Day two: Essential, Lonergan, BludgerTrack and more

Individual polls continue to record a statistical dead heat on two-party preferred, but the BludgerTrack poll aggregate detects a subtle shift in favour of the Coalition since the release of the budget.

First up, the latest dispatches from the front:

• The preference deal with the Greens being pursued by the Victorian Liberals at the behest of the party’s state president, Michael Kroger, is meeting resistance from other branches of the party. Rick Wallace of The Australian today cites unidentified Liberal sources expressing displeasure at the idea, and gets Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz to reiterate that the “very strong view” of his own state division was that the Greens should be put last. The party’s federal director, Tony Nutt, issued a statement yesterday stressing that no decision had been made.

• Labor hit a spot of bother today in the Townsville electorate of Herbert, which it has never quite been able to pick off since it fell to the Liberals in the 1996 landslide. Bill Shorten’s Queensland road trip brought him to the electorate today, but a doorstop he conducted together with the Labor candidate, Cathy O’Toole, was dominated by O’Toole’s involving in a protest at Liberal member Ewen Jones’s electorate office in February pleading for “a more humane policy for refugees”.

• Apropos Dennis Jensen’s announcement he will run as an independent in Tangney, the Australian Parliamentary Library reviews “the electoral fortunes of MPs who left major parties and contested the next election as Independents”, going back to 1949. Out of 17 identified examples, 12 failed to win their seats (several of whom left office under a cloud); three won re-election but were then defeated at the next election subsequently; and another won re-election and then retired at the election subsequently. Only Bob Katter went on to lasting electoral success.

Now to polling. BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest Essential Research, along with state data from Ipsos, Essential and ReachTEL. The Coalition is now credited with a lead of 50.5-49.5, which is full point better than the pre-budget reading from last week. That translates into a net gain of three since last week on the seat projection, with two gains in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and the Northern Territory balanced by a loss in Queensland. At some point in the not distant future, I’ll start including state-level primary vote breakdowns and two-party results from respondent-allocated trends as well as previous election preferences, but for the time being the display looks like so:

bludgertrack-2016-05-11

Two new polls were released yesterday, and I have a bit left to say about one from the day before:

• Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average has the Labor lead down from 52-48 to 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens steady on 10%. The poll also records 20% approval and 29% disapproval of the budget, with 35% opting for neither and 15% for don’t know. Twenty-one per cent felt the budget had made them more confident in the government, compared with 32% for less confident and 35% for makes no difference. However, most of the specific measures were well supported; 69% for internships for the young unemployed versus 14% opposed; 72% for the higher tax on cigarettes, versus 21% against; 62% for capping super tax concessions, versus 21% against; and 50% in favour of company tax cuts, versus 34% against. Opinion was evenly divided on the tax cut for those on more than $80,000, at 43% for and 44% against, and there was a predictable result for “cuts of $1.2 billion to aged care providers”. A bonus survey question provided exclusively to SBS recorded a view that the budget would make it harder for young people looking to buy their first home and gain a higher education, migrant families seeking education jobs, and people saving for their retirement – but there was a relatively good result for “young people trying to find a job”, presumably reflecting the internships scheme. The poll also recorded 48% opposition to bringing asylum seekers from Manus Island to Australia with 30% in support, and 39% holding the view that conditions in detention centres were poor, versus 32% for good.

• The Guardian Australia yesterday published a poll by Lonergan Research showing 50-50 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%. It also found only 12% felt they would be better off because of the budget compared with 38% for worse off, and that 29% said it made them more likely to vote for the Coalition compared with 47% for less likely. The poll was automated phone survey of 1841 respondents conducted Friday to Sunday.

• I hadn’t mentioned the budget response results from Newspoll, which are worth a closer look. Among other things, there are breakdowns by income cohort, which you don’t often see in published polling. Those on higher incomes ($100,000 and lower) were more disposed to have an overall favourable view than those on lower incomes ($50,000 or less), but not by a great order of magnitude: 39% good and 22% in the former case, 31% good and 22% bad in the latter. However, bigger disparities were recorded on personal impact, with 11% of low-income earners expecting to be better off and 45% expecting to be worse off, compared with 29% and 27% for higher income earners. There are also interesting differences by age, with the most favourable responses coming from the young and the least favourable from the middle-aged, with the older cohort landing in between. Charts below put all this into the context of the regular post-budget Newspoll questions going back to 1988 (although there’s a slight change this year and that there are no longer neutral as distinct from uncommitted response options), and show the historic relationship between the “own financial position” and “economic impact” questions, with this year’s question identified in red. On pretty much every measure, this was an average response to a budget, although the plus 5% net rating for economic impact compares slightly unfavourably with an average of plus 10.9%. Its also a weaker than usual result for a Coalition budget, which have had historically better results (part of which is to do with the Howard government holding the reins in the pre-GFC boom years).

2016-05-10-budgetresponse

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,527 comments on “Day two: Essential, Lonergan, BludgerTrack and more”

Comments Page 29 of 31
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  3. 2600 7/11 workers may have had part of their wages stolen by 7/11.
    Can someone remind me what Turnbull’s connection was with 7/11?
    Is it headquartered in the Virgins? Does it mine gold in Siberia?
    Does it make fabulous donations to Russian politicians with Cypress bank accounts?
    Turnbull has some questions to answer here as well, IMO.

  5. davidwh @ #1388 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 7:53 pm

    Re the election, in the absence of anything really big, I think it’s too early to be scoring the campaign. I doubt too many people are engaged over seven weeks out.

    It’s all about establishing vibes. If the vibes continue to be replicated during the campaign it matters; if not, it’s irrelevant. The first big thing will be tomorrow night when Turnbull and Shorten go head to head at Windsor. I think it will be the start of a big re-evaluation by the uncommitted voters of both Turnbull and Shorten as leaders and potential Prime Ministers.

  7. It is a bit of a pity but Baird is damaging his Mr Squeaky Clean reputation with the amalgamations. The ones that may not be going ahead are in Liberal/National marginal federal seats.
    Not a good look.

  8. davidwh @ #1388 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 7:53 pm

    Re the election, in the absence of anything really big, I think it’s too early to be scoring the campaign. I doubt too many people are engaged over seven weeks out.

    The Cayman Island ‘undercoat’ would have helped immensely when it came to painting Truffles with the Panama shit. It’s all about painting the undercoat at the mo.

  9. Bw

    The ones that may not be going ahead are in Liberal/National marginal federal seats.

    They’ve given up on Eden- Monaro then.

  10. Boerwar:

    Ch7 news in WA showed Turnbull doing blokesville today: harangued by a single mother, then off to an exclusive, wealthy men only club, then to some other photo op where he was once again surrounded by men only. And then Abbott showed up for good measure, obviously sensing the theme of Turnbull’s day.

    The Brown issue showed only Brown , explaining about his record, then showed Shorten with his wife and surrounded by more women.

    I think Bluey needs to re-assess. Turnbull doing blokesville is all about the Lib base, not swinging voters.

  11. Confessions at least you’ll have likely have a Labor Government soon-ish. Here in NSW we’re stuck with Baird for at least another three years – and likely more.

  12. douglas and milko @ #1346 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 7:14 pm

    Hi All,
    I give the link here for an Amnesty International petition requesting Widoko not to proceed with the executions: http://www.amnesty.org.au/action/action/41770/?utm_source=CIC&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CIC737_20160512_indDP&utm_content=button1

    Call it kismet, but tomorrow I am meeting with a work colleague of mine to discuss some internet teaching stuff. When I meet with him, I always remember how much I admire his father. My colleague is the son of Rupert (Dick) Hamer, who was Premier of Victoria, after the ghastly Henry Bolte. Rupert Hamer abolished the death penalty in Victoria after succeeding Bolte as Liberal leader in Victoria. The last person to be hung in Australia was Ronald Ryan in 1967, under Bolte. As usual with Capital Punishment, it was a sad story all round. People still talk of Hamer Liberals, and these people have my utmost respect.
    So, now seems like a really good time to me to remember what a travesty of human rights the death penalty is, and to work hard for its abolition.

    I will sign the Amnesty petition when it turns up in my inbox if it hasn’t already.

    Regarding Hamer, he was Acting Premier when the State Govt gave the green light for their fascist goons, AKA Victoria Police, to engage in a mass riot at Olympic Park and beat up hundreds of people engaged in peaceful protest against the Springboks.

    Beneath that urbane and cultured exterior beat a typical Liberal heart.
    Bolte simply didn’t hide his.

    I have nothing but contempt for Hamer.

  15. zoidlord @ #1406 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 8:09 pm

    Media tries to turn the tied to boats the other day, hopefully labor didnt reply…

    Unauthorised arrivals are a very big issue. But it is not existential. The overly hysterical attempts to link any expression of empathy, let alone sympathy, with the detainees on Nauru and Manus with reopening the floodgates is going to start wearing thin. As will the faux outrage of sub-humans like Dutton at every comparison with Nazis, compared with their absolute lack of any sign of compassion with the detainees themselves.

    People are worried that the boats will start again. But a lot more than the politicians think are not comfortable with an open season of brutality against the current detainees as the price of keeping those boats stopped.

  16. CONFESSIONS – Does it get worse than a PM talking down to a single mother desperately trying to create a good life for her kids. Really put a human face on the liberal’s policies. Malcolm had a shocker.

  17. JD:

    The state desperately needs a change of govt. The Libs are out of ideas, looking decidedly shop-worn and have no real answers for anything.

  22. Bemused at 8.17

    I’ve already signed it. It seems to me that pretty much every execution these days, whether in Indonesia or the USA or Singapore, is driven by political populism and not by any sense of real justice being done, let alone criminological benefit.

  23. rank in order who would u prefer to run a campaign
    1) rudd 2) Gillard 3 ) shorten
    answer: they are already ranked …
    of course shorten running and will win but i always remember rudd neutralising the christian lobby …

  24. K17:

    It looked very patronising. His ‘education is the key’ spiel failed to actually address her point that yes, she actually lives this for her kid, but thanks to Turnbull and his govt, can’t realise it due to costs.

    Ch7 then made the point of saying wtte that Turnbull’s next stop was far removed from the world of single mothers, that being the wealthy, exclusive men-only club. A serious campaign fail.

  26. I was at Olympic Park on the day.
    It was not peaceful at all. Protestors were throwing marbles under the hooves of police horses. They chucked hard stuff at the coppers and the horses. They tore down the cyclone fence that was the boundary of the Park. They ran onto the ground, disrupting the game.
    Was I a protestor? Yes.
    Was the copper response out of all proportion? Yes.
    Was I very, very lucky on the day? Yes.
    Some protestors were chucking stuff at the coppers then crawling around the legs of the crowd of protestors, moving to a new spot before popping up and throwing something else at the coppers.
    The coppers had flying wedges where 15 or so coppers would form a solid human phalanx, generally with someone like a League prop forward at the tip.
    At a signal the Wedge would charge into the crowd with a view to catching one of the thrower/crawlers.
    The thing was that we were on a slope and behind the slope there was a steep drop. The Flying Wedges would almost invariably result in dozens of protestor being shoved over the edge and down the drop.
    We were pretty solidly massed so that we could hardly move.
    I recall after one particular charge looking to my right and there was an open space. A wedge had simply pushed a whole section of the crowd over the edge.
    Had the Wedge been one person to its right, I would have been over the edge with my comrades.

  27. Airlines – I dunno. Baird’s pretend moderate persona has allowed him to do some pretty destructive things in NSW.

  28. Geoffrey
    I asked Bluey about this and he reckons that the DT is not even worth using in the toilet.
    Bluey reckons that Shorten is doing the main thing ATM which is presenting himself as a credible alternative and Labor has a huge amount more in its shot locker than the Liberals.
    As Mr Keating might have said, Shorten can afford to do Turnbull slowly.

  31. boerwar i agree have even cancelled greens membership (well not renewed at least)
    time for labor landslide and a reform period altho that’s not end of rainbow

  33. There was one excellent thing about the protests. They helped kill of further BOK tours and played their small part in the eventual end of Apartheid.

  36. Confessions
    The state desperately needs a change of govt. The Libs are out of ideas, looking decidedly shop-worn and have no real answers for anything.

    That isn’t unique to WA though. It’s endemic amongst Liberals across the country.

  37. beware the smiling trogan face of turnbull — the DT gave him 10 all smiles today one gawky one of bill … some votes (many) vote on appearances and BT still have charms – debates will be interesting ..

    also is there any truth in rumour about SMH mid week editions???

  38. JD:

    Except we have the longest-serving Liberal govt of all the current Lib govts across the country.

    They are well passed their use-by date, and we are well overdue for change.

  44. confessions @ #1410 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 8:17 pm

    Boerwar:
    Ch7 news in WA showed Turnbull doing blokesville today: harangued by a single mother, then off to an exclusive, wealthy men only club, then to some other photo op where he was once again surrounded by men only. And then Abbott showed up for good measure, obviously sensing the theme of Turnbull’s day.
    The Brown issue showed only Brown , explaining about his record, then showed Shorten with his wife and surrounded by more women.
    I think Bluey needs to re-assess. Turnbull doing blokesville is all about the Lib base, not swinging voters.

    He’s trying to project “strong leader”…really, projects how far from reality he actually is.

  46. confessions @ #1438 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 8:40 pm

    JD:
    Except we have the longest-serving Liberal govt of all the current Lib govts across the country.
    They are well passed their use-by date, and we are well overdue for change.

    It’s been many years since the voters of WA have had a chance to vote for a government that is even slightly interested in them. They have such an opportunity on July 2. They will not pass it up.

  48. GASP ! His Eminence Paul Kelly on Sky declared “Player of the Week” was Bowen. Other panelists PvO and pencil neck Hartcher picked Di Natale. Not a Lib nominated at all at all.

  50. P
    Bowen was on Sunday Agenda with PvO and Kelly last Sunday morning. Try as they might they could not gotcha him. Bowen danced like a butterfuly and stung like a bee. I wonder how very much better RGR might have gone had Bowen been Treasurer rather than Swan.

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