Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Newspoll result is very slightly better for the Coalition than the last, recording them with a 51-49 lead after a 50-50 result a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 43%, Labor is down one to 34%, and the Greens are steady on 12%. The leadership ratings provide Malcolm Turnbull’s first net negative approval result, with approval down five to 39% and disapproval up three to 44%. For Bill Shorten, the movement is in favour of undecided, with approval down two to 28% and disapproval down three to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-21 to 52-21. The poll also finds 55% expecting the Coalition to win the election, compared with 25% for Labor; 54% rating Turnbull more capable of managing the economy, compared with 20% for Shorten; and 45% rating Turnbull more capable of managing tax reform, compared with 25% for Shorten. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone and online surveying from a larger than usual sample of 2049.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): For the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, a poll records Labor with a lead on two-party preferred, albeit a very narrow one. The fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS from a sample of 2948, has Labor moving from a 53-47 deficit to a lead of 50.5-49.5, on both the previous election and respondent-allocated measures of two-party preferred. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down three points to 40%, Labor is up three-and-a-half to 33%, and the Greens are up one to 14%.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is still at 50-50, but both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, and Labor by two to 38% – while the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions find 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know. Another question finds no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question interestingly asks what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggest strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe