BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Coalition

Malcolm Turnbull and his government take a bit of a knock on this week’s poll aggregate readings, while remaining in a well and truly commanding position.

The Coalition loses a coat of paint or two in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, as last week’s strong result from ReachTEL washes out of the system and only relatively modest results from Newspoll and Essential Research emerge to take its place. The two-party trendline shown on the sidebar is now pointing downwards for the first time on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. However, this has only made one point of difference to the seat projection, with Labor making a gain in New South Wales. There are new results on leadership ratings this week from both Newspoll and Essential, the former of which was fairly soft for Malcolm Turnbull by his standards. That causes a slight dip in his net satisfaction reading, although there’s no movement on preferred prime minister.

Preselection news:

• The Fairfax papers report that Bronwyn Bishop remains determined to seek another term as member for the blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Mackellar, despite her 73 years and downward career trajectory. The report says that the party’s hard Right faction has “abandoned Mrs Bishop over her perceived treachery against Mr Abbott, but it has little sway in Mackellar and it remains to be seen whether the left and centre right factions will use their numbers to protect her from challenge at preselection”. She appears likely to face a challenge from Jason Falinksi, chief executive of a health care supplier and a former Warringah councillor, whose party activities included the then-important job of campaign manager to Malcolm Turnbull when he first ran in Wentworth in 2004. Others mentioned are Jim Longley, who held the state seat of Pittwater from 1986 to 1996, and whose name comes up intermittently in relation to a possible comeback; Paul Nettelbeck, marketing director at Southern Cross College; and the one confirmed starter, Bill Calcraft, a businessman and former national rugby union player.

• The ABC reports the Nick Xenophon Team has unveiled its first tranche of five candidates for the next election, and taken the advantage of the opportunity to emphasise the national scale of its ambitions. Only two of the five are seats in South Australia, the only state where it stands to be seriously competitive. Matthew Wright, an emergency physician at the Flinders Medical Centre, will run against Christopher Pyne in Sturt, while Mayo MP Jamie Briggs will have to face one of his former staffers – Rebekha Sharkie, who has also worked for state Liberal MPs Isobel Redmond and Rachel Sanderson. The other three are Marie Rowland, a psychologist and counsellor, who will run in Tony Abbott’s Sydney seat of Warringah; Nancy Bassett, a consultant to Challenge Mining, who will run against Kelly O’Dwyer in the Melbourne seat of Higgins; and Josie Townsend, a “former publicist who now runs a marketing business specialising in start-up businesses”, who will run in the Toowoomba-based Queensland seat of Groom against Ian Macfarlane, who recently defected from the Liberal Party to the Nationals, although both are under the Liberal National Party umbrella in Queensland for electoral purposes.

• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports seven candidates have emerged for the Labor preselection to succeed Kelvin Thomson in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills: Mehmet Tillem, who held a Senate seat in 2013 and 2014 and now works for Victorian Small Business Minister Philip Dalilakis; Josh Funder, a funds manager and former Yarra councillor; Anna-Maria Arabia, policy director to Bill Shorten; Peter Khalil, a former SBS executive; a funds manager and former Yarra councillor; and two Moreland councillors, Lambros Tapinos and Meghan Hopper. I had a good deal more to say about the situation in Wills in a piece for Crikey last week.

• Also from me in Crikey: a post-match report on the North Sydney by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,015 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Coalition”

Comments Page 38 of 41
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  2. still deserves a fourth seat around the cabinet table despite Liberal Ian Macfarlane’s failed bid to switch party camps.

    The LNP’s state executive on Monday refused to support the former minister’s attempt to switch to the Nationals partyroom.

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/12/15/macfarlane-to-reconsider-future.html?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=566f154504d3011a4a2a783b&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter#sthash.Qt9VGD0u.dpuf

  3. Vic,

    Ha, like I said the Nats ain’t going to let go of the idea that they’ve been ripped off a cabinet post. They’ll be filthy at being denied McFarlane and doubly at being made to look like chumps. They’ll be looking at Brough’s spot as the perfect chance for Turnbull to fix two problems at once.

    Still more to play out on this one.

  7. BB

    If you’re still around, loved your earlier post with the jilted lover metaphor. You certainly have a way with words, not mention a wide range of life experiences you can draw upon.

    Keep up the good work.

  8. ABC News ‏@abcnews 7m7 minutes ago
    #BREAKING: Former federal MP #CraigThomson has been ordered to pay $458,000 for breaching the Fair Work Act

    There goes his holiday money!

  12. [Advance Australia
    Advance Australia – ‏@Vote_Labor

    Australia’s debt set to reach $600b. The LNP has managed to double debt & deficit in one term, with no GFC, whilst still attacking poorest.
    3:33 PM – 14 Dec 2015
    6 RETWEETS4 LIKES]

  13. How sky news is reporting it

    [Sky News Australia – Verified account ‏@SkyNewsAust

    #BREAKING: The Federal Court has ordered ex-Health Services Union boss Craig Thomson to pay $80,050 in fines and $378,000 in compensation.]

  23. The possibilities of Jackson being up before the beak at Fair Work seem slim to me.

    Who among the Commissioners there would NOT have a conflict of interest?

  24. lizzie,

    ‘I hope Credlin and Abbott are satisfied now that they have broken the spirits of two men and financially ruined them.’

    One day, probably when Credlin and Abbott are safely away from having their hands on the levers of power, however remotely, someone will spill all of their dirty little secrets in a tell-all book. You can be sure that a Dirt File exists.

  28. Dirt files are one thing.

    Employing the services of the judiciary and prosecutorial arms of federal and state police are another.

    We have seen this done now with Slipper, Thomson, Rudd, Gillard, and Shorten, just to name some major targets of Abbott’s revenge.

    We have seen the real liars and cheats – the Broughs, the Roys, the Jacksons, the Lawlers, the Blewitts – rewarded with either promotion, payment of large sums of public money for questionable leave, or a very light inquisitorial touch from the same legal and investigative organizations.

    Live have been ruined, fortunes spent and lost, and homes broken, while the real bastards walk away smiling arrogantly and lying outrageously.

  31. [ Michelle Guthrie … was legal director at FOXTEL, an executive at BSkyB in London and chief executive of News Corp’s Hong Kong-based pay TV business, Star. ]

    Seriously? Dropping someone with a history of such blatantly close connections to Murdoch into our public broadcaster? Fwark. 🙁

  34. Whoever is charged and convicted for their brutal murders sounds like a good candidate for bringing back the death penalty.

    And YES we should have a Plebiscite on that one too…

  40. [michael park
    michael park – ‏@hapsterpark

    Darwin Port Inquiry:the primary document covering the lease deal is called the Deed of Licence and is not publicly available
    3:57 PM – 14 Dec 2015
    4 RETWEETS]

  42. [Mr Denmore
    Mr Denmore – ‏@MrDenmore

    So when Labor’s in office rising deficits reflect waste & mismanagement. But when the LNP govern it’s due to iron ore prices & flat wages?
    12:30 PM – 14 Dec 2015
    70 RETWEETS37 LIKES]

  44. c@tmomma

    Bruce Guthrie is now editor of the New Daily. He sued his former employer Murdoch a few years ago and wrote a book. Man bites dog.

  47. [“Sack Bill Leak: witless racist deadbeat.”]

    Lefties very butt hurt after Cartoonist makes joke about Solar Panels.

    I mean talk about Precious…

  50. Rex

    [ So, the ABC has been officially Murdoched. ]

    It would appear so. He couldn’t buy it, so the LNP have “gifted” it to him.

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