Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll tells a familiar tale, with the two-party vote unchanged over four successive polls, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal decline levelling off, and Bill Shorten continuing to rise.

The latest Newspoll for The Australian is the fourth successive result from the pollster showing Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 36% (down one) and Greens 11% (steady). Leadership ratings echo other pollsters in finding Malcolm Turnbull levelling off after a steep decline in the early months of the year, with approval steady at 38% and disapproval up one to 50%, and Bill Shorten continuing to improve, with approval up four to 37% and disapproval down three to 49%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 49-27 to 46-31. Expectations of a Coalition in have diminished considerably since the question was last asked in March, with 44% now favouring a Coalition win (down 11%) and 33% favouring Labor (up eight). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1709.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,704 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. Cat

    You do sometime talk twaddle, although you mother sound fabulous.

    In NSW the leading Dr associated with abortion and legalising it was a member of the Comminists Party and also very active in the peace movement. These days she would be a Green of the Lee Rhiannon variety (she is still alive).

    If you accept the watermelon view of the Greens then you must ALSO accept their role in the right to choose movement.

    Now it probably is significant that it is Larissa Waters who has raised this issue. In Qld abortion is NOT legal and there was in Anna Blighs time the arrest of a young girl and boyfriend for using some kind of abortion indusing drug (sorry I forget the details). however it highlighted the fact that abortion is NOT legal here. Anna Bligh probably under pressure from cabinet did not act to change the laws.

    As I said earlier it disappointed the feminist activists quite a bit.

    However while I think it is perfectly OK for the Greens to push this issue I also recognise that it IS at attempt to stay relevant on these social issues and I guess to put pressure on the ALP. it is an election strategy. Sad but true.

  4. P1,

    Not really.

    If you read in between the lines, both Labor and LNP are saying the Libs are doing OK in the marginal (although it’s close). So broad TPP numbers don’t really tell you what is happening where it counts. This is what is informing the narrative atm. Even reading WB’s stuff you see the Libs with a slight advantage.

    However, the Big Mo is with Labor .
    As I said earlier, if Labor can get to 38% on Primaries they will win. They are still not there yet.

  5. I think I was once ‘internally polled’.
    A call came through, and the surveying company asked my details, finding that I fitted the target for polling. They proceeded to ask stuff which seemed a bit push-pollish, so I interrupted to enquire on whose behalf they were polling, wishing to give no aid nor comfort to my ideological enemies. The interviewer refused to tell me who commissioned the poll. I refused to accept that they would not reveal their paymaster to allow me informed consent to participation. After I demanded to speak to the boss or shift manager, or anyone with some power I got lightly abused by someone up the chain, who cast aspersions on my ancestors because I demanded to know who was polling me. To this day I think it was Peta’s minions.

  8. Look, if it hadn’t been for dtt alerting the world to the dangers of ebola, we’d all be dead.

    Fortunately, the WHO people read this blog and were able to save us.

  9. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/abortion-the-issue-most-queensland-politicians-wont-touch-20160321-gnnrrm.html

    Just eight of Queensland’s Labor Government MPs were willing to come out in support of decriminalising abortion.

    Queensland Greens Senator Larissa Waters began a campaign last year to find where the 55th Parliament sat on the inclusion of abortion within the criminal code in Queensland, following reports women were travelling interstate to access the procedure.

    From the 89 letters she sent out more than once, eight returned a response in favour of removing the procedure from the criminal code, where it has sat since the 1800s. Another four were against it, while six were unclear. The rest did not respond.

    In a speech to federal parliament, Ms Waters said it was beyond time for change.

  10. May I also say that I am sorry that the Greens have raised this issue, because I do not want to give an inch to the RWNJ and still feel the issue is not yet cememted solidly enough in our political psyche to make it political.

    i hope I am wrong.

  11. [Diogenes
    Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 9:27 pm
    I assume Crossin has burnt a few too many bridges to get her senate seat back.]

    Apparently she’s not eligible as she’s moved to Victoria.

  13. Question,
    But some focus groups can be spot on with their assessment. Leaks can make quite a splash in the media.

  15. dtt,
    Before my Mother and Father-In-Law were in the Labor Party, they were in the Communist Party. Stalin put an end to that love affair. Thus they would also have known the doctor you refer to.

    But you’re correct about one thing. The Greens are just politicking with this issue.

  17. Crossin in her interview on ABC RN Drive said she lives in Victoria and said wtte she has moved on and has no interest in being a senator.

  18. Peg

    Wow! I knew it was a low number but that is a woeful figure.

    Cat, Victoria, Confessions and others – you owe a few apologies here. The issue does need to be addressed.

    Perhaps to my shame I really do NOT know the details of the legality of abortion in Qld. It seems to be more restrictive than in NSW and definitely than Victoria.

  19. MM

    Of course, you would know that this makes “Predator” the only action film (so far) to feature two future US State Governors.

    I didn’t know Ventura was in it. Wiki says another actor in Predator went on to run for Kentucky governor so there were almost three governors in one film.

  21. Bingo

    Dave Donovan
    1h1 hour ago
    Dave Donovan ‏@davrosz
    It’s lovely how much joy Leigh Sales gets from interviewing Coalition MPs, as opposed to how aggravating she finds those ALP MPs. #abc730

  22. Abortion is a state issue.

    Of course, federal pollies who are weak on policy like to talk about state issues. They can say what they like and, as they’re in no position to deliver, they’re never held to account.

    Sophie Mirabella loved talking about state issues.

    Raising state issues in a federal election is an admission of weakness. If the Greens want to change Queensland’s abortion laws, they need to campaign for that in Queensland.

  23. Cat

    I thought you said Bertrand Weiner so I assumed your mother was in Victoria.

    My point is that many of the old CPA moved on the become Greens, especially in NSW. I suspect in Victoria, where the ALP was more progressive, they may have joined the ALP.

  25. 28 Sept 2015:

    http://www.mehreenfaruqi.org.au/greens-mp-launches-nsw-abortion-law-reform-campaign-at-martin-place/

    Greens NSW MP and Spokesperson for the Status of Women Dr Mehreen Faruqi MLC, has launched her community campaign to decriminalise abortion and enact privacy zones around abortion clinics, to bring NSW in line with other states today. The event was being held to coincide with the Global Day of Action for Access to Safe and Legal Abortion and marked the launch of the #End12 Campaign, that seeks to remove Division 12, which contains abortion offences, from the Crimes Act .
    ::::
    The event follows the release yesterday of polling numbers showing overwhelming support for the key components of a Greens Abortion Law Reform bill that has been introduced into NSW Parliament (‘Make it legal and accessible: poll on women’s right to choose in NSW’- Sun Herald 27/9)

  27. Zoomster
    Abortion is a federal issue when the issue is drugs (the RU242 debate) and when the cost of any procedure is funded by medicare. It is as much a federal issue as education or hospital funding.

  28. question @ #1608 Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 10:31 pm

    Poroti,
    Funny that
    Bemused, good to know.

    I was once involved in conducting a poll at the local level in my electorate. All done by local ALP members and the result very close to the actual.
    It would be very easy for any party, or someone on their behalf, to register an ABN and use it as a cover for their polling efforts even if the expertise and manpower was contracted to one of the big pollsters.

  29. What, particularly, is the problem with the Greens’ policy idea? The SMH piece I read (c/ Pegasus) didn’t include any Greens attacks on Labor, simply a statement that it was time to make abortion services more accessible, particularly in conservative States which currently highly restrict it.
    If they’d had a slam at Labor’s expense, I’d understand the outrage (Labor aren’t perfect on the issue, but they’re streets ahead of the Libs) – as it is, I’m just confused. Reproductive justice has long been a central tenet of the Greens – even if you think they’ve been ineffectual about it, they’re consistent in this belief.

  31. “So for the pusillanimous Greens to come onto this blog today and act all high and mighty about Abortion Rights and attempt to denigrate the supporters of the Labor Party here and the Labor Party itself, as not having done enough!”
    Except that in certain cases – such as Queensland – the Labor Party has not done enough, C@tmomma. As late as 2015, they were stating that they weren’t going to change the laws.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-abortion-laws-to-stay-the-same-dath-20151026-gkiy7s.html
    Fortunately, there is a private members bill being moved by Rob Pyne this year. I don’t know if it will succeed, but it’s better than nothing. I should note that Pyne moved this after he left the ALP.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/head-20160512-gottzj.html

  32. I couldn’t work out the fuss about abortion, being from SA but there is a very serious problem in Queensland if this is true. How can the public system only perform 1% of terminations???

    “In Queensland, just 1 per cent of terminations are carried out in the public system so many women face hundreds or even thousands of dollars in costs in the private system,” she said.

  34. C@tmomma,
    Wells said re Greens and abortion law. The Feds have no power in this fight, and the g’s are just trying to greensplain Labor people’s decades of work in this area, fighting the conservatives, including those in their own party. ALP women (and men) who worked for years to get laws changed and services provided have every right to cry foul over the freeloaders.

  35. dtt
    So no problem if the Greens restrict their policy to those areas.

    However, the legality of abortions is purely a State issue.

  36. It sounds like the Queensland Labor government would be at home in Alabama. Still, it is a state rights issue, as the Americans say.

  37. “ALP women (and men) who worked for years to get laws changed and services provided have every right to cry foul over the freeloaders.”
    Allies in the fight to end anti-abortion laws are now “freeloaders”? Logic – how does it work.

  39. peter murphy @ #1638 Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 10:50 pm

    “ALP women (and men) who worked for years to get laws changed and services provided have every right to cry foul over the freeloaders.”
    Allies in the fight to end anti-abortion laws are now “freeloaders”? Logic – how does it work.

    As usual, they try to ride on the coat tails of the ALP, when Labor has done just about all the hard yards, and claim the glory.

  40. Matt @ 1630,

    Reproductive justice has long been a central tenet of the Greens – even if you think they’ve been ineffectual about it, they’re consistent in this belief.

    Except that Reproductive Justice has been a central tenet of the Labor Party long before The Greens were even a twinkle in Bob Brown’s eye.

  42. Dio, thanks. Didn’t know about Sonny Landham’s tilt at Kentucky governor which would indeed have made 3 governors from Predator cast.
    Slightly ironic to have Native American dumped as candidate due to racist remarks – but racist they were (anti-Arab rather than legit comment on US history such as “you white bastards stole our land” ). Some Native American tribes owned black slaves of course, heavens life is complicated.

  44. Maybe if Larissa Waters is so hot to trot on this abortion issue she needs to resign from federal parliament and run to represent The Greens in the Queensland State Parliament. 🙂

  46. Coincidentally, just caught Larissa Waters on SKY being interveiwed on the abortion issue.

    It was clear that she assumed that the Queensland situation applied to all of Australia, and the solutions she offered were around solving the problems created by Queensland’s laws – for example, she wanted Medicare changed to reflect the ‘substantial out of pocket expenses’ experienced by women seeking an abortion.

    Seriously, as someone who was on the local health board and who took teenage health classes, even in relatively remote locations abortions are easily obtained locally, with no more out of pocket expenses beyond driving to the local hospital.

    Yes, the situation is appalling in Queensland, but it’s very difficult to fix a problem pertaining to one state via the federal system.

  50. Dont know if the whole thing is there though

    Cuts of as soon as the questions from the press begin.
    He’s Agile, Innovative and can even Cut & Run in CyberSpace.

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