This week’s Essential Research finds the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 37%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 4%, with two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. The poll also finds 53% favouring a vote by parliament on same-sex marriage in the event that the Senate blocks a plebiscite, with only 29% opposed. Support for the proposed plebiscite question, “should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?”, is at 60% with 30% opposed, compared with results of 57% and 28% when the same question was posed a month ago. Only 22% of respondents supported the goverment’s plan for $7.5 million of advertising to be provided for both sides of the argument, with 68% opposed. When asked about the biggest threats to job security in Australia, 31% nominated “free trade deals that allow foreign workers into the Australian market”, 23% companies using labour hire and contracting out, 18% the impact of technological change, and high wages in last place on 11%.
In other news, I mean to start shaking myself out of a spell of post-election laziness, so I’ll have BludgerTrack back in one form or another next week. In the meantime, I have the following to relate:
• The Australian reports that factional arrangements ensure that Stephen Conroy’s own sub-faction of the Victorian Right will decide his successor when he vacates his Senate seat on September 30. That seems to bode well for his ally Mehmet Tillem, who previously served in the Senate from late 2013 until mid-2014, when he served out David Feeney’s term after he moved to the lower house seat of Batman at the September 2013 election. However, some in the party are said to be arguing that the position should go to a woman, specifically to Stefanie Perri, the former Monash mayor who ran unsuccessfully in Chisholm at the recent election.
• A draft redistribution proposal has been published for the Northern Territory’s two electorates, in which early 3000 voters are to be transferred from growing Solomon (covering Darwin and Palmerston) to stagnant Lingiari (covering the remainder of the territory). The transfer encompasses Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli at the eastern edge of Palmerston, together with the Litchfield Shire areas around Knuckey Lagoon immediately east of Darwin. This is a conservative area, so the change would strengthen Labor in Solomon and weaken them in Lingiari.
• A redistribution for the five electorates in Tasmania is in its earliest stages, with a period for preliminary public suggestions to run from November 2 to December 5.
• The Liberal National Party announced last week it would not challenge its 37 vote defeat in the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, despite complaints from Senator Ian Macdonald that the Australian Eleectoral Commission had promised hospital patients it would take their votes on polling day without delivering, and that students outside the electorate were denied absent votes because the required envelopes were not available. The 40-day deadline for lodgement of a challenge closed on Saturday.
‘Adrian, knowing how much these ABC radio jocks earn helps me justify being mean.’
All the more incentive for them to maintain the company line.
So Lab and Lib equal on primary votes.
And after it’s been such a wonderful week for Mal the Magnificent.
I wonder how his overseas trips actually play in the electorate, beyond the press gallery bubble.
On this poll also see…
https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/09/20/essential-if-plebiscite-is-blocked-voters-want-parliament-to-sort-it/
Sep 20, 2016
Essential: if plebiscite is blocked, voters want Parliament to pass marriage equality
If Parliament rejects the government’s same-sex marriage plebiscite bill, voters want MPs to get on with voting for it, Essential Report shows.
Bernard Keane — Politics Editor
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/20/marriage-equality-poll-finds-majority-support-for-a-free-vote-if-plebiscite-blocked
Marriage equality poll finds majority support for a free vote if plebiscite blocked
Bill Shorten shuts down Coalition suggestions of Labor compromising to pass the plebiscite bill
Paul Karp @Paul_Karp
Tuesday 20 September 2016 13.41 AEST
End welfare dependency. Create jobs.
Fizza keeps diminishing.
‘Fizza keeps diminishing.’
Except in the eyes of the CPG, and clearly they don’t count.
CPG are become more and more disconnected and ignored by the public more than ever I reckon.
The press gallery is so out of touch they spend half hour of questions in NPC without one asking what jobs do you expect people to be helped into?
Whacko! Labor have been rewarded, and the Coalition penalised, for the ALP governing from Opposition. : )
I am surprised Jennifer Yang has not been mentioned.
She was number 5 on the ALP Senate ticket and also a former mayor.
I was not close to the Chisholm campaign and have refrained from commenting on it, but of late I have heard a few comments, from people closer, to the effect that Stefanie Perri was not a particularly good candidate and that the campaign was very disorganised and shambolic. We did far worse in Chisholm than in adjacent Bruce where a good campaign, which was greatly assisted by Jennifer Yang’s connections in the Chinese community, saw a swing to Labor. The same support was available for Chisholm but not properly utilised.
It would be good to see not just a woman get the spot, but one of Asian migrant background.
No wonder newspaper sales are in freefall with the standard of journalism in this country.
The Network 10 woman asked about job pathways for the 11,200 teenagers getting carers payments. Porter said he wished that the people could be cared for in institutions – not keen on paying 14 year olds. Porter hoped that carers could move into paid work as carers as they had the experience, but they generally go onto unemployment benefits
Guytaur,
The press gallery is so out of touch they spend half hour of questions in NPC without one asking what jobs do you expect people to be helped into?
The sort that the increasing casualisation of the workforce is making manifest. Where if you are lacking in skills that can be profitably monetised, or if you lack a network of friends and family that can help you into a job or start up, then you will be exploited for your labour, and like it. Otherwise an easily importable Visa-clutching substitute will be whistled-up to take your place.
Your existence will be so precarious, as you find it increasingly-difficult to qualify for a Welfare payment if you don’t take whatever job is offered to you, that you will take the job just so you can keep your head above water.
No more Penalty Rates, Zero Hours Contracts, no more Holiday Pay, Sick Pay, or Long Service Leave. As long as you can put food on the table, pay the bills and keep a roof over your head and a car on the road to get to the job which is a brute commute away from home, you will be ‘happy’.
Attack the vulnerable.Thats all the Fibs are good for.
Regarding ME, voters are opposed to the plebiscite because it is stalling (a non binding referrendum?). So obviously, they will want a straight vote in parliament (on gay rights).
Interesting article and video:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/09/18/trump_supporter_infiltrates_ohio_clinton_campaign_office_discovers_no_volunteers.html
Apparently in journalism “infiltration” now means “walking in through the front door and proclaiming your support for the other side”. I might have to “infiltrate” some anti-marriage-equality campaign offices, just for fun.
‘ Porter hoped that carers could move into paid work as carers as they had the experience, but they generally go onto unemployment benefits..’
Well, there’s a simple solution – when a former carer rocks up to Centrelink, they should be immediately offered the opportunity to do a short course to formally recognise their skills.
There are quite a few areas where this should happen – farmers on drought benefits, for example – where a little spending up front might prevent someone being on unemployment benefits in the long term.
billie
Thats not asking what jobs are there. That question assumes jobs are there. Unemployment rate tells us this is not true.
I’d like to slip in a quick compliment to Victorian transport minister Jacinta Allen for this story:
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/level-crossing-removals-fast-tracked-as-government-puts-more-work-to-tender-20160920-grk1um.html
The successful sale of Melbourne Port and spare cash resulting (kudos Premier Andrews) is being well used here. The extra work identified will increase the benefits of the project, and the number of people benefitting. These multiple small projects do more good, have less impact and employ more people than the big EW link type PPP scams. Sensible transport policy – more please!
zoomster
I agree with you that should be done. Of course doing such a course is no help if at end of it there is no job to get.
So, Dutton is doing big brother spying on Australian citizens’ Facebook entries.
The spying, being done by his Department, is about the wrongthink policy views to which Dutton is opposed.
Orwell.
As awful as Trump is, I’d still love to see him rebut Turnbull on that.
Guytaur I agree that there needs to be job creation rather than job destruction and offshoring train construction to Korea.
Porter had said that jobs were expected to grow in care for the aged, the disabled and child care. Whether he wants to a living wage to those workers is a moot poin
Billie
Porter is making heroic assumptions.
There is zero evidence that those occupations will be for all jobseekers skillset. Some just are not able to do that kind of work. Then even if there was there is no evidence that all those jobs will create full employment.
We know unemployment is going up in the next few years. Driverless cars is a reality coming our way plus drones and 3D printing. To name just some we know about.
Unemployment is permanent and going to get higher. We are living in a leisure age and we should start addressing raising revenue to get income to people on this reality instead of pretending we are going to see full employment again.
Yes, most would agree with you but sadly there are a few, like Bemused, complaining.
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen such a progressive Govt.
Bemused
I noticed your comments about Peter Evans on the previous thread and had a look at the youtube you linked. What was the illness that killed him?
Player One
Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 12:52 pm
Therein lies the truth. You would permit anyone to form a relationship – how good of you – but only those who meet the approval of a religious body should be permitted to “marry”. Far from extending equality to same-sex couples, you would restore the privileges of the clerics – the privilege of deciding whom they would recognise and marry.
You also compare sexual orientation to choosing a religion. For sure, people can choose the latter. But they do not get to choose the former. You may be heterosexual. Whether you are or are not is not something you have elected. You may be male or female. Whatever you are, you played no part in it.
Very obviously, you are opposed to the equal treatment of same-sex couples, no matter you have managed to trick yourself into thinking otherwise.
billie @ #22 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 2:47 pm
This is right about the trains.
But we need to have a continuous stream of work for the factories that will build them. That means consolidation of the industry in Australia and pursuit of export orders.
I can think of 4 train builders in Australia off the top of my head. We cannot support that many cutting each others throats.
The unsuccessful candidate for Deakin, Tony Clark from the centre-right faction, is reportedly also getting a push for Conroys senate spot.
Jennifer Yang loses out to the factions it seems.
rex douglas @ #24 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 2:54 pm
Again you prove your abject stupidity.
I completely approve of all that is being done with public transport.
I simply question the wisdom of selling the lease of the port and point to alternatives to fund the public transport projects.
In fact, there’s evidence to the contrary.
My wife is employed as a care worker in the aged-care industry. They required her to start out as a casual, and only just recently (after spending 2 years with the same company) agreed to bring her up to permanent part-time status. She has basically zero chance of attaining full-time employment with her current employer or any other local aged-care providers. Most of them only advertise casual positions, and none of them advertise anything better than permanent part-time. Full-time jobs just don’t exist if you’re a carer.
Send more workers over, and that’ll result in even fewer hours available for each carer, and an even greater rate of underemployment.
The solution almost certainly lies with IT, services, and intellectual-property. That’s where you’re going to see stability and growth, full-time employment, and reasonable income levels.
A proper NBN would have been a real boost to all of those industries. Shame we won’t be getting one.
Bemused
You stated as a matter of fact that there were better alternatives, but failed to back this up with comparative numbers.
You’ve provided no economic basis for you statement, other than an ideological philosophy.
darn @ #25 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 2:55 pm
I wondered the same. I either can’t remember or never knew.
I think it was partly a broken heart.
He had a broken marriage and a daughter he rarely saw and absolutely pined for. Deep down he seemed to be a desperately unhappy man.
His show often had me in stitches. He used to regularly report the weather at Upotipotpon and engage in a one way conversation with the good folk at Upotipotpon.
Yes, such a place really exists.
rex douglas @ #31 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 3:06 pm
The government could manipulate the return it got from the port by altering the charges. It is not one number.
You can find out the rate at which the government can borrow as easily as I can.
Don’t add laziness to your stupidity.
Bemused
Clearly you’re unable to back up your statement of fact re the Port lease deal.
Now time to move on.
Briefly
So it all comes down to this, as I suspected it might. Your gripe is really about the right to use the word “marriage”, and not about actual equality or the realities of the relationship.
I think you had better be thankful we are not likely to have a plebiscite on the issue, because with attitudes such as this you could easily lose it – and never understand why.
Regarding the train construction, as with submarines, it will only survive if there is a steady supply of work. There is enough demand (growing population and patronage) to keep one or two rail builders going, that is all. The obvious logic would be to keep Bombardier in Qld going making heavy rail rolling stock for Qld, WA and SA, and for the Dandenong plant to make LRT/trams.
Sydney and Melbourne train manufacture will never be resolved until we get some standardisation. We make more different classes of passenger trains than Germany does (only 2 manufacturers there). Crazy. Not the industry’s fault that it can’t compete with such bad policy. Four train makers here will never survive.
Player One
Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 3:15 pm
Briefly
You would permit anyone to form a relationship – how good of you – but only those who meet the approval of a religious body should be permitted to “marry”.
So it all comes down to this, as I suspected it might. Your gripe is really about the right to use the word “marriage”, and not about actual equality or the realities of the relationship.
It is not I that am opposed to the use of the term “marriage” to describe the registration of voluntary, exclusive and permanent unions between couples. It is you.
I propose marriage equality. You propose something else.
Unemployment today is principally a method by which the government puts downward pressure on inflation and would more or less disappear if the government switched back to a full employment objective.
Furthermore, we are moving into an era in which the labour offered by the majority of people will have no economic value and it will be untenable to maintain any majority as a pool of unemployed.
So the body politic needs to start singing a new song.
Regarding The sale of Melbourne Ports, of course I would rather we did not dispose of public assetts. However avoiding that needs tax revenue, which is a Commonwealth (undischarged) responsibility. Without it, if States have to sell something, I would rather they went for a long term lease than permanent sale, and got a fair price. Victoria appears to have done that in this case.
briefly
I propose equality in a manner that is likely to bring much of the 30-40% of the population that currently oppose it on side. But you don’t want just any old equality, you only want your idea of equality. As a result, you could very easily end up with nothing. So be it.
William Bowe Editor of The Poll Bludger :
In other news, I mean to start shaking myself out of a spell of post-election laziness, so I’ll have BludgerTrack back in one form or another next week.
**********************
Hi William – any chance in your spare time you can investigate/fix the 404. PAGE NOT FOUND – JBishop Death Stare when clicking – “you must be logged in to post a comment” ???????
For some reason it WAS working a week or so ago but not now – and for some unknown reason I can’t log in on my computer but have to fall on the hospitality of a friend to use their computer to even post this …. THANK YOU ….
You can’t solve unemployment by having the government(s) build things anyways. You need industries that allow people to earn incomes consisting primarily of dollars that aren’t sourced from government coffers. Keeping military and civil projects local is good pork-barreling, but not a sustainable long-term solution to any problem.
Over time, in private hands, port charges will rise. These charges will act as a tax on the Victorian economy. The revenue will not flow to the public sector but to private hands. The long run result will be lower growth in tradable goods in Victoria. Employment, output and incomes will all ultimately be lower than they would otherwise be. Privatisation of key utilities is a really idiotic idea. They should remain in public hands.
billie @ #11 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 2:20 pm
What an attack on those requiring care. Aholes.
Blast! Just finished by submission to the Senate census inquiry, and then discovered someone else has submitted one that makes almost exactly the same points, and does it much more elegantly! And in about 1/2 the number of words!
Oh well, I will submit mine anyway – at least it’ll make those bloody bureaucrats and Senators work for their pay for a change!
PhoenixRED
Try scrolling to the top of the page. On the banner click on account. ‘Log in’.
That should take you to the Crickey main page. Top left ‘Sections’. Select PB.
zoomster @ #16 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 2:26 pm
If they waited until the one requiring care no longer needed care, sure. Great idea. He however wants them to get jobs while they still have loved ones requiring care. 🙄
rex douglas @ #34 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 3:15 pm
Don’t be so stupid Rex.
Al the Govt would have to do would be to increase port charges to the point where they returned more than the cost of borrowing $10B or whatever the sale price was. Any more revenue and they would be better off. Plus they would not be locked into an agreement that hampered future planning.
From an article appearing in April last year:
“The rate on 10-year bonds issued by the Treasury Corporation of Victoria is just 2.79 per cent. After factoring in underlying inflation, the government is able to borrow at a “real” interest rate of less than 1 per cent. If interests are cut again, it could conceivably pay the government to borrow.” Rates now are probably even lower but I haven’t seen figures.
Can you provide the contractual terms in relation to Port charge increases over the 50 yr term… or are you also stating fact based on an ideology ?
player one @ #45 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 3:31 pm
I’m sure they will get a good laugh out of your ravings. 😆