Noteworthy developments since my last federal election post 24 hours ago:
• Ahead of the High Court’s ruling on Senator Bob Day’s challenge to the constitutionality of Senate electoral reform, to be delivered at 10am today, Jeremy Gans at the University of Melbourne portends its rejection. Gans notes the court has failed to issue orders in advance of written reasons, as it likely would have done if its ruling was anything the Australian Electoral Commission needed to know about.
• Another, less publicised election-related High Court challenge met an unsuccessful conclusion last night, with the rejection of a bid to keep the electoral roll open beyond its scheduled close of 8pm on Monday. The challenge sought to build on the High Court’s ruling during the 2010 campaign which invalidated Howard-era amendments that closed the roll to new enrolments on the evening the writs were issued, and to updating of addresses three days subsequently.
• A report by Rick Wallace of The Australian talks up Labor’s prospects in the Liberal-held outer Melbourne seat of Dunkley. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of Liberal member Bruce Billson, who narrowly retained it through the Rudd-Gillard years and bequeaths a 5.6% margin to the new Liberal candidate, Chris Crewther. According to Labor sources cited in the report, “one recent sample of a tracking poll in the southeast Melbourne seat had the ALP in front 52-48 per cent after preferences” – though based on what I know of tracking polling, the sample in question would have been about 200. Nonetheless, the Prime Minister is taking the seat seriously enough that he campaigned there yesterday. Notwithstanding Labor’s apparently strong show in this seat, the report also relates that concerns remain about the Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce, where Labor is losing sitting members with the retirements of Anna Burke and Alan Griffin.
• The Australian’s report also says the Nationals are “increasingly optimistic” that their candidate for the seat of Murray, state upper house MP Damian Drum, will win the rural seat of Murray, which is being vacated with the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone. However, Labor is said to be dangling a carrot before the Liberals by offering to direct preferences to their candidate ahead of Drum, in exchange for the Liberals dropping their plans to preference the Greens ahead of Labor in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills.
• Labor has a new candidate for Fremantle following the disendorsement of Maritime Union of Australia organiser Chris Brown, who failed to disclose past convictions on his candidate nomination form. The national executive convened yesterday to replace him with Josh Wilson, deputy mayor of Fremantle and a staffer for the seat’s outgoing member, Melissa Parke. Brown won the initial preselection through the support of the Left unions on the party’s state executive, despite Wilson defeating him by a 155-110 margin in the ballot of the local membership. On Tuesday it emerged that Brown had spent convictions dating from his late teenage years for assaulting a police officer and driving under the influence. Brown claims to have raised the matter with party officials in April, only to be told spent convictions did not have to be disclosed (although the question on the nomination form is whether the prospective candidate has “ever been found guilty of any offence”). He also claimed his contact with the police officer arose accidentally while he was defending himself from an unprovoked attack by three assailants, and said the court had recognised mitigating circumstances when it gave him a good behaviour bond. I had a lot more to say about this in a paywalled article in Crikey today. One of the issues dealt with was the notion that Labor’s troubles might cause the seat to fall to the Greens, despite their modest 11.9% share of the vote in 2013. While the Greens were sufficiently strong in the immediate vicinity of Fremantle to win the state seat at a by-election in 2009, support for the party is a good deal lower on those parts of the federal electorate not covered by the state seat. This is indicated by the map below, which shows federal boundaries in red and state boundaries in blue, with numbers indicating polling booth locations and the Greens primary vote.
• Labor’s national executive has signed off on its Senate preselections today, capping a process that has produced two particularly contentious outcomes: the return of Don Farrell in second position in South Australia, and the sixth placing given to incumbent Lisa Singh in Tasmania. In turn:
New South Wales: 1. Sam Dastyari (Right), factional powerbroker and former general secretary of the state party branch, who filled the casual vacancy created when his predecessor as general secretary, Matt Thistlethwaite, moved to the lower house seat of Kingsford Smith at the 2013 election; 2. Jenny McAllister (Left), former party national president and technical director of a civil engineering firm, who came to the Senate in May last year in place of John Faulkner; 3. Deborah O’Neill (Right), member for the Central Coast seat of Robertson from 2010 until her defeat in 2013, who filled Bob Carr’s Senate vacancy in November 2013; 4. Doug Cameron (Left), former Australian Manufacturing Workers Union national secretary who was elected from number two in 2007 and 2013; 5. Tara Moriarty (Right), state secretary of United Voice.
Victoria: 1. Kim Carr (Left), leading figure in the Victorian Left, elected from number two in 1993 and 1998, and number one in 2004 and 2010; 2. Stephen Conroy (Right), an ally of Bill Shorten’s in the dominant sub-faction of the Victorian Right, who filled a casual vacancy in 1996, held top position in 1998, then second position in 2004 and 2010; 3. Jacinta Collins (Right), a former official with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association who entered the Senate in 1995, lost her seat from the number three position at the 2004 election after the party’s preference deal with Family First backfired (ironically, given her renown as a social conservative), won it back from top position in 2007, and held second position in 2013; 4. Gavin Marshall (Left), former Electrical Trades Union official who entered the Senate in 2002, and had top position in 2013; 5. Jennifer Yang (unaligned), scientist and former mayor of Manningham who unsuccessfully sought preselection for the lower house seat of Chisholm, and ran for the state seat of Mount Waverley in 2014; 6. Louise Persse (Left, I assume), former national secretary of the Community and Public Sector Union.
Queensland: 1. Murray Watt (Left), Maurice Blackburn lawyer and state member for Everton from 2009 until his defeat in the cleanout of 2012, who last year defeated incumbent Jan McLucas to win the Left’s endorsement for top position on the half-Senate ticket; 2. Anthony Chisholm (Right), former party state secretary who last year won Right endorsement to succeed Joe Ludwig after he announced he would not seek another term; 3. Claire Moore (Left), who was first elected in 2001 and held second position on the ticket in 2001, 2007 and 2013; 4. Chris Ketter (Right), former state secretary of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, who was first elected from top of the ticket in 2013; 5. Jane Casey, who I can’t tell you much about, except that she’s fron Mackay.
Western Australia: 1. Sue Lines (Left), former assistant national secretary of United Voice, who filled Chris Evans’ Senate vacancy in May 2013; 2. Glenn Sterle (Right), former Transport Workers Union organiser, elected from number two in 2004 and 2010; 3. Pat Dodson (unaligned), indigenous leader and former Roman Catholic priest, anointed by Bill Shorten to fill Joe Bullock’s Senate vacancy in March, which he eventually filled a fortnight ago; 4. Louise Pratt (Left), state upper house member from 2001 and 2007, elected to the Senate from top of the ticket in 2007, then relegated to what proved to be the losing proposition of number two in 2013; 5. Mark Reed (Left), director of campaigns and communications at United Voice.
South Australia: 1. Penny Wong (Left), the Leader of the Opposition in the Senate, first elected from top of the ticket in 2001, relegated to number two in 2007, and promoted to number one only after a backlash against Don Farrell’s initial preselection win in 2013; 2. Don Farrell (Right), former state secretary and national president of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union, elected to the Senate from number one in 2007, then voluntarily bumped to number two in 2013 (see above), from which he was unexpectedly defeated; 3. Alex Gallacher (Right), former state secretary of the Transport Workers Union, elected from top of the ticket in 2010; 4. Anne McEwen (Left), former state secretary of the Australian Services Union, elected from number on 2004, re-elected from number two in 2010, and now shunted to number four to accommodate Farrell; 5. Michael Allison (not known), network controller for SA Power Networks and delegate for the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union.
Tasmania: 1. Anne Urquhart (Left), former state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, first elected from number two in 2010; 2. Helen Polley (Right), former staffer to Premiers Jim Bacon and Paul Lennon, first elected from number two in 2004, re-elected from number two in 2010; 3. Carol Brown (Left), who filled a casual vacancy in August 2005, was elected from number two in 2007, and re-elected from number one in 2013; 4. Catryna Bilyk (Right), a former state political staffer, elected from number three in 2007 and number two in 2013; 5. John Short (Left), state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union; 6. Lisa Singh (Left), elected to the state lower house in Denison at the 2006 election, defeated in 2010, and elected to the Senate from third position in 2013, then contentiously dumped to fourth position at the half-Senate preselection in June last year.
Australian Capital Territory: 1. Katy Gallagher (Left), the territory’s Chief Minister from 2011 until her resignation in 2014, when she resigned pending her transfer to Senate in March 2015 on the retirement of Kate Lundy.
Northern Territory: 1. Nova Peris, former Olympic hockey player and sprinter, who was installed as candidate at the 2013 on the insistence of then Prime Minister Julia Gillard at the expense of the incumbent, Trish Crossin.
Steve777 @ 9.32 They could at least slip him the four bucks an hour
millennial @ #750 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 9:36 pm
Abbott and Credlin are running their old gig….doing Opposition to the Government. Perhaps, when Labor win, they can offer Abbott the post of High Commissioner to Nauru.
Nice work Millennial
Thanks Briefly!
Millennial @750: good one.
Thanks Poroti! I’m door-knocking in a town in the seat of Paterson that swings between the two parties. I’m hoping for a good response.
Briefly @ 9.39
Peta could go as attache and double as the local midwife. On $3.50/hr
Coorey —
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election-2016-turnbull-backpedals-on-health-cuts-but-shorten-wins-debate-20160513-gouxle#ixzz48XEwxCY2
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jimmydoyle @ #755 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 9:40 pm
Ditto! But can you explain why would-be home owners also pay more tax than they otherwise would?
jimmydoyle @ #757 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 9:42 pm
Good luck Jimmy. I luv the voters…so interesting to her their stories/views…
gecko @ #760 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 9:46 pm
Because the -ve gearing and capital gains concessions are big hit on the budget. There is an implied transfer from the non-geared to the revenue that covers the transfers to the geared.
Mr Abbott said it was “lovely to be back here at Mick’s farm to remind people of the strong record that the government has, the Abbott-Turnbull government has, when it comes to this area”.
Does Abbott the Delusionist believe he is the Co-Prime Minister!?!
Chatted today to a tax lawyer today about Malcolm Turnbull. He said that he had only met Turnbull for four hours, when they were both involved in a transaction, and Malcolm spent all four hours screaming his head off at everyone and swearing like a Sergeant Major. Said he’d never seen such anger in his life. That was his only experience of our PM.
Jimmy Doyle,
Beware the dreaded lurgey that may come out to greet you along with the elector! Take some vitamins before you go out! 😀
I hate to be fattist, but I reckon you could fit about 4 Abbott’s into George Christiansen’s trousers. The man is beyond huge. And he’s only 37.
K17
If there is any footage of that incident, or other similar incidents, Turnbull is a goner.
briefly @ #762 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 9:48 pm
Thanks Briefly:-)
JD,
We are wall to wall door-knocking down the road in Robertson atm. Lucky the weather has been OK.
You are very fortunate to be shot of Bob Baldwin at last and that the redistribution has favoured Labor in Paterson.
Briefly – thanks. I’ll be very interested to hear what the most important issues to the voters are.
C@Tmomma – I’ll make sure to stock up!
kevin-one-seven @ #764 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 9:49 pm
…………………………………………………………………
Maybe the turnbull the tories see, know, hate, despise – yet saw (past tense) yet believed might save their sorry arse’s?
In any case – they all deserve to go down with each other – chucked out. booted etc.
Voters – get ya act together….
d-money @ #758 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 9:42 pm
lol
She could manage the gym too.
C@Tmomma – what has the sentiment amongst voters in Robertson been like?
A few of the ‘undecided’ votes tonight might not have been. There was still a crowd of attendees talking to Shorten when the figure was given … might have been higher if those who wanted to chat to him is any indication
c@tmomma @ #769 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 9:56 pm
What is your feeling, C@t, after sounding the voters?
Did Turnbull make any hairdressers cry?
kevin-one-seven and Dave,
An old friend of mine I bumped into recently worked for Mal T at Goldman Sachs and despite being a long term conservative typical of the banking sector, and linked to the Liberal party, was bemoaning the horrible lack of a suitable leader. He was very clear Turnbull does not fit the description, recalling him as a ranting screaming thumper of tables whenever things weren’t going precisely his way.
> Daily Telecrap declares Shorten the winner of tonight’s debate:
So that’s it. We live in opposite world now.
jenauthor @ #775 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 10:02 pm
I’ve been in such a venue with Shorten more than once. People are very keen to talk to him and to gain his views on things. He delivers warmth and directness. He does this very rare thing…which is to make the listener feel like the event is about them and not about him…and to affirm their own feelings about themselves. It is a kind of leadership that is very unifying…draws people together…it is the precise opposite of elitist form…very nice to experience.
jenauthor @ #775 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 10:02 pm
………………………………………………………….
I am most suspicious about ‘undecided’….ie to even be there it suggests politically oriented (if thats the right word) to some extent.
Mind you I wish more eligible voters had a more connected view about politics.
But most of the questions tonight seen pretty straight forward, IMO
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Young George day by day is looking more and more like Bubbles Devere from Little Britain..
https://vimeo.com/26926279
One thing for sure. Tonight’s debate demonstrated very clearly just how far it is from a Harbourside Mansion to west Sydney and most of the rest of Australia!
There aren’t many McMansions in Windsor. It’s on Sydney’s semi-rural fringe. Some commute to Sydney. Seems to have a few genuine battlers. Not ‘aspirational’ territory like nearby parts of Sydney’s NW.
d-money @ #778 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 10:05 pm
……………………………………………………………………
Probably a lot of truth in that as well.
morrison next if turnbull fails ? or even worse back to abbott?
Mesma? or Porter ?
Who knows/ cares as long as they all rot in hell.
Rod Hagen
Still get a 😆 at Peta Credlin’s calling Truffles ‘Mr Harbourside Mansion”.
Who knows/ cares as long as they all rot in hell.
Couldn’t agree more.
Dave if I believed in hell I’d be right with you on that, for now I’ll settle for the people waking up to what what fully bought up pets of vested interest they are
Rod Hagen
Friday, May 13, 2016 at 10:10 pm
One thing for sure. Tonight’s debate demonstrated very clearly just how far it is from a Harbourside Mansion to west Sydney and most of the rest of Australia!
One wonders how Turnbull returned home tonight. Windsor RSL is only a stone’s throw from Windsor station but I’ll bet he didn’t catch the train. It’s also only a short distance to Richmond RAAF base. A VIP flight to Kingsford Smith sounds the way to go.
d-money
Fair enough.
LaurieOakes
3m3 minutes ago
LaurieOakes @LaurieOakes
Column: Malcolm Turnbull must face issue of his personal wealth http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/laurie-oakes/malcolm-turnbull-must-face-issue-of-his-personal-wealth/news-story/124c21120bfffa81e1cbf78effe71c4c …
dave @ #781 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 10:09 pm
The questions were right out of the Labor handbook on “What Voters Really Care About.” Almost every question and nearly all the answers – including many of those from Turnbot – were code for “Why I would be thinking about voting for Labor.” The themes..education, hospitals, Medicare, bulk billing, the cost of housing, tax equity, the reform of banking, “fairness” in general…are Labor themes. They are a reflection of the continuous hard work of Labor from at least the 1940’s on. There would be almost no-one in the room who would doubt Labor’s credentials on any one of those topics. If the tracking polling shows voters are homing in on these themes (and on ME, the climate and a few others) then all Labor has to do is keep up the messages. The Liberals will want to talk about other things, of course. They will try to do so. But on tonight’s demo, they will not persuade the undecided to go their way. If, say, 14% of voters are now undecided (it could be higher than this) and they break 4:3 to Labor, Labor should secure around 51.5/48.5…enough…not huge, but enough. If the undecided are clustered in the marginals, then the effects will be all the greater.
(Of course, once the Green vote breaks down as a result of their many calumnies and perfidies, Labor may procure a much larger victory, as dtt will doubtless attest…:)
dave @ #785 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 10:16 pm
Let’s hope Porter loses his seat!
The question about when each side would tackle debt was probably responsible for the bulk of undecideds. Labor is doing very well on all things but for mine the biggest issue and the largest pain in the proverbial for the electorate is 5 years of politicians whining about debt & deficit and doing bugger all about it. (Raise taxes/do whatever – just fix the bloody thing) Labor could do a heap of damage if they simply made the commitment now to quarantine some of their savings advantage over the government into reducing the deficit … the 2% levy + would be a good place to start.
Personal wealth is not possible without massive public infrastructure. In turn wealth creation is the only thing that gives us a chance to have enough revenue for all the other stuff, so People like Malcom siphoning their wealth away from the Tax Office are truly scamming the Australian people.
gecko @ #794 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 10:31 pm
Shorten did declare that Labor would do the hard things on the budget but that this entailed being fair. This will resonate….recalling that the LNP are perceived to be unfair and untrusted.
Of course, the PEFO statement is still to come. Labor will have every chance to reveal their fiscal intentions once it is published.
Victoria @10.25
When Laurie Oakes starts thinking the wealth card is legit it must be starting to bite.
Not the most encouraging poll for Labor. There’s seven weeks to go to improve I guess. LNP primary vote 46 to Labor’s 33.
“The LNP is ahead of Labor in Queensland by 54 to 46 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, a Galaxy poll for The Courier-Mail reveals.”
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/federal-election/election-2016-galaxy-poll-reveals-turnbull-government-would-hold-on/news-story/8025b47ee03b13aed17a237bafa78c53
what will have more effect, real estate agents campaign against negative gearing or ama against medicare freeze and hospital cuts …. o those publically interest estate agents – first propaganda and im complaining to firm and head office how they lost business etc
I don’t know how the deterioration of the Greens vote will help a Labor 2PP (I doubt it’ll hinder it much if at all either, it’ll roughly stay the same)