Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slight movement to Labor in Essential Research’s first poll for the year, which also finds that Labor and Coalition voters feel almost exactly the same way about the US presidential election.

Essential Research has opened its account for 2016 with a poll that records a one-point shift away from the Coalition off what was already a very low base for them, relative to the other pollsters. Compared with the last poll in mid-December, the Coalition is down a point to 44%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 35% and 10%. This being the first result of the year, the result encompasses 1011 respondents polled from Friday to Monday, rather than Essential’s usual two-week rolling average. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings for the leaders, which find Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 51% and up two on disapproval to 25%, while Bill Shorten is exactly unchanged at 27% and 47% respectively. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is down from 54-15 to 51-18.

The poll also has a straightforward question on favoured candidate to win the US presidential elections, offering four named options: Hillary Clinton on 40%, Donald Trump on 12%, Bernie Sanders on 6% and Ted Cruz on 2%, leaving 8% for “someone else” and 32% for “don’t know”. Remarkably, breakdowns by party support show statistically identical results for Labor and Coalition supporters (but nearly ten times as much support for Sanders among Greens voters). Further questions find consistent agreement that sexism and discrimination against women exists to at least some extent in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (from 58% to 62% opting for a lot or some), but less so in schools, where 44% opted for a lot or some, and 41% for a little or none.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. @Zoomster/547

    Yes because they would be in danger of more Funding cuts right?

    @bemused/548

    It’s not just the story from 2013, it seems he wasn’t able to comment on NBN since then, especially up-to the last election.

    & Now Turnbull has got his own get out of jail card because he is now PM, and out of his communications portfolio.

  2. kakuru

    [ Dick Smith in the hunt for Mackellar? (I enjoyed the ‘famous aviator’ gag.)]

    Typical Dick Smith publicity seeking. He’s full of it.

  5. zoidlord@551

    @Zoomster/547

    Yes because they would be in danger of more Funding cuts right?

    @bemused/548

    It’s not just the story from 2013, it seems he wasn’t able to comment on NBN since then, especially up-to the last election.

    & Now Turnbull has got his own get out of jail card because he is now PM, and out of his communications portfolio.

    You are very excitable and jump at shadows.

  6. I see that the latest plan to gut the ABC is to split it into Nationalist and non-Nationalist functions.

    The good old Nats: forever trying to disrupt the Digital Disruption.

  8. C@t from this morning…
    [Simon Katich @ 277
    ‘ Hmmm. 51-49’
    Don’t get too excited, Newspoll and the Coalition loving Ipsos are yet to report.]

    Yes yes, just partaking in some Tom-trollery.

  9. TBA
    [“I think the Second-Coming of Christ has more chance of happening than the second-coming of Abbott.”

    Margie might disagree with you there]

    Boom boom tish.

    Only it doesnt count if she isnt in the room.

  10. BK, I noticed that article in the Courier. Very interesting. I am sure the Liberal Party support network will kick in and help him through his troubles.

    Not.

    Watch your six, Jamie boy.

  18. [Muslim child reported to police for a spelling mistake. He’s now afraid of writing. Security panic goes peak absurd.]

    ISIS must just love this rubbish.

  19. A minister [Morrison] of this government allowed an organisation, responsible to his Department, to fail to properly investigate numerous allegations of sexual abuse and self harm to those in its care.
    The Dept then blamed not the organisation concerned but those it believed [?] to be reporting such incidents.

    The Dept, with the tacit approval of the Minister, sacked the workers doing the reporting.

    Without evidence that such was appropriate, based on ‘no reliable evidence’ as stated by the independent inquiry into such.

    The Minister, Morrison, then repeated those false allegations to the Australian public and someone [?] leaked false information to the Daily Telegraph which furthered repeated the false allegations.

    Again, these are the conclusions of an independent inquiry into the matter.

    This requires the resignation or sacking of Morrison.
    An apology, whilst required, is less than minimal in itself.

  24. Re the earlier discussion regarding Pyne backflipping and supporting some Belgian entepreneur to revive the SA automobile industry.

    Bear in mind that he only has to support it until the election.

  25. Boris,

    [Are we talking about dick smith if he decides to challenge browny?]

    Dick Smith won’t be standing for anything other than a bit of press coverage.

  31. [“WTF

    Are airline passengers ‘lefties’?”]

    Yes.

    I can confirm people flying in and out of Canberra are almost certainly lefties.

  32. Who cares if Tony Abbott runs for his seat again.

    Rudd ran for his seat after he was knifed in the back by Jules, so I don’t see why the media are having a whinge about Abbott

  34. [Who cares if Tony Abbott runs for his seat again.

    Rudd ran for his seat after he was knifed in the back by Jules, so I don’t see why the media are having a whinge about Abbott]

    So the public can be concerned about serious interpersonal conflict between the PM and the person he replace should he be re-elected. Best if they elect a united Labor Government under Bill Shorten and avoid a repeat of this silliness.

    Couldn’t agree with you more.

  37. [“A minister [Morrison] of this government allowed an organisation, responsible to his Department, to fail to properly investigate numerous allegations of sexual abuse and self harm to those in its care.”]

    Other than here say and chitter chatter, is there actually any proof of sexual abuse in the detention centres?

    There have only been a handful of cases where those making the allegations actually took them to the police and made a formal pen to paper complaint to police.

    One of them was a Somali woman who claimed she was raped in a cave by Naruan men and just so happened to have 2 mobile phones(yes.. 2!) on her so she could record her call to police on video and then was nice enough to forward it to the ABC so they could play it on their nightly news.

    The police invetigated the matter and this was their findings:

    1. Sperm tests on the woman who was taken to the hospital came back as negative(aka no sexual contact)

    2. The “cave” she claimed she was raped in was never found… in other words it doesn’t even exist

    3. There were no signs of bruises, scratches, or head trauma despite her claims of being bashed and raped

    4. Her clothes were not ripped or damaged in any way.

    In conclusion… SHE LIED. Her whole story was bullshit and the ABC of course swallowed it hook line and sinker.

    We know why these people make these stories up, it is to try and seek a political outcome to get to Australia. Sexual abuse is a very serious matter.. very serious indeed, and people using FALSE claims to try and manipulate the Australian public are a disgrace.

    I take any further claims by these people on Nauru with a huge grain of salt because they have a motive to make them up, but IF we are to make the allegations these sexual assaults occured.. lets do so in a COURT OF LAW, not a media circus of made up rubbish.

  38. TBA
    [Rudd ran for his seat after he was knifed in the back by Jules, so I don’t see why the media are having a whinge about Abbott]

    The media whinging about Abbott running is all in that tiny mind of yours…

  39. [I can confirm people flying in and out of Canberra are almost certainly lefties.]

    Yep. When Adam Giles and Colin Barnett and Mike Baird fly into Canberra for meetings they suddenly get a leftie lobotomy in mid air.

  42. Richard Tuffin
    Richard Tuffin – ‏@RichardTuffin

    @StevePriceMedia has confirmed on @theprojecttv that Tony Abbott is determined to have a crack at becoming Australian PM again]

  43. Steve777,

    He’d most likely run for the Senate under that scenario with a coterie of supporters around the country. Abbott would be returned in NSW and probably a few others on his coat tails. It’s the resurgent DLP scenario.

  47. [I can confirm people flying in and out of Canberra are almost certainly lefties.]

    Cory Bernardi, of course, always drives to Canberra to avoid the evil leftie vapours that are emitted by airline air conditioning units while the planes pretend to be innocently circling Canberra Airport waiting to land.

  48. Alleluia

    Channel 9 engage an Indian cricket commentator who rightly says the Aussie attack is crap. Mark Taylor reluctantly agrees and Ian Healy is awaiting instructions.

  49. GG. @593: yesI think you’re right. If Abbott is re-endorsed for Warringah he’d run as a Liberal and ditch them later if he doesn’t get a ministry. If he does, we can be certain that Malcolm is so weak he can’t possibly last and will soon be replaced by Abbott or another far right wing-nut.

    Hopefully, if Labor doesn’t win, we get the first scenario and the ‘Liberals’ unravel.

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