Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The weekly result from Essential Research finds Labor’s lead reaching heights not seen since the last days of Tony Abbott.

The latest weekly reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a widening of Labor’s two-party lead, which is out from 52-48 to 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 37% and Labor is up one to 37%, with the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 5% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 3%. Quite a few interesting supplementary questions this week:

• Respondents were asked to retrospectively evaluate major government decisions, recording big majorities in favour of Medibank/Medicare and compulsory superannuation, lesser but still favourable results for the GST, floating the dollar and free trade agreements, an even balance on reducing subsidies to car manufacturing, and strong opposition to the privatisations of Qantas, Telstra and the Commonwealth Bank.

• There is an even balance of opinion on the New South Wales government’s backflip on banning greyhound racing, with 41% approving and 38% disapproving.

• Seventy-nine per cent would be “concerned” if Donald Trump became President, with only 14% not concerned.

• With a plebiscite off the table, 55% say a vote should be held in parliament, while 30% say the matter should be left on the table until the election.

• Sixty per cent said they would support a tax cut for small businesses, with 17% opposed; almost the exact reverse say the same for larger companies (20% and 61%); and if small business was taken to apply to companies with upwards of $2 million revenue, 26% would be in favour and 41% opposed.

• Fifty-eight per cent approve of Labor’s 50% renewable energy target by 2030.

• Fifty-eight per cent are “not confident” that the government together with the current Senate will be able to get things done that the nation needs.

• Thirty-five per cent expect the government will run full term compared with 39% who expect an early election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,641 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  4. Far from a honeymoon; more like the electorate seems to be seeking a quick divorce. But unfortunately, enough fell for the fantasy that Malcolm would be different once he had an election win under his belt, a fantasy frequently promoted by the majority of the media.

  11. Senator Penny Wong
    1h1 hour ago
    Senator Penny Wong ‏@SenatorWong
    Brandis telling us a Liberal event, “An Evening with Tim Wilson”, cheques payable to Liberal Party, isn’t a fundraiser. So that’s all ok.

  12. ‘Was there even a consummation?’
    No, but we’re all screwed!

    I can’t say I enjoyed it.
    I just closed my eyes and thought of England

  15. So, according to Malcolm Turncoat in Question Time, Bikies who may know someone in the CFMEU, who may know someone in Labor= the worst sort of political malfeasance one can imagine and thus deserves it’s own special Stasi to police it. However, proven links into the Liberal Party by the Mafia= Meh?

  20. victoria
    I was just watching estimates, Macdonald really is a ghastly man. After 20 odd minutes I still couldn’t work out his line of questioning other than he’s looking to wedge Triggs.

  23. How low can the polls go for the LNP? When the polls were this good/bad for Labor all the media were into were dire predictions……….for Labor….I guess with no Federal election anywhere near close, the banner headlines on polls sink into the morass somewhere. I suspect that the members of the Turnbull cheer squad still believe that some uplift for him will come sooner the later. Meanwhile the forces of darkest on the LNP right are sharpening the knives.

  24. The responses to the supplementary questions above are interesting. Even allowing for a large MOE, they all favour Labor’s policies.
    After all of Alder Tag today I still wouldn’t put it past Leyonhjelm to still back the government on ABCC.

  25. Jeez, David, if you let them screw you and there are no consequences, I strongly suspect they will screw you again. But, of course, you are a brilliant man and know better.

  26. A friend just arrived back from the US and gave me a “Trump for President 2016” badge which I wore through the office as a lark. Let’s just say Trump wouldn’t be getting too many votes from female nurses in Australia. I barely survived two minutes before I had to remove it.

  27. I think that the Greens will make a clean sweep of the City of Port Phillip council elections in Victoria on Saturday ie all 9 councillors will be Green which is dangerous as none of the existing councillors will be re-elected.
    How can this happen

    1. people think that local council elections are a joke and vote to avoid the fine
    2. the existing councillors don’t state their political affiliation so as I don’t want to vote for a Liberal stooge or the NCC I was looking for a how to vote for ALP or Greens, no ALP How to Vote. Too bad, so sad ==> Greens in
    3. The candidates in my Ward seem to have forgotten about my corner and only have policies for the bayside residents

    If Greens have fielded candidates in every other council area, the state could have Green municipalities, won’t di Natale be thrilled

  29. Diogenes @26 I can imagine Americans voting for TRump, they are frightened of Obamacare even though more than one in three Americans dies bankrupt by the health care costs incurred in the last 2 years of life.

    I prefer to live with better odds than the near certainty that illness will destroy my family’s wealth

  30. Rod Culleton has failed in his attempt to kick off defamation proceedings against 18 folks in WA.

    By this he follows in the inauspicious steps of John Setka suing Tony Abott, that One Nation
    bloke who did time suing Tony Abbott and Craig Thomson.

    He must be longs odds on of having to say Bob Day to the senate as he sinks himself in unpaid legal costs.

  31. Billie,

    Doesn’t Port Phillip have PR now? It’d be difficult for the Greens to sweep that clean, especially since they only managed 25%-ish at the last federal election in those areas, which would mean they’d need to triple their vote from an already-high base.

  32. Airlines, City of Port Phillip has reorganised itself into 3 wards electing 3 councillors. When I voted I said hello to former work colleague who is standing for another ward, grabbed a Green How to Vote as I couldn’t identify any of the existing councillors for my ward, I had spoken to one last week, and walked into the booth.

    Only the Greens identified themselves, the Liberals and ALP only identify themselves by the blue stripe on their corflutes in front yards, which I don’t see as I shop and play in other council areas.

    Upon my return I spoke to former work colleague who left me with the distinct impression that my behaviour was normal for pre-poll.

  33. Or to put it another way most existing councillors do not have a recognisable brand, it might be different in the bayside areas where they live and are absorbed in flooding and lack of transport issues. They are in for a rude shock if the my neighbours the flat dwellers have a vote as I live in the densest population area of my ward.

    Do residents vote in council elections or only Australian citizens or only rate payers?

  35. I’m trying to see the most obvious path to an early election. It would either need a few by-elections in marginal seats, or for the L-NP to split. I think the latter more likely, which is why Tony Abbott is currently my favourite Lib. Go Tone! 🙂

    And speaking of splitting. How come in the L-NP it’s OK for the ratbags in the right say they will cross the floor on various issues, but the moderates never do the same?
    Piss-weak.

    All it takes is a few moderate Lib’s looking for something to hang their legacy on to get SSM through the house.

  36. ‘All it takes is a few moderate Lib’s looking for something to hang their legacy on to get SSM through the house.’

    At least two heroic assumptions there!

  37. Diogs,

    You poked your tongue at the nurses and they just went wild in anticipation of Doctor Deep Throat being on the ward.

  38. Nice points Questions, the right in the Liberals are definitely ascendant.

    ‘which is why Tony Abbott is currently my favourite Lib. Go Tone! ‘
    I must read more that isn’t an expression I am familiar with.

  39. Bevan Shields
    Bevan Shields – Verified account ‏@BevanShields

    The government has spent $159 million on campaign advertising so far this year. The figure is for campaigns above $250,000
    #estimates

  42. There is no particular reason to think that there will be an early election.
    The stats for people dying to create by-elections are at the low end.
    While there is going to be brinkmanship galore there is no particular reason for the funsters to actually destroy the source of their fun and their personal income.
    Finally, the default of the small government folk is (a) keep Labor out and (b) do nothing.
    Turnbull is meeting both his main KPIs.

  43. Who chooses these Senators for Committees? Clown Pyne?

    Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane · 1m1 minute ago

    Macdonald’s deafness or befuddlement is now becoming ridiculous – Wong had to say something to him three times just then.

  44. Sky News Australia
    11s11 seconds ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    The ABCC bill, the trigger for the double-dissolution election has passed the House of Reps #auspol

  45. Macdonald was never the sharpest knife in the drawer.
    He has never quite recovered from Abbott’s dumping him immediately after the 2013 election.
    He oozes bile. He drips bile. He sprays bile. He gouts bile.
    He is finally good at something.

  46. A taster from the Oz article on Thomas by Luke Slattery:

    ‘The song begins: “Early one morning the sun was shining/I was laying in bed/Wondering if she’d changed at all/If her hair was still red.” The only outstanding thing about these lines, which offer us the cringe-worthy image of a flame-haired lover simply to rhyme with “bed”, is their trundling banality.’

  47. billie @ #29 Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 5:04 pm

    Diogenes @26 I can imagine Americans voting for TRump, they are frightened of Obamacare even though more than one in three Americans dies bankrupt by the health care costs incurred in the last 2 years of life.
    I prefer to live with better odds than the near certainty that illness will destroy my family’s wealth

    I’m a member of a (expectant / new) Dad’s Facebook page which has many American dad’s on it. Many Americans have learned everything they know about universal (single payer) healthcare from people and organisations who are strongly opposed to it. You would not believe the misconceptions that those of us from countries with universal healthcare have had to dispel, or sadly, how many horror stories I’ve heard about how the US system works from the point of view of the average* American.

    * “average” = the ~90% of people without premium health insurance and/or immense financial resources.

  48. Hah!

    MSM Watchdog ‏@MSMWatchdog2013 · 28m28 minutes ago

    Guthrie just admitted in #SenateEstimates closing #ABC shopfronts has meant the organisation has lost a valuable revenue stream.

  50. lizzie @ #48 Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 6:44 pm

    Hah!

    MSM Watchdog ‏@MSMWatchdog2013 · 28m28 minutes ago
    Guthrie just admitted in #SenateEstimates closing #ABC shopfronts has meant the organisation has lost a valuable revenue stream.

    I was under the impression that the ABC shops themselves (separate from the ABC Shop sections of Dymocks etc) were not profitable.

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