State of confusion

Seeking some clarity about the federal election result? Join the club.

At the end of the evening, a surprising election result hangs in the balance, with a remarkably long list of seats still up for grabs. What looked a slightly disappointing result for the Coalition early in the evening kept getting worse as the night progressed, with a number of seats that looked okay for them early on moving Labor’s way late in the night. Anything is possible, but I would now rate a hung parliament of some kind the most likely outcome, and it’s by no means impossible that it won’t be the Coalition forming the minority government.

At the 2013 election, the Coalition won 90 seats, Labor won 55, and others won five: one each for the Greens, Palmer United and Katter’s Australian Party, and two independents. Redistributions then took place in New South Wales, which lost a seat, and Western Australia, which gained one. In New South Wales, the Labor seat of Charlton in the Hunter region was abolished, but in the resulting reorganisation, Charlton’s neighbour Paterson went from Liberal to notional to Labor, as did Dobell on the Central Coast and Barton in southern Sydney. The three notionally Labor seats are now actual Labor seats, bringing the Coalition down to 87. In Western Australia, the new seat of Burt had a notional Liberal margin of 6.0%, but Labor blew the hinges off that with a 14% swing. Now let’s take a Coalition-centric look at what happened state by state.

In New South Wales, the Coalition has lost Eden-Monaro, Macarthur, Macquarie and Lindsay, and are going down to the wire in Gilmore. That brings them down to 83, with one on the endangered list.

In Victoria, there is little or nothing in it in Labor-held Chisholm and Liberal-held Dunkley. So that brings the endangered list up to two, but also brings one on to what I will call the opportunity list (which won’t be getting any longer).

In Queensland, Labor has won Longman and, following a late-evening turnaround, Flynn. Capricornia and Herbert look better for Labor than the Coalition, but I’ll nonetheless assign them to the endangered list, along with the genuinely lineball Forde, and Dickson where Peter Dutton will probably but not definitely make it over the line. Not surprisingly, Fairfax, which Clive Palmer won in 2013, goes back to the LNP. That brings them to 82, and intensifies the headache in trying to assess the situation by making it six on the endangered list.

In Western Australia, besides the previously noted Burt, Cowan could go either way. Now we have seven on the endangered list.

In South Australia, Mayo has gone to the Nick Xenophon Team as expected, bringing the best case scenario for the Coalition down to 81. Furthermore, the endangered list gets still longer with Hindmarsh lineball; Grey looking to me like a show for the NXT, with their candidate second and the Liberal member on an unconvincing primary vote of 41.6%; Boothby a less likely but still possible gain for NXT, if their candidate overtakes Labor by doing 4.6% better than him when the 13.4% Greens-plus-others vote is split three ways on preferences. Now our endangered list blows out to ten.

Tasmania at least is neat and tidy, with a surprisingly poor result for the Liberals costing them all of the three seats they gained in 2013, with Bass going on a second consecutive double-digit swing. And Labor won the Darwin seat of Solomon in a result that bodes ill for the Country Liberal Party government at their election in late August.

That brings the Coalition down to 77, which they can hope to push up to 78 if they win Chisholm. But then there’s that intimidatingly long endangered list of ten, and while they can hope to rely on the traditional tendency of postal votes to favour them, they would need to be very lucky to make it to a majority.

As for the cross bench, Andrew Wilkie, Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter were easily re-elected; Adam Bandt retains Melbourne for the Greens, and the NXT wins Mayo; and both NXT and the Greens could gain an extra two seats each with a bit of luck (quite a lot of luck actually, in the Greens’ case).

Ultimately, the spread of possibilities for the Coalition ranges from 69 to 78, while Labor’s is only slightly weaker at 63 to 75. If Labor falls below 65, it will do so by losing seats to the Greens, who would assuredly favour them to form government.

Now for the Senate.

In New South Wales, the Coalition wins five, Labor four, the Greens one and One Nation one, with the last seat up in the air. Based on my somewhat speculative preference model, Labor gets enough preferences for their fifth candidate to compete with the Liberal Democrats for that seat, but that may be overrating the Liberal Democrats preference flow based on their strong performance from top position on the ballot paper last time. The other possibility is that it goes to the Christian Democratic Party.

In Victoria, the Coalition and Labor get to four; the Greens should make it to two; and Derryn Hinch has won a seat. The last seat is anyone’s guess, but I’m inclined to think it will be a fifth seat for the Coalition.

In Queensland, there should be five Coalition, four Labor, one Greens and Pauline Hanson, and another tough call for the last spot. The Liberal Democrats are a surprisingly good show, but I wouldn’t rule out Family First.

In South Australia, four Liberal, four Labor, three NXT, one Greens. Surprisingly, Bob Day of Family First doesn’t look like he’ll make it.

Western Australia I expect will be five Liberal, one Nationals, four Labor, two Greens. In Tasmania, five Labor, four Liberal, two Greens and Jacqui Lambie.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 comments on “State of confusion”

Comments Page 29 of 31
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  2. Happy to report that my excellence as a HTV hander outerer in my Liberal booth in a safe Labor seat resulted in a swing to the good of over twice the electorate level swing.

    I’m claiming the difference 😉

  4. Tingle –

    The implications of the debacle that unfolded on Saturday night go well beyond the fortunes of our political leaders to directly affect the rest of us in a very real way.

    As things currently stand, the 2016 budget may never be passed, let alone the “zombie” measures of the 2014 budget.

    Malcolm Turnbull does not appear to have the numbers to be able to get industrial relations legislation through a joint sitting of the parliament given a big Senate crossbench.

    The few small nods to budgetary reform by the Turnbull government – notably the tax treatment of superannuation – may be hijacked by the Coalition itself.

    ….the $50 billion company tax cut – must be under threat.

    But there is nothing else to replace it in terms of an economic strategy.

    ……the Trans-Pacific Partnership….must also be considered under threat

    ……we face a period of possibly months of dangerous policy drift

    …..Turnbull’s authority – within his own party, within the House of Representatives and with the Senate – is now shattered.

    ….he has a chance of forming a wafer thin majority government…..

    …..the prospect of a joint sitting now is out the window……

    …….By bringing Labor back so close to government, Shorten becomes a Labor champion.

    Assessments of him both inside and outside Labor will be forced to change….

    ….He will command a new respect as a political warrior and strategist.

    …….The Coalition said it was promising stability and economic growth, but its hollow “plan” did not persuade voters suffering economic uncertainty.

    The internal divisions within the Coalition mean the significance of how this result has come about might be lost.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/election-2016-a-policy-path-not-just-politics-now-adrift-20160703-gpxgpv#ixzz4DLZoNGgY

  5. SO
    So they shouldn’t have called them. Or they should have stuck by their predictions which they have lost confidence in. You can’t uncall seats.

  7. BB, wasn’t it you who also nearly ran over maxine mckew/bob hogg, twice ?
    I’m starting to see a pattern here.

    you are correct. In Maxine’s case, it was twice. Once on Military Rd., Neutral Bay and the other on Bradley’s Head Rd., Mosman.

    The fact that Her Indoors keeps her feet up, braced on the dashboard most of the time when I’m at the wheel has nothing to do with my driving skills, she assures me.

  8. mark basham @ #1399 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 10:17 pm

    Has anyone got an update on prefs in Hindmarsh? How is Steve looking?

    All that appears to have happened today is the adding of the Special Hospital Booths 1-3 from which Georganas gained 52 votes 2PP. Nothing else will happen until Tuesday. I think he has a very good chance of just hanging on to the seat but it is going to be very, very tight.

  9. TBH I don’t think the collected media will ever learn that polls of around 50/50 indicate a close election and precisely nothing else. Headline chasers the lot of them.

  10. [Has anyone got an update on prefs in Hindmarsh? How is Steve looking?]
    His lead seems to be tracking above or below around 400. Steve has good name recognition in the area so I am hopeful he will do OK on postals.

  11. The faux outrage of Brandis and later Turnbull last night was a sight to behold.

    I don’t think there was anything faux about it. The masters of the big lie were genuinely outraged that they had been hoisted by their own petard.

  12. Malware’s biggest problem with no effective majority is the temptation for LNP rogues to go Indie, cross the floor etc. Seems to happen regularly that one or 2 opportunists appear when their vote can make the difference and they want their time in the sun, want to pursue some grievance etc. If he could hold LNP together then it might be possible to run a minority/bare majority show but I suspect rats in the ranks would appear.

  13. Autocrat
    Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 10:23 pm
    TBH I don’t think the collected media will ever learn that polls of around 50/50 indicate a close election and precisely nothing else. Headline chasers the lot of them.

    We were told the LNP were running the mother of all sandbagging campaigns in the marginal seats. What happened? Did somebody forget to quality control the sandbags they deployed? Or is it that the young libs didn’t like the physical work of stacking the sandbags?

  14. …

    Bolt hasnt held back on Sky

    Bridget O’Flynn
    16m16 minutes ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Bolt: I think Bishop is over. She should be replaced and I think there are some MPs with a notion to put that to the test.

    #AusDecides2016

    Bridget O’Flynn
    19m19 minutes ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Bolt: We were briefed by ppl in Liberal Party that “don’t worry we’re winning in the marginal seats”. They were lying to us

    #AusDecides2016

  16. Darren

    Turnbull being in Point Piper on the night was just a media disaster — Million Dollar Mansion man writ large — why wasn’t he at Kirribilli House or even at the Wentworth Hotel in a suite somewhere waiting? Made him look very out of touch.

    There may be reasons why Turnbull went home. His wife has been looking a bit ‘where am I and why’ during the campaign.

  18. And

    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Bolt: I think Turnbull’s finished. I don’t think he should be sacked but should resign so it looks orderly.

    #AusDecides2016

  19. [Why is there no counting tomorrow?]
    Securing of ballots and exchange of declaration votes for people who voted out of their home electorate.

  21. I guess they also thought Brexit was a game changer, and voters would swing back to the government, if they were any good this probably would have been the case.

  22. wakefield @ #1412 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 10:28 pm

    Malware’s biggest problem with no effective majority is the temptation for LNP rogues to go Indie, cross the floor etc. Seems to happen regularly that one or 2 opportunists appear when their vote can make the difference and they want their time in the sun, want to pursue some grievance etc. If he could hold LNP together then it might be possible to run a minority/bare majority show but I suspect rats in the ranks would appear.

    ………………………………………..

    Hopefully turnbull will form the next government – a weak one which will disgrace itself from within and without.

    Labor have turnbull everytime a GP charges a dollar more.

    Pretty please – bring abbott back….

  24. When Turnbull gave his “victory” speech in the early hours of the morning he reminded me of a dog that had just been spayed.

  25. For all the talk last week of an easy TCT win, I was struck on Thursday and Friday when Turnbull hit the airwaves in rural and regional Australia.

    It seems to be there was only one reason why he would do those interviews: there was trouble in those places.

    There was trouble everywhere it seems

  26. I have to say I agree with the negative comments re the ABC. Fo the first time EVER I switched to 9. The graphics were better, the commentary mostly more intelligent and the forcasting better.

    I do not think Antony Green has a much say in the presentation as he once did and it shows. i am not even using the ABC qick seat summary, because frankly the graphics are awful and it is just as easy to go straight to the AEC.

    It is sad to see such a decline in ABC standards.

  27. I wonder, given the possibility of a Liberal defection, if Labor and the Indies could manage to get a gay marriage bill up before the plebiscite?

  28. Dio

    Why is there no counting tomorrow?

    It’s a day for packing up absentee votes with validated numbers of each that have to be moved to there home seat and Monday to receive and validate then count on Tuesday when they are in place.

  29. DTT I had exactly the same experience. I found the ABC “personalities” sickening and I tuned in enough to catch Anthony Green and at other times tuned out.

  31. Cud Chewer
    Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 10:37 pm
    I wonder, given the possibility of a Liberal defection, if Labor and the Indies could manage to get a gay marriage bill up before the plebiscite?

    The ALP has been driving govt policy for at least the past year…so I dont see why not.

  32. DTT and CC

    Also watched Nine. Highlight was Amanda Vanstone contributing nothing of worth to the discussion and Peter Costello’s early call on a TCT majority.

    Laurie Oakes added the required knowledge to match the silliness

  36. Wrong assumption about Senator Sam. He is not Moslem.

    Senator Dastyari’s parents were members of the persecuted minority Zoroastrian sect, iirc. Which is why they were granted asylum in Australia.

  38. [Has Peter Hartcher, in his pin striped stentoriousness, opined as to who the victor must be.
    We await.]
    Yes there is a new article by him on SMH.COM. It is complete drivel.
    He doesn’t seem to realise that a lot of people either voted Labor or preferenced Labor because they don’t want the parliament to pass Liberal / Coalition policies.

  39. sohar @ #1434 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 10:42 pm

    A week or two before the election polls were released showing Labor 8 to 10 percentage points ahead in marginal seats around Sydney. William dismissed them as only union polls. They ended up being correct. Perhaps William (and I think Kevin) would be better advised to not put so much faith in the MSM and the Liberal Party in future.
    https://twitter.com/FightingTories/status/749582038122893312

    Here! Here!

    And might I just add that Reachtel for Channel 7 polls can be treated with casual disdain.

  41. Jenauthor
    Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 10:42 pm
    Apologies if this has already been posted:

    Thanks for that…a good article I have bookmarked it

  42. albert twoman @ #1400 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 10:17 pm

    showson @ #1392 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 10:11 pm

    Turnbull’s position will be weaker than Gillard’s because the Senate is going to be an absolute rabble. If Gillard did a deal with the Greens to get Bandt’s vote in the House then it normally meant she could pass the same bill through the Senate just with the support of the Greens, e.g. the Clean Energy Act went through this way.

    A minority LNP government trying to not only get things through the senate but also through a HoR they do not control is going to be close to impossible. They are going to be completely frustrated. A minority Labor government would also face serious challenges as well.

    This presupposes the LNP have a legislative program. Of course, they have no such thing. Lassitude is their tipple. They couldn’t care less.

  43. C@Tmomma – I dunno – some of the ReachTel seat polls were pretty spot on – they found that Macarthur was moving to Labor, Labor was failing to pick-up Corangamite, that Labor could lose Chisholm, and that NXT was in with a shot in Grey. And those are just the ones I can remember.

  44. Let me get this right. If the Libs get 73 and none of the cross bench want speaker, then the Libs will need to find four of the cross bench to vote with them?

    Who would that four be?

  45. Rossmore,

    St. Trinians was actually funny. Watching ABC journos clearly barracking for the Liberals and then giggling was revolting.

  47. A week or two before the election polls were released showing Labor 8 to 10 percentage points ahead in marginal seats around Sydney. William dismissed them as only union polls. They ended up being correct. Perhaps William (and I think Kevin) would be better advised to not put so much faith in the MSM and the Liberal Party in future.
    https://twitter.com/FightingTories/status/749582038122893312

    The comment you are referring to is here, and it doesn’t say what you say it does.

  48. OK

    The AEC is calling Grey for NXT and emphatically so. Either they have make a mistake of the prefences are soing solidly (actually more than solidly about 94% to Xenophon.

    Remember that they do tally the TPP at each booth on the night so they would have indicative figures.

  49. Ratsak:

    Happy to report that my excellence as a HTV hander outerer in my Liberal booth in a safe Labor seat resulted in a swing to the good of over twice the electorate level swing.

    I’m claiming the difference

    Congratulations!

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