BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition

Not much happening in terms of national polling this week, but a privately conducted poll finds Sophie Mirabella has little hope of recovering her old seat of Indi from independent Cathy McGowan.

The Easter weekend has meant the only poll this week has been the usual weekly reading from Essential Research, which records a tie on two-party preferred for the fourth week in a row. Both major parties are steady on the primary vote – the Coalition on 43%, Labor on 38% – while the Greens are down a point to 9%. There is accordingly not much change on the surface of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which records a gentle move to the Coalition that yields nothing on the seat projection. However, there’s a lot going on under the BludgerTrack bonnet, as I’m now doing it in R rather than SAS/STAT, and relying a lot less on Excel to plug the gaps. Now that I’ve wrapped my head around R, I can probe a lot more deeply into the data with a lot less effort – commencing with the observation that the Coalition’s two-party vote would be around 0.5% higher if I was using a trend of respondent-allocated preference to determine the result, rather than 2013 election preferences. I’ve also done my regular quarterly BludgerTrack breakdowns, featuring state-level primary votes based on results from Morgan, Ipsos, Essential and ReachTEL, together with the breakdowns published this week by Newspoll.

Further polling:

• The Essential poll found 44% would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate blocked the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, with disapproval at only 23%. Respondents also showed good sense when asked the main reason why Prime Minister might wish to do such a thing: 25% opted for clearing independents from the Senate, 30% for getting an election in before he loses further support, and only 14% for actually getting the ABCC restored. Other questions recorded an unsurprising weight of support for income tax cuts (62% more important, 61% better for the economy) over company tax cuts (16% and 19% respectively). Results for a series of questions on which party was best to manage various aspects of economic policy were also much as expected, though slightly more favourable to the Coalition than when the questions were last posed a few weeks before the 2014 budget. A semi-regular inquiry into the attributes of the Labor and Liberal parties allows an opportunity for comparison with a poll conducted in November, shortly before the recent improvement in Labor’s fortunes. Labor’s movements are perhaps a little surprising, with extreme up and moderate down, and “looks after the interests of working people” down as well. The Liberals are down vision, leadership and clarity, and up on division.

• The Herald-Sun has a report on ReachTEL poll commissioned by the progressive Australia Institute think tank in the regional Victorian seat of Indi, which Sophie Mirabella hopes to recover for the Liberals after her defeat by independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. The news is not good for Mirabella, with McGowan recording a lead on the primary vote of 37.3% to 26.9%, while the Nationals are a distant third on 10.6%. The report says a 56-44 two-candidate preferred result from the poll allocated all Nationals preferences to Mirabella, a decision that was perhaps made in ignorance of the level of support McGowan received from Nationals voters in 2013. The primary votes as reported would more likely pan out to around 60-40.

Preselection latest:

Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports the Liberal preselection for the new Western Australian seat of Burt is a tight tussle between Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme, and Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor. Storer is supported by the state branch’s increasingly assertive Christian Right, and in particular by its leading powerbroker in Perth’s southern suburbs, state upper house MP Nick Goiran.

• The Weekly Times reports that Damian Drum, state upper house member for Northern Victoria region and one-time coach of the Fremantle Dockers AFL club, will nominate for Nationals preselection in the seat of Murray, following the weekend’s retirement announcement from Liberal incumbent Sharman Stone. The front-runner for Liberal preselection looks to be Donald McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,289 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 66
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  1. [I have little regard for Turnbull but I did not think he would be this stupid.]

    I have less and was pretty sure he would. He fell for Gretch after all. He’s smart enough to know he’s smart, but he’s too dumb to know he’s not that smart.

  2. citizen @ 137

    I agree that there is huge scope to rethink how we do chronic care, especially of the aged, in this country.

    But this government will never commit to return the money to new initiatives in the health system. They are only interested in finding ways of reducing their spending, whether through direct cuts or by pushing necessary expenditure onto other governments or ordinary people.

    So people rightly do not believe that this government is actually interested in the policy, only the money. It’s an extension of the latest tax fart, which Turnbull proclaims proudly is about ending the ‘blame game’, which is a politicians’ pastime rather than a public concern, rather than the critical policy area of meeting health and education needs and improving the substance and quality of their delivery.

    It’s part of the ongoing tragedy for this nation’s future that has been this coalition government.

  3. Itep, I know you said you’ve stopped ranting (and then, like others I could name, couldn’t resist firing a few extra shots), but let’s go back to your 38:
    [Again, overblown, the point of the Commonwealth level of government is enumerated in the heads of power laid out for it under the Constitution.]

    Well, those heads of power include:
    [the provision of maternity allowances, widows’ pensions, child endowment, unemployment, pharmaceutical, sickness and hospital benefits, , benefits to students and family allowances;]
    and extracted from the middle of all that for greater visibility:
    [the provision of medical and dental services (but not so as to authorize any form of civil conscription)]

    So I’ve never understood why Kevin07 said if he coudln’t negotiate a transfer of health to the Cth he’d ask for it at a referendum. The people voted for it at a referendum in 1946. Personally, I used to think “oh not another huge Cth bureaucracy” but having watched a crisis or two in State health admin over the last 30 years I have come to the conclusion that the Cth couldn’t do any worse.

    There’s no mention of edumacation in the Cth’s power though – so if we stick to the division of powers and ignore Cth financial dominance the States will have to keep that.

  4. citizen

    Perhaps Turnbull could bend his agile brain to an innovative, flexible solution to this problem. As far as I can see, he’s simply grabbing other people’s ideas at present.

  5. Awkward question Malcolm couldn’t avoid

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull asked whether income tax reform is a ‘double tax’?

    PRIME Minister Malcolm Turnbull continues to deny that his plan to give states the power to collect income taxes is a “double tax” but concedes that states will be able to increase those taxes eventually.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-asked-whether-income-tax-reform-is-a-double-tax/news-story/6f41849085e0f1581f9e9f1708a49545

  6. lizzie @ 138

    [Turnbull now wants Commonwealth to fund private schools, States to fund public schools. Gonski was meant to fix this problem. #auspol]

    If Turnbull was serious, he would propose taking the Commonwealth out of the education business altogether, so that States could decide the balance of support that should go to private and state schools in their jurisdiction. After all, the Commonwealth has no more constitutional authority with regard to private schools than it does with state schools.

    This is just another really poorly disguised proposal to maximise the allocation of Commonwealth funds to those the Coalition think deserve it, while leaving the ‘losers’ to someone else.

  7. TPOF 135,

    Missed the Turnbull, but saw a quick 15 sec or so of Shorten.

    I’ve been having a bit of an internal giggle when friends and family say “Shorten is improving”. “Perhaps you’ve just started listening” I think to myself…

    However… I think Shorten is improving 🙂

    The bit I previously found awkward was when he went into a kind of story telling voice, but now he has a much more matter-of-fact tone.

    Also, he has almost mastered the art of treating the camera like talking to a person.

  8. Citizen

    I am not nerarly as confident about the “home care” model, based on a sad incident I faced recently.

    A very elderly lady I know had been cared for by a GP who paid her quarterly home visits. My good friend attended her – changing her bed and shopping for her, even though she was no relative.

    My friend was busy and was worried about her and asked me to look in on her. I arrived and it was CLEAR she needed medical attention. Swollen feet, shortness of breath etc. the three monthly visit was obviously absurd – it was OK two years ago but did not adjust for this old lady’s deteriorating health.

    Naturally on arrival I rang the GPs surgery. I explained the situation and asked if a Dr could attend her. Her regular GP was away. NOT ONE of the 15 GPs would turn put for this lady. NOT A BLOODY one. Later that evening she went by ambulance to hospital, where she died two days later.

    A GP who made daily visits would have kept her out of hospital and probably alive in comfort for another two – four weeks.

    I was disgusted. i do not think the Home GP will work.

  9. [ABC News 24 ‏@ABCNews24 · 9m9 minutes ago

    State and territory ministers have signed off on a new national code to label free range eggs.#freerange]

  10. Kevin @148,

    I too was certain Turnbull would not support increased funding for education and hospitals.

    However, this debacle unfolding is much much worse than even I thought possible.

    To walk away from funding public schools completely is astonishing and even if Tunbull tries to retreat he is locked in to this no matter how much he denies.

    This is a unfolding train wreck.

    Long may it continue.

    Cheers.

  11. Tom @ 146

    A genuine atheist can neither prove, in a scientific sense, that there is a god nor prove there is no god.

    However, an atheist would say that there is astonishingly little evidence of there being a god. So little, in fact, that if humans had not been looking desperately for an explanation for things we could not explain on the basis of actual knowledge, the existence of a god would never have been hypothesised at all.

    To give an example, I could hypothesise that there are invisible weightless and formless elephants hanging from the ceiling of my house. There is no evidence for. But a scientist could not absolutely prove this is not the case, because the claim itself is of something beyond nature. So a person being absolutely scientific will say that they cannot prove my hypothesis but the likelihood of it being correct is so astonishingly small that no person in their right mind could possibly believe to be true, let alone take action based on it being true.

  12. phoenixRED 155,

    The whole idea is supposed to resolve the funding shortfall. The only way taxes can fix a funding shortfall is if they go up. Turnbull thinks he has found a way of cutting taxes and raising them at the same time. He just presents the increase as something the states may want to consider… perhaps… in the future some time…

    But if they don’t increase taxes then nothing has changed and the funding shortfall remains.

  13. [Has the Liberal Party placed Malcolm Turnbull on suicide watch? Might be an idea.]

    Given what he is doing to his own party’s electoral prospects, I think it would be more a case of tripling his security detail and doing a full body search of any of his coalition colleagues every time they approach him.

  14. Yes Jack, it’s interesting to ponder how that provision would allow for further Commonwealth involvement in health. The High Court seems, for instance, to have taken a narrow view of the meaning of ‘benefits to students’, with opinions of different judges appearing to leave some room for a broader definition. The Commonwealth, quite cheekily, still appears to be taking a broader view of the meaning of the section to underpin some of their grants, in my view unconstitutionally.

    It may be that the meaning of those words should be read narrowly, although I can’t see how on the face of it. It’d be good to test that provision.

    More broadly, I think if what a party or group of parties wants is to have a Commonwealth takeover of a policy area, the correct way to do this is by referendum expanding the Commonwealth’s legislative power and not be a fiscal takeover by stealth. If people want the Commonwealth running a school in Perth or Burnie, so be it – but that should be based off of a clear vote of the people.

    And I take your admonishment on continuing to discuss something I said I wouldn’t!

  15. K17

    [When he was selling bullshit products to fundie spivs, he knew his audience. He doesn’t know his audience right now. He has no idea what the “average” Australian wants or thinks important.]

    Exactly what I was thinking. I have no doubt he is very intelligent on an IQ scale, but his political nous quotient would barely register above 80 on the same scale.

  16. DTT

    I agree with you. I think it can be assumed that there will be tight controls on the frequency of visits which may make the scheme ineffective. We have an example in NDIS funding, too. More money for admin, less for service.

  17. CTar1@162: Completely agree with you. The idea of resettling asylum seekers permanently in PNG is ridiculous. As is the idea of resettling them in any other countries such as Cambodia that are not strongly multicultural in nature.

    Malaysia would be perfectly ok: but the Libs and Greens have implicitly endorsed Cambodia and PNG (and Nauru for that matter) over Malaysia because these hellholes have signed some stupid UN document. Let’s never mind about what conditions would be like for resettled people on the ground (Malaysia a growing economy with lots of jobs for migrants, Cambodia and PNG economically stagnant monocultures that are not particularly welcoming to outsiders): the signature on the piece of paper is apparently the only thing that matters.

    Of course, the idea of resettling refugees specifically in PNG was 100% a KRudd concept: we can’t blame Abbott or Turnbull for this great humanitarian idea. (According to Niki Savva, Peter O’Neill tried to meet with Abbott to put the idea to him, but Credlin vetoed the meeting apparently because she didn’t think PNG was worth Abbott’s time.)

    What a well-governed country (not) we have been living in since the mid-2000s. Libs, Labor and Greens have all played their part in the disaster. Seriously, you couldn’t make it up.

  18. Question @ 158

    [a kind of story telling voice]

    Yes. What some people call whiny and I see as an overemphasis on a particular point. He certainly is not a great orator, but he is improving the delivery and taking every opportunity of contrasting each successive Coalition brain fart with the suite of Labor tax policies in a clear voice.

    I think his delivery can be annoying and probably always will. He is not a good set piece orator in my view. But he does have an ability to say things clearly and directly without falling into Abbott-style sloganeering.

  19. National unions have asked for an increase of $30 per week in the minimum wage!.

    All wage earners should take note of this, for it effects MOST of the POPULATION!.
    Including those who DON’T pay Union FEES!.
    So attack Unions but please keep this in mind!.

  20. TPOF

    For the record most families vote according to the Party their families vote for.

    In my case none of our family would ever consider not voting ALP and my kids and their kids will do the same when they are of voting age.

  21. dtt @ 159

    One of the prospects of a genuine NBN, with high speed and quality uploads, would be that GP consults of the kind you are talking about could take place every second day.

    Given that the time a GP driving from house to house is a huge inefficiency, a daily, bi-daily or weekly check-in with a visual inspection, etc, and asking the right questions would be very efficient. The GP would sit in his or her office and be able to ‘see’ may 6 patients in their own homes in an hour. Obviously this would not be as effective as a face to face consultation, but much closer to that in effectiveness than having someone with no medical knowledge checking in, even on a daily basis.

    That is one of the prospective uses of an all-fibre NBN that was not quantifiable a few years ago, but is certainly the way of the future.

  22. TPOF – Off the cuff in parliament, shorten is quite magnificent. Not great “delivery” but well structured, logical, witty. He’s no dummy.

  23. Meher

    I am not sure Malaysia would be OK because of the government’s cold feet and now as we know corruption.

    Also it is horses for courses. I alwyas thought that resettling a smallish but still significant number of SriLankin Tamils in PNG could be good for the refugees and PNG. The climate is similar and some of the agricutltural and possibly proffessional and business skills brought by the tamils might have veen beneficial.

    As a location for Iranians or Iraqis used to deserts it was ridiculous.

    Now for Malaysia, SOME Tamils might fit in well, but only if adopted into the local Tamil community. Otherwise it was very risky. Some other refugees might also have made a good home there, but ONLY if all parties in MALAYSIA welcomed the idea. I saw no such welcome.

  24. I listened to Price and Bolt last night on 3aw to get their reaction to Mal’s latest brain fart. To say they were scathing about his lack of political judgement would be the understatement of the year. They see this states taxes thing as political suicide.

    And their callers were even more incensed. I was amazed at the number of RWNJs who actually said they would never vote for the Liberals while Turnbull is the leader.

    Very entertaining it was.

  25. TPOF

    Er!!! the old lady was 94. She could not use a mobile phone, let alone an internet connection.

    I understand the benefits of the NBN, especially in remote areas, but for the ageing and chronically ill it is no benefit. Perhaps when it can be connected by voice controls only at all points in the house it might work. But aging arthritic fingures cannot type, nor cn those with failing eysight even read the keyborard. Hearting is often not the best either. Would dressing is a HUGE issue for the chronically ill and the NBN will not change a dressing.

  26. Itep, re the provision of medical services: In the BMA case ( http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/1949/44.html ) Latham CJ discussed the worry felt by some that “laws with respect to medical services’ might allow the Cth to regulate eveything done by doctors, and emphasised that the para is about “the provision of” various benefits, services, etc. He said
    [it is contended, and in my opinion rightly contended, that the introduction of the words “The provision of” at the beginning of par. (xxiiiA.) produces the result that the new power given to the Commonwealth Parliament by this constitutional amendment is a power to make laws with respect to the providing by the Commonwealth of the benefits mentioned in the paragraph.]

    I tried twice to bring this to Ruddie’s attention but I expect staff were told not to bother him with emails received from the (ughhh!) public. I got a standard press
    release in return the second time. Any of you who have official positions within the ALP, please bring it to Bill’s and Catherine King’s attention.

  27. [Malaysia would be perfectly ok]
    The votes in 2011 and particularly in 2012 marked a very rough time. Somehow, the LNP got off scot-free on that one.

  28. [I understand the benefits of the NBN, especially in remote areas, but for the ageing and chronically ill it is no benefit. Perhaps when it can be connected by voice controls only at all points in the house it might work. But aging arthritic fingures cannot type, nor cn those with failing eysight even read the keyborard. Hearting is often not the best either. Would dressing is a HUGE issue for the chronically ill and the NBN will not change a dressing.]

    I’m afraid I cannot agree with this sweeping generality. Most people want to assume the elderly are feeble of mind and body as an automatic thing. It isn’t true and for those who can’t now, they’d quickly learn to use technology as needed if it is important.

  29. MTBW @ 172

    I agree that most people vote the same way they (and often their families) always have. But nobody is trying to win their vote. The people whose votes decide elections sit in the middle (and at the edges sometimes), are typically less attuned to politics and make their decisions just prior to or on election day.

    Usually, campaigns reinforce impressions gained over the course of the political term, especially towards the end. But this is not always the case. It certainly was not the case in 2010. I don’t believe it will be the case this year either. Especially with regard to the government. In that situation, every swinging vote is up for grabs.

  30. [Question
    Posted Thursday, March 31, 2016 at 11:26 am | PERMALINK
    TPOF 135,

    Missed the Turnbull, but saw a quick 15 sec or so of Shorten.

    I’ve been having a bit of an internal giggle when friends and family say “Shorten is improving”. “Perhaps you’ve just started listening” I think to myself…

    However… I think Shorten is improving 🙂

    The bit I previously found awkward was when he went into a kind of story telling voice, but now he has a much more matter-of-fact tone.

    Also, he has almost mastered the art of treating the camera like talking to a person.]

    And he has pretty much eliminated the annoying umms and aahs that always made him sound unsure of what he was talking about.

  31. dtt @ 178

    I’m looking forward. Perhaps if the scheme I’m talking about was in place, a nursing home place could have been freed up. Maybe it would not have made any difference in that specific instance. My point is a general one of how substantial new options are available that move us from the restrictions of the old model.

  32. [David Speers ‏@David_Speers · 19m19 minutes ago

    Tasmanian Lib Govt first to put a dollar figure on Turnbull’s income tax plan. Warns Tasmanians will pay an extra $4,500 a year]

  33. Socrates @66

    [most of our largest companies pay little or no company income tax. More than a third already pay none.

    Yet the Liberals are proposing to reduce company tax rates even further! Why? Because they are big business champions, who understand how the real world works in boardrooms. Hah!]

    There are a few companies – let’s call them “the good guys” – who pay 30% corporations tax, due to being focused on profit.

    The are some companies – let’s call them “the bad guys”
    – who pay less than 10% corporations tax (on gross earnings etc.) due to being focused on tax minimisation and don’t generate significant imputation credits for their owners, with the result that a lot of money is left in the company a la the American situation, though to a lesser degree

    Suppose the rate falls to 25%
    – the “good guys” now pay less – but also generate lower imputation credits so the net revenue effect is close to zero. It is good for economic efficiency as the distortion in favour of tax minimisers and against profit maximiser is reduced
    – the “bad guys” are unaffected (no revenue change), except that the effectiveness of their tax shield is reduced; this is good for efficiency as it forces them to focus more effort on profit making

    Suppose the rate falls to 25% and some of the deductions used by “the bad guys” are eliminated
    – the “good guys” now pay less – but also generate lower imputation credits so the net effect is close to zero
    – the “bad guys” pay more tax and generate higher imputation credits – hence reducing the amount of money retained inside the company and making that money available to the economy.

    The problem is tax minimisation and also the distortions that arise because different industries have radically different access to tax minimisation

    A 5% adjustment up or down (or even 10%) to the headline rate (up or down) will make little difference to revenue.

    Arguing against a reduction in headline rate on the basis of direct revenue effect is incorrect given imputation. Arguing against a reduction in headline rate on the basis of tax minimisation is at best a non sequitur (reduced headline rate cannot increase minimisation) and may actually be wrong (reduced headline rate may actually slightly reduce minimisation).

    Instead one should be arguing for reduced tax minimisation (even if one is in favour of lower tax burden excessive and contrived tax mimimisation activity is inherently inefficient). A reduction in tax minimization is not strongly linked to the headline rate in economic terms (it is valid economically to argue for reduced tax mimimisation without a reduction in headline rate). However in terms of politics there may be merit in artificially linking a reduction in headline rate to a tightening in the rules regarding tax minimisation. This linkage improves the likelihood of the change being accepted, can certainly result in increased revenue (if that is what’s desired) and by favouring “the good guys” at the expense of the “the bad guys” it rebalances the tax preference in favour of profit makers and against tax minimisers.

  34. [ I think you’re onto something here. It is possible that Turnbull is playing a high stakes game with his own side of politics: ]

    Maybe mb.

    [ So perhaps he is actually trying to wedge Abbott and the Right. After all, it’s they – rather than Shorten and Labor – who are the main obstacle between him and a second term. ]

    I can see where you are coming from, but if you are correct then the BEST he has to offer is cycling back to a GST increase?? And that is AFTER he has put a position that after careful consideration a GST increase wont work?

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-pours-cold-water-on-gst-rise-during-abc-interview-20160206-gmnka4.html

    mb, I would like to think that even those i consider political enemies are rational at least in terms of their own self interest. What i am seeing of Turnbull indicates that either he is NOT,,,,,or,,,,,he is so hemmed in and owned by the RW of the Libs that he is a complete lame duck PM.

    Libs have fwarked up, and they are facing an ALP machine that appears to be fully locked, loaded, and prepared for a maneuver battle this year.

  35. Jen and TPOF

    I am not denying the validity ion PART about your comments, but it is also silly to exagerate the benefits.

    Jen

    Sorry but when people need care because of a chronic condition it will be because on or other of their abilities is impaired. it might be dementia, but more often arthritis, mobility impairment, poor eysight or hearing. Sure people can learn technology but it needs to be learned well and truly beore they start to decline and needs to have the adaptions necessary to adjust for ageing. So for sure for many patients a regular call at say 3PM could be valuable and if skyped or equivalent it could replace many routine check ups. However if sight or hearing or mobility or memory fades it will need adjustment. If the person has ulcers or sores due to poor circulation, the NBN will not be sufficient.

  36. “Has the Liberal Party placed Malcolm Turnbull on suicide watch? Might be an idea.

    Given what he is doing to his own party’s electoral prospects, I think it would be more a case of tripling his security detail and doing a full body search of any of his coalition colleagues every time they approach him.”

    Perhaps the Labor Party can provide protection for Malcolm until the election. They might as well make sure nothing happens to Tony while they are at it, too.

  37. The libs seem to have forgotten that huge numbers of voters send their kids to public schools BEFORE they send them to private schools.

  38. [izzie
    Posted Thursday, March 31, 2016 at 12:22 pm | PERMALINK
    David Speers ‏@David_Speers · 19m19 minutes ago

    Tasmanian Lib Govt first to put a dollar figure on Turnbull’s income tax plan. Warns Tasmanians will pay an extra $4,500 a year]

    ABS statistics indicate that Tasmania has the lowest average weekly earnings of any state and territory. So as expected, those who earn the least will pay the most tax under Turnbull’s scheme.

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6302.0Main%20Features5Nov%202015?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6302.0&issue=Nov%202015&num=&view=

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