Double dissolution (maybe) minus 12 weeks

Weekend preselections have delivered a series of disappointments for religious conservatives in Western Australia and Queensland.

As best as I can tell, we have a lean weak ahead for opinion polling (at federal level, at least), as media outlets hold their fire ahead of the resumption of parliament next week. In lieu of that then, here’s a fresh new post-about-nothing – except perhaps for the following preselection news of the past 24 hours:

• The WA Liberals’ state council has overturned the result of last weekend’s local preselection vote in the new seat of Burt, at which Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor linked to a rising religious conservative faction centred around state upper house MP Nick Goiran, defeated Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme. Gareth Parker of The West Australian reports that state council will now determine the matter for itself, on the basis that the 25 branch delegates that determined the vote were insufficient in number. State council otherwise confirmed last week’s locally selected candidates, including Ben Morton who has deposed Dennis Jensen in Tangney. Also decided was a fiercely contested preselection for the state seat of Bateman, in which members of neighbouring seats sought the safer of two berths as set by the redistribution. This resulted in a victory for Dean Nalder, Transport Minister and member for abolished Alfred Cove, over the existing member for Bateman, Matt Taylor. Like the decision in Burt, this represented a defeat for the Goiran faction.

• The Toowoomba-based seat of Groom will be contested for the Liberal National Party by state MP John McVeigh, who won a preselection vote yesterday ahead of David van Gend, a local general practitioner noted for socially conservative views. This will necessitate a by-election in McVeigh’s state seat of Toowoomba South, which McVeigh held on a margin of 8.9%.

• Another important Liberal National Party preselection will be held today in Wide Bay, the seat of retiring former Nationals leader Warren Truss. The candidates are Damien Massingham, chief executive of Tourism Noosa; Tim Langmead, director of external relations at Fortescue Metals; and Llew O’Brien, a police officer. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports Massingham is supported mostly by Liberals, and in particular by Attorney-General George Brandis; Langmead’s backers include Matthias Cormann, along with Fortescue Metals boss Andrew Forrest; and O’Brien is (ahem) supported by Truss.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,113 comments on “Double dissolution (maybe) minus 12 weeks”

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  2. Airlines @846,

    Fair enough. I don’t agree with you but I respect your point of view.

    Cheers and a great night to you.

  3. Yep a good zinger

    [Bridget O’Flynn
    Bridget O’Flynn – ‏@BridgetOFlynn

    Bill Shorten: I think the problem is Australia has an ill fitting Treasurer.

    #TheProjectTV]

  4. Following the VFT, there are rumours that Turnbull’s next old and mouldy concept revival will next land on “Multi Function Polis”.

  5. [Vocational Education Minister Scott Ryan has been left red faced for giving a speech to a national training organisation that not only lifted – without attribution – quotes directly from the association’s own journal, but also praised the “current” work of an entity that no longer exists.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/minister-scott-ryan-embarrassed-after-giving-speech-with-parts-lifted-from-obsolete-2014-article-20160411-go3raz.html#ixzz45Vfl7iVH

  6. On those supposed preference deals Danby made for his seat, the Victorian ALP has other ideas.

    [Outspoken Melbourne Ports MP Michael Danby has proudly announced he’ll be preferencing the Liberals, not the Greens, in his seat — but the party says, in fact, Victorian Labor, not individual candidates, will be making preference decisions, thank you very much.]
    …
    [As Crikey reported last week, the Greens need a 5.85% swing in the seat in order to pick it up, and they are targeting it — along with Melbourne, Higgins, Batman and Wills — in the upcoming election. In 2013 Danby relied on preferences from the Greens to win the seat, with the Liberal candidate beating Danby on first-preference votes.

    But Victorian Labor assistant state secretary Kosmos Samaras told Crikey the party, not individual candidates, would make a decision on preferences, and no decision had been made yet. It would be made “closer to the election”, he said.

    “Obviously negotiations take place. Negotiations have taken place in the past between the Labor Party and the Greens, and other minor parties, but we have not commenced discussions yet,” Samaras said. “It’s part of a national approach the Labor Party takes, which is to discuss preference arrangements with other political parties. At this stage we have made no such decision.”]

    In today’s Crikey. Well there you go.

  7. What’s good for the goose etc (from the same article as above):

    [Samaras warned that if the Greens continued down the path of handing out open preference tickets — in which they advise voters at the ballot box to vote No. 1 Greens and then determine their own preferences for the remaining candidates — in Labor-held or Labor-contested seats, then Labor could potentially do the same in seats with a strong Greens candidate, such as Kelly O’Dwyer’s electorate of Higgins, where she is facing competition from Greens candidate Jason Ball and Labor candidate Carl Katter.

    “We could do the same in Higgins, if that’s what they like … If the Greens continue with their approach to run open tickets in critical marginal seats which Labor contests, we’ll find ways to make their contests difficult,” Samaras told Crikey.]

    😀

  9. Not a surprise about preselections – I have explained before that candidates can make recommendations to ALP HO (and in most cases those will be accepted) but HO ultimately makes the decisions (after all, they’re the ones paying to have the HTVs printed…)

  12. vic,

    It was a cracker of an interview.

    Shows Turnbull is full of shite.

    This with the clear division today on the RC in to Financial Institutions will have a few Liberal heads spinning.

    Cash advocating a truckie strike and Alan Jones being the workers friend in Townsville tell you the situation is out of control.

    I’d say there will be a few in the Liberal camp wondering WTF is going on right now.

  13. zoomster:

    Yes I remember you making that point repeatedly over the years and therefore I decided not to comment on Danby’s announcement or buying into the hysteria that infected comments here in its wake for that very reason.

  14. It is the candidate who is elected to parliament, not the patron or benefactor who provides financial and institutional support. Patrons / benefactors just have to accept that once a candidate they back is elected that person is entitled to represent the constituency as they see fit. That’s a risk that goes with the territory of funding and organizing candidates.

  16. Was polled by ReachTEL this evening. Questions on fed voting intention, attitude to fossil fuel subsidies to various groups (electricity generators, miners, farmers, etc), and preference for funding re-allocation (health, education, deficit reduction, etc) if subsidies were abolished.

  17. vic:

    Turnbull the “part time prime minister”. 😆

    Too busy taking selfies on Sydney trains to bother with the business of governing.

  19. confessions, 857

    The only problem with the ALP threatening that is that it goes against the “why don’t the Greens target Coalition seats!” mantra.

  20. fess,

    Danby will get his way. It’s a marginal seat held by Labor since 1906.

    I’d trust the Member of 20 years standing over all the confected intelligence.

  26. [The only problem with the ALP threatening that is that it goes against the “why don’t the Greens target Coalition seats!” mantra.]

    Except the Greens apparently do this in seats Labor is trying to take off the coalition!

  27. GG:

    You may be right, in which case frothing at the mouth can commence.

    I just thought it amusing that there was all this PB angst over a decision that hadn’t actually been made yet, but instead based on an anonymous tip-off that appeared in Crikey’s ‘tips and rumours’ section.

  29. I saw the interview with Bill Shorten on The Project too and, quite frankly, I think it’s about time someone pulled Waleed Aly and Carrie Bickmore down a peg or two as they seem to be believing their own Gold Logie publicity and think they can show no respect for, and openly mock, the Alternative Prime Minister of Australia.

    Steve ‘2GB’ Price showed more respect towards Shorten, fcs!

    But no, Bickmore and Aly thought they could equate a Royal Commission into the Banking Sector in Australia with Malcolm Turnbull’s election year High Speed Rail stunt.

    So, line after line to Bill about he’s not really serious, and won’t this RC destabilise the Banks and hurt Consumers

  31. momma,

    It’s a controversial issue and Labor did vote against such a RC some twelve months ago.

    Shorten needs to be able to answer these questions up front. The media always have their agenda. Shorten needs to make sure he is ready to respond.

    The media are not on Labor’s side no matter how much you like the figure heads asking the question.

  32. View from the street:

    [This Saturday is the preselection bout for Bronwyn Bishop’s seat of Mackellar, in which the preselectors will ask themselves “should we dump the venerable helicopter-loving liability, or see if we can’t straight up lose an otherwise safe seat to Dick Smith?”

    One man prepared to put his money where his mouth is NSW’s Liberal Premier Mike Baird, who has shown the resolute decision making for which he’s so beloved by announcing that he absolutely supports Walter Villatora, his ex-campaign director who is looking for preselection as the Liberal’s candidate.
    According to Casino Mike, Walt is “perfectly suited to representing the people of Australia in federal parliament.” High praise indeed! Heck, you’d struggle to find a more ringing endorsement.

    So it’s a feather in the cap of ex-Warringah councillor Jason Falinski to have been endorsed as Mackellar’s future MP in glowing terms by no less an authority than NSW Premier Mike Baird, who enthuses that “Jason would be an excellent representative in the federal parliament.”

    And finally, Baird has thrown his weighty endorsement behind Bishop’s campaign, boldly declaring that she is “adored by her constituency and is known for her tenacious ability to take the fight to Labor” before stating “I’m pleased to support Bronwyn’s nomination for preselection.”

    And this resolute adherence to endorsing literally anyone that asks is an unconventional strategy, sure – but at least Baird can rest assured that he’ll have backed the eventual winner, which might offer some comfort for having been put his name to a bunch of losers.

    Maybe Smith should ask for an endorsement too. Heck, Baird seems to have them lying around.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-nsw-premier-mike-baird-really-enjoys-endorsing-people-20160411-go3mdr.html?
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

    Aside from the fact that Liberal women seem thin on the ground in Lib preselections, is there a greater name than Walter Villatora? If he gets elected, I vote we abolish the parliamentary convention of referring to members in terms of their electorates/ministerial titles in favour of their names. 😀

  33. I saw the interview with Bill Shorten on The Project too and, quite frankly, I think it’s about time someone pulled Waleed Aly and Carrie Bickmore down a peg or two as they seem to be believing their own Gold Logie publicity and think they can show no respect for, and openly mock, the Alternative Prime Minister of Australia.

    Steve ‘2GB’ Price showed more respect towards Shorten, fcs!

    But no, Bickmore and Aly thought they could equate a Royal Commission into the Banking Sector in Australia with Malcolm Turnbull’s election year High Speed Rail stunt.

    So, line after line to Bill about he’s not really serious, and won’t this RC destabilise the Banks and hurt Consumers?
    Plus, groan, won’t it be a waste of taxpayers’ money (which they never said about the TURC), and isn’t it just payback for the TURC and to get at the Liberal Party and their backers!?!

    To which Bill patiently replied, wtte, “Erm, have you seen a newspaper lately?” 😀

  36. Glad to hear Danby preference decision may be overruled, neither party should have a bar of playing preferences in this election, especially if a hungcparliament seems possible

  37. fess,

    The best outcome for Labor is for Bronnie to triumph.

    What else sends a message to the community that we need 73 year olds in Parliament that like to fly helicoptors and are happy to clag up a safe Liberal seat with a has been.

  38. BK
    Alexander is a nice name.

    I always quite liked the Central Asian version, Iskander. But only have daughters.

  42. shiftaling@886

    Glad to hear Danby preference decision may be overruled, neither party should have a bar of playing preferences in this election, especially if a hungcparliament seems possible

    I think zoomster has previously, and accurately made the point, more than once that order of preferences is not decided by individual candidates.

    The best interpretation of Danby’s rumoured comments is that he is seeking to distance himself from the greens.

  43. confessions, 876

    The difference is we know what the Greens preferences are likely to do (as they have done it before and haven’t seemed to have cost ALP a government because of it) – on average they take the average Greens preferences towards the ALP down from 78 to 75% – ie a 0.3% 2PP swing. This would have only endangered 1 seat at the last federal election (and none in 2010).

    The Greens have only placed ahead of the ALP 3 times in FPV – in Warren-Blackwood in WA 2013, in Heysen in SA 2014, and in Prahran in VIC 2014. In all of these electorates, the ALP HTV directed to the Greens – and was followed by 80-85% of ALP voters subsequently preferencing Green above the Coalition candidate/s. An ALP open ticket in a Green-Liberal contest is not something we can be sure of predicting – and it could end up with an election of a Liberal candidate.

    There also has not been any confirmation that the Greens will, in fact, issue open-ticket HTVs in marginals.

    I would like to point out that I am, in principle, for open-ticket HTVs issued by all parties, and Labor should run them to encourage people to choose, but to not frame it as retaliation.

  44. victoria @884,

    Thanks for that link.

    Silly question, but do you know if that was the whole interview ?

    The reason I ask is I thought the questions were ok and allowed Bill Shorten to get his point across more than once.

    Cheers.

  47. [The Greens have only placed ahead of the ALP 3 times in FPV ]

    I meant this as in they placed second or first ahead of the ALP who were in third place, and therefore their preferences had to be distributed.

  49. I’ll put in my 2 cents worth for what it’s worth (about 2 cents): Labor and Greens should preference each other as the default position.

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