BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Coalition

The Coalition has moved still further ahead in the regularly weekly reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: post-redistribution preselection friction for Labor in both New South Wales and Western Australia.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate moves half a point in favour of the Coalition this week, which is presumably to do with those long lost 50-50 results fading out of the system, because there was no real movement from either Essential Research and Roy Morgan this week. With this they chalk up another two on the seat projection – one in Queensland, and one in Western Australia – and surpass their currently parliamentary tally of 90 seats. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

A beefy selection of preselection news this week:

• With its preselections to be determined next weekend, Labor’s struggling Western Australian operation is undergoing an imbroglio encompassing two of its three sitting members, and its yet-to-be-determined candidate for the state’s most marginal Liberal seat. Gary Gray, who has held the seat of Brand since 2007, has been refusing to sign a pledge that binds nominating candidates to the state platform and state conference as well as their national equivalents, and commits them to “obey the directions” of the state secretary in campaigning for their prospective office. As far as I can tell, fealty to the state platform is a not unusual feature of pledges required by Labor’s state branches, but it is generally phrased it in a way that places a higher premium on caucus solidarity. However, obedience of the state secretary appears to be peculiar to the Western Australian branch. The pledge is not new, but Gray objected to signing it on this occasion because the state platform opposes uranium mining and coal seam gas development, and struck out the offending sections on submitting his form. Consequently, the state party administration ruled the applications inadmissible. Complicating the matter is that Perth MP Alannah MacTiernan likewise made amendments to the pledge on her nomination form. Gray is taking his stand in the face of a united front of Left unions who want him to make way in Brand for Adam Woodage, described by Andrew Probyn of The West Australian as “a 28-year-old fly-in, fly out electrician on the Gorgon project”. However, the party’s national executive, including its most powerful representative of the Left, Anthony Albanese, is having none of it. As well as ordering the state branch to accept the nominations, invoking legal advice that the state pledge is inconsistent with national party rules, it has made clear it will intervene on Gray’s behalf if the matter is pursued any further.

• The Left unions in Western Australia have also irritated the party’s national heavyweights in pushing for Gosnells councillor Pierre Yang to take the nomination for the newly created seat of Burt in Perth’s south-west. This would involve the defeat of Labor’s Right-backed candidate for September’s Canning by-election, Matt Keogh, and the wastage of a lot of effort the party put into promoting him to voters in Armadale, which stands to be transferred from Canning to the new seat. Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports there are “expectations” within the party that the national executive will also intervene here if Keogh is not selected.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that the New South Wales draft redistribution has resulted in two Labor heavyweights eyeing off neighbouring seats. One is Anthony Albanese, who is said to be looking at moving south from Grayndler to Barton. Barton was gained for the Liberals at the 2013 election by Nick Varvaris, but the new boundaries turn a 0.3% Liberal margin into a notional Labor margin of 7.5% by detaching Liberal-voting Sans Souci and adding southern Marrickville from Grayndler. Albanese’s exit would present a golden opportunity to the Greens, who now dominate the area at state level but have never looked like overcoming Albanese’s personal vote federally. Heath Aston of Fairfax reports Jim Casey, state secretary of the Fire Brigade Employees Union, is seeking Greens preselection for the seat. Bruce Knobloch, said to be aligned with Senator Lee Rhiannon and her hard Left tendency, reportedly had designs on the Grayndler preselection but will now seek to run in Sydney, which would pit him against Tanya Plibersek.

• At the other end of town, Chris Bowen is reportedly looking at moving on from his western Sydney seat of McMahon, where the loss of the Labor stronghold of Fairfield has cut his margin from 5.4% to 2.1%. Fairfield is set to be transferred to Fowler, which is held for Labor by the rather lower-profile figure of Chris Hayes. However, Hayes is reportedly reluctant to make way for Bowen.

• The Liberals in South Australia have preselected Nicolle Flint, a former columnist for The Advertiser, to succeed Andrew Southcott as their candidate for Boothby when he retires at the next election. Sheradyn Holderhead of The Advertiser reports Flint has “worked as an adviser to state and federal Liberal leaders as well as the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry”. There were six nominees for the preselection, of whom Flint’s most fancied rival was Carolyn Habib, a youth worker and former Marion councillor who ran unsuccessfully in the marginal seat of Elder at last year’s state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,492 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Coalition”

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  2. daretotread@2198

    Bushfire

    First, Isis claimed to have shot the plane down, so the idea cannot be dismissed completely.

    Second, unlike the Ukraine situation you do not have an international team of specialists all over the site. Funny about that. It was OK for Australians and Dutch to crawl all over Ukraine, but where are the Russians crawling all over Egypt. So we honestly have no idea if there is shrapnel or not. I am not sure why the British have any special knowledge (unless they did it) or as I said had been tracking some nationals. Which is embarrassing also if they failed to prevent the atrocity.
    —

    This is just not true. The Russians are there in force.

  4. TrueBlueAussie@2200

    Anyone want to comment on why Kiwi Criminals are rioting on Christmas Island because a Kurd from Iran died?

    Would love to hear the reasons.

    They probably read some of your disgusting posts and want to get out and get their hands on you.

  8. [Anyone want to comment on why Kiwi Criminals are rioting on Christmas Island because a Kurd from Iran died?]

    Because they are being abused in detention by our neo-fascist guards and having their human rights trampled over.
    It has now cost Australia the vote of New Zealand in our security council bid.

    Our idiot government has pissed of two of our closest neighbours and allies. How dumb can you be?

  11. Think Big

    [Because they are being abused in detention by our neo-fascist guards and having their human rights trampled over.
    It has now cost Australia the vote of New Zealand in our security council bid.

    Our idiot government has pissed of two of our closest neighbours and allies. How dumb can you be?]

    Agree!

  12. Saving face exercising time:

    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust 56s56 seconds ago

    .@cpyne says he is pleased for @billshortenmp regarding the findings of #turc #auspol

  15. Mark Di Stefano ‏@MarkDiStef 1m1 minute ago

    Border Force denying a “riot” on Xmas island instead calling it a “major disturbance” is all very Monty Python’s Black Knight.

  17. Libertarian Unionist@2077

    As WWP has said Perth (where I live) mostly has reticulated natural gas (and even if you don’t they’ll run off bottled gas), so once you had economies of scale this price would come down quickly. Combined with battery and solar, it’s a very good deal.


    What about electricity at 5c/kWh from the grid, with a $20 monthly connection fee if you can guarantee that you use less than 6kW in a peak period? Or $30/month for under 8kW? I’ll even through in the home energy management kit, comprising an AC interrupter and hot water charge controller, to help keep you under the power cap for free (cost about $200).

    That’s what the networks and retailers will be offering very soon.

    In the face of that type of offer, does $12k worth of batteries and solar look like a good option? No snark – genuine question.

    On the face of that offer, of course batteries & solar are not a good option. It’s a no brainer.

    Is there anyone who is actually offering a deal, or that has such a deal available within a realistic timeframe? Promises are easy to make, actually delivering on such a promise is quite a different matter.

    My current power charges (Synergy, WA) are about 22 cents per kWh, and there is a state government subsidy of a few cents per kWh, so the full cost is somewhere near 25 cents per kWh. While I’ll stand corrected if you can point to a viable product which can actually deliver power at the cost you’ve stated, I’ll remain very skeptical.

  19. daretotread@2216

    Bemused

    Are you sure there are Russians there? I have not seen much media coverage, but I have no reason to doubt you.

    Do you seriously believe they could be kept out?

    Been on TV repeatedly.

  20. [“Because they are being abused in detention by our neo-fascist guards and having their human rights trampled over.
    It has now cost Australia the vote of New Zealand in our security council bid.”]

    The only reason the Kiwi Crims are in the Christmas Island detention centre is because they refuse to go home.

    They could run their court appeal to their deportation from New Zealand but instead they chose to play silly buggers and have now have a stint in CI.

    Of course according to the lefties.. these Kiwi Crims are the victims… not the Australian victims they destroyed the lives of.

  22. [First, Isis claimed to have shot the plane down, so the idea cannot be dismissed completely.]

    Yes it can. You can’t shoot down planes that high in the sky except with missile that ISIS would not and could not have.

  25. [@cpyne says he is pleased for @billshortenmp regarding the findings of #turc #auspol]

    thinking about his chances under a future Labor government

  26. ABC reporting 2/3rds of people in Christmas Island detention centre are Criminals.

    Other 1/3rd are illegal boat arrivals

  28. “”You go to the ATM, you pull your money out, you don’t see the 19c or the 37c or the 45c that’s already gone, let alone the Medicare levy on top of that””

    Sounds LIKE the “DEBITS” withdrawal tax.

    Nows there’s an IDEA!.

  29. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I am very aware of what my employer says my pay is, and what I actually get in my bank account.

    I doubt it would be much different for casual workers who are counting their hours and working out what to expect in their pay.

  30. “Are you sure there are Russians there?”

    Russians, French, Irish – and Egyptians, of course.
    http://avherald.com/h?article=48e9abe4&opt=0

    “A new Islamic State video shows a Russian-speaking jihadist praising his “Sinai brothers” for “taking down” a Russian passenger jet and threatening more attacks, while both Russia and Egypt say the group doesn’t possess the means to shoot down a plane.”

    “Taking down” is not the same thing as “shot down”.

  31. K17

    Pyne is like a lot of things. Most of those things you don’t discuss in polite society. The others you try to eradicate with toxic chemicals.

  32. bemused

    [This is just not true. The Russians are there in force.]
    They are indeed.. Saw footage from the crash site a few days back and they reported there were 140 Russians there at that stage investigating.

  33. Good afternoon all,

    Both Turnbull and Morrison have spoken about the states accepting more responsibility for health and education funding.

    In a interview with The Guardian recently Turnbull was on about the states looking at private investment to fund both health and education as a option.

    Morrison just last week was on about how the states should not be expecting buckets of extra money from any changes to the tax system and how they needed to look elsewhere for solutions.

    The move by Health Minister Ley re the online poll is just the first step down the path.

    The liberals are ideologically opposed to universal health care and education.

    Turnbull can waffle all he likes, the MSM can try and cover for him but the bottom line is the Turnbull government, being a liberal government will push for reduced federal funding for health and education sucking the states dry and then push for private involvement in both.

    Welcome. To Turnbull Australia where everybody had equal access to good education and health except those less able to pay.

    Cheers.

  35. Doyley

    Turnbull is merely attempting to do what Abbott failed. Sell us a shit sandwich with a smile and “captivating” rhetoric. Wolf in sheeps clothing is all

  37. [Lady Melanie
    Lady Melanie – ‏@CartwheelPrint

    The irony of a PM that lurves to talk now strangely silent. Whether pro #refugees or not, another has died in our custody #ChristmasIsland]

  38. The Russian plane has not actually crashed.

    All those bits and pieces were 3D printed fakes.

    The plane is in a hangar in Diego Garcia next to MH 370.

    The touchy bit here may be whether ISIS and The Brotherhood have joined hands in other than an ideological sense. (Noting that ISIL and the Egyptian Government have the very same Saudi paymasters… but hey, it is the Middle East).

    The Brotherhood, after years of being murdered and tortured, actually won an election during the Arab Spring and, with it, the right to be toppled by a military coup.

    Persecution of the Brotherhood since has been pervasive, intense and murderous.

    Peter Greste is just the lucky tip of an iceberg.

  39. The strange thing about fraudband is they are actually using cutting edge technology. The cutting edge of a branch of technology being superseded, that is. It would be like investing in the most advanced horse and buggies just as cars were becoming mainstream.

  41. [Dutton is a stumbling, bumbling, mumbling insult to Pink Ladies.]

    Dutton is a lot of things. Most of those things you don’t discuss in polite society. The others you try to eradicate with toxic chemicals.

  42. “The dream” appears to be that Turnbull will win the next election and that will allow him to shift to the centre.

    But that doesn’t work.

    1. For Turnbull to shift to the centre, he needs to win an election with centrist policies. If he takes the present government policies – even slightly amended – to the next election, it doesn’t how many seats he wins by, changing policies after that election will mean breaking election policies.

    So the earliest the policy changes which (supposedly) Turnbull wants to implement could be taken to an election is around 2020.

    2. If Turnbull wins the next election without dramatically changing policy beforehand, the Right will argue that there is no need for policy change. It will make Turnbull’s job (assuming he wants to do it) harder.

    IF Turnbull wants change, he needs to start building up to it now and have changes ready for the next election campaign. He has already ruled out doing this on climate change and asylum seeker policy, and we can assume he has no intention of changing the NBN.

  44. It’s not a comparison between gold plating (given that’s how you want to describe the original plan) and a simpler,
    minimal upgrade. It’s a comparison between two types of gold plating.

    Fraudband is actually more complicated. It’s more complicated because they’re going to great lengths to squeeze the last drops of blood out of the copper network, and because the technology mixture is more complicated.

    The only bit that’s simpler is leaving in some lengths of copper that would otherwise have been replaced.

  46. [“The dream” appears to be that Turnbull will win the next election and that will allow him to shift to the centre.]

    He wins and delivers the right dreams not a shift to centre. That he is already talking American style health – is he insane?

  47. I think that’s the argument Labor need to make, not because the NBN itself is necssarily a hot election issue, but because it demonstrates Turnbull’s incompetence.

    He’s invested just as much, if not more, not in a simpler, minimal upgrade than the original plan, but in a different, more complicated type of gold plating that’s already been superseded.

    The more you try to squeeze out of any medium, the more complicated, expensive and less reliable it gets. The original plan got around that by simply replacing the medium.

  49. I am not watching QT, but this does not surprise me

    [Andrew Giles MP
    Andrew Giles MP – ‏@andrewjgiles

    PM calls for ‘adult conversation’ on tax one minute, the next – agilely – refuses to answer]

  50. Poroti/Bemused

    I guess about it is just our poor jouirnalism, but I have not hjeard anything in the news about what the Russians say about the crash. We hear what the brits say, the yanks etc but not the russians. We here from the Egyptians but as they have a major cover up incentive, this must be treated with caution.

    It is a Russian plane, so I am assuming they will be the most likely to be across the detail. I do not much care what Cameron or the Petagon say. They technically should no nothing at all since they are not involved

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