Double dissolution (maybe) minus 12 weeks

Weekend preselections have delivered a series of disappointments for religious conservatives in Western Australia and Queensland.

As best as I can tell, we have a lean weak ahead for opinion polling (at federal level, at least), as media outlets hold their fire ahead of the resumption of parliament next week. In lieu of that then, here’s a fresh new post-about-nothing – except perhaps for the following preselection news of the past 24 hours:

• The WA Liberals’ state council has overturned the result of last weekend’s local preselection vote in the new seat of Burt, at which Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor linked to a rising religious conservative faction centred around state upper house MP Nick Goiran, defeated Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme. Gareth Parker of The West Australian reports that state council will now determine the matter for itself, on the basis that the 25 branch delegates that determined the vote were insufficient in number. State council otherwise confirmed last week’s locally selected candidates, including Ben Morton who has deposed Dennis Jensen in Tangney. Also decided was a fiercely contested preselection for the state seat of Bateman, in which members of neighbouring seats sought the safer of two berths as set by the redistribution. This resulted in a victory for Dean Nalder, Transport Minister and member for abolished Alfred Cove, over the existing member for Bateman, Matt Taylor. Like the decision in Burt, this represented a defeat for the Goiran faction.

• The Toowoomba-based seat of Groom will be contested for the Liberal National Party by state MP John McVeigh, who won a preselection vote yesterday ahead of David van Gend, a local general practitioner noted for socially conservative views. This will necessitate a by-election in McVeigh’s state seat of Toowoomba South, which McVeigh held on a margin of 8.9%.

• Another important Liberal National Party preselection will be held today in Wide Bay, the seat of retiring former Nationals leader Warren Truss. The candidates are Damien Massingham, chief executive of Tourism Noosa; Tim Langmead, director of external relations at Fortescue Metals; and Llew O’Brien, a police officer. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports Massingham is supported mostly by Liberals, and in particular by Attorney-General George Brandis; Langmead’s backers include Matthias Cormann, along with Fortescue Metals boss Andrew Forrest; and O’Brien is (ahem) supported by Truss.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,113 comments on “Double dissolution (maybe) minus 12 weeks”

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  2. davrosz: Bowen: Labor did not commission BIS Shrapnel report and it did not inform Labor policy as it was fundamentally flawed.

  3. 1048
    Millennial

    Labor’s -ve gearing policy will be a net vote winner. It demonstrates several things. First, in a context where most commentators are calling for a gradual return to fiscal balance, Labor have shown they’re willing to repeal costly concessions, helping the revenue position. Second, it shows a determination to fund social programs from the revenue rather than from debt.

    Third, it illustrates strength. This contrasts with the Liberals who cannot summon the courage for a single tax measure. So Labor – acting from a sense of fairness and fiscal discipline – can find their strength in Opposition. The Liberals – internally divided can find only weakness in Government.

    T may think it’s worth attacking Labor. In fact, all he is doing is advertising his opponents’ strength and his own impotence.

  4. [ guytaur

    Posted Tuesday, April 12, 2016 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    Mill

    I know of no other BIS Shrapnel report and missed which Turnbull was referring to

    ]

    It was AM this morning with MICHAEL BRISSENDEN

    Reports in News Limited Newspapers this morning claim the Opposition dismissed warnings that its negative gearing policy would push down house prices and increase rents.

    The advice was contained in research commissioned by financial advice firm Bongiorno and Partners and conducted by BIS Shrapnel.

    When the BIS report was made public last month Labor described it as a political document that had been commissioned by anonymous vested interests.

    But today’s reports claim Labor had previously been given the Bongiorno and Partners opinion.

    I’m joined now by the shadow treasurer Chris Bowen. Chris Bowen, good morning.

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2016/s4441433.htm

  6. A quick rundown on recent appointments to the ABC …

    [ http://isocracy.org/content/political-bias-abc ]

    And given the facts above, it is not surprising that this is the result …

    [ https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/abc-drums-up-appearances-for-the-ipa,4315 ]

    Progressive think tanks make up just 29% of guests appearing on ‘The Drum’. Conservative think-tank guests make up 66% . The IPA alone makes up 42%. Then there is The Drum online, which is routinely infested by articles by IPA representatives.

    And you need to know this about the IPA …

    From https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tony-abbotts-debts-to-murdoch-the-ipa-and-the-abc,6133 …

    [ Many people may not be aware that Rupert Murdoch’s father Keith helped establish the IPA — which itself, in turn, helped establish the Liberal Party. Indeed, Rupert was much heralded guest speaker at the IPA’s recent 70th anniversary celebration. ]

    This is the ABC’s idea of ‘balance’.

    Some people here on PB can’t seem to see the wood for the trees.

  8. [I rarely get anything out of Berg’s articles, but he is an important voice for balance. There’s no shortage of lefty and centre lefty views on the ABC, and however wrong right wingers are, they need to be reflected in the national broadcaster as well.]

    the ABC ‘lefties’ and balanced by the ‘righties’ such as Uhlmann, and Kelly as well as many other guests. The ABC ‘lefties’ are typically just intelligent journos and commentators doing their job at inquiring – they are as critical of labor as they are of the coalition, but the coalition screams every time they have a hard interview. sooks.

    There are way to many centre right and hard right voices on the ABC and very few (if any) moderately to hard left voices, and those with those views fall over backwards to hide or mdoerate their views to avoid attack from the right.

    If the ABC was balanced, they’d have socialist alliance nutters on the same panels as the IPA nutters. At the very least they should have someone as articulate and left as say Noam Chomsky or Bernie Sanders to take apart their spin. They would not dare because Eric Abetz, Andrew Bolt and Co would go insane(r).

    Name a single ABC guest or commentator as far to the left as the IPA is to the neo-con right. Just one will do. they would need to want to nationalise all mines, manufacturing, banks, telecommunications, transport, etc; defund all private health and education; introduce tariffs; centrally plan supply; etc, etc. Name just one. I am not saying I agree with that platform, but ‘balance’ would to have those views put forward as well.

    The IPA should have to declare their backers every time they are on, or the ABC hosts should ask them to declare every time they comment on mining, greenhouse, tobacco, food health warnings, private insurance, private health, media ownership, etc. They are paid advertising on the ABC, not ‘balance’ and need to be called out on this.

  9. The BIS document is just wrong. The reform of -ve gearing will not drive up rents. It will tend to reduce them. The reform of -ve gearing will help bring the housing market into balance over time – something that is very much to be desired.

    BIS are incompetent.

  10. 1055
    Player One

    The IPA should be classed as a Liberal auxiliary. It is nothing more than a grooming ground for hard-liners and wasters.

  11. briefly

    I would not say that about BIS Shrapnel. As Bowen stated the report had assumptions not in Labor policy. For example negative gearing applying to shares and existing property.

  12. [1060
    guytaur

    briefly

    I would not say that about BIS Shrapnel.]

    Why not? They are clearly, demonstrably, consistently wrong. As forecasters, as analysts, as advocates, they are useless.

  13. briefly

    On this issue its not BIS Shrapnel that is incompetent but the LNP using it to attack Labor’s policy.

    The BIS Shrapnel report was before and based on assumptions that are not the Labor policy.

    Using that is LNP incompetence not that of BIS Shrapnel.

    All that said I do bow to your superior knowledge of BIS Shrapnel history over time.

  14. I’ve been down the rabbit hole this morning with Dr Jennifer Oriel, aka ‘The Smartest Person In A Room Full of University Academics’ apparently, and I have to say that her work is the Summa Cum Laude of Logorrhea.

    Talkin’ About A Revolution, ‘the nascent EU-UN campaign to revolutionise childhood’! back in 2015. Who knew? 😀

    Take Dorothy Parker’s advice at Loonpond. Marvel at the self-important stupid but safe to ignore:

    http://loonpond.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/in-which-pond-thinks-of-children-and.html#.VwxRUHry15c

  15. Negative gearing purports to be a subsidy on rents. In fact it is a subsidy on the purchase of land. This pushes the price of land beyond the level that would apply if the subsidy did not exist. But the subsidy is not available to all. It is only selectively accessible. As a result, there are echelons in the housing market that cannot purchase and must rent their accommodation. Quite clearly, the effect of negative gearing is to increase the supply of tenants (also thought of as the demand for rental accommodation).

    Negative gearing is helping to create a class without property. It is a disgraceful misuse of the tax system.

  16. me thinks this is a good line for Labor. Doing what is in the national interest, not merely vested interests

    Dave Donovan
    17m17 minutes ago
    Dave Donovan ‏@davrosz
    Bowen: Should national policy be determined by vested interests or the national interest. I determine policy in the national interest.

  17. Briefly

    Labor need to broaden their message on negative gearing, not sure what exactly they should say. They need to make it clear that tax payers are generally subsidising investors

  19. 1062
    guytaur

    BIS and the Liberals should be ashamed of themselves. They advocate a policy that, left unchanged, will result in the progressive exclusion from home ownership of most people under the age of around 40. It is a policy of dispossession by stealth and by loophole.

    It is a policy that will further entrench and exacerbate inequality and insecurity. It is an anti-social and immoral policy based upon a series of lies.

  22. Sustainable future

    I suspect if you ask one of our resident right wingers, they’d be more able than me to comment on who on the ABC is considered left wing.

  24. Had a read of that Brissenden interview with Bowen.

    Bowen seems to have spoken quite reasonably on this matter of the BIS report. The Australian has tied some sort of smear on this. Tried to present that that Bowen somehow misrepresented the report and what he knew of its provenance.

    So what? Its now confirmed that it was a paper from vested interests, and all the criticisms of it NOT actually modelling the ALP policy still stand. But somehow the Australian journo’s think this will damage Bowen’s credibility? Looks to me like a rather weak smear attempt that is more likely to have the effect of keeping the Neg Gear / CGT policy differences in peoples minds which is unlikely to be good for the Libs.

    If they think this is going to panic the ALP or do them much harm i reckon they are mistaken.

  26. I[f they think this is going to panic the ALP or do them much harm i reckon they are mistaken.]

    It seems mainly to have inspired Turnbull to double down on the Abbott-style hysteria. Turnbull thinks that his standing as a ‘reasonable’ guy means that when he says something rhetorically histrionic it is immediately invested in gravity and sobriety. Instead, it chips away at what little credibility he has left.

  27. Essential fed poll

    TPP L/NP 50 (0) ALP 50 (0)
    Primaries L/NP 42(0) ALP 35(-2) GRN 11(+1) PUP 1(0) OTH 10(0)

    http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Essential-Report_160412.pdf

    Note the extra questions on leader approval, DD, ABCC, tax reform.

    I suspect the rounding overstates the ALP primary fall, e.g if last weeks was actually 36.6, and now its 35.4, that would round to 37 & 35, so it *looks* like a 2 point fall on a simplified non decimal pints table.

  29. Just on Labor’s election prospects, I expected that there would continue to be support for the government in opinion polls as swinging voters were not prepared to just jump to Labor despite their dismay at the ongoing performance of the government.

    In essence, if they don’t have to make a decision they will not make one, which means sticking with the status quo.

    I expected that the big swings to Labor would occur in the immediate pre-election period when people finally did have to make a decision and the contrast between a panicked and clueless Coalition and a stable and moderate Labor would become stark.

    I did not expect that the Turnbull-led Coalition would implode so rapidly and demonstrate its political incompetence so dramatically and repeatedly.

    It is quite possible that the Coalition’s vote will collapse prior to the budget. If it does not, then it will collapse after the budget. Immediately if the budget is as incompetently constructed as the Coalition government; by the end of May if the budget is superficially clever. But it will go. And Labor will still win and win well.

  31. [Labor need to broaden their message on negative gearing, not sure what exactly they should say. They need to make it clear that tax payers are generally subsidising investors]

    Labor might commission BIS Schrapnel to do another report, this time on Labor’s actual policy.

  33. My post @ 1078 was written before I saw the Essential results, but the results do confirm things for me.

    If I was a swinging voter sympathetic to the Coalition and sick of the constant change of leaders, etc I would be wary of just abandoning the Coalition yet. I would hang on in the hope that they will find their mojo and, particularly, that Mal would fulfil his promise and our expectations.

  34. [ It is quite possible that the Coalition’s vote will collapse prior to the budget. If it does not, then it will collapse after the budget. Immediately if the budget is as incompetently constructed as the Coalition government; by the end of May if the budget is superficially clever. ]

    I dont think we will see much in the way of change until after the Budget. Seems to me that polling changes take a couple of weeks at least to respond to an “event”.

    That said, if the Budget comes down on the 3rd, and the Govt HAS to decide if they are going a DD by the 10th / 11th, the period during which polling could be expected to move is going to be VERY intense.

    If the Govt have glossy stuff in the Budget it may take a week or two for the press to catch up, go WTF and report on any nasties.

    And then there will be Senate shenanigans over the timing of the Govt procuring interim supply??

    Kaos and volatility around the polling to come i think. End of May, might have settled into something actually representative??

    Heading into a period like that with some credible 50/50 TPP polls under their belt, united, and with actual real policy on the record is a good position for the ALP to be in. I’ll be happier if we see the ALP primary kicking up to 38 or so though.

  35. TPOF,

    As I said before, there is a resistance to swinging back to Labor precisely because of the ideas stuck in people’s head generated by the Murodch media back when Labor was in power. I’m not doubting that Shorten is playing the game well, but Labor still has to rescue its record.

    I’d like to see the polls (as in the bludgertrack) go positive for Labor before the budget. Otherwise its going to be hard. I don’t share your optimism for the polls responding negatively (for Turnbull) to the budget. Again, its all about the turd polishing and what the word on the street is. My opinion is that its going to take a particularly harsh and unfair budget (aka 2014) to generate significant swing against Turnbull. Anything less and the media will either ignore the details or tell everyone its all right.

    I also don’t share your enthusiasm for thinking Shorten will win the campaign. Actually I don’t share the enthusiasm people have for thinking campaigns actually matter. To the extent that voters think at all (and don’t just react emotionally to election time scare campaigns) they react to stuff they’ve already “learnt” from the past and ideas that have sunk in over a longer time frame. Stuff like Labor wasting billions on school halls.

    Even in the case of the NBN, the time frame is too short for the horror to sink in and this is why I’d have preferred a September poll. And I have my doubts that Labor will sieze upon the NBN as an issue (and its reflection on Turnbull’s competence) and adequately resource that issue.

    Shorten I don’t mind. But the Labor organisation itself needs to do its job better.

  36. WOW!!!

    86% support closing loopholes used by corps/wealthy by transferring money overseas;
    80% support making multinationals pay a minimum rate of tax on Australian earnings;
    65% support slugging the wealthy with more tax;
    62% support removing super benefits for the wealthy;
    66% oppose raising the GST.

    The Libs are on the wrong side of everything.

  37. citizen – Its a simplified table. When you round figures meant to add up to 100% at the end, sometimes they don’t. See these examples of the same problem in other contexts.

    http://support.datacracker.com/knowledgebase/articles/666604-why-don-t-percentages-add-up-to-100

    http://support.datacracker.com/knowledgebase/articles/666604-why-don-t-percentages-add-up-to-100
    [A consequence of not all the decimal places being shown is that if you sum up the numbers manually you may often get a different result to that shown in the NET or SUM on a table.

    For example say we have the following table shown to 13 decimal places:
    US 33.3333333333333%
    UK 33.3333333333333%
    AU 33.3333333333333%
    NET 100.0000000000000%

    In DataCracker, rounding to 0 decimal places shows:
    US 33%
    UK 33%
    AU 33%
    NET 100%

    Whereas if manually adding up the numbers you would get the incorrect result of 99%.]

  38. [If the Govt have glossy stuff in the Budget it may take a week or two for the press to catch up, go WTF and report on any nasties.]

    imaca, I simply don’t trust the press on this.

  39. 1078
    TPOF

    T is trying to sell two contradictory messages. On the one hand, there is “the most exciting time in human history” and on the other there is “live within your means”.

    Voters will not be left cheerless by the latter and they will completely distrust the former.

    So T will try to win the election by invoking both doubt and pessimism. They’re the kind of feelings you might invoke during a negotiation when you’re trying to drive down the price. They’re not the messages you would try to invoke in a shock-weary electorate – in an electorate that wants clarity, policy strength and orderly progress.

  41. victoria@1066

    Labor need to broaden their message on negative gearing, not sure what exactly they should say. They need to make it clear that tax payers are generally subsidising investors

    I find it most effect of the message that only 10% of taxpayers are those using negative gearing (me included) and that the rest of the tax payers are subsidising these 10%.

  42. Essential’s acting a bit more fluid than usual – in a month the Greens have gone from 11% down to 9% and back up to 11% again, and the ALP have covered every PV result from 35% to 38%

    Didn’t translate into TPP change though

  43. looking at those figures give some interesting insights.

    Take a look at the others column. They do not think the tax system is fair. They are angry. Not quite ready to move to Labor but winnable I think.

  44. Airlines@1091

    Essential’s acting a bit more fluid than usual – in a month the Greens have gone from 11% down to 9% and back up to 11% again, and the ALP have covered every PV result from 35% to 38%

    Didn’t translate into TPP change though

    This is all within MoE though. Essential usually rounds the numbers and the numbers are averaged over two polling.

  45. Well said sustainable future @ 1057.

    There is not a shadow of doubt IMHO that the ABC’s idea of balance is to balance hard right (IPA etc) opinion with centre and soft left opinion, anything left of centre presented as a minority view.

    The effect of this is to attempt to legitimise the views of the IPA and their ilk, and bring them into the mainstream.

    Anyone who thinks that this is purely accidental might like to buy a bridge that I have for sale on e-bay.

  47. [Sustainable future

    I suspect if you ask one of our resident right wingers, they’d be more able than me to comment on who on the ABC is considered left wing.]

    some of them are left of centre, but you NEVER hear an as strident left wing position on the ABC as you constantly do from hard right cultural warriors they have on every panel and forum. an interview with Naomi Klein every couple of years doesn’t cut it.

    Philip Adams is the ‘hard left’ of the abc – a former ad man who writes for murdoch media and is pretty well an irrelevant great-uncle figure. He has good guests and interviews well, but he’s not stridently ideological and paid for by private backers (‘though Chris Mitchell and Gerard Henderson probably think he was paid by the Kremlin :).

  48. I am leaning towards what cudchewer is saying, Labor needs to win the economic debate.
    Having policies like NG and CG changes are important as they show Labor is more fiscally conservative than the Libs.
    This needs to be hammered home like Rudd did in 2007, the interest rate rise in the campaign also helped.
    People need to be convinced it is safe to vote Labor.

  49. John Reidy

    [People need to be convinced it is safe to vote Labor.]

    I think that’s the core problem. The constant scare tactics of the media (for headlines) and the Coalition (for political purpose) provide doubt that is hard to shake.

  50. [People need to be convinced it is safe to vote Labor.]

    And never underestimate the ability of the various spivs and vested interest groups to mount a highly effective scare campaign on any number of issues.

    We saw that this morning with the ABC in concert with The Australian trying to scare voters with the (erroneous) consequences of the ALP negative gearing policy.

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