, you don’t see the 19c or the 37c or the 45c that’s already gone, let alone the Medicare levy on top of that

    Morrison, this is the great BENEFIT of a progressive tax system; that taxes can be taken from those who barely notice the money gone.]

  48. Bushfire

    First, Isis claimed to have shot the plane down, so the idea cannot be dismissed completely.

    Second, unlike the Ukraine situation you do not have an international team of specialists all over the site. Funny about that. It was OK for Australians and Dutch to crawl all over Ukraine, but where are the Russians crawling all over Egypt. So we honestly have no idea if there is shrapnel or not. I am not sure why the British have any special knowledge (unless they did it) or as I said had been tracking some nationals. Which is embarrassing also if they failed to prevent the atrocity.

    Third: There is, access easily from Libya, Sudan, Saudi and Jordan, as well as possible Isis sympathisers either within or renegades from Egypt itself. So a missile mounted on a truck is not so impossible.

    Fourth: Well I know Israel would be tracking missiles, but presumably any that went via Egypt or Saudi or Jordan, would have some sort of tracking prevention installed, given that Israel is their major enemy.

    So yes a bomb is the most likely cause (which makes Egyptian security to blame also) but the shooting out of the sky is also a possibility that cannot be totally dismissed.

    Of course an accidental relase by the Egyptian army cannot be dismissed either, given that there is a report of a British plane nearly shot down by just such an accident.

  49. Sohar@2196

    Bemused at 2190. It’s ‘lunacy’ – and to answer your question, not particularly at the moment.

    I’ll stick with ‘loon’ and ‘loonacy’.
    [noun
    1. a crazy or simple-minded person.]
    ‘Not particularly at the moment’ seems a weasel worded confirmation.

  50. Anyone want to comment on why Kiwi Criminals are rioting on Christmas Island because a Kurd from Iran died?

    Would love to hear the reasons.

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