Electorate polling round-up

Scattered reports of internal polling provide encouragement for Labor in New South Wales, but find them struggling in a number of other places.

There’s a bunch of electorate-level internal polling doing the rounds at the moment, something that always needs to be viewed with regard to the fact that those who commissioned might only be publicising the results that they like. Nonetheless, the display at the bottom of this post, which is updated with all the latest results, shows up no distinction in the average swing recorded across media and private polls over the course of the campaign period. As for published polling, Essential Research should, as usual, be with us later today. Roy Morgan has decided to dispense with its national polling and instead focus on electorate-level polling for the remainder of the campaign, the latest example of which isolates the ten strongest seats for the Greens. These results are based on samples of around 300 aggregated from all the outfit’s regular polling going back to January. That means a good deal of the survey period was from a time when the Coalition still had a substantial lead, and the “others” vote was lower than it has since become. Morgan has presumably, and probably correctly, concluded that it will generate more headlines this way than if it were merely one national poll among many.

• The Age reports that a poll conducted for the Greens suggests the party to be well in the hunt in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman, despite the blow dealt them when the Liberals announced its how-to-vote cards would preference Labor ahead of them. The poll has Greens candidate Alex Bhathal leading Labor member David Feeney by 41% to 28% on the primary vote, which pans out to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences, and would produce much the same result on 2013 election preferences. The automated phone poll was conducted by Lonergan Research from a large sample of 1600 respondents. However, The Age report also relates that “internal and larger-scale polling for the ALP” actually shows Labor leading on the primary vote. The report also says Labor’s poll shows the party to be “much more popular with voters under 24 than the Greens”, whose “strongest age bracket is 35-50 year olds” – a finding that frankly isn’t credible.

• The Advertiser reports that “high-profile Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis is facing a shock defeat to the Liberals in her inner-city seat of Adelaide”, although it’s based on a rather thin sample of 364. The poll was conducted for the ALP by ReachTEL, which I’ve never seen associated with a sample of this size before (UPDATE: And sure enough, ReachTEL denies it was their poll). According to the report, the poll credits Liberal candidate David Colovic with a 51-49 lead over Labor member Kate Ellis. The report speculates that Labor provided the paper with the polling “to rally support for Ms Ellis in the face of a statewide surge by the Nick Xenophon Team”.

• The Australian Education Union is circulating three ReachTEL polls conducted in marginal seats in New South Wales, one of which shows Labor with a commanding lead of 55-45 in the legendary bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro. Primary votes are 41.2% for Liberal incumbent Peter Hendy, 38.6% for Labor challenger Mike Kelly, and 11.0% for the Greens. A fairly extraordinary flow of respondent-allocated preferences pushes Labor’s two-party total well past where it would be based on 2013 election preferences, in this case 52.6%. Sample: 719.

• In Lindsay, Liberal member Fiona Scott has a narrow lead of 51-49 over Labor candidate Emma Husar, the primary votes being Liberal 42.9%, Labor 36.6%, Christian Democratic Party 6.4% and Greens 5.3%. Based on previous election preferences, Scott’s lead is 51.6-48.4. Sample: 656.

• In Page, Labor challenger Janelle Saffin leads Nationals member Kevin Hogan 52-48 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, from primary votes of Nationals 42.1%, Labor 38.4% and Greens 12.2%. Sample 788.

• The Daily Telegraph reports that a poll of the South Australian regional seat of Barker, conducted by ReachTEL for the CFMEU from a sample of 869, has Nick Xenophon Team candidate James Stacey leading Liberal incumbent Tony Pasin by 52-48.

• A ReachTEL poll for the eastern Melbourne electorate of Menzies, conducted for independent candidate Stephen Mayne, credits Liberal member Kevin Andrews with a two-party preferred vote of 61-39, which would be 63-37 on previous election preference flows. Andrews’ share of the two-party vote in 2013 was 64.4%. The poll was conducted June 13 from a sample of 719.

2016-06-21-marginal-seat-polls

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

957 comments on “Electorate polling round-up”

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  2. I finally received a Liberal pamphlet in the mail (in Eden-Monaro). I do wonder about the components of the Jobs and Growth mantra. Defence industries, for example, strike me as likely to be concentrated in a few places (like SA for boats). I wonder how many people outside such obvious hubs have ever met anyone who works in a defence industry? And innovation sounds like such a motherhood statement: Mr Turnbull might think that talking about agility and innovation sounds modern and uplifting, but again, I wonder how many of us have had that sort of stuff jammed into us in our workplaces for the last ten years, typically by spiv change consultants who don’t understand the business, to the point where the mere mention of the words leads to a search for the nearest deadly weapon.

  3. Briefly
    Do you really believe that if Labor has say 71 seats, with three Greens and independents such as Windsor, Wilkie and McGowan they would NOT seek government. They would leave Turnbull as PM? Pigs with wings.

  4. Mr Turnbull’s denials of any nefarious plans for Medicare bring to mind the story, originally recounted (I think) by Hunter S. Thompson, of a contest in Texas in which Lyndon Johnson looked like being taken down to the wire by a pig farmer. Johnson proposed spreading a story that the farmer had been enjoying the pleasurable company of his sows. When the campaign manager replied that they couldn’t say it because it wasn’t true, Johnson replied “Of course it’s not, but let’s make him deny it.”.

  5. Evan Parsons:

    I’m not surprised to learn you woke up to Labor now that a male is party leader once again. I’m sure it’ll be a different story if Plibersek was to be elected leader.

  6. daretotread @ #903 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 11:37 pm

    Briefly
    Do you really believe that if Labor has say 71 seats, with three Greens and independents such as Windsor, Wilkie and McGowan they would NOT seek government. They would leave Turnbull as PM? Pigs with wings.

    They may offer to form a Government. But they would not bargain for it. Others could choose to support them…or not. But unequivocally, Labor will not enter into any kind of bargain. None. Nor should any independents expect such a thing.

  7. It remains to be seen, but NXT could in future fill the niche that was occupied fir a while by the Australian Democrats. I think they are likely to prove more resiliant than the PUP, whose mission always looked rather muddled. And of course, unlike Cive, X isn’t a flake. But I agree they need to change their name. Maybe they could join the remains of the Democrats and call themselves something like ‘The New Democrats’, the ‘Progressive Democrats’ or similar.

  9. Of course, ‘Liberal’, ‘Liberal Democrat’ or similar would be a good name for an Australian Centre party had these names not been appropriated by the hard right.

  12. evan parsons @ #891 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 11:25 pm

    Sportsbet now has X favourite in Mayo, and closing fast in Barker, Grey and Boothby.
    Some positive movement odds wise for Labor in the seats of Eden Monaro and Page, and a bit of an improvement in Banks since the last time I looked.

    If the SA Liberals lose these four to NXT and Hindmarsh to Labor, they would be left with just the one seat, Sturt. They would likely have just 3 Senators. In all, they would have just 4 of SA’s 23 federal representatives and be at risk of losing 1-2 more of these at any subsequent election. This would be a catastrophe for Liberalism.

    Maybe this is just what Liberalism needs to force them to dump their Crazy/Nasty/Crony elements. Maybe they are incapable of that and NXT will become the non-Labor voice in SA. That would be very interesting. It may keep the Liberals out of power in Canberra for many years.

  14. The Big Business – Liberal-National-Murdoch campaign against a Labor Government will start the day the next one takes office, hopefully in a few weeks. They will attack Shorten, Plibresek, Albo or anyone else in a leadership position with whatever tools and ammunition they have to hand, regardless of truth, common sense, logic or consistency with past positions, as long as they think it will work. That could be union links, mysogyny or anything else. Fortunately, the power of Murdoch and the wider mainstream media is practically shrinking before our eyes.

  17. norwester @ #915 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 11:59 pm

    Interesting the Libs pulling out of Dobell given the two published seat polls showing it as being very close.

    They know they’re losing this one. The Medicare/Health stuff is a disaster for them. Their whole campaign has disintegrated and they’re left trying to persuade a cynical electorate that they are not full-time liars.

  20. confessions @ #916 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 12:03 am

    Briefly:
    What’s your prediction for the Senate in WA?

    Probably…

    Liberals 4
    Nationals 1
    Labor 4
    Greens 2
    Toss-up for the last spot between Labor, Liberal and an independent, depending on the pref exhaustion rate. I kind of like Labor’s chances for the last. 4.5 quotas would be enough….33.5% of the PV….just about possible…

  22. I was phone-banking tonight in a team that included Louise Pratt, Labor’s #4 Senate candidate. She’s looking like a Senator to me -:)

  24. Interesting that Sportsbet favours Labor more strongly in Page than in Eden-Monaro or Macarthur. Page hardly ever gets mentioned as a likely Labor gain by the media.

  26. cupidstunt @ #921 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 12:10 am

    If Eden Monaro continues as the bellweather since 1972 and betting agencies are right about that seat, then Labor will win.

    Labor ARE going to win. The collapse of the Liberal campaign confirms it. The Lib campaign on Medicare is effectively a Pro-Labor campaign. All the $ the Liberals are spending on name recognition ads is effectively a way informing voters who they should vote against.

  28. Briefly
    I must admit Labor dangled the carrot about Medicare and the Libs bit straightaway,within minutes Turnbull was on the defensive and has been ever since.A couple of weeks ago i mentioned health being one of Labors big guns that they hadnt rolled out and now its come to fruition.You never know they might expose Turnbull on the NBN too especially after the raids.

  29. Cupidstunt – and Shorten said we hadn’t even seen the best yet. Sounds like Labor has a lot more to say over the next two weeks.

  30. cupidstunt @ #928 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 12:20 am

    Briefly
    I must admit Labor dangled the carrot about Medicare and the Libs bit straightaway,within minutes Turnbull was on the defensive and has been ever since.A couple of weeks ago i mentioned health being one of Labors big guns that they hadnt rolled out and now its come to fruition.You never know they might expose Turnbull on the NBN too especially after the raids.

    Along with many others, I’ve been calling voters for many months, on and off. Health – Medicare, hospital waiting times and budgets, the cost of private insurance – has been very high on voters’ minds all along. Labor’s campaign is a response to these signals from voters. It’s an excellent demonstration of Labor’s community-focused campaigning prowess.

    Really, Labor’s campaign is very very good. It has enormous grunt and will only get better after this result.

  31. “Unions bankroll independents” is the Oz headline at the moment.Getting desperate me thinks. Will just lead to more people voting for independents not against them.Havent they learnt yet. The more X gets slated the more votes he gets and the independents will too.

  32. Briefly (11.54pm)
    Its not only the Liberals who are in danger of being decimated in SA. Why was the ALP leaking that internal poll in Adelaide?
    If NXT has anything like the 29% shown in Newspoll, they will come second in and then likely win on preferences, EVERY SEAT in the state. The only thing that can stop that now is if the two majors put out new HTV cards on election day and preference each other. I certainly wouldn’t put it past them. Xenophon has potential to be the Australian version of the Italy’s Five Star Movement at the next election.

  33. cupidstunt @ #931 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 12:28 am

    “Unions bankroll independents” is the Oz headline at the moment.Getting desperate me thinks. Will just lead to more people voting for independents not against them.Havent they learnt yet. The more X gets slated the more votes he gets and the independents will too.

    lol

    too true!!

  36. peter jk @ #932 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 12:30 am

    Briefly (11.54pm)
    Its not only the Liberals who are in danger of being decimated in SA. Why was the ALP leaking that internal poll in Adelaide?
    If NXT has anything like the 29% shown in Newspoll, they will come second in and then likely win on preferences, EVERY SEAT in the state. The only thing that can stop that now is if the two majors put out new HTV cards on election day and preference each other. I certainly wouldn’t put it past them. Xenophon has potential to be the Australian version of the Italy’s Five Star Movement at the next election.

    This is certainly a risk. However, it does seem that the NXT vote is drawn mainly from the Liberals rather than from Labor. We will see. What you suggest should not be discounted without much better info than we have.

  39. Peter Jk Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 12:30 am

    If NXT has anything like the 29% shown in Newspoll, they will come second in and then likely win on preferences, EVERY SEAT in the state.

    Just as the ALP and the Liberals don’t achieve the same PV in every seat, I’m sure NXT’s primary vote will vary from seat to seat. Still, if the polls are correct things are looking pretty good for NXT at this stage.

  40. Tonys speech at the launch.Er,er,erm,er, we erm erm er stopped the er ,er ,er boats,er,er,er carbon er erm tax.er er er. Then just more verbal diarrhoea.

  41. matt mitchell @ #919 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 12:07 am

    Has there been any commentary on the 21.8% primary drop in Wentworth in the Roy Morgan results William linked above?

    The Morgan seat poll sample is too small to carry any weight. However, the earlier Reachtel also indicated a sizeable swing against MT. The fact that both show a big swing suggests that there will be a swing. I hesitate to read much more into it than that and wouldn’t be putting any money on a Bennelong 2007 repeat. A further more substantial seat poll might change that of course.

  42. I’ve had a thought. Say the Coalition retains government, but in a hung Parliament. He intends to hold his gay marriage plebiscite this year, which means legislation would be introduced reasonably soon.
    If there were sufficient support on the cross benches would there be anything to stop the ALP from moving amendments to the legislation to remove the plebiscite and instead legalise gay marriage?

  44. b.c. @ #942 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 12:55 am

    I’ve had a thought. Say the Coalition retains government, but in a hung Parliament. He intends to hold his gay marriage plebiscite this year, which means legislation would be introduced reasonably soon.
    If there were sufficient support on the cross benches would there be anything to stop the ALP from moving amendments to the legislation to remove the plebiscite and instead legalise gay marriage?

    Good question. Are the NXT team (reps and senate candidates) uniformly pro SSM?

  45. Norwester
    Good question. Are the NXT team (reps and senate candidates) uniformly pro SSM?

    Seems like it:

    Marriage is a formalised commitment that should be available to all people who wish it, irrespective of their gender.

    Examples of what needs to be done:

    Remove all discrimination from the Marriage Act to ensure that all people, regardless of their sex or gender identity, have the opportunity to marry
    Churches and religious bodies should retain the right to decide for themselves whether to perform or recognise any marriage

    https://nxt.org.au/whats-nxt/policy-principles/

  48. Another pathetic story in the Oz about a NXT star’s anti-migration link.
    One of Nick Xenophon’s ­candidates unable to explain how Facebook profile came to be listed on anti-immigration group site.Talk about clutching at straws. More votes for X going his way.

  49. It looks like there is a very real likelihood that the numbers will be there in parliament for SSM even if the Libs just hang on. Of course it would mean a few Libs crossing the floor. My takeout is if they aren’t voted out on July 2, they will implode before the end of the year.

  50. He intends to hold his gay marriage plebiscite this year, which means legislation would be introduced reasonably soon.

    Ok, firstly I’m not entirely sure that a plebiscite requires any legislation to be passed. I know Brandis was burbling on about this, but Brandis is a clown and I wouldn’t trust him to know what day of the week it was. The Howard legislation, back in the day, was intended to allow the AEC to conduct plebiscites for pretty much anyone upon request, and I don’t see why the Federal government can’t just ask the AEC to conduct the plebiscite. It may be a budgetary issue given a national plebiscite is a fair chunk of dough that may not fit in the AEC’s regular budget … but the AEC seem to be able to hold General Elections on demand and it all works out so … who knows.

    Secondly, if the numbers exist in a hung parliament then there’s no real need to hijack another bill to do this (except perhaps for the political theatre of it) – the ALP or crossbench can introduce a private members bill at any time provided they give notice for doing so. The wrinkle in the next parliament is that the ALP will still be in its conscience vote period so there may well not be the numbers in the lower house if the Libs ran a unified opposition to this.

    Thirdly, and I may be completely mistaken on this, but I thought there was some general principle (probably convention if it’s a real thing, so who knows how rigid it is or what the exact test or real constraints might be) that amendments to bills have to be broadly in line with the purpose of the original bill, so you can’t just amend a bill that regulates peach imports to turn it into a bill to outlaw karaoke, eg. Whether a bill to enable a plebiscite on SSM is ‘in the ballpark’ of a bill to legislate for SSM … they seem quite different things to me, but I might be completely off the mark on this concept to begin with.

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