Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll drops a bombshell with a poll showing Labor drawing level with the Coalition on two-party preferred.

The Australian has a surprise in store tomorrow, with the latest Newspoll survey showing the two parties at level pegging on two-party preferred, wiping out a 53-47 lead to the Coalition at the last poll three weeks ago. The Coalition is down three on the primary vote to 43%, Labor is up one to 35%, and the Greens are up one to 12%. This has been reflected in personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 48% and up seven on disapproval to 38%, while Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 28% and down three on disapproval to 57%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 59-20 to 55-21. The poll also finds 47% support for Labor’s negative gearing plan, with 31% opposed and 22% undecided. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday by Galaxy Research from a sample of 1807, contacted online and through automated phone polling. UPDATE: Also from Newspoll are results on “words used to describe the leaders” and “best leader to handle issues.

Note that there are a further two new posts beneath this one, one providing a forum for discussion on Senate reform and double dissolution talk separate from the main thread, the other being the return of Seat of the Week.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Roy Morgan finds no change on a much improved result for Labor a fortnight ago, with the Coalition again leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred. The primary votes are Coalition 43.5% (steady), Labor 29.5% (up 0.5%) and Greens 15% (down one). The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3116.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 52-48 to the Coalition, but Labor’s primary vote has bounced back two points to 35% after dropping the same amount last week – unusually volatile behaviour for this series, which provides a rolling average of two weekly results. The Coalition is up a point to 44%, with the Greens down one to 10%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions divided the sample into two halves and asked a separate question on negative gearing: a straight one on reform “so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for
investments in newly built homes”, and another attributing the policy to Labor. The switch made surprisingly little difference: the former had 38% approval and 28% disapproval, the latter 37% and 32%, with moderate variations between Labor and Coalition voters cancelling out in the totals. Other results find 31% approval and 54% disapproval of cutting Sunday penalty rates in hospitality, entertainment and retail, and grim assessments on the health of the economy and respondents’ financial wellbeing – only company profits perceived as having improved over the past year, and very large majorities rating that the cost of living has worsened. The poll was conducted online, over two weeks from a sample of 2017 in the case of voting intention, and Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1002 for the rest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,223 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. [My understanding is that is definitely the case.]

    So you could get in negatively geared, but not by much and use your losses as you crossed into positive geared territory.

    I don’t mean it as a criticism of the labor policy, but really it is a very light touch policy indeed. No one could be taken seriously when doing a scare on it.

  2. [the way Turnbull and his crew are going at the moment, it’s possible we’re going to find out.]

    As you know I disagreed strongly with you that Turnbull would be a formidable adversary.

    But I’ve gotta say the depths of sheer ridiculousness he’s stooped to the last two days are even beyond my extremely low opinion of him.

    He may arrest his slide, or a black swan might save him, but at the moment I think he’ll be in an election losing position by April. Originally I thought Labor wouldn’t get him until the budget.

  3. WWP

    I am quoting from
    http://www.alp.org.au/negativegearing

    From 1 July 2017 losses from new investments in shares and existing properties can still be used to offset investment income tax liabilities. These losses can also continue to be carried forward to offset the final capital gain on the investment.

    Many people including the Kouk seem to have missed this important part.

    Does Labor let you negative gear commercial and industrial property? There is no mention of this so I think it would depend on the business structure. An individual wage earner with an investment property would not be able to NG existing property. However, a company or maybe a trust that is in the business of renting commercial property would be able to claim the interest deductions because it is all business expenses and there is no wage income anyway.

  4. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-24/lewis-the-reason-turnbull-has-come-back-down-to-earth/7195674
    [The reason Turnbull has come back down to Earth
    Opinion
    By Peter Lewis
    Posted about 6 hours ago

    There is a disconnect that goes to the heart of the Government’s falling poll figures: the PM says what we want to hear but he is yet to convince us he can deliver, writes Peter Lewis.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is returning to terra firma after an extended political elevation sustained by our collective sigh of relief at his forced eviction of Tony Abbott form the Lodge.

    While Turnbull has sustained a smashing lead over Bill Shorten as better prime minister this does not appear to be translating into the politician’s sole KPI: votes.

    This week’s Essential has the Liberal vote down a couple of points from the 2013 election and a 2PP vote that registers 52-48 in the rolling two-week average. But like this week’s Newspoll, it is far closer to line ball if we take it on last week’s votes alone.

    That followed a week where the PM and his Treasurer seemed to meander away from meaningful tax reform after setting high expectations with a set of rousing speeches and sound bites.]

  5. [ Nah. Mal wants to talk about defence so he doesn’t have to talk about tax. ]

    Good point. But, i dont think the ALP can ignore the White Paper release. In fact they aren’t. 🙂

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/military-buildup-a-desperate-distraction-bill-shorten/news-story/12e96af502590e83201f3e0f756eda9b

    [ Mr Shorten said the government needed to demonstrate a “credible trajectory” to reach 2 per cent, rather than “just making up promises and not explaining how it can be funded”. ]

    [ “The truth of the matter here is that this government will talk about anything except economic reform and taxation. This is a government who are all over the shop, quite bluntly.” ]

    That said, yup, its time for the ALP to come out with a little more policy to keep up the sceer. 🙂

  6. [ but at the moment I think he’ll be in an election losing position by April. Originally I thought Labor wouldn’t get him until the budget. ]

    Hey rat, we may have a Budget in April if they are panicked enough and bring it forward. 🙂

    And wont that be a well prepared and comprehensive document wot!! You can bet the IPA have been working overtime getting it written up. 🙂

  7. [Many people including the Kouk seem to have missed this important part.]

    That bit is quite disappointing, differentiating investment and personal exertion income and then being hard on the ones actually working for a living is quite wrong.

  8. When all else fails…

    Sabra Lane does “Children in the Parliamentary sandpit”.

    They’re all as bad as each other, you know.

    Brilliant observation Sabra. So original.

  9. Chip Le Grand ‏@Melbchief 3h3 hours ago

    The major parties just blocked an attempt by cross-bench senators to establish an inquiry into the Essendon drugs scandal #nothingtoseehere

  10. Rory Cellan-Jones ‏@ruskin147 1h1 hour ago

    Break up BT, says the @FT – but I’m hearing hints that Ofcom won’t go that far tomorrow

  12. What the Government means is that Labor’s Negative gearing plan will send the price of any house you want to sell crashing but the price of the house you want to buy will go through the roof. Simple.

  14. Why does the Federal parliament need to inquire into the actions of a Victorian sporting club? What does that have to do with politics at all, let alone the Federal parliament?

    This is a sporting issue, and as such should be managed by that sport’s peak body; in this case, the AFL.

    I know I’m probably missing something, but I just don’t get why this is still a live issue. They took performance-enhancing drugs, they got caught, they got punished.

    End of story, I would have thought.

  15. phoenex

    [he Third Army alone with very little help and with damned few casualties, could lick what is left of the Russians in six weeks.]

    There’s any number of colourful quotes from the very confident Paton.

    The one above is optimistic in the extreme. The Americans had the logistics on their side but not the troop numbers to beat at that point a Russia that was prepared to lose even more troops than them. There’s not much doubt the Russians won the war in Europe.

    The ‘end’ of WWII and the emergence of the Cold War a very interesting subject.

    Sorry I’ve taken hours to respond but family intervened.

    r
    TC

  16. If negative gearing is distorting the market to the extent that house prices are grossly over-inflated, which if you take Malcolm at face value, is what he apparently believes, that is a very good reason to get rid of negative gearing. Someone with a public profile should say that (but not a senior Labor figure).

  17. Murdoch’s mob reports the Shorten- Bernardi incident rather strangely.
    BS is talking to reporters and CB “happens to walk past..”.

    Really?
    Just happened to walk past at that precise time?
    Clearly not closely enough to gather what BS was saying – you can see that on the video footage.
    BS says ‘That’s the chap”.
    Rather innocuous statement isn’t it?
    And CB responds with an insult.
    “You’re a fraud”

    And so it ensues.

    Bernardi knew what BS was talking about at the presser and set out to heckle.

  18. CTar1@2165

    phoenex

    he Third Army alone with very little help and with damned few casualties, could lick what is left of the Russians in six weeks.


    There’s any number of colourful quotes from the very confident Paton.

    The one above is optimistic in the extreme. The Americans had the logistics on their side but not the troop numbers to beat at that point a Russia that was prepared to lose even more troops than them. There’s not much doubt the Russians won the war in Europe.

    The ‘end’ of WWII and the emergence of the Cold War a very interesting subject.

    Sorry I’ve taken hours to respond but family intervened.

    r
    TC

    Read ‘The Cold War and Its Origins, 1917-1960’ – D. F. Flemming.

  20. [ don’t mean it as a criticism of the labor policy, but really it is a very light touch policy indeed. No one could be taken seriously when doing a scare on it.]

    If someone plans to buy property as an investment and doesn’t do the kind of homework that tells them this, they deserve to go arse up. Seriously, someone buying a property worth 400k up who doesn’t do their sums and assess the likelihood of the property going through a flat or negative period can’t complain.

  25. I liked this comment at the Guardian

    [LOL

    Don’t waste your time looking for small ‘l’ liberals.

    Howard with the like of Minchin and Kroger still rule the Liberals – if you want an example have a look at the latest young earth creationist recruit in Canning.

    There is no Abbott team (he won’t be restored).

    It will be a free for all amongst the hard right nutters (or ‘Taliban’ as they are known in the NSW factional anything but civil war) Morrison will probably win out … until the next spill ..].

  27. Thanks for that link. Gee what happened in about 1996, something really screwed housing affordability from that point?

    In the early Howard years, interest rates dropped back from historically high levels. House prices moved up to compensate.

  28. Donald Trump thrashed Marco Rubio 46 to 24 in the Nevada caucuses. Ted Cruz was third on 21.

    Donald Trump has won three of the four contests so far. He came second in Iowa.

    Trump attacks neoliberal orthodoxy from a right-wing nationalist perspective. Sanders attacks neoliberal orthodoxy from an egalitarian socialist perspective. Clinton upholds neoliberal orthodoxy.

    In a cycle in which voters are heartily sick of the damage done by establishment players, Democrats would be foolish to nominate Clinton to contest a general election against Trump.

  29. victoria

    Fitting that the size of Howard’s win in the internal Wets vs Dries war will cause their horrible defeat nationally. Tragically not before the bustards had many years doing damage to Australia.

  30. In response to both this from Paul @2153:

    [Does Labor let you negative gear commercial and industrial property? There is no mention of this so I think it would depend on the business structure. An individual wage earner with an investment property would not be able to NG existing property. However, a company or maybe a trust that is in the business of renting commercial property would be able to claim the interest deductions because it is all business expenses and there is no wage income anyway.]

    …and this from poroti (and vic):

    [Gee what happened in about 1996, something really screwed housing affordability from that point ? ;)]

    That’s an overlooked point – if either of the changes Labor are proposing does damage to the housing market, it will be the CGT changes, not the NG changes.

    If all of a sudden the tax take at the end of a -ve geared investment is double, that will cut the demand for investment properties.

    Specifically, it will lower the price at which investors are willing to purchase an IP that earns given amount of rent. Lower after-CGT gains at the end mean that investors cannot ‘lose’ at much on the way through, by way of higher loan repayments on a higher principle, and still come out on top.

    The remaining 25% discount is only available to individuals, so they still retain an advantage over corporate entities in purchasing properties.

  31. The vast majority of people voting for Trump wouldn’t have any idea what “neoliberal orthodoxy” is. They love capitalism, considering they’re backing a child of privilege, who has made his money by ransacking low-income minority areas and building developments that his voters will never be able to afford.

    He speaks to an audience that is angry and resentful. Pissed off at the presumed benefit given to minorities, they’re angry at the idea that “their” country has been taken from them. This is the natural consequence of the Tea Party being given control of the GOP.

    Sanders? Well… I respect him, I like him. But he won’t be the nominee and I’m pleased he won’t be, but I am pleased that his ideas have pushed the campaign to the left on issues.

  32. J341983@2181


    —
    Sanders? Well… I respect him, I like him. But he won’t be the nominee and I’m pleased he won’t be, but I am pleased that his ideas have pushed the campaign to the left on issues.

    I look forward to the Nomination, Election and Inauguration of President Sanders.

  34. [In a cycle in which voters are heartily sick of the damage done by establishment players, Democrats would be foolish to nominate Clinton to contest a general election against Trump.
    ]

    On the contrary, surely she should run so that those who want people who actually know how to govern have someone to vote for. All the anti establishment people can vote for Trump.

  35. zoomster

    Why shouldn’t Democratic voters have an “anti-establishment” candidate ? They’re the ones getting screwed the most by “the establishment” .

  36. Sanders would be the President I’d want, but maybe we have to have Clinton. The risk of any of the Republican candidates being elected doesn’t bear thinking about.

  38. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/
    [The Great Republican Revolt
    The GOP planned a dynastic restoration in 2016. Instead, it triggered an internal class war. Can the party reconcile the demands of its donors with the interests of its rank and file?
    David Frum Jan/Feb 2016 Issue

    The angriest and most pessimistic people in America aren’t the hipster protesters who flitted in and out of Occupy Wall Street. They aren’t the hashtavists of #BlackLivesMatter. They aren’t the remnants of the American labor movement or the savvy young dreamers who confront politicians with their American accents and un-American legal status.

    The angriest and most pessimistic people in America are the people we used to call Middle Americans. Middle-class and middle-aged; not rich and not poor; people who are irked when asked to press 1 for English, and who wonder how white male became an accusation rather than a description.

    You can measure their pessimism in polls that ask about their expectations for their lives—and for those of their children. On both counts, whites without a college degree express the bleakest view. You can see the effects of their despair in the new statistics describing horrifying rates of suicide and substance-abuse fatality among this same group, in middle age.

    White Middle Americans express heavy mistrust of every institution in American society: not only government, but corporations, unions, even the political party they typically vote for—the Republican Party of Romney, Ryan, and McConnell, which they despise as a sad crew of weaklings and sellouts. They are pissed off. And when Donald Trump came along, they were the people who told the pollsters, “That’s my guy.”

    They aren’t necessarily superconservative. They often don’t think in ideological terms at all. But they do strongly feel that life in this country used to be better for people like them—and they want that older country back.]

  39. Steve777@2186

    Sanders would be the President I’d want, but maybe we have to have Clinton. The risk of any of the Republican candidates being elected doesn’t bear thinking about.

    Trump and Cruz are the scariest.

  42. …addendum. But if Sanders is viable (as in, has a realistic path to win the nomination, not just could win) after March 16, then we’ll talk, but he’s BURNING through cash and will need to show real and building strength in order to restore his bank balance.

  43. so we have shorten for an election? anyone done a pub test on him lately?
    and the greens reforming senate at worse possible time (their meg lees moment)
    an australia selling off the farm literally and every other sense
    a decade a madness … or is it two ?

  44. @2193 – I sense a little more grudging respect for Shorten of late. Shorten’s surge in 2014 was essentially based on not being Abbott. Getting people to get him, on his own merit is the longer, slower task that it being started now.

  45. Clinton would tinker with policies that have caused real median incomes to stagnate for forty years. Sanders challenges those policies and opens up opportunities for improvement in the living standards of low and middle income people. It would be extremely dangerous for Democrats to nominate someone who promises business-as-usual and who embodies crony capitalism at its worst when the GOP nominee offers a right-wing nationalist version of an anti-neoliberalism campaign. If the GOP has an anti-neoliberalism candidate, it is particularly important for the Democrats to have one too. Clinton is a very weak candidate on policy and a terrible candidate in terms of authenticity, honesty, and trust.

  46. Eric Abetz is ridiculous.

    As part of his wish to see the ABC and SBS merge. He said WTTE that migrants should be able to speak English, etc. That’s besides the point.

    Migrants like me speak English, but yet enjoy broadcast in languages other than English, including those that I don’t speak a word of.

  47. LU at 2180

    [Specifically, it will lower the price at which investors are willing to purchase an IP that earns given amount of rent. Lower after-CGT gains at the end mean that investors cannot ‘lose’ at much on the way through, by way of higher loan repayments on a higher principle, and still come out on top.]

    More importantly, investors will invest in property that offers higher income during ownership, rather than a higher capital gain at the end. I’ve been banging on here for days about the fact that the current negative gearing system combined with the current income tax regime favours investment in property with a high prospective capital gain and where the income generation is largely irrelevant. Think this property in Surry Hills:

    http://www.domain.com.au/news/surry-hills-home-of-woman-sydney-forgot-natalie-jean-wood-goes-off-at-auction-20160224-gn1yvq/

    It sells for $1.1 million. If it is sold to an investor, there is no way that, even if it is fully and expensively renovated, it can begin to generate a rental income yield remotely in proportion to the cost of the property.

    If the cost is borrowed and the owner’s income is high enough to cope pay the interest (typically someone on the top bracket earning hundreds of thousands of dollars) the tax man (i.e., us) will lose the tax that would have been collected as income tax. If, say, there is net loss of $35,000 in the first year, $17,500 would be foregone by the tax office and the owner would have to pay only $17,500 out of his own pocket.

    A nurse or fireman earning considerably less than $180k per annum, and thus below the top marginal tax rate, could likely not be able to get a loan and if they do, they will have to come up with $20k or more to service the same negative gearing loss – not to mention they would have far less disposable income to do it.

    The point is that there is no public benefit whatsoever in the taxman giving a substantial negative gearing benefit AND a substantial capital gains discount on disposal for a property like the one in the example. For the same price, you could buy two units further out that would generate more income because you could house more people. But they would not have the capital appreciation in the longer term, because the location is not Surry Hills.

  48. Raaraa,

    I’m just happy for Eric that no one has brought up the topic of his uncle Otto, a Brigadier General in the SS, who was Nazi Germany’s ambassador to Vichy France from 1940 to 1944.

    It’s a bit tasteless bringing that into things, don’t you think?

  49. LU

    Saw Otto pop up in a doco on Raoul Norling’s work in Paris. Described as “an extremely cultured man” Otto’s bit part was to do a Pontius Pilate when Nordling approached him regarding some political prisoners.

  50. I for one think that’s irrelevant.

    I enjoy the occasional German language movies on SBS. Don’t get me wrong. I’ll happily watch foreign language shows on the commercial TV channels if they only they didn’t butcher them by dubbing them in English.

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