Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The weekly result from Essential Research finds Labor’s lead reaching heights not seen since the last days of Tony Abbott.

The latest weekly reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a widening of Labor’s two-party lead, which is out from 52-48 to 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 37% and Labor is up one to 37%, with the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 5% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 3%. Quite a few interesting supplementary questions this week:

• Respondents were asked to retrospectively evaluate major government decisions, recording big majorities in favour of Medibank/Medicare and compulsory superannuation, lesser but still favourable results for the GST, floating the dollar and free trade agreements, an even balance on reducing subsidies to car manufacturing, and strong opposition to the privatisations of Qantas, Telstra and the Commonwealth Bank.

• There is an even balance of opinion on the New South Wales government’s backflip on banning greyhound racing, with 41% approving and 38% disapproving.

• Seventy-nine per cent would be “concerned” if Donald Trump became President, with only 14% not concerned.

• With a plebiscite off the table, 55% say a vote should be held in parliament, while 30% say the matter should be left on the table until the election.

• Sixty per cent said they would support a tax cut for small businesses, with 17% opposed; almost the exact reverse say the same for larger companies (20% and 61%); and if small business was taken to apply to companies with upwards of $2 million revenue, 26% would be in favour and 41% opposed.

• Fifty-eight per cent approve of Labor’s 50% renewable energy target by 2030.

• Fifty-eight per cent are “not confident” that the government together with the current Senate will be able to get things done that the nation needs.

• Thirty-five per cent expect the government will run full term compared with 39% who expect an early election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,641 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Bemused
    Just read on wiki that they were to get 100 new craft between about 2013 and 2010. There seem to be a heck of a lot of newish ships according to wiki.

  6. paaptsef @ #1600 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 11:18 pm

    Bishop will sort the Packer thing out for sure

    …………………………………………………………………

    Well…..we are told over and over (by ‘some’ in the media at least) that mesma is an “outstanding FM”.

    Complete and utter BS of course – happy to be corrected though.

    Lets see how mesma goes – and how “outstanding” works out….

  7. Again just from wiki
    Russia has 62 submarines of which 10 are very new
    There seem to be another 14 under construction due in the next four years

  11. Bemused
    Yes – it would appear that of those 100, 24 at least are submarines. More than half seem to be already in the water if not yet commissioned

    There seem to be about 20 new patrol boats already on service (less than 5 years old) and more under construction. This just what is reported in wiki.

  12. Bemused
    I assume that the new ones will be pretty advanced, judging by their other military hardware of recent manufacture.

    So I would guess that of the 62, 50 will be old cold war models and 10-12 pretty new and modern. There seem to be another 10 on the drawing board (some in the water) and I assume that like all military they have a few more hidden away somewhere.

  14. Dtt

    Mind you I did read the article you linked and they implied the boat was fast and capable, even though it had problems.

    Like Belgrano – most of the time it didn’t work but on the odd occasion it did it was a problem.

    Soon there’ll be more ACCs in the Eastern Med than there have been at anytime since the Suez Crisis (IIRC the count then was 5).

  15. Bemused
    A question that I wonder about, not really grasping military strategy, but I sort of wonder whether bigger/complex always means better. It seems to me that the more the bells and whistles the more chance there is of something going badly wrong.

  16. daretotread @ #1615 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 11:44 pm

    Bemused
    A question that I wonder about, not really grasping military strategy, but I sort of wonder whether bigger/complex always means better. It seems to me that the more the bells and whistles the more chance there is of something going badly wrong.

    Aerial bombing is a good example of what technology has done.
    in WWII hundreds of bombers would carpet bomb a target with many hundreds of tons of bombs and maybe not even hit the main target.
    Now, one plane drops one guided munitions bomb and hits the target, destroying it.

  17. Dtt

    Russia has 62 submarines of which 10 are very new
    There seem to be another 14 under construction due in the next four years

    And it seems they are bringing some oldies but goodies out of retirement and fitting them with new weapons systems and electronics.

  18. daretotread @ #1615 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 11:44 pm

    Bemused
    A question that I wonder about, not really grasping military strategy, but I sort of wonder whether bigger/complex always means better. It seems to me that the more the bells and whistles the more chance there is of something going badly wrong.

    That sort of question really has not much to do with strategy. More about capabilities of equipment.

  19. Bemused

    Not quite my point. Sort of like an new car – if the electronics fail so does to power steering and the car does not go -so many inter-related systems to collapse in a chain reaction.

    A few year ago I was running my little car with a broken electronic ignition key – key and battery/signaller had come apart. The car had started etc and I was driving along happily until the electronic bit fell on the floor. Stopped at lights and car would no go. Middle of very busy intersection. I had no idea what was wrong.

    I had to coast across this intersection (there was a slope) and got myself to a footpath. Quite proud of myself actually. But this was an issue entirely due to more complex electronic technology

  20. Uh, oh…

    He has called tobacco a “dangerous drug” and the single most preventable cause of bad health and death in Australia.

    So why does Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull still have a financial stake in two of the world’s biggest tobacco companies, 18 months after he promised to snuff out out his sharemarket exposure to cigarettes?

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-told-to-quit-the-cigs-after-stakes-in-big-tobacco-revealed-20161021-gs87em.html

  21. Dtt

    I sort of wonder whether bigger/complex always means better.

    On this bit the Russian ACC has Sukhoi Su-33 on board at the moment but they may be finding them both difficult to man and maintain at sea as they’ve apparently ordered 100 of the older Mig-29 Navy versions.

  22. daretotread @ #1619 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 11:56 pm

    Bemused
    Not quite my point. Sort of like an new car – if the electronics fail so does to power steering and the car does not go -so many inter-related systems to collapse in a chain reaction.
    A few year ago I was running my little car with a broken electronic ignition key – key and battery/signaller had come apart. The car had started etc and I was driving along happily until the electronic bit fell on the floor. Stopped at lights and car would no go. Middle of very busy intersection. I had no idea what was wrong.
    I had to coast across this intersection (there was a slope) and got myself to a footpath. Quite proud of myself actually. But this was an issue entirely due to more complex electronic technology

    The military run more than one piece of equipment and their systems have lots of redundancy and are very well maintained.
    A lot different to you running one car.

  24. Bemused

    You would hope so.

    Someone told be that at least for land warfare the Russian strategy is different to that of the US, Basically while they want systems that can be fixed in the field with a hammer and a screw driver, to avoid logistic problems of complex repairs.

  25. daretotread @ #1624 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 12:04 am

    Bemused
    You would hope so.
    Someone told be that at least for land warfare the Russian strategy is different to that of the US, Basically while they want systems that can be fixed in the field with a hammer and a screw driver, to avoid logistic problems of complex repairs.

    Try that with complex systems. And you need the spare parts.

  26. Bemused

    That is sort of my point. It a real battle situation, you really do not have time for repairs of complex systems. this means that you either have so many of the things that losing some does not matter, or you invest in logistic chains such that you CAN get spare parts and technicians in quickly.

  27. daretotread @ #1626 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 12:10 am

    Bemused
    That is sort of my point. It a real battle situation, you really do not have time for repairs of complex systems. this means that you either have so many of the things that losing some does not matter, or you invest in logistic chains such that you CAN get spare parts and technicians in quickly.

    There are various levels of repair.
    There are a lot of things simply repaired by replacement and the faulty unit may go back to a maintenance depot for repair.
    This is so in the civilian world too.
    I was booked on a plane once and it had a faulty engine. The engine was not repaired, it was replaced and no doubt repaired later and put into stock as a spare.

  28. Bemused

    Try that with complex systems.

    That’s what Dtt is saying they’d rather use simpler systems that can be fixed in the field where they can.

    On strategy and capability – often strategy is built around knowing the strengths and weaknesses of your manpower and weapons systems.

  29. ctar1 @ #1628 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 12:15 am

    Bemused

    Try that with complex systems.

    That’s what Dtt is saying they’d rather use simpler systems that can be fixed in the field where they can.
    On strategy and capability – often strategy is built around knowing the strengths and weaknesses of your manpower and weapons systems.

    You simply don’t do more than basic repairs or fit exchange units in the field.
    In WWII tanks were not repaired in the field other than maybe simple things. There were specialist recovery units which dragged them off the battlefield and they went back for repair where there were proper facilities. Made a big difference in North Africa.

  30. I was amazed a number of years ago when I found out just how many parts could be ordered to fix a laser printer that had a 20 cent micro-switch fail.
    Too bad, there were only 3 complete sub-assemblies that could be ordered! And they were not cheap.
    That is the way the world has gone. I have a friend who used to repair computer power supplies and monitors. Not any more. They are all throw away and get another because they are so cheap now and labour costs relatively high. Also there are parts that just aren’t repairable or economic to replace.

  33. Bemused

    I was booked on a plane once and it had a faulty engine. The engine was not repaired, it was replaced and no doubt repaired later and put into stock as a spare.

    This was the way it was done with Mirage 1110’s. When something other than a minor fault happened with a Atar engine at Williamtown replacement engines were on hand. The faulty engines were loaded onto Caribous and taken back to the GAF for investigation and mostly refurbished and sent back as ‘hot’ spares. Same from Butterworth using Hercs.

  34. On tanks in North Africa it was the distance they had to travel that caused most problems. The tracks and sprockets were cut to schreds by the sand and rocky areas so they became immobile and had to be taken back on low loaders.

  35. Bemused @ 11:42
    The new us destroyer puts me in mind of the USS monitor in the civil war. ugly! (if I can say so without being called misogynistic

  37. Of course there is a bit of a link with certain posters here being un- or underemployed and spending too much time here, posting so often they derail threads into Trump-style self-obsession. Totally not self-aware!

    Yes, they are mostly “grumpy old men”, which gives PB a “feeding time at the nursing home” feeling all too often.

  38. Of course there is a bit of a link with certain posters here being un- or underemployed and spending too much time here, posting so often they derail threads into Trump-style self-obsession.

    Yep. I agreed with a comment C@t made about certain commenters not having a life and simply spending all their time posting here. It’s bizarre, as she indicated.

  39. Motor Vehicle engine capacity and pollution:

    Downsizing engines has gone too far, admit car-makers

    Radical real-world fuel consumption tests will force car-makers to completely rethink their engine downsizing culture, says a new report.

    According to newswire Reuters, new fuel consumption tests — introduced in part as a knee-jerk reaction to Volkswagen’s Dieselgate emissions crisis — no longer favour the small-capacity turbocharged three- and four-cylinder petrol and diesels many car-makers have developed.

    Reuters says the problem is that where the small engines performed excellently in the old laboratory tests, the new real-world tests uncover higher levels of both CO2 and NOx because of increased use of the turbo.

    Other problems highlighted by the new tests are small engines overheating during evaluation. This then sees the engine’s ECU trigger the cooling system or a program of over-fuelling the engine, resulting in more fuel being used and unburnt hydrocarbons and particulates exiting the exhaust, increasing emissions further.

    Speaking to Reuters, IHS Automotive analyst Pavan Potluri said small-capacity engines “might be doing OK in the current European test cycle, but in the real world, they are not performing”.

    http://www.motoring.com.au/downsizing-engines-gone-too-far-admits-car-makers-104241/

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