Double dissolution (maybe) minus 12 weeks

Weekend preselections have delivered a series of disappointments for religious conservatives in Western Australia and Queensland.

As best as I can tell, we have a lean weak ahead for opinion polling (at federal level, at least), as media outlets hold their fire ahead of the resumption of parliament next week. In lieu of that then, here’s a fresh new post-about-nothing – except perhaps for the following preselection news of the past 24 hours:

• The WA Liberals’ state council has overturned the result of last weekend’s local preselection vote in the new seat of Burt, at which Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor linked to a rising religious conservative faction centred around state upper house MP Nick Goiran, defeated Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme. Gareth Parker of The West Australian reports that state council will now determine the matter for itself, on the basis that the 25 branch delegates that determined the vote were insufficient in number. State council otherwise confirmed last week’s locally selected candidates, including Ben Morton who has deposed Dennis Jensen in Tangney. Also decided was a fiercely contested preselection for the state seat of Bateman, in which members of neighbouring seats sought the safer of two berths as set by the redistribution. This resulted in a victory for Dean Nalder, Transport Minister and member for abolished Alfred Cove, over the existing member for Bateman, Matt Taylor. Like the decision in Burt, this represented a defeat for the Goiran faction.

• The Toowoomba-based seat of Groom will be contested for the Liberal National Party by state MP John McVeigh, who won a preselection vote yesterday ahead of David van Gend, a local general practitioner noted for socially conservative views. This will necessitate a by-election in McVeigh’s state seat of Toowoomba South, which McVeigh held on a margin of 8.9%.

• Another important Liberal National Party preselection will be held today in Wide Bay, the seat of retiring former Nationals leader Warren Truss. The candidates are Damien Massingham, chief executive of Tourism Noosa; Tim Langmead, director of external relations at Fortescue Metals; and Llew O’Brien, a police officer. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports Massingham is supported mostly by Liberals, and in particular by Attorney-General George Brandis; Langmead’s backers include Matthias Cormann, along with Fortescue Metals boss Andrew Forrest; and O’Brien is (ahem) supported by Truss.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,113 comments on “Double dissolution (maybe) minus 12 weeks”

Comments Page 17 of 23
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  1. shiftaling @790:

    [Asha where did you read about the rail backflip?]

    On here, two pages back. Don’t think there’s been any sort of official announcement, just something someone (Lizzie?) mentioned hearing Scott Morrison saying on the radio.

  2. Malcolm Turnbull may well has his failings, but at least he has a better appreciation of art than his predecessor

    [A bust of Winston Churchill and a portrait of the Queen are among the artworks given the flick by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull upon taking office in September last year.

    He might not be pushing for Australia to be made a republic this early in his prime ministership, but Turnbull was quick to remove any reminders of the monarchy from his office when he took over from Abbott in September last year. According to Senate documents, Abbott, a devout monarchist, had a 1954 portrait of Queen Elizabeth II on his wall. It was removed by the republican Turnbull in September, and returned to its home in the National Museum of Australia in October last year.

    It was one of a total of 19 artworks that were removed in September last year, including a bust of Winston Churchill by Oscar Nemon, an oil painting by Churchill himself, and an ink drawing of Robert Menzies. Turnbull took down several pieces from the Parliament House collection, along with artworks on loan from the National Gallery of Australia, including two works by Sidney Nolan and one by Margaret Olley. Work by indigenous artists Lucy Yukenbarri, Jean Baptiste Apuatimi, Maria Butcher and Angeline Pwerle Ngala were also removed.

    A total of 15 pieces of art from the Parliament House Art Collection were installed in the new Prime Minister’s suite in September last year, including several works by indigenous artists including Turkey Tolson Tjupurrula, Queenie McKenzie, Esme Timbery and Robyn Djunginy.

    While Abbott chose to have artworks of his political heroes decorating the prime ministerial suite, the pieces installed for Turnbull do not pay homage to past politicians.]

    From Crikey newsletter

  5. Tee-hee-hee.

    [Vocational Education Minister Scott Ryan has been left red faced for giving a speech to a national training organisation that not only lifted – without attribution – quotes directly from the association’s own journal, but also praised the “current” work of an entity that no longer exists.

    Last Thursday Senator Ryan delivered the keynote address to Group Training Australia’s national conference in Adelaide.

    GTA is the body representing Australia’s largest employer network of apprentices and trainees.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/minister-scott-ryan-embarrassed-after-giving-speech-with-parts-lifted-from-obsolete-2014-article-20160411-go3raz.html

  6. MTBW@781

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/record-staff-numbers-in-mike-bairds-office-as-wages-bill-hits-56m-a-year-20160411-go3ihe.html

    Worth a look!

    I see too many of these examples these days, both in the private and the public sector.

    It seems many like to hire executives and highly-ranked project managers, but not enough lower and middle-tier staff, and leaving those staff overworked.

    In the old days, they would say “too many chiefs, not enough Indians”. Not sure if that is un-PC these days, so I tend to say, “too many chef, not enough wait staff”.

  9. 791
    A B

    AB, land tax will turn out badly for tenants. There are countless examples.

    Also have a look at the experience referred to as “the tragedy of the commons”…

  11. Icelandic PM is first cab off the rank. Several more are lined up.

    [millions of records on offshore accounts as the scrutiny intensified around officials from other countries, including Ukraine’s president.

    Icelandic leader Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson stepped aside Tuesday amid outrage over revelations he had used a shell company to shelter large sums while Iceland’s economy was in crisis.]

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/04/06/iceland-pm-resigns-over-panama-papers-leak.html#sthash.GsC5AuCo.dpuf

  16. I should have said, grandchildren are amazing because babies are amazing little miracles.

    When you are a parent, you are too stressed dealing with the reflux, the vomiting, the 20 loads of extra washing each week, and just the general lack of sleep to appreciate the wonder to quite the same extent.

    So, I quite liked my own babies, but there was always a level of stress that is not there with the grand kids!

  17. BK

    Congratulations on the new grandson! And please congratulate the parents on the excellent choice of name! Not that I’m biased.

  18. shiftaling@799

    [I have a feeling that their run ins with the miners and the gambling lobby have left Labor with little appetite for caving to special interests.

    If they have the numbers to do it in Parliament, I think they might be a bit more tenacious this time around]

    This time I hope the general public are a bit more savvy about scare campaigns from vested interests.

    I presume you can only cry wolf so many times. The mining industry has had a big downturn, despite the Libs repeal of the MRRT, and power bills have basically doubled, despite the repeal of the carbon tax.

    Whyalla is now about to be wiped out because of the poor management of the local steel industry – noting to do with taxes and workers.

  21. [Douglas and Milko
    816

    I should have said, grandchildren are amazing because babies are amazing little miracles.]
    I love the smell of new babies. There is nothing like it.

    I once asked a senior paediatrician coming up to retirement if he had ever lost the thrill of seeing and holding a healthy newborn, and with a big goofy grin on his face this otherwise staid conservative man said: Never. 🙂

    Congrats to BK and family.

    Sympathies to Raaraa and family. Lost a loved aunt to a drawn out battle with cancer a year or two back, and a good friend of 40 years is currently dealing with breast cancer. Not fun. 🙁

    All the best to both of you.

  22. Good evening all,

    I find the comments by Lazarus and Douglas re Palmer a bit of a cop out.

    I have no time at all for Palmer but both of the gentlemen now putting shit on him were very happy to ride on the back of his money and profile at the time they teamed up with him. Then all of a sudden they realise how bad he is. Complete bullshit.

    They are both just as bad as Palmer.

    Labor members who ride in Parliament n the back of labor funding and support and then leave and sit on the cross bench are weak bludgers,liberals and Nats who do it are bludgers ( although I care very little about them ) and Lazarus and Lambie and Douglas are also bludgers.

    For Lazarus, a former rugby league international, to claim Palmer is a bully is nothing short of gobsmacking.

    Lazarus , Lambie and Douglas are all guilty of hypocrisy any time they attack the character of Palmer.

    I have now had my rant for the day so a great evening to all.

    Cheers

    People who put their name next to a political party and campaign on the policies and profile of that party and then walk away and continue to sit

  24. [Treasurer Scott Morrison: “ASIC already has the powers of a royal commission and more.”]

    To which my counter-argument would be:

    [“You weren’t saying that about the Fair Work Commission.”]

  26. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 45m45 minutes ago
    Malcolm has morphed into Kevin 2013.]

    I believe it was victoria who only this morning said something similar.

  30. Randall Wray and Pavlina Tcherneva evaluate income guarantees and job guarantees:

    Income guarantee supporters champion the provision of an adequate standard of living by affording sufficient resources to all members of society. They argue that this objective can be achieved by guaranteeing a minimum income to all (a basic income guarantee, or BIG). Job creation proponents want to use an Employer of Last Resort (ELR) program to guarantee access to a job that could provide a minimum income to the economically active population. The key distinction between the two is that basic income advocates want to decouple the income-work relationship observed in modern economies, on the basis that economic justice and freedom require that resources be provided to individuals without the compulsion to work. Job guarantee supporters, on the other hand, want to address the unemployment problem, arguing that there are many people who want to work but cannot find employment.

    This paper advances two arguments: first, that basic income guarantees are unlikely to achieve the objectives of alleviating poverty, income inequality, or poor standards of living, because the proposals have an inherent highly inflationary bias that would have disastrous consequences for the currency; second, that certain direct job creation programs such as ELR achieve most of the common goals that income and job guarantee supporters share, without introducing the crucial problem of inflation. ELR programs can be designed so that they are not coercive or demeaning. Neither should they be means tested. An ELR program is neither slavery nor unemployment by another name.

    We agree with BIG proponents that basic income is needed for those who are too young, old, or ill to work and that a less generous form of BIG would not necessarily cause high inflation. However, we believe that the BIG idea of guaranteeing a decent standard of living by mailing a check sufficient to purchase that standard of living to all Americans will cause high inflation, if not hyperinflation, and reduce the incentive to work.

    http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1009629

  31. BK@828

    DDT
    7 grandchildren – 3 male (the last three) ad 4 female

    Congratulations to all concerned with the new arrival BK.

    Looks like you have me beaten on grandchildren. 3 female, 2 male and not expecting any more.

    I had a great time Sunday afternoon taking the 2 youngest granddaughters (2 & 5) to a park. 😀

  32. sceptic,
    Not exactly IPA stooges but coves by way of Rupert, and especially this guy:

    The figures would not capture the
    recruitment earlier this year of a former editor of The Australian, Clive Mathieson, as director of economic, infrastructure and state priorities.

    As editor, Mr Mathieson controversially published the salaries of senior ABC journalists, which were leaked to the newspaper.

    Fairfax Media asked, via the Premier’s spokesman, whether Mr Mathieson would disclose his salary in the same spirit, but the request was declined.

    Clive Mathieson, Imre Sauszinsky and Nigel Blunden. Who next? Miranda Devine?

  34. I have just been reading through the posts since lunch and I would just like to thank Hugoaugogo, lizzie, Airlines, MTBW and others for understanding that I am just a regular bloke (yes male) that has a different political view to many on this site. I wont be going away, this is where I get my polling information from and where I throw my two bobs worth in. Got to go Monday night football, I will be back later to check on what the polls are doing and maybe to add some sensible argument to what ever you lefties have the wrong of at the time.

  36. Don’t laugh when you read this:

    [Just three weeks out from his first budget and Treasurer Scott Morrison is knuckling down to the task.

    He’s cleared his diary of distractions, sending Assistant Treasurer Kelly O’Dwyer off to Washington in his place for this week’s G20 and International Monetary Fund meetings.

    [‘As we prepare for the budget, this is where I need to be,’ Mr Morrison told reporters in Sydney on Monday.

    He even had to cancel his weekly chat with Sydney’s 2GB radio host Ray Hadley, such is his busy schedule.]

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/federal/2016/04/11/morrison-misses-us-trip-to-focus-on-budget.html#sthash.mj5tfabD.dpuf

  42. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-11/how-the-act-borders-were-determined/7304358

    [A quick glance at a map of the Australian Capital Territory shows, for the most part, a squiggly, convoluted borderline, with the city of Canberra pushed well into its north-eastern corner.

    The experts say there’s a perfect explanation for the odd shape – and it all comes back to water.

    Historian and author Matthew Higgins knows the border better than just about anyone, after conducting an epic bushwalking trek along much of its rugged backbone.]

  46. Doyley, 822

    I’d like to give (mostly Lazarus) the benefit of the doubt here – it’s entirely possible that the both of them thought that Palmer would be a good force that’d align with their beliefs (especially since, regarding Douglas, he was a big hit in Queensland). Their resigning shows that PUP was not what they thought it to be, as opposed to their only using it for profile. Besides, it’s not like Alex Douglas got anything out of it.

  47. Apparently Shorten has gone with the Zinger that “We have an ill-fitting Treasurer” on The Project.

  49. William in today’s Crikey on Tasmanian Senate preselections. Looks like some stellar talent to be elected to represent that state. Not.

    [The selection of a full complement of Senate candidates is a significant event in Tasmania, where scarcely a street corner fails to house a Senator’s electorate office, thanks to the constitution’s requirement of equal representation for the states regardless of their population.

    For a compact Tasmanian party branch to determine the occupants of four or five of these offices entails a formidable concentration of power in a small number of hands.

    This is particularly true if the branch is under the sway of a ruling faction, which is certainly how things appear for the Tasmanian Liberals after the events of the weekend.

    The power of the right, and in particular of Senator Eric Abetz, was already evident during last September’s leadership contest, when only one out of seven Tasmanian Liberals was so much as suspected of supporting Malcolm Turnbull.

    The exception was Senator Richard Colbeck, whom Turnbull went on to promote to the outer ministry in the Tourism and International Education portfolios, partly compensating Tasmania for Abetz’s dumping from cabinet.

    The most explicit signal of Abetz’s power on Saturday was his own success in winning top position — no surprise perhaps, since his is the only name that would mean much to observers outside Tasmania.

    But the more significant fact of the Senate ticket, apart from an absence of women to match the state party’s all-male House of Representatives contingent, is that the only Tasmanian of ministerial rank was relegated to No. 5.

    Colbeck’s list of offences, as conservatives might perceive them, is actually rather modest: the mere likelihood that he supported the current Prime Minister in a leadership contest, in common with the majority of his colleagues nationally, and his reported willingness to countenance a conscience vote on same-sex marriage.

    But it seems this was enough to have him shunted from the top of the ticket, as he was at the election in 2013, to a loseable position three years later.

    As well as Abetz, those above Colbeck include two hitherto lower-placed colleagues — Senate President Stephen Parry at No. 2, and David Bushby at No. 4 — Bushby is best remembered for miaowing at Labor’s Penny Wong during a committee hearing.

    At No. 3 is newcomer Jonathan Duniam, a 32-year-old political staffer described by local observer Greg Barns as the “ideological love child” of Abetz.]

  50. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, April 11, 2016 at 7:24 pm | PERMALINK
    Apparently Shorten has gone with the Zinger that “We have an ill-fitting Treasurer” on The Project.]

    I saw that interview. He must have been practising that line as it was in response to Morrison’s claim that Shorten wears ill fitting suits.

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