BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Coalition

Malcolm Turnbull and his government take a bit of a knock on this week’s poll aggregate readings, while remaining in a well and truly commanding position.

The Coalition loses a coat of paint or two in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, as last week’s strong result from ReachTEL washes out of the system and only relatively modest results from Newspoll and Essential Research emerge to take its place. The two-party trendline shown on the sidebar is now pointing downwards for the first time on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. However, this has only made one point of difference to the seat projection, with Labor making a gain in New South Wales. There are new results on leadership ratings this week from both Newspoll and Essential, the former of which was fairly soft for Malcolm Turnbull by his standards. That causes a slight dip in his net satisfaction reading, although there’s no movement on preferred prime minister.

Preselection news:

• The Fairfax papers report that Bronwyn Bishop remains determined to seek another term as member for the blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Mackellar, despite her 73 years and downward career trajectory. The report says that the party’s hard Right faction has “abandoned Mrs Bishop over her perceived treachery against Mr Abbott, but it has little sway in Mackellar and it remains to be seen whether the left and centre right factions will use their numbers to protect her from challenge at preselection”. She appears likely to face a challenge from Jason Falinksi, chief executive of a health care supplier and a former Warringah councillor, whose party activities included the then-important job of campaign manager to Malcolm Turnbull when he first ran in Wentworth in 2004. Others mentioned are Jim Longley, who held the state seat of Pittwater from 1986 to 1996, and whose name comes up intermittently in relation to a possible comeback; Paul Nettelbeck, marketing director at Southern Cross College; and the one confirmed starter, Bill Calcraft, a businessman and former national rugby union player.

• The ABC reports the Nick Xenophon Team has unveiled its first tranche of five candidates for the next election, and taken the advantage of the opportunity to emphasise the national scale of its ambitions. Only two of the five are seats in South Australia, the only state where it stands to be seriously competitive. Matthew Wright, an emergency physician at the Flinders Medical Centre, will run against Christopher Pyne in Sturt, while Mayo MP Jamie Briggs will have to face one of his former staffers – Rebekha Sharkie, who has also worked for state Liberal MPs Isobel Redmond and Rachel Sanderson. The other three are Marie Rowland, a psychologist and counsellor, who will run in Tony Abbott’s Sydney seat of Warringah; Nancy Bassett, a consultant to Challenge Mining, who will run against Kelly O’Dwyer in the Melbourne seat of Higgins; and Josie Townsend, a “former publicist who now runs a marketing business specialising in start-up businesses”, who will run in the Toowoomba-based Queensland seat of Groom against Ian Macfarlane, who recently defected from the Liberal Party to the Nationals, although both are under the Liberal National Party umbrella in Queensland for electoral purposes.

• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports seven candidates have emerged for the Labor preselection to succeed Kelvin Thomson in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills: Mehmet Tillem, who held a Senate seat in 2013 and 2014 and now works for Victorian Small Business Minister Philip Dalilakis; Josh Funder, a funds manager and former Yarra councillor; Anna-Maria Arabia, policy director to Bill Shorten; Peter Khalil, a former SBS executive; a funds manager and former Yarra councillor; and two Moreland councillors, Lambros Tapinos and Meghan Hopper. I had a good deal more to say about the situation in Wills in a piece for Crikey last week.

• Also from me in Crikey: a post-match report on the North Sydney by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,015 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Coalition”

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  1. TBA – you are 100% correct. A GST increase is lazy and unfair when there are plenty of other budget cuts and revenue increases that are much more equitable.

  2. 1750

    The qualifications to run are complicated to prove because the Commonwealth only requires that someone be eligible to be enrolled to vote, not that they actually are enrolled. If this was changed to the situation in Victoria, where actual enrolment is required (which required the Liberals to find a new candidate on or about the last day of nominations in Gembrook in 2002), then eligibility to stand could be easily checked by the AEC.

    However, foreign citizenships fall under the separate Disqualifications category, with several other hard to check disqualifications. Do we want candidates having to get 9+ certificate to prove a lack of office of profit under the crown (excluding the exempt types)? Get certificates from all foreign governments that there is no foreign citizenship or acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience or adherence? Proof of solvency? Proof of lack of pecuniary interest in an agreement with the Commonwealth (except as exempt)?

  4. [I would love to hear the lefts solutions]

    Perhaps if you took your fingers out of your ears and stopped singing La La La loudly and incessantly when someone is trying to present these solutions you would hear them.

  6. Tom @ 1752: Fair points. But we could at least start by requiring candidates to state whether they were born in Australia, and, for the ones who weren’t, to prove that they don’t have an allegiance to a foreign power.

  7. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasury/deficits-fuel-600bn-debt-nightmare-as-revenue-plunges/news-story/9ebf9498d48be5e78e196ae7a4de38c1

    Are the Coalition still going with their mantra “Australia does not have a revenue problem, only a spending problem”

    One real problem is foregone revenue which doesn’t come up in these budget statistics – the potential revenue that is being siphoned off in overly-generous superannuation tax concessions for those who will already be the wealthiest in retirement.

    Over to you Malcolm and Scott. This is your life.

    And don’t blame the Senate – if you can’t get your stuff through, have the guts to call a double dissolution, and if that doesn’t work, a double sitting. One PM did that – and we got Medibank from it (the forerunner to Medicare)

  8. pedant 1756 – I have come to this late – but I would surmise that English-born Abbott has certainly demonstrated an allegiance to a foreign power for many years. In fact two sovereign states – the UK, and The Vatican.

  9. Anthony Albanese “will almost certainly shift from his seat of Grayndler into the seat of Barton at the next election, having won the support of the Right”, reports Troy Bramston in The Oz. Possible Labor candidates for Grayndler include Linda Burney, Verity Firth and Leichhardt mayor Darcy Byrne. Also, Charlton MP Pat Conroy may face opposition from NSW Labor assistant secretary John Graham as he seeks to move to Shortland, where Jill Hall is expected to retire.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/anthony-albanese-tightens-grip-on-new-seat-of-barton/news-story/725cf7176091332b49e2e8db2c0997a1

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    A wonderful example of the power of ignorance and innate lack of intelligence at work.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/un-climate-conference/us-town-rejects-solar-farm-after-residents-say-it-would-suck-up-the-sunlight-20151213-glmqa6.html
    What more would the cops want?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-police-accused-of-failing-19yearold-alleged-domestic-violence-victim-20151214-glngc9.html
    What now Chainsaw?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lnp-rejects-ian-macfarlanes-move-to-join-national-party-20151214-gln3ff.html
    Michael Gordon examines the aftermath.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lnp-rejects-ian-macfarlanes-move-to-join-national-party-20151214-gln3ff.html
    Michelle Grattan sees it as Turnbull doing over Macfarlane again. And the Nationals, too.
    https://theconversation.com/turnbull-and-the-liberals-put-macfarlane-and-the-nationals-in-their-place-52311
    “View from the Street” looks at the left wing bias of established facts, Ian Macfarlane’s future and everyone’s favourite, George Christensen.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street-ian-macfarlane-welcome-to-dumpsville–population-you-20151214-gln74v.html
    The SMH says there are still many unanswered questions a year after the Martin Place siege.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/martin-place-siege-disturbing-questions-linger-a-year-on-20151213-glmkmo.html
    Josh Gordon on Abbott’s disgraceful performance with Melbourne’s East West Link funding.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/martin-place-siege-disturbing-questions-linger-a-year-on-20151213-glmkmo.html
    Peter Hartcher has his say about the efficacy of the Paris climate change agreement.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/paris-climate-agreement-more-hot-air-wont-save-us-from-oblivion-20151214-gln38t.html
    Peter Martin says the MYEFO needs to be nothing but the unvarnished truth. He says it’s time to embrace the new reality.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/myefo-the-truth-will-be-ugly-but-its-what-we-need-20151213-glml8d.html

  13. Section 2 . . .

    Read this article from Peter Reith about tax and budget reform if you feel like it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-dilemma-how-to-make-the-states-come-to-the-party-on-tax-reform-20151214-glmt93.html
    An open letter to Tony Abbott the political zombie. Quite direct it is.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/open-letter-to-zombie-abbott,8490
    This lawyer representing a number of victim survivors says Pell’s non-appearance at the Royal Commission this week is farcical. She has had more than enough.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-pells-failure-to-appear-before-royal-commission-another-insult-to-sex-abuse-victims-20151213-glmp01.html
    Disgraceful form from the makers of Nurofen end up being exposed for what it is.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/14/nurofen-targeted-painkillers-reckitt-benckiser
    This health senior lecturer says the TGA needs much more teeth and tools in order to stamp out this sort of behaviour.
    https://theconversation.com/can-the-accc-target-the-source-of-misleading-labelling-52303
    Rapacious supermarket chains cover themselves in glory here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/woolies-coles-aldi-caught-up-in-child-labour-scandal-20151214-glnagx.html
    How McDonalds’ business methods are being used by ANZ,
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/branches-central-to-anzs-nsw-push-20151214-glmzaz.html

  14. Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    A knock on the head and being at The Australian for too long seems to have taken a toll of Bill Leak.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.in/2015/12/14/australian-racist-india-cartoon_n_8802726.html
    Bruce Petty has some fun with Abbott.

    David Pope on the Macfarlane escapades.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html?selectedImage=1
    MUST SEE! Alan Moir with Abbott the Manic State suicide bomber.

    John Spooner – Reformation II.

    At the rodeo courtesy of Mark Knight.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/dd73efdeeb96a8ce141f10830520fe07?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    Jon Kudelka – Ian and the beanstalk.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/kudelka-gallery/image-gallery/c9bba0fb18433a11dc5b8894cf60dbd1
    Nothing yet from David Rowe unfortunately.

  15. The Nationals are just plain greedy. They think they deserve another seat in Cabinet! Remind me how much of the population lives in Rural and Regional Australia again!?! (And who says The Nationals should have a lock on representing Regional Australia anyway!) Then compare that to the numbers in Cabinet and tell me what their real level of representation should be.

    I hope they fall flat on their faces in the red dirt for being so mean and tricky.

  16. shellbell,
    Linda Burney has a deep wellspring of support in Inner Sydney. She is loved by people across the political spectrum. However, that said, according to Troy Bramston’s article it seems Darcy Byrne might be the one to get the nod. Which I believe, what with the Council Amalgamations being forced through by the Liberals wanting to extend their power into Labor-held council areas, therefore the option has opened up for Darcy Byrne to move on from Leichardt Council. He is a strong performer with lots of local name recognition.

  17. Perhaps Andrew Street could explain science to the deniers this way? 😀

    [Here’s a fun question: if 97 per cent of medical and engineering experts said that you should definitely not put a hot soldering iron to your urethra, and the contrarian three per cent were largely employed by companies whose profits were derived from treating genital burns, would you assume that the majority probably had the right idea or would you angrily declare that at best the science wasn’t get in and at worst that “ductal warming” was a myth invented by the United Nations?]

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street-ian-macfarlane-welcome-to-dumpsville–population-you-20151214-gln74v.html

  18. Sorry, it’s me again. :}

    It appears that the word has gone out that notional ‘Liberals’ and ‘Nationals’ from Queensland must begin the job of mending fences in the LNP and the Coalition generally following Ian Macfarlane’s ‘brain explosion’ (Ewen Jones’ words for the greedy rat trying to jump ship to where the grass was greener).

    Michelle Landry(notional LNP National), in a case of grand guignol understatement said, “Well, you know it’s a pretty rough and tumble world in Canberra!”

    On the other hand, I think the more sober judges said that they don’t quite know how the Liberal Rat, Ian Macfarlane, the biggest since Peter Slipper, was quite going to fit easily back into the Liberal Party room should he come back to Canberra after the Christmas/New Year break.

    I think this one has a way to play out yet. However, I reiterate my much made general point that the Liberals and Nationals never let a political wound fester and always get their messaging sorted as step 1. Whether it works or not in this case is yet to be seen.

  19. Adam Creighton just made an interesting point on Newsradio. Whatever happened to the ‘Debt Truck’?

    Lost on the Liberal Road to Nowhere. 😉

  20. Finally, (I’ll stop after this :} ) Adam Creighton cast doubt on whether Australia will be able to keep it’s AAA Credit Rating next year if the Turnbull/Morrison team keep spending and increasing the Deficit.

    However, otoh, it was pointed out the the sort of cuts that were made in the 1st Coalition Budget did not please the electorate and so, where do they have to go? More ‘Efficiency Dividend’ and ‘Welfare Crackdown’ type of moves just won’t cut it!

    It appears the Turnbull/Morrison mob are living in interesting times and are going to have to make some moves that are going to hurt in an election year, or squib it and thus potentially lose the AAA Credit Rating. Poor dears. 😀

  21. C@tmomma

    [Adam Creighton just made an interesting point on Newsradio. Whatever happened to the ‘Debt Truck’? ]
    Hurt by taunts over the amazing disappearing “Debt and Deficit Disaster” they’ve decided creating one has a higher priority. Scrott Morrison is about to give the first progress report.

  23. MArk Kenny wears his heart on his sleeve re. MacFarlane:

    [The cynicism of such manoeuvring apparently knows no limit. Having failed to secure personal advancement through skulduggery, the risk is he could take the corporate knowledge of national service and deploy it for private corporate gain.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/ian-macfarlane-in-political-wilderness-after-lnp-rejects-his-bid-to-join-nationals-20151214-gln5xa.html#ixzz3uKUbxLcP ]

    From someone usually so sanguine about “Teh Politics”, and so shruggy-shouldery about political skullduggery, Kenny sounds quite upset that someone should try to rock the Turnbull Boat.

    MacFarlane had a go, got some of the way and then failed at the last hurdle. Happens all the time. Why should Kenny be so wowserish about it?

  26. Libs better economic managers – ah no. No recession or GFC they have had to deal with. They lack ideas other than cut, cut, cut. Deal with the perks of the rich and big end of town which genius PM Howard and his cohort Costello introduced and we can no longer afford. Pretty simple really.

    It’s not rocket science.

  30. After not answering the question Trioli asks how is it possible to be on a credible path to surplus when it looks like there will be no surplus until the end of the decade?

  37. God, I feel sorry for the poor families of those who died in the Lindt seige, having to be dragged through a memorial service. Can’t people just leave these things alone.

  38. [However, otoh, it was pointed out the the sort of cuts that were made in the 1st Coalition Budget did not please the electorate..]

    Yes, but the question is whether or not the Coalition believes that the cuts did not please the electorate – and there is still very little evidence that they recognise this.

    In one of his major speeches before he became PM, Turnbull hoed into the poor salesmanship of the Coalition’s agenda, and then pointed to his own ‘selling’ of the postal price rises as an example of How It Should Be Done. (Which suggests several flaws in his own ability to evaluate successful sales jobs, but that’s another – though important – issue).

    The rhetoric (from both Turnbull and Morrison) is still that Labor and the crossbenchers prevented the Coalition implementing its agenda – there is little or no suggestion that this was supported by the great unwashed, the tone is always that this is another reason for voters to spurn Labor.

    And the present polling will support the Coalition in these beliefs. Aha, they say – it wasn’t our agenda which was unpopular, it was our leader, because he wasn’t selling it properly. Now we have a new shiny leader, it’ll be a doddle.

  39. Yes K1 I think I might be having the TV off for most of the day today. They (the meejah) are going to bleed this memorial event for everything they can get.

  40. Morning all

    The expectation is that McFarlane should pick up his bat and ball and go home. Then the coalition will be happy families again

  41. zoomster

    The whole blame Labor theme is undone by a simple fact that the LNP puts down to poor salesmanship but is likewise the product.

    Labor by itself cannot block anything. Failure to gain a majority support of Senators is a failing of this LNP government and we have so far seen no signs of this changing.

    Labor in minority regularly got things through so much so no one paid attention. Now we know Morrison is lauded because he was able to blackmail some Senators to get legislation through.

    I think that like me you can see this leopard is not changing spots yet

  44. I am just catching up on the Cronulla memorial news.

    Is there a reason this ‘patriot’ is cooking a giant penis? Symbolism?

  45. Kevin 1-7

    I find the constant ‘celebrations’ of anniversaries artificially contrived to give opportunities for cliche’d speeches and sentimental wallowing, usually by people who are not directly affected (especially pollies and public figures with an axe to grind).

  47. Lizzie – Revolting how people’s private grief is turned into public property.

    Zoomster – Totally agree. Additionally, Morrison is On a Mission from God. How could anyone not see the rightness of his cause. He really is just a bug-eyed loon.

  48. The Lindt Cafe Memorial is overkill. Should be private. The artwork commerating the event is fine.

    However it was always going to be this way. The media feels directly involved because it happened so close to Channel 7. Add to that the media justifying its over the top reporting of Abbott calling it terrorism instead of a lone nutter and the families stood no chance of a private day.

  49. K-1-7,

    ‘ God, I feel sorry for the poor families of those who died in the Lindt seige, having to be dragged through a memorial service. Can’t people just leave these things alone.’

    Because politicians.

  50. victoria

    Yes McFarlane will go. He left himself with not much option with his public statements that he would resign if he did not have a ministry when he thought they had it in the bag

    He makes Martin Ferguson look good by comparison in the self interest stakes.

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