The latest weekly ReachTEL campaign poll for the Seven Network has two-party preferred unchanged at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. However, the Coalition is down 1.1% on the primary vote to 42.4% on forced response primary votes, with Labor up 0.2% to the Greens up 1.3% to 10.5%, translating into a 1% shift to Labor if preference flows from the previous election are applied. The failure of this to translate into movement on the headline two-party result is down to a more conventional looking respondent-allocated preference result this week – and perhaps also to the fact that ReachTEL has dropped the Nick Xenophon Team from its list of options outside of South Australia, in recognition of the fact that it won’t be fielding lower house candidates anywhere else (correction – it does have a few candidates here and there). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull records a tick upwards, from 27.4% to 33.5% on the combined very good plus good rating and from 36.3% to 33.3% on poor plus very poor, while Bill Shorten also improves, from 29.6% to 30.7% favourable and 39.7% to 37.8% unfavourable. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is slightly improved, from 57.6-42.4 to 58.4-41.6.
This week’s regular ReachTEL marginal seat campaign poll for Seven is from Cowper, and it provides more evidence of Rob Oakeshott being highly competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker. The primary votes are Nationals 42.2% (53.9% at the 2013 election post-redistribution), Rob Oakeshott 32.1%, Labor 11.1% (23.6% in 2013) and Greens 8.4% (10.9% in 2013). Based on a 72.7-27.3 respondent-allocated preference flow to Oakeshott, this translated into a two-party preferred result of 50-50.
We’ve also got marginal seat polling galore today courtesy of the News Corp tabloids, with Galaxy polling conducted for its Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide papers, and ReachTEL going into the field for The Mercury in every seat in Tasmania. The Galaxy polls produce an average swing to Labor of around 2%, and are thus mostly disappointing for them, but the swing in the ReachTEL poll is closer to 3%, which in the Tasmanian context puts three seats on edge. Starting with the Galaxy polls, which surveyed slightly more than 500 respondents per electorate:
• The Daily Telegraph has polls of six Liberal-held marginals in New South Wales, showing every one going down to the wire, with the Liberals fortuitously poking their nose in front in every case but one. Two-party results are 52-48 in Banks (0.5% swing to Labor) and Reid (2.2% swing to Labor), 51-49 in Dobell (1.4% swing to Liberal), Gilmore (3.0% swing to Labor) and Lindsay (2.0% swing to Labor) and 50-50 in Macarthur (3.3% swing to Labor).
• The Herald Sun’s numbers suggest a status quo result across two Liberal-held and two Labor-held seats. The Liberals lead 53-47 in both Corangamite (0.9% swing to Labor) and Dunkley (2.6% swing to Labor), and Labor leads 52-48 in both Bruce (0.2% swing to Labor) and McEwen (1.8% swing to Labor).
• The Courier-Mail reports Labor leads of 54-46 in Petrie (4.5% swing to Labor) and 51-49 in Capricornia (1.8% swing to Labor), Liberal National Party leads of 52-48 in Brisbane (2.3% swing to Labor) and 53-47 in Longman (3.9% swing to Labor), and a 58-42 lead for Bob Katter in Kennedy (5.8% swing to Katter). Also polled was the Labor-held seat of Griffith, where Labor has reportedly been worried, but the poll records a 53-47 result in favour of Labor Terri Butler, unchanged on Kevin Rudd’s winning margin in the seat at the 2013 election.
• The Advertiser reports results of 50-50 in Hindmarsh (1.9% swing to Labor) and 53-47 to the Liberals in Boothby (4.1% swing to Labor). The Nick Xenophon Team was third in both seats, on 19% in Boothby and 16% in Hindmarsh.
ReachTEL’s Tasmanian polls bring better news for Labor, finding them leading in one of the three Liberal-held marginals and dead level in the other two. Denison and Franklin look set to remain with Andrew Wilkie and Labor’s Julie Collins respectively. The polls were conducted last night and have slightly smaller samples than we’ve been used to seeing from ReachTEL, presumably because Tasmania’s electorates themselves have only about three-quarters of those on the mainland. The results:
Bass (Liberal 4.0%): Nothing in it on two-party preferred, from forced preference primary votes of Liberal 42.6% (47.8% last election, 46.2% last poll) Labor 33.4% (34.6% last election, 36.0% last poll) and Greens 10.4% (7.9% last election, 9.7% last poll). The result on previous election preferences would be 51.2-48.8 in favour of Liberal. Sample: 538.
Braddon (Liberal 2.6%): Another tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Liberal 42.7% (46.9% last election, 46.4% last poll), Labor 37.9% (37.6% last election, 34.4% last poll) and Greens 8.8% (5.2% last election, 6.6% last poll). Labor has the edge on previous election preferences, at 51.0-49.0. Sample: 566.
Denison (Independent 8.9% versus Liberal): Andrew Wilkie has 34.5% of the primary vote (38.1% at the election, 37.3% last poll), the Liberals are second with 29.5% (23.2% last election, 27.3% last poll), Labor is third on 24.5% (24.8% last election, 22.1% last poll) and the Greens are on 8.7% (7.9% last election, 13.3% last poll). ReachTEL has a 63-35 two-candidate result for Wilkie versus the Labor candidate, but the final count would in fact be between Wilkie and the Liberal, not that it would make much difference to the result. Sample: 552.
Franklin (Labor 5.1%): Labor leads 59-41 from primary votes of Labor 37.1% (39.9% last election, 40.7% last poll), Liberal 37.6% (38.7% last election, 34.3 last poll) and Greens 18.3% (12.2% last election, 15.9% last poll). On previous election preferences, the result is 56.7-43.3. Sample: 550.
Lyons (Liberal 1.2%): Labor has a commanding lead of 55-45 in what has generally been reckoned its likeliest Tasmanian gain, from primary votes of Liberal 40.4% (44.4% last election, 45.8% last poll), Labor 35.2% (36.8% last election, 29.2% last poll) and Greens 11.8% (8.3% last election, 13.3% last poll). The result is a fair bit narrower on previous election preferences, at 51.1-48.9. Sample: 540.
Now here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, inclusive of the ReachTEL national result and (for state breakdown purposes) its Tasmanian polls:
She’s soaping his balls.
Bluey should perhaps work out what link in his chain of logic has failed, then.
FFS – 730
turnbull tummy rub in progress
Any news on how Mals foot rub is progressing?
arney in Saigon
#96 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 7:37 pm
CTar1
Wow! Japan much quicker when you catch the ferry to Sth Korea.
Many people who consider themselves progressive on cultural and identity issues have retrograde views, or no coherent views at all, on economic questions. The UK has long been and will long continue to be a multicultural country. It isn’t necessary to be a member of a badly designed supra-national organization to demonstrate one’s cosmopolitan credentials. That would be the act of a masochist. The only way to pressure national and EU elites to abandon economic vandalism is to withdraw consent and cooperation from their rule. The people of the UK did the right thing. In time most progressives will come to see that.
turnbull bloviating full bore
National governments are chiefly responsible for austerity economics, but the bureaucrats who run the European Commission and the European Central Bank are a big part of the group think that hinders fiscal policy in Europe. The EU suffers from a severe deficit of democracy. The European Parliament is very weak compared with the EC and the ECB. The EU’s economic philosophy is austerity / neoliberalism / monetarism all the way down the line. It’s important for people to reject this failed economic theory and pursue a different path. The UK’s decision to withdraw gives succour to others peoples in Europe, and puts massive pressure on elites to either change their policies or lose legitimacy and power.
But… but… Leigh hasn’t accused Malcolm of backstabbing Tony yet.
I’m sure this will come up later.
And she’s learned her lesson fromlast night: MUST.NOT.INTERRUPT.
Than God Leigh has the capacity to improve. I was worried there for a while.
sales giving turnbull free kicks all over the paddock
Hitler’s dinner conversations must have been like this.
Turnbull full of it on 7:30.
gorkay king @ #89 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 7:27 pm
In such seats an anti-incumbent vote could mean three things. Voting informally; voting against the sitting member; voting against the Government. I reckon we will see all three and this will tend to manifest as lower than average swings to Labor in Labor-held seats and higher than average swings to Labor in Lib-held seats, especially in seats with no viable 3rd voice candidates.
One week out and still essentially 50-50, taking recent polls into account. There’s usually a late swing to the Coalition. Projected Labor landslides become comfortable wins (2007), narrow wins become narrow losses (1980, 1998).
I’m expecting:
– The Government to be comfortably returned with a reduced majority (for the tip sheet, say 80-65-5).
– Turnbull to be replaced by a ‘suitable’ right-winger in about a year or so.
– ‘Other’ to hold the balance in the Senate, hopefully able to limit the damage of a second term of the hard-right Abbott-Successor1-Successor2 Government.
Seriously strange:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/afghanistan-vet-claims-persecution-over-topless-video-peptides/news-story/722e9c88766fdd9444b58078699f8c1e
William Bowe
Happy ?
i change but it wont stay change ?
The Liberals will unleash their anti-Shorten attack ads tonight, apparently.
nicholas @ #106 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 7:41 pm
Do you include yourself among the incoherent? Or is this a label applied only to those with whom you disagree?
sales is so blatant. so obvious.
Not fit for purpose.
I gave myself a get out of jail card on Sales’ Turnbull Tummy Rub.
It feels good.
The only issue is whether Turnbull once again makes use of the Dirty Dealer’s repeated assertions that Shorten must by lying about a Greens/Labor Coalition.
Thought I saw Liberal Party logo on Sales notes in the wide shot.
boerwar @ #118 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 7:46 pm
This will drive anti-incumbent sentiment faster than anything I can think of.
Watching Leigh Sales interview Turnbull. If last night’s interview with Bill Shorten was a proper arms length journalistic exercise, this is the equivalent of a high paid hooker’s full service. She is just feeding him lines and he is providing the responses. Apparently it is OK for him to talk about Labor, but not for Shorten to talk about the Government.
I really hope she gets the sack if Labor wins. She is a waste of space and a huge waste of our money.
Sales: may i get that zip for you while im doing this foot rub sir????
She really has plumbed new depths of pathetic deference tonight.
Can’t watch Turnbull interview. Sales should be sacked for egregious contravention of ABC charter. Simple as that.
boerwar @ #121 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 7:48 pm
He talked about a Labor-Greens-Independent coalition and she did not question it – for example raise the issue of deals he would have to make if there was a hung Parliament.
She makes me sick to my stomach.
Was I watching the same interview? I didn’t think Turnbull scored any points there. He did poorly on the SSM questions; the rest was predictable at best, and just plain boring at worst. Don’t think he gained or lost anything appreciable from that.
Well, we can’t accuse Sales of being belligerent all the time, can we?
Fair bit of raw skin on Mal’s tootsies after his visit to 730, rub rub big guy
jenauthor @ #129 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 7:52 pm
Obviously she overdosed on happy pills overnight.
Sales interaction with Turnbull a bit further south than a tummy rub.
a r @ #128 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 7:52 pm
She let him sound totally Prime Ministerial and put him under no pressure whatsoever. He is a gutless and useless PM, like his predecessor, and is damaging to this country in the job.
But if we don’t get a chance to see him fail under pressure the media will sell us another dead duck. And given how highly paid they are, they no doubt are keen to protect their negative gearing deals.
Nicholas
On Brexit we agree. ECB policy since 2008 has been a disaster. That the EU parliament has not straightened out their bankers proves that the system is flawed. The EU parliament is too weak, not too strong, and it is incapable of reigning in the bureaucracy. They will never reform without external pressure.
I disagree with the racists undertones of the Leave campaign, but the EU cannot blame the voters for their resentment. The ECB only has itself to blame. I think the claims of financial ruin are exaggerated. UK has low external debt and a lower pound will help their exports.
Leigh Sales … And Turnbull tonight. Fair enough to give Turnbull a free kick on Brexit.
But the rest was a complete foot rub. The girly giggles responding to malsplaining, the mild faux outrage at the marriage equality referendum.
The laughing along with Mal assuring there will be no Medicare privitasation.
If this is the best the ABC can do in the last major public broadcast interview with the PM before the election, God help democracy.
Shorten has every right to feel completely dudded by the ABC given those two contrasting interviews with the leaders.
The difference in attitude that Sales displayed tonight towards Turnbull, compared to Shorten was quite astounding. Remarkable poor value.
Leigh Sales smiled her way through the interview with Turnbull. The last question about ‘putting your hand on your heart about not privatising any part of Medicare’ was asked with a smile, Malcolm turned in the charm and it was all so jolly.
And then Mal invited Leigh home for dinner in Potts Point with Lucy
sohar @ #98 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 7:38 pm
Go and re-read what KB actually said.
And why bring in Fatso Farr to spew Murdoch bile at the end?
The ABC needs a root and branch clean out of the News Division
Do you not think the watching ABC public can see the difference between Sales’ treatment of Shorten & Turnbull?
I am not sure the ABC will generate any preferences for LNP by such ‘journalism’.
PS: I could not watch it; I need some beauty sleep tonight; and all these comments mean I made a wise choice.
Shorten must have amazing stamina. Campaigning all day and then frightening old people to death all night. Have there been any reported heart attacks.
Malcolm won no votes with that dreary display. He really looks out on his feet.
CTar1
“Turnbull full of it on 7:30.”
.
And 8.30 and 9.30 and 10.30…………..
The 730 report was so shamelessly unbalanced comparing yesterday to today that it provided no genuine look at the comparative merits of the leaders. Shorten was able to display equanimity under fire, while poor Malcolm was left to wander aimlessly, showing that with enough encouragement he still comes to nothing, but with a smile rather than a grimace.
It reflected very poorly on the judgement of Leigh Sales or whoeever else has input into the planning of the interview.
{Stupidly perhaps} I was expecting them to be meticulous about the appearance of testing out both sides equally.
Now that we have had the Independence Day earthquake I am expecting the aliens to arrive any minute.
SPROCKET – Totally agree. The 7.30 report brings on a tabloid hack to talk to a supposedly educated audience. Give me a break. What a farce.
sprocket_ @ #137 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 8:00 pm
…………………………………………………………………….
All that was omitted was…nudge, nudge……wink, wink.
Journey from National Broadcaster to State Broadcaster…mission accomplished.
I haven’t seen the Turnbull interview, but surely Ms Sales should have pointed out that Labor might win outright, in which case any deals with Greens, X’ers and independents are not an issue. Why didn’t she ask him to confirm that he would not negotiate with the crossbench to form a minority government in the event of a hung Parliament. Turnbull has been pushing the lie that the alternative to re-electing his Government is a ‘Labor-Green-Independent Coaltion’. Bullshit!
Is it because Leigh is biased? I suspect she’s acting on instructions. Remember what happened when the ABC broke the story of the Indonesian spying scandal? The tech guy who told the truth about the NBN? The ABC has been thoroughly cowed into submission.
Nine News Sydney
2h2 hours ago
Nine News Sydney @9NewsSyd
#9News Political Editor @LaurieOakes explains the impact #Brexit decision will have on our own
rossmcg @ #138 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 8:02 pm
For a threesome.