Morgan has released a poll of federal voting intention derived only from this weekend’s round of face-to-face and SMS polling, and not combining two weeks of polling as per its usual practice. Compared with the poll from the two weekends before the election was called, the poll records a solid drop in the Coalition primary vote from 40% to 36.5%, with Labor up half a point to 33%, the Greens up two to 15.5% and the Nick Xenophon team up one to 5%. On the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, this converts into an increase in Labor’s lead from 51-49 to 52.5-47.5. Going off 2013 election preference flows, the change is from 50.5-49.5 to 52-48. Despite the shorter than usual field work period, the sample is a considerable 2318.
scott bales @ #462 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 11:09 am
The only group that benefit from this line of argument is The Split. They will be whistling in the dark for a long time to come.
Ken McNeil
Cheers
“By the way any mention of Morgan on the ABC (or anywhere else) yet?”
Roy Morgan’s polls often get ignored from the mainstream media including the ABC, and to be fair deservedly so. If the media took Roy Morgans polling as gospel you would see alot distorted commentary on what the public viewpoint on the election really is.
George Megalogenis made a comment on Insiders a couple weeks ago that Labor’s primary vote at 36% can’t win federal elections. So Royal Morgan Labor proclaiming Labor would win on a primary vote of 33% is certainly a distortion of realty.
jackol @ #470 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 11:18 am
quite right
Dan Gulberry:
Kate Carnell always reminds me of Jerry Gee, the ventroliquist Ron Blaskett’s sidekick. I can’t do a link, though.
Ever noticed how her head wobbles from side to side, just like the aforementioned Jerry Gee?
Briefly, So you didn’t read my response to that. You honestly think any politician is stupid enough to stand up in the House and call for support, simply hoping it works out for them?
Both majors will beg, barter, plead, cajole and threaten, in private, BEFORE the vote. The outcome will be decided in a dumpling house, not the House.
That is democracy.
If Labor proudly claim the middle ground on issues such as Asylum Seekers and penalty rates- the Greens are doing them a favour by casting them as moderates. I for one am not too concerned about the Labor/Green bruhaha if handled well. Its no different from Turnbull rejecting his candidates extreme right views- we just have a “broad church” double standard by the MSM
I was only wondering how Aldo Giurgola was getting on the other day. Though I never met the man I’ve heard nothing but good from all who did.
I don’t think he’d even been to Australia before winning the design competition for Parliament House, but he fell in love with the place and moved here permanently becoming a citizen in 2000. The tour guides at Parliament will tell you that Aldo would still often pop in for a visit. He continued to practice late in life and designed some other very notable works including the rebuilding of St Patrick’s Cathedral in Parramatta which he won his second Sulman prize for (Parliament House being his first).
I think it’s very fitting that our Parliament was designed by someone who was well known and respected in his field overseas, saw something about us that informed his design, and fell in love with the place enough to spend the rest of his life here. A very Australian story to me. RIP Aldo.
scott bales @ #506 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 12:40 pm
If you think The Split – who will likely have just the one MP – will vote to enable the formation of a Liberal government then you have an even lower opinion of them than I do.
paddy o @ #507 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 12:42 pm
Hi Paddy O.
Apologies, but every time I see your gravatar I can’t help but think how it would be ideal for the greens… little green people … leprechauns. 😀
Re last night’s 7:30 spotlight on the Indi candidates:
Elle McFeast (aka Libby Gore) now has the complete set: Bookend interviews with Chopper Read AND Sophie Mirabella.
paddy o @ #507 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 12:42 pm
Labor will generally ignore the apostates just as much as possible.
Essential out today. Full results not yet on their site, but here is the first part of Bernard’s Crikey article about it.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/05/17/essential-labor-clings-to-lead-as-turnbull-slides/
Essential: Labor clings to lead as Turnbull slides further
Malcolm Turnbull continues to let voters down, but the Coalition’s position isn’t getting any worse, today’s Essential poll shows.
Bernard Keane Politics Editor
May 17, 2016
Labor retains a narrow 51%-49% two-party preferred lead in today’s Essential Report poll, enough to deliver the tiniest of majorities if it were reproduced on a national basis on July 2. And PM Malcolm Turnbull has continued his decline in the eyes of voters.
For the first time, the Prime Minister has a net negative approval rating, with 40% of voters approving of his performance and 42% disapproving. Turnbull’s problems with voters began around March, when voters appeared to run out of patience with him and began souring on him.
The Prime Minister, however, still holds a generous 15-point lead as preferred prime minister, 43%-28%, but that too has come down, from 44%-22% in April. And a persistent feature of the approval responses — that Shorten had a significantly higher disapproval rating among Labor voters than Turnbull had among Coalition voters — has vanished entirely. Now, more Coalition voters disapprove of Turnbull (17%) than Labor voters who disapprove of Shorten (15%).
On voting intention, the Coalition remains on 42% and Labor on 38%, while the Greens are down a point to 9%. The Nick Xenophon Team is polling 3% nationally, but the primary focus of the Xenophon campaign is on South Australia and, to a lesser extent, Victoria. Labor’s lead on a uniform national basis would deliver Labor 21 seats, barely enough to form a government in its own right. The good news for the government is that the recent momentum against it on the two-party preferred basis has clearly stopped, setting the stage, perhaps, for a comeback over the next seven weeks.
Lenore thinks Turnbull is playing “The long game” ..Lol!!
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/17/election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-liberal-party-coalition-profile?CMP=share_btn_tw#comment-74383872
Bemused- Don’t sully the reputation of leprechauns!!
paddy o @ #515 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 12:51 pm
Well I did start with an apology. 😆
In what sense is it moderate to throw hospitality and retail workers under a bus?
@ Briefly – you want to quote where you think I said I believe the Greens will reach an agreement with the Coalition?
What I have said:
* There will be multiple minors in the HoR
* Both parties will attempt to reach a deal with all minors (Exception, Labor – Nationals will not happen obviously)
* These deals could take either the form of a formal coalition, or an informal understanding.
* Labor are more likely than the Liberals to succeed in their negotiations, which is based on my assumptions around the policies of the various likely minors, as well Shorten’s negotiating skills developed in his union days, vs Turnbull’s tanty throwing skills developed in his merchant banker days.
Really the story of the day is the backpackers backflip and another possible revision to the budget bottom line- economic managers pffft!
Poor dumb Lenore. Still thinks the ‘Real Malcolm’ is just on the other side of the election.
He’s there today Lenore you dreamer. This is all there is and all there will ever be.
Thanks Leroy.
I think this is good for Labor. Their PV is consolidating at a level that is high enough for a win. Conversely, the LNP will not make it back to majority territory with a PV of just 42%. There are not enough prefs going their way for them to hold on. The LNP campaign is pitifully bare. It is not possible to campaign for more than 50 straight days with a three word slogan and no policies other than the 2014 budget cuts and a tax gift to the top end.
Hopefully, voters – who seldom ever listen to the Greens – will look right past their general mischief and continue to coalesce behind Labor.
Good result.
Boo
Nicholas- through enterprise bargaining and a lift in the normal hours wage rates worker may trade a reduction in the level of penalty rates on weekends- its all about a decent total salary and conditions. Progressives can have a flexible and fair industrial relations system without going back to a pre-accord era!
Good thing that’s actually NOT what the ALP are doing then isn’t it?
Too bloody funny
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
@TheKouk I still think they will win, but win ugly…
Peter van Onselen
22m22 minutes ago
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
Just imagine the chaos that would ensue internally if the Libs lose this election…wow!
Keane think that the Lib’s poll drop might be plateauing. Meanwhile Malky’s popularity keeps dropping. So maybe, after the usual lag, the libs will drop again!
scott bales @ #518 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 12:56 pm
You miss the point. If the Split are unable to lend their votes to the coalition then they can exercise no pressure on Labor. Labor will ignore them, safe in the knowledge that the result will be just the same as if a deal had been done. Labor will not deal with the Greens because there is no need to. The point is that – for Labor – any deal with the Greens would be a bad deal.
Of course, if the Greens did lend their numbers to the Liberals they would likely cease to exist at the next election. The calculation would not be lost on Labor.
BRIEFLY – What does Keane think Malcolm’s popularity nosedive is going to do to the Liberal vote? Cause a rebound? Until his popularity starts pulling out of its dive, they have no hope because he IS the liberal party.
Some of the commentary on the Greens here is interesting, but the angst-ridden hand wringing is tiresome.
To lighten the mood a little; we’ve all sent an email to the wrong person, but imagine this;
http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/electricity-boss-mistakenly-sent-climate-skeptic-handbook/7418740
One can only imagine the carnage.
compact crank @ #522 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 1:00 pm
The WA Liberals must be wondering what went wrong! After July 2 they will have maybe 4 Senators and 4 MP’s. After March next year they will have about 15 MLA’s. So much treasure lost.
Lenore is very earnest.
SCOTT – Shorter Briefly: Labor will offer the Greens life or death. It’s not even a choice.
kevin-one-seven @ #528 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 1:09 pm
Turnbot’s -ve net-sat will be a source of concern for them. They should not be surprised, Neither he nor the government of which is the nominal leader have any record of achievement. They are a conspicuous failure by any standard.
A hung parliament should have the ALP salivating, not because it will provide them with government but for the very opposite.
In such a situation Turnbull would still probably have the most seats (probably just barely) and the prerogative in trying to form the first government. Good luck with making that work with a fractious and hateful party rump behind him. Can the Turnbull aura even survive such a indecisive drubbing? I would think that would be unlikely. In such a situation he would have no mandate, be almost unable to properly prosecute his agenda, and would would in constant danger of it all coming unstuck. It would make himself and the party he leads look bad. We would have at most three years of stasis, but probably less because it wouldn’t work and we would be back to the polls. We’ve been here, remember? If Shorten manages to win 14-15 seats, he has more than exceeded what should be expected of a first term opposition leader, and someone who was pretty much written off by the media as being worse than useless. As for any deals with minors, If I was Shorten I would go into the negotiations much like Abbott did in 2010….and that is to lose them. Let the Liberals get their hands dirty and disappoint everyone.
How such a low Coalition vote would translate in the senate is also interesting.
The Guardian Oz has some good columnists and economic writers, but its press gallery unit is appalling.
Precisely. Turnbull’s Netsats are THE leading indicator to see where things are heading. If his sats are diving then the Libs PV and 2PP will follow sure as night follows day. He was the only thing that lifted them out of the 2 year losing position they were in. If the Malcolm Myth doesn’t make it to July 2 then they’re all toast.
7 more weeks of Malcolm droning ‘jobs and growth’ like a caged Galah isn’t going to do his sat ratings anything positive.
Actually does anyone have a Galah they can train to say ‘Jobs and Growth’ whilst wearing a Top Hat? Could be a job going in the Liberal Party for someone with that skillset on July 3.
Possible Mal’s 1% Budget bounce has evaporated and we’re back to norMALity- which is the gradual slide!
@ Briefly – As the last 3 years and Game of Thrones should have taught you, anyone can gain power. Keeping it and using it are something different entirely.
Sure, if Labor can get to 75 votes without the Greens (or 76- # Greens seats if they win more than 1), then they COULD ignore the Greens, and the Greens WOULD still vote yes to confidence.
But that is not the same as saying Labor SHOULD do it.
What then? they have pissed off an ally that has the power to block everything. If Labor needs the Greens to get HoR majority, then they certainly need them in the Senate as well. If the Liberals lose, Tony Abbott will be back in his favourite job (loto), and you ain’t seen feral yet so there is no chance of the Liberals supporting legislation saying the sky is blue.
No, much better to play nice. An agreement prevents the media from hyperventilating about how fragile the government is (see QLD), and keeps the Greens as allies, which Labor will appreciate as soon as they start trying to pass legislation.
Very sad – ABC Fact Check to close
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/telling-porkies-gets-easier-for-pollies-as-abc-shuts-down-its-fact-check-unit-20160517-gowt3v.html#ixzz48sakt1oI
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
Now isn’t the time to “play nice” with parties who aren’t trying to defeat the Abbott/Turnbull government.
From The West today….a lol a minute…just ask CC
Agreed Mimhoff, I am only talking about the Greens. The other minors are unlikely to be required in the senate.
There seems to be a bit of a parallel with this election as with the recent election in the UK. The 2 parties were level for months but when the crunch came on polling day all the conservative worms came out of the woodwork and re elected Cameron with a large majority.I hope history wont repeat itself on July 2nd here.
Notagin112 see it clearly. As TPOF has also noted, Labor has no interest in governing in minority. If it comes to it they will let Turnbull destroy himself trying to hold together the RWNJs that hate him and the Greens and Indies that hate just as much. If Dick isn’t a complete dope he won’t play ball and so the whole thing will collapse.
Then the GG goes to Shorten and as his first recommendation to the GG as PM Bill calls a House only election to solve the deadlock. Like Fraser in 75 he goes to the election with all the authority of the PM and with his team all as the current ministers. Unlike 75 the Libs gut each other and degenerate into the rabble they are.
The only question in that scenario is how big a margin does Labor win by.
Gillard did the deal in 2010 because she was in government trying desperately to hang on. That will be Turnbull’s position if he can’t get to 75 (assuming Katter as a lock). All the momentum will be with Labor and this mob aren’t capable of holding it together for more than a few weeks if they had to deal with a diverse group of indies/minors in both houses.
Briefly – I’m sure the LNP vote will come off it’s highs but to call swing as large as you are is ridiculous. The ALP will be ecstatic to have 4 MHR.
We could really do with a Bludgertrack update to bring some perspective into the commentary here. My guess is that it will still show the Liberals in front.
He came, he saw and he waffled.
The title of the first book tracing the aftermath of the Malcolm Months is sorted.
Essential still at 51-49 to Labor. Primaries: L-NP 42 (steady), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (down one). Essential has also joined ReachTEL in dumping PUP for NXT, who debut on 3%.
scott bales @ #538 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 1:19 pm
This is the mistake you keep making. The Greens are not an ally of Labor. On a good day, they are an opponent. On a bad day, they are an enemy.
I have never watched G-o-T. But what is plain is the G’s are in Parliament but not in power. As long as they sit as a minor Senate rump they will always be deprived of power. They have knowledge of power other than the occasional use of a veto. If they don’t hold the B-o-P, they do not even get to use that wholly negative and usually destructive device.
Obviously, they thirst for power. They are most terribly parched by their exclusion. That’s easy to see. But this does not mean they will be able to drink. Their longing cannot and will not be quenched. It’s a sad fact of life that politics is mostly about loss. In their case, it is about the bitterness of loss unbroken. Still, they cannot complain. They have chosen this. It has never been forced on them. They have brought it upon themselves. At present, they seek to inflict their losses on others. They will necessarily fail.
jobsongrowthe already having an impact
http://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/anz-announces-200-job-cuts-in-response-to-sluggish-economy-20160516-gowpe5.html