ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling

A poll of Tasmania’s electorates finds the Liberals grimly hanging on in the three seats gained from Labor in 2013, and independent Andrew Wilkie going untroubled in Denison.

Today’s Sunday Tasmanian has results from ReachTEL polling of each of the five lower house seats in Tasmania, from a combined sample of 3019. The report says the poll credits the Liberals with 51-49 leads in Bass and Lyons, independent Andrew Wilkie with an increased majority in Denison, Labor member Julie Collins with a lead of 54-46 in Franklin, and Liberal member Brett Whiteley with a primary vote lead of 42.7% to 32.6% in Braddon, suggesting little change on his 2.6% winning two-party margin in 2013. The Jacqui Lambie Network would find “solid support” in the northern electorates, particularly her home base of Braddon, but has just 2.7% support in Denison and 2.5% in Franklin (this being before exclusion of around 7.5% undecided). I will be able to go into greater depth on these results tomorrow, but will be beaten to it by Kevin Bonham, who promises to publish a comprehensive overview at 8.30am.

In other partly reported poll news, Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has a tranche of state results from that Galaxy poll that provided federal results yesterday, but none of the voting intention numbers are provided in the online report. The report does relate that Tim Nicholls’ coup against Lawrence Springborg the Friday before last had 42% approval and 27% disapproval, and that Annastacia Palaszczuk leads Nicholls as preferred premier by 44% to 29%. Much is made of the fact that this isn’t as good for Palaszczuk as the 54-26 she happened to record against Lawrence Springborg in November. There will be voting intention eventually, I promise.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham details the full results from the ReachTEL poll. The published respondent-allocated results have the Liberals leading 51-49 in Bass (54.0-46.0 at the 2013 election), 53-47 in Braddon (52.6-47.4) and 51-49 in Lyons (51.2-48.8), with Labor ahead 54-46 in Franklin (55.1-44.9). Each of these results is better for Labor than a 2013 election allocation would have been, particularly in Franklin (where Labor’s lead would have been 52.4-47.6) and Lyons (where the Liberals would have led 54.1-45.9). In Denison, Andrew Wilkie records 33.2% of the primary vote, down from 38.1% at the election, with Labor up from 24.8% to 27.3%. However, ReachTEL has published a Wilkie-versus-Liberal two-party result rather than Wilkie-versus-Labor, of 66-34, even though it was Labor who finished second last time, and would do so again on these numbers. The Jacqui Lambie Network’s average across the five seats is 5.3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,316 comments on “ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling”

Comments Page 24 of 27
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  3. Controversy re comments made by Labor Candidate for Macartur Dr Michael Freelander:

    https://newmatilda.com/2016/05/16/alp-candidate-backs-offshore-concentration-camps-for-the-greater-good/

    …After speaking out against Australia’s ‘concentration camps’, the candidate was forced to back away from his comments. There was no need to do so, writes Michael Brull.

    For those who missed it, the story is this. Freelander said “I would hate to think we would be torturing children in a place like Manus Island — in a concentration camp and I could never support that. On a personal basis I believe it should be closed down and they should be processed in Australia. What we’re doing is cruel.”
    :::
    But if the words were poor, it was not because they offend Jews, but because they offend the consensus of the major political parties. His words shouldn’t have been controversial. He was right. We are torturing children. And they are in concentration camps.
    :::::
    This was apparently an uncontroversial part of what Freelander said. While accusing our government of torturing children should seem like a rather grave accusation, in fact, no one cared. The outrage was all over whether or not he had compared us to the Nazis, which was considered the outrageous part.
    ::::
    I want to pause before moving on at this point. How sick and depraved is a country’s political discourse when accusations of torturing children don’t even register as challenging or controversial? How far gone is Australia when the two major parties who designed that policy don’t even think to feign anger at that charge?

    Hypocrisy would at least indicate shared values. In Australia, torturing children is bipartisan wisdom. Most politicians from the major parties don’t even rise to the moral level of hypocrisy.
    :::
    That kind of reasoning is insane. Perhaps a case can be made that it is better to try to change the ALP from within. But to support the torture of children? For the greater good? How many children should we be willing to torture for the greater good? What is the greater good in this instance? Winning one seat in service of Bill Shorten?

    Supporting torture “for the greater good” should be a scandal. That is not how doctors are supposed to calculate treatment. If we’re going to talk about the greater good, I think Dr Freelander would do a lot more good as a veteran doctor than as a morally compromised politician. It may not be in the Hippocratic Oath, but perhaps Freelander can instead follow a more traditional moral precept: first, do no harm.

  5. I’m waiting for the moment when the paths of Abbott and Turnbull cross on the campaign trail. Abbott will want to be seen with Turnbull but Turnbull doesn’t want to be seen anywhere near the lycra wearer. Can Turnbull outrun Abbott?

  6. daretotread @ #986 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 12:19 pm

    Oh for crying out loud.
    The Greens have quite cleverly wedged Labor on the penalty rates and now you sycophants are screaming. If Shorten had come out with the legislation for penalty rates” you wpoul;d all be lapping it up and telling us all how the world will end if it is not supported.

    The principle of independent Conciliation & Arbitration was instrumental in the formation of Labor in the 19th century and was incorporated in the Constitution as a part of the settlement of the day. This principle has lain at the centre of industrial, economic and political life ever since. Now and again – with the attempt to apply penal sanctions in the 1960s, with WorkChoices, with anti-union provisions adopted in WA and QLD in the 1980’s, with the ABCC bills – the LNP have tried to politicise IR and undo the Commonwealth settlement. The Greens have today copied their tactics with those of the LNP. They are Liberals in drag.

  9. Using the word Torture in relation to Australia’s Border Protection Policies is not going to win any votes. Australians know we are not torturing anyone. Yes, there are people who are mentally anguished that they are unable to end up living in Australia but that is not torture. I could become mentally anguished that I was never allowed to reach my full potential as an AFL player, or have not become a multi-billionaire – but that is not torture.

  10. What would happen if a coalition government gained power and within the first three months passed legislation to remove penalty rates ?

    It would be a very unpopular change that adversely affected millions of people’s livelihoods. The Opposition parties could campaign on it very effectively, and the decision could be reversed after the next election. The fact that the Coalition has never dared legislate the removal of penalty rates, despite dearly wanting to, shows how powerful a deterrent electoral accountability is in this area.

    Think through the prospects of reversing a retrograde decision by the so-called independent umpire. Voters would hate the decision. Millions of families would be adversely affected, including hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people who are already living on the edge. But with Labor promising only to file another submission before a group of technocrats, not to legislate penalty rates as minimum condition of employment, voters would have no means of reversing the decision.

  11. boerwar @ #1021 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 12:59 pm

    guytaur
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 12:50 pm
    BW
    Its fact that Labor and the Greens follow the science on climate change. The LNP do not thanks to the likes of Abbott and Hunt.
    Or are you going to deny this basic fact?

    So does Bjorn Lomborg.
    But Lomborg and the Greens are on the same page with global warming: both have no intention of doing anything real about stopping it; both have every intention of profiting from global warming.

    Precisely.

  14. From Laura Tingle’s column:

    The debate about education was fascinating if for no other reason than both leaders were effectively espousing the Gonski ideas of needs based funding, but arguing very hard about different ways of achieving the goals of that funding. Bill Shorten mounted his case on the need for a lot more money in the system, Malcolm Turnbull argued equally passionately that the outcomes could be achieved with the current amount of money. Even if he could put more money in to education, he said, he wouldn’t because the Coalition doesn’t believe it is necessary. It is pursuing better outcomes on the current money.

    Let’s accept Malcolm’s argument. There’s sufficient funding in the system to implement the ideas of Gonski. Effectively that means a reallocation of resources to those in areas of greater need. Reallocation means reducing funding elsewhere in the system. So Mr Prime Minister, which schools will you cut funding to?

  15. corporate_misfit
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 3:08 pm

    Private Education is expensive and many parents are right on the limit (and often beyond) of their ability to pay.

    I have noted that you are using information from biased source to support your argument…..Perthnow is part of the murdoch empire

  16. Nicholas

    Spot on. Have been thinking this for some time now. Since the 80s we have seen so-called “independent umpires” chip away at the rights and conditions of workers, all in the name of increased “productivity” and “flexibility”. These bodies have been ably assisted by both Labor and Coalition governments to do just that. It has been one way traffic, apart from a brief step in the other direction, when Labor removed parts of the Howard government’s Workchoices laws. It is far too easy currently for politicians to hide behind the “independent umpire” here. I am extremely happy with the Greens announcement this morning because it will make all sides accountable. Labor cannot now be taken seriously on campaigning for penalty rates if they are happy to see an unelected body chip away at them. It is well and truly time for some lines in the sand to be drawn on workers rights and for politicians to be accountable for who they stand up for.

  17. adrian @ #1024 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 1:03 pm

    Here we go here we go…
    More greens crap. Honestly this site is becoming as boring as the election itself.
    If people aren’t crapping on about the greens, they’re responding to CC’s crap.
    Perhaps if we had a separate thread for the Green’s discussion…

    Yes, more Green crap…launched today by the MSM, for the Greens and with the Liberals.

    Really, John Howard could not have done a better job.

  19. Nicholas,

    Also what happens if a group of workers agree to reduce or remove penalty rates in their workplace in exchange for improved leave entitlements or a significantly higher hourly pay rate ? If minimum penalty rates are enshrined in the legislation would that not prevent the workers from exercising a century old right to bargain for their conditions ?

    Get your blinkers off and examine the real world implications of your ideology.

  20. Compact Crank
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 3:24 pm
    Using the word Torture in relation to Australia’s Border Protection Policies is not going to win any votes. Australians know we are not torturing anyone.

    If this is true then why stop people from visiting the refugee camps?..let the media in and let the public decide for themselves

  21. citizen @ #1054 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 1:33 pm

    Turnbull visits Freo minus local candidate
    19 MINUTES AGOMAY 16, 2016
    Turnbull visits Freo minus local candidate
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has campaigned in the federal seat of Fremantle without the Liberal candidate at his side after the political aspirant’s views about indigenous reconciliation and gay marriage emerged.
    Sherry Sufi reportedly posted musings online – which have since been taken down – about his opposition to the apology to the stolen generation and claiming same-sex marriage will lead to polygamy.
    “I hope he’s out there engaging with the people of Fremantle and doing good door-knocking,” Mr Turnbull told reporters in Henderson on Monday when asked why Mr Sufi was not accompanying him.
    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/turnbull-visits-freo-minus-local-candidate/news-story/017bfc4ed704df65464163c78dbbaff6

    This headline is wrong. It should read:

    “Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has campaigned in the federal seat of Fremantle without the Liberal/Green candidate at his side after the political aspirant’s views about indigenous reconciliation and gay marriage emerged.”

  22. citizen
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 3:20 pm
    It would be an absolute waste of valuable time to have Turnbull anywhere near the seat. Abbott will win it with his eyes closed. Turnbull needs to be where the election will be won and that isn’t Warringah.

  24. corporate_misfit
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 3:33 pm

    Oh, I don’t know – maybe the countries that have to issue the visas are a little upset with the abuse the media have heaped upon them. Maybe, just maybe, the Managers of the Centers recognize a direct correlation between acts of self-harm and disturbances with the presence of the media in the centres? You’ll have to ask them as I don’t have any direct links apart from knowing a couple of people who work in them and another outside but high up for the companies that run them.

  25. victoria
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 3:40 pm

    So, where’s the ex-Federal Cabinet Minister outing in a challenge?

  26. nicholas @ #1138 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 3:04 pm

    Luckily for us all, voters pay almost no attention to the New Groupers, who subsist in well-deserved electoral obscurity. On the other hand, Labor will note the same New Groupers have upped the ante in the polling game and are willing to wager the IR system as a whole. This is very dangerous politics.

  27. victoria
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 3:40 pm

    So, where’s the ex-Federal Cabinet Minister puting in a challenge?

  28. I have to say, if the extremely bizarre and increasingly irrational posts from some Labor contributors here is a reflection on how they think the Labor campaign is going, then it’s going to be a very ugly election for Labor. For the record, I think the Labor campaign is actually going ok, but the way some Labor contributors here have become so irrational lately does make me wonder!

  29. Ok, from the Greens commenters here happy to do away with the IRC and its descendants all I can say is you seem to have no grasp on the historical/legal situation.

    And the point of an independent body is to interpret their legislated brief. If the independent body is not adjudicating in the way the public wants then the legislations/regulations that set the considerations should be adjusted.

    As soon as you take any of these potentially politically charged issues and put it in the hands of politicians you get overtly political outcomes. With an independent body that is at least nominally respected by both sides you have the chance to take a step away from the politics. This is the philosophy behind the RBA and the IRC and the AEC and many other such bodies and to dismiss this because you see an opportunity to get your political mitts into the heart of these issues and squeeze some politics out of it that might benefit you … kind of sickening TBH.

  31. matt31 @ #1166 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 3:29 pm

    The New Groupers are willing to play politics with the IR system, just as Bjelke-Petersen, the Courts, Howard, Reith, Costello, Abbott and Turnbot were and remain prepared to seek political advantage in the same arena. This is just mischievous politics. It is about as self-serving as it is possible to be, even by the lamentable standards of the New Groupers.

  32. CC

    A while back in reference to 7/11 workers you referred to dodgy visas.

    These are invariably set up by big end of town spivs …. the company strategists who can’t wait to get vulnerable OS workers to exploit.

    Ditto is the case for the 457 visa rorts.

    Big end of town spivs will do whatever it takes to reduce wages or alternatively get workers vulnerable to exploitation.

    Of course the dodgy visa is the weapon the spivs use to hold over the head of the worker to ensure subservience.

  33. Another question for Nicholas and others herd crowing about the greens concern for workers and their penalty rates.

    Why, if the greens are so opposed to any cuts to,penalty rates, did they not lodge a submission to FWA arguing the case for their retention ?

    Labor was the only one of the three parties that actually lodged a submission in support of penalty rates.

    The greens are full of shit.

    Cheers and a great afternoon to all.

  34. Briefly

    Utter nonsense. We have industrial relations matters protected by legislation currently. What we are seeing at the moment is a deliberate and calculated attack by the business community on the penalty rates of people who in many cases rely on them for their very survival. I don’t know what you have seen in Western Australia, but here in South Australia this campaign has gone to extreme lows.

    So, let’s assume for a minute that the “independent umpire” decides that there should be absolutely no changes to weekend penalty rates. Do you think for a second that the business lobby will end their campaign? You know as well as I do that is not going to happen. We have seen this over the last thirty or so years; the rights of workers getting chipped away at in the name of “flexibility” and “productivity”.

    So yes, it is time for a line in the sand. Weekend penalty rates are far too important to be compromised and should absolutely be set in legislation. Any Conservative government then wanting to wind back penalty rates would then have nowhere to hide, they would actually then have to pass legislation through both houses of Parliament to do so. Failing to do this will have the inevitable outcome of eroding weekend penalty rates, just as other long held workplace rights have been eroded in the name of “flexibility”.

  35. I agree I’m fed up talking about the Greens. Seriously they have 1 seat in house of reps and the mainstream media report “GREENS COULD FOR A COALITION WITH LABOR!!!!!”. Seriously they have as much as any other independent or Katter party MP. I’m sick of the discussion and Newscorp and Liberals are doing this because they know that Turnbull won’t win on policy. Greens are doing this because they know that if the narrative becomes about Labor vs Liberals – the Greens suddenly become irrelevant which hurts their campaign.

    I’m over it.

  36. Labor messaging on education is all really about individual participation in the economy.

    In the constellations within which we all understand ourselves and the world around us, “the economy” is usually seen as some kind of big, unknowable and essentially autonomous machine. Labor’s proposition is that education is the means by which each one of us – and each family to which we belong – may find a path and a place inside that multi-dimensioned constellation.

    Labor has far better credentials on education than the Liberals, which is to say Labor can show individuals how they can achieve personal and familial economic success and that Labor is willing to help every person along this life-path.

    The LNP like to think they have superior credentials on the meta-economy. But this is a domain that most people do not actually understand. The LNP might as well be better at astrophysics. Labor, on the other hand, can talk convincingly about supporting the economy of the individual.

    This is likely to win them the election.

  37. So it would be ok for workers to live for almost three years without their penalty rates ?

    Better than living forever without penalty rates (which is what will happen if the “independent umpire” decides that hospitality and retail workers shouldnt get penalty rates any more, and Labor rolls over as it is promising to do).

  39. “Private Education is expensive and many parents are right on the limit (and often beyond) of their ability to pay.”

    That’s because taxpayers are subsidising schools that don’t need funding and ignoring schools that do. Private or public. Who has room to fund literacy when we need another swimming pool.

  40. Jesus TF Christ, log in to check polling discussion and there are Greens pontificating to Labor about industrial relations.
    Get engaged for, oh, 115 years or so , and you might be taken seriously.

  41. Labor is promising to lay down its arms if the “independent umpire” cuts penalty rates.
    Is anyone naive enough to believe that if the decision is to keep penalty rates the business lobby and the Coalition will lay down their arms?

  42. I think I will take the result of BKs experiment as a promising sign and just add “Green” word to SFTU. That will make this place half bearable again.

  44. Player One
    Just come back grandson says can’t put stfu on an android tablet, unfortuntate after looking at blog today, guess scrolling finger will have to work overtime now, as overseas tomorrow with just tablet. That is until I get sick of it and stop subscribing to Crikey

  45. Slav G – but Antony Green sometimes drops pearls of wisdom here, you wouldn’t want to miss those! Seriously, you wouldn’t.

  46. “As soon as you take any of these potentially politically charged issues and put it in the hands of politicians you get overtly political outcomes. With an independent body that is at least nominally respected by both sides you have the chance to take a step away from the politics. ”

    Thank you. Labor’s position may be difficult to explain in a media obsessed with “gotcha” moments; but it is the right one.

  47. pegasus @ #1076 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 1:56 pm

    Labor’s IR spokesman refuses to guarantee weekend penalty rates. Basically saying Shorten is promising what he can’t deliver.

    Or, another way you could look at is, is he wants to keep his big business mates on side.
    Political donations from for-profit corporate organisations corrupt.

    No, not willing to support another Greens’ cockamamie idea and to agree to support the decision of the independent umpire.

    Just as well Bill Shorten belled the cat today on The Greens’ doolally idea to hand over the legislative gun to a Coalition government to amend their legislation and shoot Penalty Rates out of the sky.

  49. Ipsos Australia ‏@IpsosAustralia 5h5 hours ago
    Ipsos Australia Retweeted Sorceror43
    The next Fairfax Ipsos poll results will be published by Fairfax Media on Saturday, 21st May.

    I suppose this is part of moving to the weekend only print editions? I presume this means rather than using a dated sample they will be polling midweek. Don’t know why, but I prefer weekend polling. Elections are on the weekend.

  50. marrickville mauler @ #1190 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 4:16 pm

    Jesus TF Christ, log in to check polling discussion and there are Greens pontificating to Labor about industrial relations.
    Get engaged for, oh, 115 years or so , and you might be taken seriously.

    Yeah, there’s Green grubs crawling all over PB today. It’s part of their social media strategy, lol.

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