Day two: Essential, Lonergan, BludgerTrack and more

Individual polls continue to record a statistical dead heat on two-party preferred, but the BludgerTrack poll aggregate detects a subtle shift in favour of the Coalition since the release of the budget.

First up, the latest dispatches from the front:

• The preference deal with the Greens being pursued by the Victorian Liberals at the behest of the party’s state president, Michael Kroger, is meeting resistance from other branches of the party. Rick Wallace of The Australian today cites unidentified Liberal sources expressing displeasure at the idea, and gets Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz to reiterate that the “very strong view” of his own state division was that the Greens should be put last. The party’s federal director, Tony Nutt, issued a statement yesterday stressing that no decision had been made.

• Labor hit a spot of bother today in the Townsville electorate of Herbert, which it has never quite been able to pick off since it fell to the Liberals in the 1996 landslide. Bill Shorten’s Queensland road trip brought him to the electorate today, but a doorstop he conducted together with the Labor candidate, Cathy O’Toole, was dominated by O’Toole’s involving in a protest at Liberal member Ewen Jones’s electorate office in February pleading for “a more humane policy for refugees”.

• Apropos Dennis Jensen’s announcement he will run as an independent in Tangney, the Australian Parliamentary Library reviews “the electoral fortunes of MPs who left major parties and contested the next election as Independents”, going back to 1949. Out of 17 identified examples, 12 failed to win their seats (several of whom left office under a cloud); three won re-election but were then defeated at the next election subsequently; and another won re-election and then retired at the election subsequently. Only Bob Katter went on to lasting electoral success.

Now to polling. BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest Essential Research, along with state data from Ipsos, Essential and ReachTEL. The Coalition is now credited with a lead of 50.5-49.5, which is full point better than the pre-budget reading from last week. That translates into a net gain of three since last week on the seat projection, with two gains in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and the Northern Territory balanced by a loss in Queensland. At some point in the not distant future, I’ll start including state-level primary vote breakdowns and two-party results from respondent-allocated trends as well as previous election preferences, but for the time being the display looks like so:

bludgertrack-2016-05-11

Two new polls were released yesterday, and I have a bit left to say about one from the day before:

• Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average has the Labor lead down from 52-48 to 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens steady on 10%. The poll also records 20% approval and 29% disapproval of the budget, with 35% opting for neither and 15% for don’t know. Twenty-one per cent felt the budget had made them more confident in the government, compared with 32% for less confident and 35% for makes no difference. However, most of the specific measures were well supported; 69% for internships for the young unemployed versus 14% opposed; 72% for the higher tax on cigarettes, versus 21% against; 62% for capping super tax concessions, versus 21% against; and 50% in favour of company tax cuts, versus 34% against. Opinion was evenly divided on the tax cut for those on more than $80,000, at 43% for and 44% against, and there was a predictable result for “cuts of $1.2 billion to aged care providers”. A bonus survey question provided exclusively to SBS recorded a view that the budget would make it harder for young people looking to buy their first home and gain a higher education, migrant families seeking education jobs, and people saving for their retirement – but there was a relatively good result for “young people trying to find a job”, presumably reflecting the internships scheme. The poll also recorded 48% opposition to bringing asylum seekers from Manus Island to Australia with 30% in support, and 39% holding the view that conditions in detention centres were poor, versus 32% for good.

• The Guardian Australia yesterday published a poll by Lonergan Research showing 50-50 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%. It also found only 12% felt they would be better off because of the budget compared with 38% for worse off, and that 29% said it made them more likely to vote for the Coalition compared with 47% for less likely. The poll was automated phone survey of 1841 respondents conducted Friday to Sunday.

• I hadn’t mentioned the budget response results from Newspoll, which are worth a closer look. Among other things, there are breakdowns by income cohort, which you don’t often see in published polling. Those on higher incomes ($100,000 and lower) were more disposed to have an overall favourable view than those on lower incomes ($50,000 or less), but not by a great order of magnitude: 39% good and 22% in the former case, 31% good and 22% bad in the latter. However, bigger disparities were recorded on personal impact, with 11% of low-income earners expecting to be better off and 45% expecting to be worse off, compared with 29% and 27% for higher income earners. There are also interesting differences by age, with the most favourable responses coming from the young and the least favourable from the middle-aged, with the older cohort landing in between. Charts below put all this into the context of the regular post-budget Newspoll questions going back to 1988 (although there’s a slight change this year and that there are no longer neutral as distinct from uncommitted response options), and show the historic relationship between the “own financial position” and “economic impact” questions, with this year’s question identified in red. On pretty much every measure, this was an average response to a budget, although the plus 5% net rating for economic impact compares slightly unfavourably with an average of plus 10.9%. Its also a weaker than usual result for a Coalition budget, which have had historically better results (part of which is to do with the Howard government holding the reins in the pre-GFC boom years).

2016-05-10-budgetresponse

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,527 comments on “Day two: Essential, Lonergan, BludgerTrack and more”

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  2. The Daily TurdBurgler has now reverted to type, with muslim and welfare bashing replacing their brief foray into Labor/Green politics. Miranda Devine says a muslim winning the Gold Logie means Waleed Aly should be grateful to the racists in her gutter rag who bag him (must make sense to her).

    The ‘debate’ on Friday between Turnbull and Shorten is sponsored by the TurdBurgler, so expect a reprise of the infamous Rooty Hill episode with doctored peoduction techniques and Liberal shills masquerading as undecided voters.

    Election coverage is dominated by Bill Shorten ‘being caught’ using hand written notes, and a ‘nightmare start’ to his campaign due to Labor candidates questioning the indefinate asylum seeker ‘Nazi’ concentration camps.

  4. William, the graph for the 2 party preferred doesn’t seem to have updated. It doesn’t look like it goes out to 11 May, and the Coalition and Labor trendlines both finish at 50%, though the table has them at 50.5% and 49.5%.

  5. I don’t remember the”hung parliament” years as horror years. I found them exciting, but the Coalition and the media , with Turnbull out in front, are using “Horror!” to try to scare everyone to vote for them.

    Bill used ‘paper notes’? What greater crime could there be?

  6. Open revolt in the Coalition wrt their retrospective Super changes back to 2007! is leading the ABC News on the radio.

  8. The ‘po-faced’ Dutton, Gordon calls him. Jones calls him ‘a good man’. Unbelievable.

    He also asserts Anthony Albanese, who would be a senior figure in a Shorten government (if he holds his seat), gave a “train wreck” of an interview on the ABC’s Lateline on Monday night.

    Neither charge stands up, though you wouldn’t know it from the “LABOR ALL AT SEA ON BOATS” splash in the Tele or the gushing endorsement Jones gave (“you are a good man”) Dutton during their Tuesday interview.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/2016-election-the-boats-debate-we-will-not-have-in-this-campaign-20160510-gort2i.html

  9. I think BludgerTrack is about right (as it usually is) at the moment, with the government slight favourites to be returned, were the election being held this week. They have had a decent first few days, and nothing has really gone that wrong for them so far. Labor has also done OK, but they have had to play a big if defence in the last day or two, and that is then two days where the conversation is not about issues of their choosing.

    Of course, there is an awfully long way to go before polling day, and a lot can happen to either side in that time. If the Libs can keep themselves relatively together for the next two months, then I think they will end up winning. I suspect your average swinging voter is inclined to give Talcum another go, so it will take a few stuff-ups (like what we’ve seen for the last few months) for Labor to get there – it’s a big hill for Shorten and co to climb, and pretty much everything will need to go right for them between now and July.

    Most of the sound and fury in these early days probably won’t matter in the end, though, as I suspect those voters that matter won’t really switch on until after the June long weekend, so we’ve probably got another month or so of phony war for now.

  10. Morning bludgers

    C@t

    I had posted a piece last night re the “split’ in the Turnbull Govtover superannuation changes. The IPA are livid. Also remember Senator Patterson and soon to be Tim Wilson in the parliament, who are IPA luvvies.

    Having said that retrospective changes are never welcome

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    In an editorial the SMH comes out and says that Chris Bowen offers plausible economic management.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/election-2016-chris-bowen-offers-plausible-economic-management-20160509-goqdr9.html
    And Laura Tingle tells us that Chris Bowen showed us how it’s done. While the prime minister and his colleagues were out on the hustings on Tuesday saying “blah blah blah”, economic plan, etc etc, Labor’s Chris Bowen gave his address in reply to the budget. And then he actually answered journalists questions. Google
    /news/politics/election/election-2016-chris-bowen-shows-it-is-done-20160510-gorsba
    Michelle Grattan says aspiring Treasurer Bowen looks fit for purpose . . . . but.
    https://theconversation.com/aspiring-treasurer-chris-bowen-looks-fit-for-purpose-59187
    Ross Gittins – The government has taken brave steps to clean up a mess it created years ago but in terms of fairness it falls short.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/super-makeover-still-leaves-many-in-the-cold-20160509-goqen3.html
    Ben Eltham says the ghost of Joe Hockey rises to continue the attack on our public health system.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/05/10/the-ghost-of-joe-hockey-attacks-on-public-health-continue/
    Townsville demonstrates the other side of housing affordability.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/what-housing-bubble-no-votes-in-cheaper-housing-in-townsville-20160510-goqwf9.html
    “View from the Street” gives Kelly O’Bigmouth a good serve. The white anting within the Liberal Party gets a mention too. The wacky world of Dennis Jensen is also on show.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-assistant-treasurer-declares-let-them-eat-toast-20160510-goqwmn.html
    The IPA about to eat its own as it attacks the Coalition’s superannuation policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/conservative-bedfellows-divided-over-superannuation-changes-20160510-gortf6.html
    In praise of Bill Shorten – five reasons he’s winning.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/in-praise-of-bill-shorten,8970
    Michael Gordon on boats – the debate we will not have in this election campaign.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/2016-election-the-boats-debate-we-will-not-have-in-this-campaign-20160510-gort2i.html

  12. Section 2 . . .

    Andrew Elder has his say on the transitioning economy.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/not-rocket-science,8969
    Will Cliff Richard join Rolf Harris in stir?
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/sir-cliff-richard-abuse-claims-handed-to-prosecutors-20160510-gos1j6.html
    Trump makes an exception for London’s new Muslim Mayor.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/donald-trump-sadiq-khan-exception-to-muslim-ban_uk_57317762e4b0e6da49a6b9a8
    A former Rudd adviser on how Shorten plans to beat Turnbull.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/05/10/bill-shortens-campaign/
    18 things first time voters should know.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/18-things-every-firsttime-voter-should-know-20160509-goqcsb.html
    Dutton has until Sunday to sort this mess out.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-has-until-sunday-to-arrange-refugees-abortion-20160510-goqrhh.html
    Fun and games at the Sydney Harbour Authority.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/bribery-scandal-hits-sydney-harbour-authority-20160510-goqsnw.html
    And look at this for an opulent office block!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/panama-papers-mossack-fonsecas-noble-park-hot-spot-20160510-goqvet.html
    Read this a and weep for your descendants.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/global-warming-milestone-about-to-be-passed-and-theres-no-going-back-20160509-goqcm0.html
    The Panama papers list opens up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australias-top-companies-richlisters-revealed-in-panama-papers-20160510-goql2l.html

  13. Morning all.

    Yes lizzie I too found the hung parliament engaging and we certainly saw a lot more reportage of the processes and workings of parliament, esp the house during that period.

  14. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    It seems that many prominent Australian properties are owned by companies based in overseas tax havens. Worth digging into?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/wealthy-hold-property-in-offshore-tax-havens-20160502-gojz5d.html
    What Waleed Aly and John Oliver have in common.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/what-waleed-aly-and-john-oliver-have-in-common-20160509-goqcn9.html
    A doctor uses first hand experience to show that shift work is bad for you.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/shift-work-is-bad-for-sleep-trust-me-im-a-doctor-20160510-goqkvw.html
    Ron Tandberg breakfasts on Kelly O’Bigmouth’s gaffe.

    David Pope on Shorten’s unwanted new “friend”.

    Cathy Wilcox with a reminder.

    Mark Knight with Kroger’s mischief.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/83f87edeac3952faea0c47eb769f23dd?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    David Rowe and THAT toaster.

  15. hugoaugogo @ #9 Wednesday, May 11, 2016 at 7:33 am

    I think BludgerTrack is about right (as it usually is) at the moment, with the government slight favourites to be returned, were the election being held this week. They have had a decent first few days, and nothing has really gone that wrong for them so far. Labor has also done OK, but they have had to play a big if defence in the last day or two, and that is then two days where the conversation is not about issues of their choosing.
    Of course, there is an awfully long way to go before polling day, and a lot can happen to either side in that time. If the Libs can keep themselves relatively together for the next two months, then I think they will end up winning. I suspect your average swinging voter is inclined to give Talcum another go, so it will take a few stuff-ups (like what we’ve seen for the last few months) for Labor to get there – it’s a big hill for Shorten and co to climb, and pretty much everything will need to go right for them between now and July.
    Most of the sound and fury in these early days probably won’t matter in the end, though, as I suspect those voters that matter won’t really switch on until after the June long weekend, so we’ve probably got another month or so of phony war for now.

    The Essential, as reported in yesterday’s Crikey email, stated the budget appeared to do what it was supposed to do for the govt: arrest the decline. Whether that is a temporary or sustainable arrest however, will be determined over the coming weeks.

  17. Bill might be using hand-written notes, but at least they are not likely to be written on the back of an envelope or a serviette!

  18. lizzie @ #5 Wednesday, May 11, 2016 at 7:15 am

    I don’t remember the”hung parliament” years as horror years. I found them exciting, but the Coalition and the media , with Turnbull out in front, are using “Horror!” to try to scare everyone to vote for them.
    Bill used ‘paper notes’? What greater crime could there be?

    I have to agree. Those were the most exciting times in politics for me. I guess I started closely scrutinising Australian politics more because of that.

  19. Good to see Tingle, Grattan, todays SMH editorial and Leigh Sales last night are acknowledging the ALP is putting forward credible economic policies.

  20. Concur that the hung parliament was exciting. Although the shrillness of the Abbott opposition and the msm made it exhausting and frustrating.

  21. On previous thread matt31 mentioned that in SA there was outcry re election posters and that the Liberals were not complying with the rules.
    Does anyone know more about this matter?

  27. Just watching the coverage on the superannuation issue on News 24. The wealthy are absolutely ferocious in defending their privileges, ‘white hot’ if they have to pay a cent in tax on savings on which they have already been substantially sheltered from tax. Never mind the 65 year old working in Bunnings who has his tax deducted from his pay before he sees it, he’s not ‘entitled’ like these rich guys. The ‘Age of Entitlement’ is still on for them and they are determined that it stay that way.

    They and their financial advisers must know that this ‘retrospective’ argument is crap, but what’s a bit of lying? Next they’ll argue that the economy will collapse if they have to pay tax.

  28. Good Morning

    Confessions and Victoria

    This was my point yesterday that Labor should defend its record from the hung parliament.

    One of the killer lines Bandt uses that Labor can also use is the we listened to Tony Abbott tell us how bad the hung parliament was and then we got Tony Abbott.

    Even the journos at the presser laughed.

  29. Vic

    Pyne’s signs went up early. That’s against the Local Govt regulations in SA.

    Sen ‘X’ used them for a stunt.

    So much ado about not much.

  30. Apparently front page of Oz has article on Duncan from qanda. Picture of him and his two girls.

    Headline

    ABC ‘budget fairness’ victim pays no net tax

  34. Victoria

    Bashing Duncan Storrer will lose the Oz some more readers. At some point even Newscorpse will have to cut the newspapers loose the shareholder revolt was only just put down in New York at the last meeting.

  37. So what if Duncan Storrer pays no net tax!?! Isn’t that the sign of a Progressive Tax System and an egalitarian Australia?

  40. IMO the blame lies on Abbott and the Murdoch-owned media itself, not the government or the hung parliament.

    Mine too. I’ve said before countless times that the Abbott years have a lot to answer for in terms of our public discourse. And of course he was ably aided and abetted by the News ltd attack dogs.

  41. victoria

    I hope a lot of public servants will stop reading it especially in Canberra. When back in government Labor can help by making sure no advertising goes to that paper. Lots of online alternatives now with online sites for advertising and Crikey has reach enough that adverts could support a free article or two extra for public servants.

    That would destroy the premium tabloid that is what the Oz has become.

  42. Guess who Morrison blames for the super changes criticism, Labor, it is all labor’s fault for ‘drumming up a campaign ‘.

    After Bowen’s address yesterday I wonder if News Corp is going to propose a treasurer’s debate.

  43. Apparently Ch9 have thrown down for Albo too, with that Stevanovich host holding up the DT front page. Mumble’s assessment:

    Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 5m5 minutes ago
    Peter Brent Retweeted Rashida Yosufzai
    Yuck. Much more of this and you’d have to put your money on the Greens in Grayndler.

  45. C@Tmomma

    So if you’re rich and pay no tax, you’re simply being agile, but if you’re so poor you pay no tax, you’re feeding off your betters. KellyO’B has got it all worked out to her own satisfaction. To think she’s Assistant Treasurer. 🙁

  46. The DT on the Greens-Liberal preference swap deal in NSW (via paywall):

    FORMER Deputy PM Anthony Albanese is in a political life-or-death struggle to retain his Labor seat of Grayndler from the Greens, in one of the electorate battles Opposition insiders believe could cost Bill Shorten his shot at the Prime Ministership.

    Senior ALP insiders say that the fight to retain the inner-city seats of Grayndler and, to a lesser extent, Sydney, for frontbenchers Mr Albanese and Deputy Leader Tanya Plibersek is taking resources away from marginal seats Labor needs to win from the Coalition, potentially ending its chances of election victory.

    Mr Albanese has heard from Liberal sources that the Libs are set to recommend preferencing the Greens in his seat, in exchange for “open tickets” where the Greens do not recommend preferencing Labor in other key marginals.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-2016-anthony-albaneses-battle-for-grayndler-could-cost-shortens-shot-at-pm/news-story/1c3675426c75c66d4539b3cbec8cf328

  47. Josephine Tovey’s article in BK’s links on Waleed Aly/John Oliver is well worth a read. I especially liked this point:

    A major criticism of mainstream media in recent years is that an obsession with balance and remaining politically “neutral” has sucked the intelligence and verve out of much journalism – leaving stories or broadcasts a bland collection of facts and quotes that ping pong between the opposite “sides” of an issue. Journalism academic Jay Rosen calls this the “view from nowhere” approach, “a bid for trust that advertises the viewlessness of the news producer” and that “places the journalist between polarised extremes and calls that neither-nor position ‘impartial’.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/what-waleed-aly-and-john-oliver-have-in-common-20160509-goqcn9.html#ixzz48INU1qLb

  48. Bill used ‘paper notes’? What greater crime could there be?

    The luverly Malcolm and ScuperScoMo dont have to! That’s because they are so smart, good and wise…………..and have nothing to say that they need to note down . Slogans are easy and bullshit waffle just flows anyway.

  49. political_alert: Shadow Treasurer @Bowenchris is in Sydney and will hold a doorstop to comment on Gonski and business tax cuts at 9:30am #auspol #ausvotes

  50. ‘Real’ discussions are not allowed in pollie walks. Leonore:

    Journalists – apart from the few questions allowed by each leader at their daily doorstop – are really becoming for the most part just added extras in an elaborate pantomime, unless there is a “gaffe”. And of course the absolute need to avoid such “gaffes” gives the campaign organisers on both sides even more incentive to make sure no actual debate, no real discussion, intrudes on the whole contrived circus.

    Which raises the question as to whether the Truman Show nature of election campaigns has finally outlived its useful purpose?

    Over the years voters have gradually been privy to more of the process by which prime ministerial contenders interact with “ordinary people” who just happen to hold opinions, and be encountered in situations, that fit the politicians’ desired message. Like the viewers in the movie The Truman Show, voters always knew it wasn’t entirely real

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/11/liberals-extra-from-central-casting-gives-glimpse-into-reality-of-turnbull-show?CMP=share_btn_tw

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