Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll suggests voters want parliament to legislate for same-sex marriage if they can’t get their favoured option of a plebiscite, as the Coalition primary vote maintains a slow downward trend.

This week’s Essential Research finds the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 37%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 4%, with two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. The poll also finds 53% favouring a vote by parliament on same-sex marriage in the event that the Senate blocks a plebiscite, with only 29% opposed. Support for the proposed plebiscite question, “should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?”, is at 60% with 30% opposed, compared with results of 57% and 28% when the same question was posed a month ago. Only 22% of respondents supported the goverment’s plan for $7.5 million of advertising to be provided for both sides of the argument, with 68% opposed. When asked about the biggest threats to job security in Australia, 31% nominated “free trade deals that allow foreign workers into the Australian market”, 23% companies using labour hire and contracting out, 18% the impact of technological change, and high wages in last place on 11%.

In other news, I mean to start shaking myself out of a spell of post-election laziness, so I’ll have BludgerTrack back in one form or another next week. In the meantime, I have the following to relate:

• The Australian reports that factional arrangements ensure that Stephen Conroy’s own sub-faction of the Victorian Right will decide his successor when he vacates his Senate seat on September 30. That seems to bode well for his ally Mehmet Tillem, who previously served in the Senate from late 2013 until mid-2014, when he served out David Feeney’s term after he moved to the lower house seat of Batman at the September 2013 election. However, some in the party are said to be arguing that the position should go to a woman, specifically to Stefanie Perri, the former Monash mayor who ran unsuccessfully in Chisholm at the recent election.

• A draft redistribution proposal has been published for the Northern Territory’s two electorates, in which early 3000 voters are to be transferred from growing Solomon (covering Darwin and Palmerston) to stagnant Lingiari (covering the remainder of the territory). The transfer encompasses Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli at the eastern edge of Palmerston, together with the Litchfield Shire areas around Knuckey Lagoon immediately east of Darwin. This is a conservative area, so the change would strengthen Labor in Solomon and weaken them in Lingiari.

• A redistribution for the five electorates in Tasmania is in its earliest stages, with a period for preliminary public suggestions to run from November 2 to December 5.

• The Liberal National Party announced last week it would not challenge its 37 vote defeat in the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, despite complaints from Senator Ian Macdonald that the Australian Eleectoral Commission had promised hospital patients it would take their votes on polling day without delivering, and that students outside the electorate were denied absent votes because the required envelopes were not available. The 40-day deadline for lodgement of a challenge closed on Saturday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,992 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. greensborough growler @ #2826 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 6:11 pm

    BB,
    The intention of Turnbull and Brandis is to scupper the Plebiscite. The second part is that they want to blame Labor for it failing to pass muster so they can appease their Conservative rump that they did everyhing possible, but unfortunately he could not get it through. The next phase is to drop the whole thing and put off the vote ubtil some undetermined time in the furure.
    It’s a pretty simple and transparent strategy.

    But the Conservative rump do not want a plebiscite. They would rather the issue would just go away and the public move onto some other cause du jour. Like what happened with the Republic referendum. They support a plebiscite because it is less certain and more open to manipulation than a straight free vote in Parliament.

    If Labor kills the plebiscite, the Conservative rump (as you call them) will be giving themselves high fives.

    However, they are sadly mistaken if they think the issue will go away for the rest of the term of parliament and maybe forever. Unlike the republic push, marriage equality is not some sort of romantic symbolic venture. There are real people who have a real and practical interest in being able to marry their partners or have overseas marriages recognised as marriages under Australian law. And there are more and more who have gotten married in New Zealand, Canada, the UK and the USA who are not going to sit back and watch Parliament ignore them.

    For the rest of this government’s term the pressure will be great for a Parliamentary vote. It may not happen because Turnbull does not want to give up his current day job (it’s as politically craven as that) but it won’t go away and most people (everyone other than rusted on Coalition groupies) will not blame Labor for it still being a running sore on the body politic.

  5. So it turns out that the Chief Fire Officer at the MFB did not resign as result of a an illness contracted at Fiskville, but rather as a result of bullying by the United Firefighters Union.
    Just seen Lisa Nevilles grovelling apology on the TV news. What a piece of work she is, of course she did not intend to mislead anybody about the reasons behind Mr Rau’s resignation.

  8. GG @ 5.39

    SSM is not a vote changer while it bounces around as an issue.

    I agree with this. But there are relatively few vote changers without one side’s position being degraded over a long time. For most Australians, the failure to finalise this issue will degrade their opinion of the Government as able to deliver good government. Like Parliamentary disorder, it all contributes to a sense of chaos, non-achievement and incompetence.

    Not that that should be the main driver in this debate over a plebiscite. Indeed, people’s live should not be political playthings. But it is the way the plebiscite has been set up – as a purely advisory opinion poll – that is treating people as political playthings. The only people who are directly affected – LGBTIQ people and their families – are largely against a plebiscite. Not because they believe that Parliament will deliver a free vote if the plebiscite does not go ahead. But because a plebiscite debate is both a danger to the health and safety of people in their community and because the idea of a unique opinion poll on the civil rights of one group of people in our society is fundamentally immoral.

  9. TPOF,

    It’s Abbott’s policy to hold the Plebiscite. It was also part of the deal with Turnbull for the Conservatives to stay on side. There is no doubt the demise of the Plebiscite will enable the Conservatives to delay/defer or kill off the issue.

    The rest of your post is standard rhetoric.

    If Turnbull is to proceed with anything afterwards he will need to change Government policy and that will need to be taken to the joint Coalition Party room. Turnbull isn’t going to want the spectacle of a divided Party room to be on public display. So, his best option will be to sideline the whole issue during this Parliament.

  10. ctar1 @ #2848 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 7:05 pm

    BiS

    Iraq had WMDs, the West had sold them to him, but did they still have them, was unclear and becoming more and more unlikely as the UN inspectors were discovering.

    While the forces to invade Iraq were massing I recall Sadam being interviewed.
    He said during the interview if they wanted to find WMD’s they’d need to give him at least 6 months notice.

    Must have been the time needed to find the spot in the dessert where he dumped them or to buy some new ones?

  11. diogenes @ #2819 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 5:56 pm

    The Dutch were even more gutless and anti-Semitic than the French and shamefully collaborated with the Nazis, handing over Jews for extermination as fast as the Nazis could take them.

    Dio
    This does not accord with any knowledge that I have of the respective countries during German occupation (and, in the case of France, the territory covered by the Vichy regime). France, the country of the Dreyfus Affair, was a far more dangerous country for betrayal than the Netherlands, even though all of the Netherlands was under direct Nazi control.

    On what basis do you make this claim?

  12. Turnbull’s problem is not so much with the principle of SSM rather it is with the (correct) observation of his being under the control of the right wing rump of the Coalition.
    The other game being played is the last ditch attempt of the religious to maintain their self-proclaimed moral authoutiy.

  15. BiS

    Must have been the time needed to find the spot in the dessert where he dumped them or to buy some new ones?

    I think he was saying what they did have in the past was long gone but they knew how to make some more.

  16. GG – you are right of course. If the plebiscite is blocked, same sex marriage will not happen for at least X+ 3 months, where X is the period left until the Liberals lose office – at least 2.5 years barring surprises.

    If a plebiscite is held, it won’t happen for at least 6 months, the consevatives will determine the timing of a bill to allow same sex marriage, and the circumstances under which it will occur (as is everything Malcolm is allowed to do). If, as the conservatives are hoping, they can create enough fear and confusion to get enough people who don’t feel strongly about the issue to vote against it, the issue is sunk for a decade or more.

  17. GG @ 7.24

    The rest of your post is standard rhetoric.

    That is pretty superficially trite, even for you.

    What makes you think that a PM whose balls are permanently locked in a vice squeezed at will by the right wing of his Coalition is going to continue to call the shots? He has no authority within his party. What authority does he have to guide the public discourse?

    As I said in other comments, I have no doubt that there will not be a free vote on marriage equality while he is PM. But that does not mean the issue will go to sleep for a few years like the right so complacently believe. It won’t and every day it is still out there will be a day that further undermines the standing and authority of Turnbull and his government.

  19. steve777 @ #2867 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 7:37 pm

    GG – you are right of course. If the plebiscite is blocked, same sex marriage will not happen for at least X+ 3 months, where X is the period left until the Liberals lose office – at least 2.5 years barring surprises.
    If a plebiscite is held, it won’t happen for at least 6 months, the consevatives will determine the timing of a bill to allow same sex marriage, and the circumstances under which it will occur (as is everything Malcolm is allowed to do). If, as the conservatives are hoping, they can create enough fear and confusion to get enough people who don’t feel strongly about the issue to vote against it, the issue is sunk for a decade or more.

    That’s exactly how I’m seeing it.

  26. william bowe @ #2873 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 7:56 pm

    The Dutch were even more gutless and anti-Semitic than the French and shamefully collaborated with the Nazis, handing over Jews for extermination as fast as the Nazis could take them.

    Must pass that one on to any surviving participants of the February strike.

    Thanks, William. I’ve never heard of that. All I knew is that the Dutch historically and even today have had a very open and tolerant society. Of all the the countries invaded by the Germans, the Dutch were among the least likely (along with the Danes) to want to help the Germans perpetrate the Holocaust.

  29. If the plebiscite is blocked, same sex marriage will not happen for at least X+ 3 months, where X is the period left until the Liberals lose office – at least 2.5 years barring surprises.

    Someone earlier compared it with the apology to the stolen generations. It’ll take a Labor govt to achieve this, just as it was with the apology.

  31. daretotread @ #2877 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 8:05 pm

    Anna frank??????

    Anne Frank. How much do you know about her and her situation? Do you realise she and her family were sheltered and protected by Dutch people for years. The fact that they were finally betrayed by someone should not reflect adversely on those who put their lives at risk to hide them.

    No nationality is uniformly good or bad. There were a number of instances of immense courage by Poles in protecting, hiding and smuggling Jewish people in occupied Poland. But that does not mean that the bulk of the Polish population, raised on anti-semitism in their mothers’ milk did not willingly help out the Germans in their murderous cleansing of Jews from Poland.

  33. TPOF
    Dutch tolerance is being severely tested by muslim migration etc, etc, etc. The tolerant ones are under severe political pressure from the intolerant ones.
    That said, the mayor of Rotterdam is a muslim.

  34. I recommend the Resistance Museum in Amsterdam.
    When I was there the main exhibition was about the choices that people faced – ordinary people like me and you.
    Suddenly veiled references, unguarded moments, anguish, silences and the like of my very large extended family, became meaningful.
    I wept.

  35. [ It’ll take a Labor govt to achieve this, just as it was with the apology.]

    I think you’re on the money there confessions.

  36. I’ve just noticed on http://www.willyweather.com.au/ (which is a very informative weather website) that we face a 95% certainty of 50 to 100 mm of rain on Thursday. The ground is currently saturated and creeks and dams are full. Flooding in the Adelaide Hills and Onkaparinga River will be a high probability I’d think.

  38. I should note in passing that I was raised as Roman Catholic, far right-wing, rural gentry anti-Semite in the rich tradition of European anti-semetism.
    Anti-semitic impulses more or less automatically arise from deep within. I wish it were not so, but it is.
    Time and time again I have to tell myself, ‘Whoa, think that through, carefully.’

    For a while, a jewish teenage girl, a starving refugee of the Hungry Winter, was cared for in my grandparent’s house.
    When mum, then a teenager herself, realized that she was jewish, she chased her from the house, probably to her death.
    The difficulty for Mum was this: SS officers were billeted in her house.
    I don’t think mum ever fully recovered.
    One of my Aunties, seven months pregnant, and a genteel person, literally shat herself in terror during a german commando in her village.
    One of my Aunties was shot at while she was beating the carpet out of her window. The germans were retreating on a barge and had no particular reason to shoot at her but perhaps for a bit of fun. They missed.
    One of my uncles was on the run from slave labour for the last year of the war.
    Another of my uncles was in the Resistance, eventually to be buried with full military honours following his suicide. There was a bit of a view that he was in the Resistance for better black market opportunities. But who now knows?
    The last horse on my other grandparent’s farm was killed when a US heavy bomber crashed on it, killing half the crew. This was a major disaster for managing the farm. The survivors were taken to the local doctor under german guard. My mother, then an assistant to he local doctor, kicked one of the german guards in the leg when he made an indecent proposal. The survivors returned after the war and made particular mention of how that had helped their morale.
    My father had PTSD following a stint on the Burma Railroad as a guest of His Imperial Majesty. He had endured bombing by the Japanese during the invasion of Java. He was subsequently bombed by the US on the Burma Railway, in a camp that was clustered deliberately near the approaches to a railway bridge. So he was being used as a human shield. Several hundred POWs were killed in that raid. The memory of Dad’s ages, often around food incidents, still send shivers up my spine. He liked Hiroshima.
    My grandparents on my father’s side died young – probably as a direct result of privation and stresses related to the war. But who knows?
    I regard none of the above as anything particularly out of the ordinary in Europe during World Two.
    In response to Dio, during the War and the Occupation, there was no ‘the Dutch’.
    There were just a whole lot of ordinary people who faced a series of bad choices.
    ‘Sophie’s Choice’ made eminent sense to me as a starting proposition in real life.

  39. I notice that QANDA tonight is a South Australian affair. I think this could either go very well or very bad. Shame that Xenophon (or a Xenophonian) are not on the panel.

    Panelists – Jay Weatherill, Penny Wong, Simon Birmingham and Amanda Vanstone

  41. I travelled from Paris to Berlin via Amsterdam once just so I could get stoned. When i arrived at 4 in the morning a couple were having sex in the main square, the riksmuseum was under renovation, i couldnt find Anne Franks house, i got yelled at for walking on the bike paths, it was a blisteringly cold January day and the highlight was an American busker doing brilliant versions of Blind Willie Johnson songs. Id love to go back.

  42. Whatever your attitude to the plebescite and ssm, what’s happening now is further eating into Malcolm’s popularity, from two sides – firstly, he is losing support from those who thought we would be getting Real Malcolm after the election (and the longer the issue drags on, the more this will be so) and secondly, he is losing support because the more the issue is being discussed, the more people are reminded that nothing is happening. And, of course, the combination of one and two is to reinforce the idea that he is weak and waffly.

    (I realise the second one isn’t ‘fair’, in that he has promised the plebescite, but that was supposed to get the issue off the table. It hasn’t, and that gives the average voter the perception that the government isn’t getting it done).

  44. ZOOMSTER – I’m also wondering if this SSM stuff is also eating into Malcolm’s soul. I’d love to know what’s going on in there.

  46. El Guapo

    According to OH who was there in the mid 80’s Anne Frank’s house was very small & hard to find.

    Amsterdam was her favourite city though on that trip as she was studying in Germany and it was like a breath of fresh air.

  47. K17
    I know personally and reasonably well many hundreds Dutch people.
    Some are arrogant. Some are not.
    I do know that anglophones tend to be uncomfortable around Dutch directness.
    Fortunately most of this directness is directed at other Dutch people who are being equally direct and who expect the directness and who admire it the opposite to shillyshallying mealymouthed dodging around.
    Different cultures value different things.
    I recall the amazement of my parents at the way in which anglophones at Australian social meetings routinely split into male and female clusters.
    This was simply unknown in Holland of the thirties and forties.
    Stereotypes abound.

  48. I know a dutch guy who proudly reckons that the dutch are the most arrogant people on earth. I think he’s right.

    We’re surrounded by them in my neck of the woods and that’s my experience too.

  49. I’m also wondering if this SSM stuff is also eating into Malcolm’s soul.

    MT strikes me very much as a ‘whatever it takes’ type in order to get what he wants. I doubt he personally cares about climate change or SSM unless those issues serve as a direct vehicle to his personal ambitions.

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