BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Coalition

Malcolm Turnbull and his government take a bit of a knock on this week’s poll aggregate readings, while remaining in a well and truly commanding position.

The Coalition loses a coat of paint or two in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, as last week’s strong result from ReachTEL washes out of the system and only relatively modest results from Newspoll and Essential Research emerge to take its place. The two-party trendline shown on the sidebar is now pointing downwards for the first time on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. However, this has only made one point of difference to the seat projection, with Labor making a gain in New South Wales. There are new results on leadership ratings this week from both Newspoll and Essential, the former of which was fairly soft for Malcolm Turnbull by his standards. That causes a slight dip in his net satisfaction reading, although there’s no movement on preferred prime minister.

Preselection news:

• The Fairfax papers report that Bronwyn Bishop remains determined to seek another term as member for the blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Mackellar, despite her 73 years and downward career trajectory. The report says that the party’s hard Right faction has “abandoned Mrs Bishop over her perceived treachery against Mr Abbott, but it has little sway in Mackellar and it remains to be seen whether the left and centre right factions will use their numbers to protect her from challenge at preselection”. She appears likely to face a challenge from Jason Falinksi, chief executive of a health care supplier and a former Warringah councillor, whose party activities included the then-important job of campaign manager to Malcolm Turnbull when he first ran in Wentworth in 2004. Others mentioned are Jim Longley, who held the state seat of Pittwater from 1986 to 1996, and whose name comes up intermittently in relation to a possible comeback; Paul Nettelbeck, marketing director at Southern Cross College; and the one confirmed starter, Bill Calcraft, a businessman and former national rugby union player.

• The ABC reports the Nick Xenophon Team has unveiled its first tranche of five candidates for the next election, and taken the advantage of the opportunity to emphasise the national scale of its ambitions. Only two of the five are seats in South Australia, the only state where it stands to be seriously competitive. Matthew Wright, an emergency physician at the Flinders Medical Centre, will run against Christopher Pyne in Sturt, while Mayo MP Jamie Briggs will have to face one of his former staffers – Rebekha Sharkie, who has also worked for state Liberal MPs Isobel Redmond and Rachel Sanderson. The other three are Marie Rowland, a psychologist and counsellor, who will run in Tony Abbott’s Sydney seat of Warringah; Nancy Bassett, a consultant to Challenge Mining, who will run against Kelly O’Dwyer in the Melbourne seat of Higgins; and Josie Townsend, a “former publicist who now runs a marketing business specialising in start-up businesses”, who will run in the Toowoomba-based Queensland seat of Groom against Ian Macfarlane, who recently defected from the Liberal Party to the Nationals, although both are under the Liberal National Party umbrella in Queensland for electoral purposes.

• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports seven candidates have emerged for the Labor preselection to succeed Kelvin Thomson in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills: Mehmet Tillem, who held a Senate seat in 2013 and 2014 and now works for Victorian Small Business Minister Philip Dalilakis; Josh Funder, a funds manager and former Yarra councillor; Anna-Maria Arabia, policy director to Bill Shorten; Peter Khalil, a former SBS executive; a funds manager and former Yarra councillor; and two Moreland councillors, Lambros Tapinos and Meghan Hopper. I had a good deal more to say about the situation in Wills in a piece for Crikey last week.

• Also from me in Crikey: a post-match report on the North Sydney by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,015 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Coalition”

Comments Page 37 of 41
1 … 36 37 38 … 41

  1. Whilst Report outs Abbott’s conduct as being irresponsible,Turnbull allows Victoria to retain 1.5 bil for other projects. When Abbott was PM, he was demanding the money back if it wasnt going to be used for east west link.
    Me thinks Abbott is quietly seething about this.

  3. [He makes Martin Ferguson look good by comparison in the self interest stakes.]

    I actually thought he would be good for the Nationals, give them some cred. Marn Ferson is a different kitchen implement altogether.

  6. The Lindt siege was not a Family Terror related incident gone random as so often happens. That is domestic violence.

    By wrapping it up as a terror event the media police and politicians are undermining the whole campaign to treat domestic violence seriously in its own right.

  7. guytaur
    The Bank Hotel used to be famous for its Friday cocktail hour. If I recall correctly (which is a struggle), it started at 6pm and my night was all over by 7.

  8. dave,

    I actually saw Rupert say the words in an interview some years ago on one of his regular tours of the News Empire.

  9. Sorry redoing first para then I will take a break as my coffee has obviously not kicked in.

    The Lindt siege was not a Terror related incident It was Family Terror gone random as so often happens. That is domestic violence.

  11. guytaur
    they were good times.
    thankfully I had a short downhill walk home. Sometimes, only sometimes, I was able to muster a Vodka McGovern at The Rose on the way.

  13. I once had a discussion with a female friend of mine, who was distraught, sobbing, that this bloke she had been going out with had only wanted to get her into bed.

    There had been flowers, romantic dinners, moonlight cruises on the harbour, sweet nothings whispered, shy holding of hands etc. etc. He was different, she had assured me. But once the lover had had his way she never saw or heard from him again.

    I told her that in the boy/girl area the ultimate purpose of it all is usually to get it sticky. Eventually the parties to take their pants off if the relationship is to progress to a greater involvement. What did she think he was looking for? Mills and Boone?

    Perhaps I was a bit too stern and realpolitik with her, but I hope my advice helped toughen her up a little.

    Malcolm Turnbull has been sending red roses to the Australian public for several months now. It’s been romantic interlude after romantic interlude – innovation, optimism, cleverness, charm… the future is ours to see.

    This week the government’s pants will be dangling around the ankles. Malcolm’s mate, Scott is not nearly as romantic as Malcolm is. In fact he’s the nastiest of any of them who have talent. The reality and digestability of the basic Liberal philosphy – that cuts to services solve everything – is about to be tested.

    So far the punters have been wooed into thinking that only those dole/disability/family/sick bludgers over there, the scum we read about day after day in the Daily Telegraph, will get their fiscal comeuppances when the axe is wielded.

    But when the punters lose their jobs, or become injured, or have kids at school, or need a doctor, they’ll realize that the targets are pinned to their chests, not the other bloke’s.

    Suddenly the idea of getting the budget back into surplus so that politicians can brag about how terrific they are at economic management (and thus get the punters who they’ve just ripped off to vote for them) won’t seem so romantic.

    If the government raises the GST from 10% to 15%, and widens the base, the $45 billion they collect won’t seem so much like a windfall, Magic Pudding effort anymore. It will have come out of the punters’ pockets.

    “No-one ever taxed their way to prosperity,” it is said. Sure they did! Look at countries that managed their resources booms wisely, like several in Scandanavia. Here, in Magic Pudding Land, we gave away our own resources for a song, running the line that royalties were just a tax by another name; spruiking the idea that we should be grateful the miners came here at all to give us fly-in/fly-out jobs for 10 years, and then lay us all off when we weren’t needed anymore.

    The converse is truer: “No one ever cut their way to prosperity” either. Cutting government spending has a direct effect on an economy. What’s the point of amassing a Scrooge McDuck-like swimming pool full of money in the Treasury basement if you aren’t going to spend it on your citizens? A surplus is no good if all you do is look at it.

    Cuts might work with corporations. If you hack off enough fat, and then slice into the muscle and bone, you can always be left with something profitable enough to earn the CEO his bonus. But what he’s presiding over isn’t the same as the firm he started with. It employs less people. It generates less cash. It makes less profits. It’s smaller in every way. That’s the aim of the exercise.

    This is what is about to happen to Australia. Wealthy shock jocks, well paid journalists, business spruikers, sleeve tuggers and spivs all tell us that cuts are the only way to go, with maybe a GST increase as the cherry on top. That’s because they think they’re not going to suffer either.

    But when an economy is contracted, when the aim of productivity is sacrificed to crude slashing and burning, everybody suffers. And we in Australia are about to find that out.

    Morrison is the least worst person that Turnbull has to sell this idea, besides himself. We’ll soon find out whether a hatchet man wielding a hatchet keeps the government at its present stellar levels, or whether the punters’ eye are opened to the fact that after the charm and the romance, the ultimate aim was always just to get them into bed.

  15. Greensborough Growler@1808

    dave,

    I actually saw Rupert say the words in an interview some years ago on one of his regular tours of the News Empire.

    Fair enough. He may have pinched them from Cronkite which I believe date from around the 60’s.

    He would see the words as fitting his ‘sacking’ meme.

    The boozing (on his time anyway) by Journos certainly came to end with the move to Wapping. Also he garnered significant profit by cutting head counts on many of the newspapers he took
    over.

  17. guytaur
    In 2013 I was in Sydney for work for a couple of days and stayed in the area (it had been 8 years since I lived there). I took a warm summers evening stroll through King Street, enjoying the vibe only to be confronted by a teaming rainstorm. It was like Paul Kellys song – “everything shines just like a postcard”. I happily got soaked then eventually took refuge in a small bookshop and browsed the people.
    I miss it.

  18. The good thing about the budget mess is that its finally coming home to roost on an LNP watch not a Labor watch.

    No one is going to believe it’s Labor’s fault after two budgets already gone and another on the way.

    So that pain they are going to inflict on people is going to still be fresh in the memory at the ballot box. Its starting to look like the politics on economics for the LNP will lead to a drovers dog election as we saw when Fraser was talking about hiding cash under the bed.

    Abbott’s legacy is coming home to roost.

  19. guytaur

    [Wow Cormann cannot crack a smile even when talking about the baby his wife is expecting.

    Trioli rattled him]

    The Belgian waffles.

  20. SK

    Newtown is unique all right. The most community I ever felt living in Sydney. Like a village slap bang in the centre of a metropolis.

  22. dave

    [ Also he garnered significant profit by cutting head counts on many of the newspapers he took over. ]

    Morloch’s genius was in understanding that the quality of the content had very little impact on the sales of his newspapers.

  23. g
    I used to hang out occasionally at a mates house in the rough end of King Street. They had an open door policy. Late one night a rather smelly hairy man walked in and sat on the couch next to me. He was completely naked. Nobody new him, but my mate quickly asked him if he wanted a drink or a toke.

  24. SK

    Open house is too much for me. I respect those that do it though. Its fear of others that keeps locks on my doors.

    In all of Sydney it is no surprise to me that Newtown had an open house.

  25. I suppose in the lose-lose situation Turnbull was in heavying the LNP state executive to ixnay Chainsaw’s move was the least worst option for him. Had it gone ahead it would have been obvious to the whole world that the Nats had a vice-like grip on his testes and were using that to direct his heart and mind.

    Now he just has:
    – a Deputy PM who has proven he’s happy to undermine him,
    – a junior coalition partner quietly seething and thinking the Libs have no problem with McGauran heading their way, but when the boot’s on the other foot…
    – The Nats still saying hey about that extra ministry, a 3.59 quota don’t round to 3 Malcolm even on the current numbers and well Mal Brough…
    – a backbencher who is now firmly locking into the ABM (anyone but Malcolm) team (he’ll want some friends in the partyroom), still has his preselection for the next election if he decides to stay, and has absolutely nothing to lose in making mischief,
    – the knowledge that 75% of the party members asked and 45% of the state executive quite prepared to kick him in the nuts even before he has done anything outside of the narrow confines the Nats and NJs have set out for him.

    Some might call that a pyrrhic victory.

  26. Someone has been playing with Wikipedia. Do a Google search for Bill Leak, and find:
    “Bill Leak is an Australian racist cartoonist and painter, primarily of racist portraits. He is the daily editorial racist cartoonist on The Australian newspaper. He has won the Walkley Awards nine times”

  28. Sohar

    [ Someone has been playing with Wikipedia. Do a Google search for Bill Leak, and find:
    “Bill Leak is an Australian racist cartoonist and painter, primarily of racist portraits. ]

    I reckon Bill Leak probably did that himself.

  29. OK, bludgers, help me sort this one out.

    My son is flying into Milan in January for a soccer camp. He has a couple of days to spare and wants to go ski ing.

    I’m trying to work out which is the best resort for him and how to get him there – any tips?

  30. guytaur @ 1818,

    ‘ No one is going to believe it’s Labor’s fault after two budgets already gone and another on the way.’

    The Fiberals have already got their line worked out to try and make it so…

    ‘An economic mess takes a short time to create and a long time to clean up.’

    QED Labor’s ‘fault’ for creating the mess and the Liberals can’t help that it will take them a weally, weally long time to ‘clean it up’. 😀

  32. Oh god, how naughty would I be if I copied that Wikipedia entry for Bill Leak and then went down to the coffee shop near my place where he has his morning coffee and daily cartoon planning sesh and just casually dropped it on the table in front of him! 😀

  37. *barely suppressed giggles*

    Matthias Cormann is trying to equate the fall in Iron Ore prices to the global economic catastrophe that was the GFC Labor dealt with when it comes to dealing with the Budget now. 🙂

  38. Re Zoomster @1791: Labor by itself cannot block anything. Failure to gain a majority support of Senators is a failing of this LNP government and we have so far seen no signs of this changing.

    Exactly. When the Senate result beame clear after the 2013 election, I recall that the commentary was that it was a relatively friendly Senate for the Coalition. Unlike the old Senate, the Greens no longer held the balance of power. The composition was:

    Government: 33
    Other Right wing: 3 (LDP, FF and DLP)
    Centrists: 5 (X, Motoring, Palmer)
    Labor + Green: 35

    It should have been a doddle – get the right wingers plus 3 of the 5 centrists on board. It is indicative of the Government’s poor negotiating skills, its inability to explain what it was trying to do and why, plus the unfairness of the changes being pushed (mostly hidden before the election, so with little or no mandate) that very little of the Government’s program got through.

  40. [Finnigans 天有道地有道人无道
    Finnigans 天有道地有道人无道 – ‏@Thefinnigans

    The Liberal Party Church is so broad that it had to stop members from leaving it #MaccaGate
    2:38 PM – 14 Dec 2015
    4 RETWEETS3 LIKES]

  43. Turnbull through his media lackeys seems to be taunting McFarlane, Truss and the Nationals over Ian’s stumble. You can bet that those on the receiving end are plotting there revenge on Malcolm right now. Turnbull’s gloating will be his downfall.

  46. guytur

    [ @crikey_news: [FREE] The Oz says yesterday’s Leak cartoon wasn’t racist & critics didn’t get the joke: https://t.co/vRFwqn07Q3 https://t.co/M5EKRD8usQ ]

    I find it hard to believe the Australian’s defence of Bill Leak anything other than gobsmacking …

    [ “The cartoon does not intend to ridicule Indians but the climate change activists who would send poor people solar panels rather than give them something they need — cheap power” ]

    Words fail.

  47. Simon/Guytaur, were you ever Sando regulars? It was pretty much my loungeroom for most of the 90s. Matter of fact, I was there last weekend and will be again this weekend.

Comments Page 37 of 41
1 … 36 37 38 … 41

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *