Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A new poll suggests Bill Shorten did a lot better out of the election campaign than Malcolm Turnbull, and finds a mixed response to the new Senate electoral system.

The latest result from the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 39%, but with Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred unchanged. Labor and the Greens are both unchanged, at 36% and 10% respectively. There are some interesting findings in the supplementary questions:

• Malcolm Turnbull is rated by 30% as best to lead the Liberal Party, down nine since March, with Julie Bishop up four to 16% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%.

• Conversely, Bill Shorten has done very well out of the election campaign, with 27% rating him best to lead Labor, up 12% since March, while Tanya Plibersek is down two to 12%, Anthony Albanese is down three to 11%, and Chris Bowen is down to 3%.

• Thirty-seven per cent say the found Senate voting more difficult under the new system compared with 19% for easier; 20% found the outcome more democratic, 15% less democratic, and 39% that it made no difference.

• The current state of the Australian economy is rated by 30% as good, 26% as poor and 41% as neither; 33% as heading in the right direction and 35% in the wrong direction; 27% as likely to improve over the next 12 months, versus 41% for worse.

• Fifty-five per cent said they would support a national ban on greyhound racing, versus 27% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,599 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Guytaur and Millenial and others
    The real issues for Clinton are:
    1. to what extent will the young activists swing Green ie vote and work for Jill Stein
    2. To what extent will the angry white male Sanders voters (i guess we might call them our middle aged unionists) vote Trump.

    Now as to No 2 I suspect that in a week William or Kevin or others WILL be able to give us a very good idea.

    Take a look at One Nation voters who preference LABOR. That will give you a % for the angry white unionist vote in Australia actually the vote in Herbert might be a pretty good proxy. These sorts of voters will be the sanders voters who switch to trump.

  2. This is from commentary at fivethirtyeight on protests at the Democratic Convention:

    The turnout in Philadelphia so far is somewhat surprising to me. Cleveland was notable for the lack of protests and arrests. The protests in Philly cover a range of issues, not just support for Sanders over Hillary Clinton. Perhaps progressive protesters faced with a choice — rail against a GOP nominee who seems to appeal to authoritarian impulses or an insider-driven DNC — chose the latter.

    It seems obvious to me. Protest at the Repug convention only reinforces the mentality of Republicans who despise anything and anyone left of them. Protests at the Democrat convention may actually influence a more leftish leaning approach.

  4. Some good news.

    samesame: Apple signs up to support Australia’s @AMEquality #marriageequality campaign: samesame.com.au/news/14009/App… pic.twitter.com/u5Fh4Cg1ze

  5. tpof @ #2439 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 10:10 am

    Nicole @ 10.06

    Just because someone likes to bark a lot, does not mean they won’t bite. Just because someone lies all the time does not mean they won’t do any of the things they threaten they will do. It just means there is even more cause for concern because they are so unpredictable. He displays a lack of ethics, a lack of empathy and a lack of common sense.

    I agree. That is what I was getting at when I made my analogy with Hitler yesterday. Not because their policies are the same, etc.
    But the rise of Hitler and his Nazi party should stand forever as a warning that when someone says they will do something terrible when they get into power, don’t ever assume it is just bluster.

    Yes, I am on the same page as you on this.

  6. Nicole, one thing that perhaps hasn’t become as clear as it should be in the sexual abuse Royal Commission is the frequency with which Aboriginal kids have actually been victims. Many have actually given evidence to the commission. I’ve also worked with Aboriginal adults in Queensland, the NT and Victoria who, over many years, have told me of appalling experiences as children in institutions of one kind or another, ranging from missions and government run communities through to correctional facilities.

    On a population percentage basis, Aboriginal kids suffered more than any other group from the actions the Sexual Abuse Royal Commission is investigating. There is “overlap” between the two problems, but correction system abuse and sexual abuse are certainly each worthy of inquiries in their own right.

  7. guytaur @ #2427 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 9:50 am

    The RC into the NT abuse will have to address detention as a solution for law and order instead of addressing why these problems happen.

    Not necessarily.
    It all comes down to the terms of reference.
    If the terms of reference don’t include this they won’t look into it.

    As for Turbull and Dodson on AM.
    Turbull was all waffle. At the end of the interview all he had said was, ‘We will set up a Royal Commision.’
    Dodson spoke to the issues and made the very important point that it needed to be bipartisan. Turnbull never once mentioned consulting Labor or Shorten.

  8. BIS

    I know the LNP will be scared of a Costigan style out of control RC. However I think this is going to be beyond their control.

    To address the issues raised in the 4C report you have to look into alternatives to detention. That brings up detention is not the solution to problems straight away.
    This applies even if they did and I think unlikely to limit to just the one NT detention centre.

  9. Worth noting it would only take the cross bench and one decent-minded Liberal to force the Gov to hold a wide ranging inquiry into the Indigenous incarceration issues.

  10. victoria @ #2447 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 10:18 am

    nicole
    Agree with your observations.
    I would add that Trump is simply a sociopath

    I agree and yet I wonder at times whether he might just be a psychopath. I don’t really want to be finding out the answer to that question should he be elected as the next president of the USA. A well functioning sociopath is bad enough.

  11. Lizzie at 9.42 am

    The link to the article written in 2015 on the degradations of youth detention in the NT demonstrates the systemic silence/inaction/connivance by those in authority (both public servants and politicians). The RC must deal with that failure of proper process. It is inevitable that entrenched racism is a root cause.

    It follows any person in authority at relevant times of knowledge/imputed knowledge (NT Chief Minister, Cwth Minister for Indig. Affairs, etc) must be required to explain to the RC what they did with what they knew and/or why they did not know what they ought to have known. They should all be suspended from office pending the outcome of the RC. First, because the systemic failure requires those in positions of responsibility to take responsibility. Secondly, their own actions/inactions should form part of the RC enquiry. Therefore, thirdly they may thus spend the time they will need to examine their positions in order to give full and proper evidence i.e. not a whole lot of “I can’t remembers” as was seen on 4C last night with Minister Elferink.

  12. guytaur @ #2458 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 10:34 am

    BIS
    I know the LNP will be scared of a Costigan style out of control RC. However I think this is going to be beyond their control.
    To address the issues raised in the 4C report you have to look into alternatives to detention. That brings up detention is not the solution to problems straight away.
    This applies even if they did and I think unlikely to limit to just the one NT detention centre.

    That’s why it needs to be bipartisan.
    Otherwise elements in the LNP and CLP could weaken its powers for political reasons especially in light of the upcoming NT elections.

  13. BIS

    I don’t think a partisan RC will happen. Does the Senate get a say in legislation?

    The RC will have to be seen to be independent. Weak terms of reference will not be acceptable. In that its like the black deaths in custody RC

  14. [Take a look at One Nation voters who preference LABOR. That will give you a % for the angry white unionist vote in Australia actually the vote in Herbert might be a pretty good proxy. These sorts of voters will be the sanders voters who switch to trump.]
    Not sure that is a good example. The One Nation voters who preference Labor seem more of a proxy for Sanders voters who will not switch to the other side. They might be unhappy with their traditional party but in the end are unwilling to support the other side.

  16. Graceful to the end

    Rob_Stott: Mirabella quits politics to focus on commentary, blames unions, activists & “Melbourne-based feminists” for her loss theage.com.au/federal-politi…

  18. Kev

    Not so sure on that, because voting in the USA is much less clearly defined. It was I think pretty clear to the working class unionist One nation voters that Shorten is better than Turnbull on issues of job security and even on a personal level he is perceived as the worker’s friend. I am less sure that this sentiment will translate to Clinton. it would have for Bill but I am less sure about Hillary.

    I think maybe we need to wait until after BILL gives his address to the convention before making predictions. he may well be able to win the base including the Sanders base back to Hillary.

  19. rod hagen @ #2456 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 10:30 am

    Nicole, one thing that perhaps hasn’t become as clear as it should be in the sexual abuse Royal Commission is the frequency with which Aboriginal kids have actually been victims. Many have actually given evidence to the commission. I’ve also worked with Aboriginal adults in Queensland, the NT and Victoria who, over many years, have told me of appalling experiences as children in institutions of one kind or another, ranging from missions and government run communities through to correctional facilities.
    On a population percentage basis, Aboriginal kids suffered more than any other group from the actions the Sexual Abuse Royal Commission is investigating. There is “overlap” between the two problems, but correction system abuse and sexual abuse are certainly each worthy of inquiries in their own right.

    Yes, you are right on the buzzer there. I am convinced. They most certainly are.

  20. guytaur @ #2466 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 10:48 am

    Graceful to the end
    Rob_Stott: Mirabella quits politics to focus on commentary, blames unions, activists & “Melbourne-based feminists” for her loss theage.com.au/federal-politi…

    Not her own odious personality and opinions.
    Another commentator that can only see one side of the picture. Yeh!!!

  22. I should add, to my last post, I’m not talking about the allegations of sexual abuse in some Aboriginal communities today. I’m talking about predation by officials, teachers, mission staff and others in positions of power in the communities concerned.

  23. Rob_Stott: Mirabella quits politics to focus on commentary, blames unions, activists & “Melbourne-based feminists” for her loss theage.com.au/federal-politi…

    Yes, let’s outlaw Unions, shall we?

    While we’re at it we can have proscription orders that bans anyone who comes from Melbourne and identifies as a feminist from setting foot in the Indi electorate whilst Sophie Execrebella is trying to worm her way into parliament, again and again until the electorate gets it Right!

    Because Sophie Mirabella isn’t getting elected because her electorate don’t want to touch her with a barge pole, or because the many examples of the contempt she has for certain issues in politics becomes known, or because of her despicable behaviour towards Labor politicians, or the largesse she advantages herself with at taxpayers’ expense when she is elected. No, it’s none of the above. It’s because of hairy-legged feminist unionists from Melbourne! Sheesh!

  25. And speaking of unions

    TWO more cases have been added to the growing pile of failed legal actions initiated by the Trade Union Royal Commission Police.

    CFMEU official Chad Bragdon has been found Not Guilty of intimidating or obstructing a Commonwealth official. As well, last Wednesday, CFMEU official Mark O’Brien was found to have no case to answer in relation to obstructing a Commonwealth Official.

  27. Cat

    Jeez those hairy legged feminists from Melbourne must have been busy. One minute they are out working against Sophie and the next they are destroying labor in the inner city.

    Super women!!!!!

  28. I think that there are a lot in the ‘angry white’ demographic who would like something like an Australia with a conservative Labor Government c. 1959, including protectionism, zero unemployment, worker- and union-friendly, no greenies or hippies, the White Australia policy, but without post war immigration (except maybe from Britain and Ireland). These would be the One Nation voters preferencing Labor.

  29. New Essential up.

    Labor – 52% (+1)
    Coalition 48% (-1)

    Primaries are +1 for Labor and ‘others’, flat elsewhere.

    Questions on issues of importance, govt priorities coming up with exactly what Labr would want it to. Health, medicare, education.

    Some questions on International Relations giving the obvious answers. US, CHina, UK good. Hilary ok. Russia bad, Donald Trump bad.

    What’s the bet the Coalition shuts up about a by election in Herbert.

  33. scott bales @ #2480 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 11:15 am

    Oh, and link
    http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Essential-Report_160726.pdf

    scott bales @ #2479 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 11:14 am

    New Essential up.
    Labor – 52% (+1)
    Coalition 48% (-1)
    Primaries are +1 for Labor and ‘others’, flat elsewhere.
    Questions on issues of importance, govt priorities coming up with exactly what Labr would want it to. Health, medicare, education.
    Some questions on International Relations giving the obvious answers. US, CHina, UK good. Hilary ok. Russia bad, Donald Trump bad.
    What’s the bet the Coalition shuts up about a by election in Herbert.

    I’m guessing most of the increases were more significant from last week than this week but it’s reflected in this one because the rounding-up has ticked over eventually.

    I don’t know why Essential is still comparing against the 2013 election though. Perhaps not yet enough data for comparison.

  34. [quote]Graceful to the end

    Rob_Stott: Mirabella quits politics to focus on commentary, blames unions, activists & “Melbourne-based feminists” for her loss theage.com.au/federal-politi…
    [/quote]
    We all know it is BK’s fault. Should he resign !!!

  35. rod hagen @ #2472 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 10:59 am

    I should add, to my last post, I’m not talking about the allegations of sexual abuse in some Aboriginal communities today. I’m talking about predation by officials, teachers, mission staff and others in positions of power in the communities concerned.

    I got what you were saying. Institutional abuse on both counts.

  36. Daretotread
    Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 10:25 am
    One Nation historically preferences against sitting members so taking the preference flow to the ALP in Herbert as an indicator is not terribly reliable. I’m not saying it is wrong – One Nation draws support from both major parties.

  43. “I don’t know why Essential is still comparing against the 2013 election though. Perhaps not yet enough data for comparison.”

    I think they would have to wait for the full final preference distributions (rather than the “notional” ones we’ve mostly being seeing from the AEC so far) to use the 2016 figures as a comparison, Raaraa. These can take quite a while to come in.

  44. Tanya Plibersek:
    54 mins ago posted on FB
    All Australians would be sickened by video footage of shocking abuse of children in the Northern Territory juvenile detention system, revealed on the ABC’s Four Corners program last night.
    The violent attacks on children by guards, the use of tear gas, extended periods of solitary confinement, and the use of extreme restraining devices is completely appalling.
    It is beyond belief that this could have occurred in a country like Australia. The perpetrators should immediately face the full force of the law. And this abhorrent conduct should never, ever be allowed to happen again.
    Federal Labor supports the Government’s announcement this morning of a Royal Commission.
    It is now evident that the abuse of young prisoners at the Don Dale Juvenile Detention Centre in Darwin in 2014 was not an isolated incident, but that systemic problems are spread far more widely throughout the Territory’s prison system. A far-ranging inquiry is clearly now necessary.
    Federal Labor will cooperate fully with the Government to establish a Royal Commission as soon as possible. We stand ready to work with the Government on the Terms of Reference of the Commission, which should not be limited to the incidents at Don Dale but should include systemic issues in the juvenile justice system.
    As a matter of urgency, the Northern Territory Government must provide assurances that serious action has been taken to ensure the practices documented by Four Corners are no longer occurring anywhere in the Territory, and that the children shown in last night’s episode are no longer in danger.
    There has been a gross dereliction of duty of care, and a disturbing failure of previous inquiries to make change. Permanent reform is necessary to ensure such abuse never happens again.
    Last night’s program also reminded us of the shameful state of Indigenous incarceration in Australia – particularly for Indigenous youth. This must become an urgent matter for the Council of Australian Governments – as Labor has previously called for.
    Labor also calls on the Turnbull Government to reconsider its rejection of national targets to reduce Indigenous incarceration and improve community safety under the Closing the Gap framework.

  45. Also see Bernard’s analysis article (paywalled)

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/07/26/medicare-not-the-economy-influenced-2016-vote/

    Jul 26, 2016
    Essential: Health trumped the economy, Trump scares voters
    Unusually, voters were thinking more about health and Medicare than the economy on July 2, this week’s Essential Report shows.
    Bernard Keane — Politics Editor

    Health was the most important issue for voters in the recent federal election, usurping economic management as the topic front of mind as Australians entered the polling booth on July 2, this week’s Essential Report shows.

    Sixty per cent of voters nominated health policies and 58% nominated Medicare as “very important”, compared to 53% who nominated economic management. Economic management, traditionally a strength for conservative parties, is usually the most important issue for voters in determining how they will vote, illustrating how successful Labor’s Medicare scare campaign was. It may illustrate how successful Labor was at neutralising economic management as an issue, so voters felt free to focus on other issues. Education was nominated as very important by 43% of voters, behind “better for me and my family” on 53%.

  46. steve777 @ #2478 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 11:13 am

    I think that there are a lot in the ‘angry white’ demographic who would like something like an Australia with a conservative Labor Government c. 1959, including protectionism, zero unemployment, worker- and union-friendly, no greenies or hippies, the White Australia policy, but without post war immigration (except maybe from Britain and Ireland). These would be the One Nation voters preferencing Labor.

    There may be one or two such escapists lost in their twi-lit reveries. But I have yet to meet them.

    Most Australians would have no recall of the White Australia policy. Very few have any recollection of Protection All Round. I think you’d be very hard pressed to find even one voter in the entire country who would think immigrants should be sourced only from the UK and Ireland.

    Mostly, ON voters believe politics is futile. Their reflexes are anti-political. They want to use their votes to slap the other parties. Supporting the anti-hero is a way to do that.

  47. Do I have to add a tag after the to add a space between paragraphs? Sorry about that last post from Tanya being so hard to read.

  48. 1057darwin: (we released the footage) for justice for him. Nobody knows what he’s dealt with in there – Dylan Voller’s sister Kira

  49. Compact and others

    Oddly enough Turnbull is safer with a narrow margin.

    Should he be removed then it is probable that he would quit politics or at least the Liberals. He could then sit happily on the cross bench facing an LNP with just 75 minus speaker. He would be happy as a pig in muck. The new Liberal PM would not be able to get any of its agenda through the house without the support of one of the independents. This would mean effectively Katter.

  50. opps, my html tags disappeared. I was asking if I had to add a break tag after ending paragraph to get spacing between paragraphs.

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