The latest reading of my presidential poll tracker is rather a lot different from the last, which is about half due to a very substantial shift in the polls in Donald Trump’s favour since the beginning of last week, and half due to me changing what had been a very conservative smoothing parameter that was ironing out short-term volatility, including the recent turn to Trump. It so happens that Trump is now credited with narrow leads in most of the swing states, such that Clinton’s now modest lead on national voting intention is projected as an extremely tight outcome in the electoral college of Clinton 272, Trump 266. It wouldn’t surprise me if the model was overshooting in its present reading of the move back to Trump, which can be a difficulty when sharp reversals occur, but we should get more clarity on that score over the coming days. An interactive map display of the results can be viewed here, my paywalled take on the emails development can be read in Crikey here, and below is a trend chart followed by a state-by-state accounting of my projections.
| State | Margin | Swing | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Safe | 9 | |
| Alaska | Trump 11.2 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Arizona | Trump 2.2 | 6.9 | 11 |
| Arkansas | Trump 24.4 | 0.7 | 6 |
| California | Clinton 22.1 | 1.0 | 55 |
| Colorado | Clinton 2.0 | 3.4 | 9 |
| Connecticut | Safe | 7 | |
| D.C. | Safe | 3 | |
| Delaware | Clinton 17.4 | 1.2 | 3 |
| Florida | Trump 1.2 | 2.1 | 29 |
| Georgia | Trump 7.2 | 0.6 | 16 |
| Hawaii | Safe | 4 | |
| Idaho | Trump 22.1 | 9.8 | 4 |
| Illinois | Clinton 16.4 | 0.5 | 20 |
| Indiana | Trump 10.6 | 0.4 | 11 |
| Iowa | Trump 3.1 | 8.9 | 6 |
| Kansas | Trump 19.2 | 2.5 | 6 |
| Kentucky | Safe | 8 | |
| Louisiana | Trump 16.1 | 1.1 | 8 |
| Maine | Clinton 4.4 | 10.9 | 4 |
| Maryland | Clinton 32.6 | 6.5 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | Clinton 24.8 | 1.7 | 11 |
| Michigan | Clinton 5.5 | 4.0 | 16 |
| Minnesota | Clinton 6.6 | 1.1 | 10 |
| Mississippi | Safe | 6 | |
| Missouri | Trump 10.2 | 0.8 | 10 |
| Montana | Trump 16.2 | 2.6 | 3 |
| Nebraska | Trump 19.7 | 2.1 | 5 |
| Nevada | Trump 0.9 | 7.6 | 6 |
| New Hampshire | Clinton 3.2 | 2.4 | 4 |
| New Jersey | Clinton 10.6 | 7.2 | 14 |
| New Mexico | Clinton 5.8 | 4.4 | 5 |
| New York | Clinton 20.0 | 8.2 | 29 |
| North Carolina | Trump 0.6 | 1.4 | 15 |
| North Dakota | Safe | 3 | |
| Ohio | Trump 4.0 | 7.0 | 18 |
| Oklahoma | Safe | 7 | |
| Oregon | Clinton 5.3 | 6.8 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | Clinton 3.2 | 2.2 | 20 |
| Rhode Island | Clinton 21.2 | 6.3 | 4 |
| South Carolina | Trump 9.1 | 1.4 | 9 |
| South Dakota | Trump 14.8 | 3.2 | 3 |
| Tennessee | Trump 15.0 | 5.4 | 11 |
| Texas | Trump 8.0 | 7.8 | 38 |
| Utah | Trump 9.3 | 38.7 | 6 |
| Vermont | Clinton 24.7 | 10.9 | 3 |
| Virginia | Clinton 5.9 | 2.0 | 13 |
| Washington | Clinton 12.7 | 2.2 | 12 |
| West Virginia | Safe | 5 | |
| Wisconsin | Clinton 2.7 | 4.2 | 10 |
| Wyoming | Safe | 3 |
This is really baffling to me. It seems like Trump has done nothing to deserve this swing.
This is the republican base coming back to Trump, and some Clinton voters becoming disaffected. Remember you do not need to make voters switch sides in USA because of non-compulsory voting. You only need to deter theirs and motivate yours. It is why negative US campaigns are such an effective strategy. Convincing right wingers that yes, there is a giant conspiracy to elect a woman president and yes, their vote is needed to stop it, can be a winning lie. Recent events have played into it.
Of course the opposite may be true. There may be a giant conspiracy of partisan FBI stooges, Julian Assange, and Russian havking helping elect Trump. But in an era of partisan media, with both sides only getting their news from their preferred sources, right wingers may only hear that news as Fox tells it. Sad, but reality.
I think the polls are correct. There may be enough time for the email “storm” (is there even any wrongdoing?) to blow over and Clinton’s lead improve. But on these numbers she will still win, but with a reduced majority and possibly a hostile Senate. Governing for Hillary will not be fun. Yes, 40% of Americans do prefer a sexist, racist bore, as long as he is rich and white, to an intelligent woman.
Also thanks for the update and map William. Psephologically, it is interesting to compare your model and Nate Silvers’. Either way, Trump getting back in front in Florida and North Carolina is a big deal.
That leaves nine electoral votes unaccounted for. I think your map implies 273 to 265.
“Rather a lot”, Will?
Here’s some articles I found interesting.
Email Investigation explained:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-30/us-election-hillary-clinton-fbi-email-probe-saga-explained/7978206
Both Democrats and Republicans are united in their condemnation of the FBI director:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/10/comey-backlash/505925/
Especially in light of the fact that the FBI wouldn’t confirm the rumours of Russians being behind the DNC hacks or go into detail about the issue as it was supposedly too close to the election:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/31/fbis-comey-opposed-naming-russians-citing-election-timing-source.html
HYPOCRISY MUCH?
It is believed by one high profile democrat that the FBI has evidence of a link between Trump and the Russians.
http://reverbpress.com/news/harry-reid-accuses-fbi-director-comey-breaking-law/
But then again, Reid could be countering an unsubstantiated smear campaign with one of his own:
http://www.salon.com/2016/10/31/harry-reid-calls-on-james-comey-to-investigate-explosive-information-about-donald-trumps-ties-to-russia/
Many are calling on the FBI director to resign:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/10/31/fbi-director-james-comey-should-resign/10IGkgGMy5XKS6Zdw9Lz2I/story.html
Here’s how Trumps Anti-establishment image factors into all of this:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/31/heres-the-real-takeaway-from-harry-reids-letter-to-fbi-director-comey-commentary.html
HRC’s campaign now hammering the Trump / Russia connection hard. Unfortunately it only takes the suggestion of wrong-doing to smear HRC and a mountain of evidence to even begin to damage Trump.
I hope the new explosive revelations to come from Anthony Weiner’s laptop turn out to comprise hundreds of thousands more… weiner pics, and Comey is forced to explain this in great detail at a press conference.
That would be a fitting end to the election.
Clintons chance of winning the presidency is continuing to drop according to Five Thirty Eight, however the democrats chance of winning the senate is improving.
This is what happens when you nominate a Democrat who is horrendously unfit to be president. You create an opening for a destructive right-wing nationalist. Congratulations, “lesser of two evils” lightweights.
That would be the man you have been arguing in favour of, yes?