Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The weekly result from Essential Research finds Labor’s lead reaching heights not seen since the last days of Tony Abbott.

The latest weekly reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a widening of Labor’s two-party lead, which is out from 52-48 to 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 37% and Labor is up one to 37%, with the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 5% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 3%. Quite a few interesting supplementary questions this week:

• Respondents were asked to retrospectively evaluate major government decisions, recording big majorities in favour of Medibank/Medicare and compulsory superannuation, lesser but still favourable results for the GST, floating the dollar and free trade agreements, an even balance on reducing subsidies to car manufacturing, and strong opposition to the privatisations of Qantas, Telstra and the Commonwealth Bank.

• There is an even balance of opinion on the New South Wales government’s backflip on banning greyhound racing, with 41% approving and 38% disapproving.

• Seventy-nine per cent would be “concerned” if Donald Trump became President, with only 14% not concerned.

• With a plebiscite off the table, 55% say a vote should be held in parliament, while 30% say the matter should be left on the table until the election.

• Sixty per cent said they would support a tax cut for small businesses, with 17% opposed; almost the exact reverse say the same for larger companies (20% and 61%); and if small business was taken to apply to companies with upwards of $2 million revenue, 26% would be in favour and 41% opposed.

• Fifty-eight per cent approve of Labor’s 50% renewable energy target by 2030.

• Fifty-eight per cent are “not confident” that the government together with the current Senate will be able to get things done that the nation needs.

• Thirty-five per cent expect the government will run full term compared with 39% who expect an early election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,641 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  5. CTar1

    The Boston Review has a look at the Chilcott and Foreign Affairs committee report.

    Report of the Iraq Inquiry
    Committee of Privy Councillors (Chair, Sir John Chilcot)
    July 2016

    Libya: Examination of intervention and collapse and the UK’s future policy options
    House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee
    September 2016

    The era of the West’s enthusiasm for military intervention is over. Two reports on Iraq and Libya—written from the heart of the British establishment and published recently—have delivered its obituary. Each is damning; together, they dismember the case for intervention in both its neocon and liberal-hawk variants. Although their focus is almost exclusively on decision-making within Whitehall—the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), the Ministry of Defence, and, above all, No. 10 Downing Street

    http://bostonreview.net/world/alex-de-waal-iraq-libya-interventionism

  6. Poroti – No surprise as they just don’t have the equipment these days anyway.

    The photos of the Russian TF will have been taken by the French. Dave and George trashed the Nimrods so no British maritime surveillance capability.

  8. Poroti

    The same as selling all the Harriers to the US Marines for USD$100m while you’re continuing to build an ACC that won’t have any fixed wing aircraft when its delivered …

  9. Victoria @ 6.27pm

    “Why are you paying out on confessions?”

    Did you not read her @ 5.15pm.

    What gives Confessions the unchallenged right to call others “bizarre”…. to insult a number of PBers with a stroke of the pen, because they are frequent visitors to PB.

    For me, the better question is why is there a group of people here who habitually and reflexively jump to her defence when anyone challenges what she says.

    I have similarly challenged DTT for things she has said, and to her credit she defends herself. DTT does not appear to have the status of a protected species.

  12. victoria @ #1523 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 6:27 pm

    Psyclaw
    Why are you paying out on confessions?

    Victoria, surely you realise that Confession’s 5.15 post was paying out on a large number of people here who find this a good place to be for a lot of the time, for whatever reason?

    Lots dip in and out over a period of hours, days, or weeks, some just lurk, but to each their own.

    There is no hard and fast rule about how often people may post.

    Believe it or not, some enjoy coming here and posting a lot.

    That is their decision.

    Others check the site out only occasionally, and post even less often.

    That is their decision. Nobody has the right to tell others how often they may post. Confessions overstepped the line.

    Here is her post, if you missed it:

    Confessions
    #1500 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 5:15 pm
    I think it’s a sad reflection on the individuals concerned that they seem to have nothing better to do with what’s left of their lives than seemingly sit on a blog all day and all night

    Yes, I’ve often wondered how these people actually achieve anything, whether it’s housework, a social life, a job, chill-out time?

    Their constant posting and reading of every comment infers a serious obsession with people they don’t even know. Truly bizarre behaviour.

  19. Over the time I have been posting here I have been a constant poster, an occasional poster and a seldom poster. It depends on what is happening in the political scene and what is happening in my life.
    Whatever floats people’s boats is fine.

  28. Paapets

    Why do you care about packer’s people. Heard the ex ambassador on Geradine Dooge (still the RNs best program) this morning. He was the guy in charge during the Stern Hu event. He said the Chinese were pretty good about following the letter of the law and that conditions would be basic but acceptable. In other words clean, enough food etc

    They had a general discussion about foreign companies and Chinese laws and the fact that many companies think the Chinese will turn a blind eye – until they do not. The issue seems to be about ant-corruption and stopping money laundering.

  36. [ See the amount of smoke coming from the Kuznetsov’s funnel? Filthy runnings. ]

    Lol! Apparently their carrier and their large missile cruisers always travel with a tug in attendance or within a day or so’s sailing.

    Wonder if Kuznetsov can actually crank up enough speed to launch a jet with any fuel or warload at the moment?? Its a ski jump job with no catapult after all.

  40. Imacca

    Dtt was talking about ‘encaps’ (submarine launched surface attack missiles) sometime recently.

    The best thing the Russians could do is take their ratsh#t old ACC out into the Barents Sea and try their encaps out.

  42. A joint sitting doesn’t help much atm because joint sitting require absolute majorities (ie 114+ than half of 226) to pass legislation. The net effect atm gives Turnbull 1.5 additional votes
    (+1 Seat Majority , + McGowan, – Day /
    his replacement (who’s have been a lock) since a the absolute majority requirement negated an absent Senator effectively splitting 50/50)).

    I’m actually not sure a joint sitting is even doable in this sitting don’t we have a bunch of delegates at some UN thing in the US at the moment from both parties ?

  44. CTARI

    I imagine that the Russian Plan is to keep planes aboard to prevent an “accidental” attack on their airbase. If the planes are at sea obviously any attack would be deliberate. it is probably more for show than anything else.

    Mind you I did read the article you linked and they implied the boat was fast and capable, even though it had problems.

    The Russians have been quite rapidly expanding their navy in the last 10 years (according to wikipaedia). Most of the emphasis is on submarines and smaller patrol boats.

  45. daretotread @ #1594 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 10:59 pm

    CTARI
    I imagine that the Russian Plan is to keep planes aboard to prevent an “accidental” attack on their airbase. If the planes are at sea obviously any attack would be deliberate. it is probably more for show than anything else.
    Mind you I did read the article you linked and they implied the boat was fast and capable, even though it had problems.
    The Russians have been quite rapidly expanding their navy in the last 10 years (according to wikipaedia). Most of the emphasis is on submarines and smaller patrol boats.

    IIRC, the US runs 6 Carrier Battle Groups plus its submarines and other ships.
    They are so far ahead of everyone else in naval power that it is a one horse race and will stay that way for quite a while to come.

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