The procession of state results from Newspoll continues courtesy of The Australian, today being a South Australian poll conducted from October to December from a sample of 849 respondents. In keeping with a national trend of movement towards the conservatives since the demise of Tony Abbott, this result has Labor’s two-party lead down to 54-46 from 51-49 in the previous poll, which was conducted from April to June. The Liberals are up five on the primary vote to 38% with Labor steady on 36%, while the Greens are down a point to 9%. “Others” is down four to 17%, a still substantial result that reflects the local presence of the Nick Xenophon Team. Despite the move from minor to major parties, the personal ratings of both leaders take a solid hit, with Jay Weatherill down eight on approval to 37% and up three on disapproval to 46%, while Steven Marshall is down eleven points to 30% and up five to 44%. However, it should be remembered that the previous poll was conducted by the old Newspoll organisation using a different methodology to Galaxy, which has since taken over the Newspoll brand name. Weatherill’s lead as preferred premier is at 42-27, down from 48-29.
Given the SA Liberal Party couldn’t organise a root in a brothel, I never predict election results until I’ve seen the respective campaigns in action.
As recent results have shown, the Libs have a spectacular talent for pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory.
Just remember the SA Labor Party won an election on 47% TPP, therefore they are theoretically up 4 points. On these numbers they’d win 6 seats off the Libs including the opposition leaders seat.
Well, they can’t blame Abbott now.
Maybe it’s time for the Libs to actually develop policy, be a visible opposition and learn to appeal to Adelaide voters, rather than just the country ones.
Or they could just continue focusing on desperate attacks and getting staffers to post talking points on the #saparli hashtag on Twitter 😛
http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/01/13/if-you-cant-be-with-the-govt-you-love-love-the-one-youre-with/
[If you can’t be with the govt you love, love the one you’re with
Myriam Robin | Jan 13, 2016 1:04PM
Most voters seem pretty content with their current state leaders, according to Essential.
…………….
South Australian voters are also very happy with their choices. Jay Weatherill leads a 14-year-old Labor government that has lost the two-party preferred vote the last two elections, nonetheless clinging onto power through highly targeted campaigning in marginal electorates. In South Australia’s last state election in March 2014, Labor secured only 47% of the state vote after preferences. But since then it’s clawed back ground, now leading the Liberals 54% to 46% on a two-party preferred basis, according to Essential.]
Full data in this link
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Essential-Report_statevoting_Dec2015.pdf
Some form of proportional representation really does seem to be the way to go in South Australia. I’m rather surprised that the Libs arn’t pushing for that instead of fot contorting all the electorates in to bizarre shapes, which will probably come back to bite them in the future when demographics inevitably shift.
Willing to be howled down but isn’t there something faintly undemocratic about requiring the electoral commission to determine boundaries on the basis projected 2PP? Am I correct in thinking that is what the act requires?