BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The gap between Labor and the Coalition widens in this week’s poll aggregate reading, on the strength of similar results from Newspoll and Essential Research.

Bit late with this one due to the distractions of last week, but the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records discernible movement to Labor after a period of stasis, with both Newspoll and Essential Research recording 53-47 leads to Labor. Labor is up three on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. Both pollsters produced leadership ratings this week, but they haven’t made much difference to the relevant aggregates.

bt2019-2016-11-09

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

560 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 12
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  2. When you’re currently in political trouble, make a non-specific announcement about a rail line that won’t be built for about a decade:

    A new rail line will run from Parramatta to Sydney’s CBD, with stops at Sydney Olympic Park and the Bays Precinct, to ease pressure on the city’s western line.

    The project will be largely underground and is expected to be up and running in about a decade…

    The government said it would determine the number and location of stations along the route ‘through consultation with industry and the community’.

    Speaking at a press conference at Sydney Olympic Park on Monday, Mr Baird said it was hoped construction on the new line would begin within five years.

    ‘We’re not in a position where we want to determine either the final cost or final timeline, but it is underway,’ he told reporters.

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/11/14/sydney-to-gain-major-metro-line.html#sthash.Fyo5Ds2y.dpuf

  3. Rex

    Have you noticed that the current 2pp (52.7 – 47.3) projected by Bludgertrack is IIRC exactly the same as what Rudd got when he thrashed Howard in 2007? And the number of projected seats for Labor (82) is just one short of what Rudd achieved.

    Which means that Shorten is currently on track to achieve a 27 seat turnaround since the 2013 election (14 already in the bank from the recent election plus another 13 more to come according to Bludgertrack). Even you would concede that’s not a bad effort wouldn’t you, especially from such an incompetent leader?

  4. https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/11/14/bludgertrack-52-7-47-3-labor-3/comment-page-8/#comment-2503162

    And

    https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/11/14/bludgertrack-52-7-47-3-labor-3/comment-page-8/#comment-2503163

    The Nexus Clause removable is politically unviable.

    The 1967 Parliament Referendum attempt was crushed, despite having the support of both the Coalition and the ALP and being at the same time as the not seriously opposed Aborigines Referendum. The main opposition was from the DLP (whose strength in Victoria explaining Victoria unusually voting more strongly against a referendum than Queensland and SA), the only serious minor party of the time.

    Now with non-big two parties across the spectrum, for whom Senate seats and power (allowing expansion of the HoR without expansion of the Senate gives a government with a HoR majority a greater chance of passing bills at a joint sitting) are vital, there are far more sources of opposition. I doubt it would even pass in NSW any more.

    Also completely abolishing the Nexus Clause would reduce the explicit constitutional minimum size of the HoR from as near as practical 72 (twice the minimum of 6 Senators per original state) to 30 (5 per original state) and this would potentially interfere with the proportionate representation of states in the HoR, thus it could require the referendum to pass in all states.

  7. Quick checkout wikipedia + Oz national anthem. New words. In case it changes before you get there, the words as they were 1 minute ago

    Verse 2
    Beneath our radiant Southern Cross
    We’ll toil with hearts and hands;
    To make this Commonwealth of ours
    Renowned of all the lands;
    For those who’ve come across the seas (unless by boat)
    We’ve boundless plains to share;
    With courage let us all combine
    To Advance Australia Fair.
    In joyful strains then let us sing,
    Advance Australia Fair.

  12. Rex Douglas
    Monday, November 14, 2016 at 5:38 pm
    vogon poet @ #406 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 5:27 pm

    Darn, channeling my inner Rex, if Shorten was any good Labor would have over 100 seats

    The people want a different ALP leader. It’s undeniable.

    I’m sure many of them are Liberal supporters Rex, who saw Shorten kick Turnbull’s arse four months ago to the tune of 14 seats and know he is going to do it again next time around.

    I’ll settle for the guy with the runs on the board. Prime Minister Bill Shorten has a nice ring to it.

  17. Boerwar

    On the subject of murderers, I wonder how many deaths have been caused by boat turnbacks and/or returning to country. There was a hint today that there have been quite a few.

  19. Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno · 6m6 minutes ago

    Tonight @channelten at 7.30pm The full CBS Sixty Minutes interview with Donald Trump.Hang on to your hats.

    The Donald is even more frightening when he speaks softly (because we know he carries a big stick).

  23. This is the last , I promise.

    Why pay money to have your family tree traced; go into politics and your opponents will do it for you.
    ~Author unknown~

  27. Monbiot

    If the dominant ideology stops governments from changing social outcomes, they can no longer respond to the needs of the electorate. Politics becomes irrelevant to people’s lives; debate is reduced to the jabber of a remote elite. The disenfranchised turn instead to a virulent anti-politics in which facts and arguments are replaced by slogans, symbols and sensation. The man who sank Hillary Clinton’s bid for the presidency was not Donald Trump. It was her husband.

    The paradoxical result is that the backlash against neoliberalism’s crushing of political choice has elevated just the kind of man that Hayek worshipped. Trump, who has no coherent politics, is not a classic neoliberal. But he is the perfect representation of Hayek’s “independent”; the beneficiary of inherited wealth, unconstrained by common morality, whose gross predilections strike a new path that others may follow. The neoliberal thinktankers are now swarming round this hollow man, this empty vessel waiting to be filled by those who know what they want. The likely result is the demolition of our remaining decencies, beginning with the agreement to limit global warming.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/14/neoliberalsim-donald-trump-george-monbiot?CMP=soc_568

  28. I heard a guy on the radio while I was making dinner (a very nice Chicken & Mushroom Risotto, if I don’t say so myself), from the Think Tank in America who advised Donald Trump on his Immigration policies during the election. He was being interviewed about ‘The Don’s’ likely reaction to the Australia-US AS deal.

    The guy said wtte that it was a nice try by Australia but the refugees are unlikely to be accepted. He made 3 very obvious points:
    * Why won’t Australia take it’s own refugees?
    * America prefers to take people who are in situations of immediate danger to their safety, and the refugees on Manus and Nauru are not that. They sought refuge from persecution and they have that. No persecutors whom they were escaping from in PNG or Nauru.
    * America has 11 million Illegal Immigrants (and that’s what he classed the Asylum Seekers on Manus & Nauru as), so they don’t really need to add to the numbers with any more from Australia. Australia should take them.

    Plus, he asked if Australia wanted some of their 11 million? ; )

  29. Nasty.

    John Kelly ‏@j2dk · 1m1 minute ago

    John Kelly Retweeted ASRC

    People on Manus & Nauru who ask about resettlement deal have been handed scraps of paper with a link to US immigration website. Omnishambles

  32. bemused
    #455 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 6:44 pm
    I suspect a self promise!
    Such good news from Lizzie regarding the adventures of Malcolm the sailors friend. 🙂

  33. KayJay

    I know you’ll understand my happiness today. Had my second colonoscopy and was declared clear. They don’t want to see me for four years!

  34. lizzie @ #458 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 6:57 pm

    KayJay
    I know you’ll understand my happiness today. Had my second colonoscopy and was declared clear. They don’t want to see me for four years!

    I cannot begin to tell you the joy you have given me. Oh! Now we begin to plan our excessive displays of “told you so’s” and “glad to see the end of youse lot” after the next federal election.
    Apart from that simply to carry on our lives in an ordinary (normally screwed up) way.
    You will not feel a sense of rejection on being told “we can do without you for four years”.
    I now begin to search for Nina’s love heart. ❤️ ❤ ❤️ ❤
    And a happy birthday and merry Christmas to you as well.

  36. Turnbull and his crew completely oversold the “deal” with the US and are now going to get the blow-back. What total absolute tools.

  37. lizzie @ #458 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 6:57 pm

    KayJay
    I know you’ll understand my happiness today. Had my second colonoscopy and was declared clear. They don’t want to see me for four years!

    Hahaha… well lucky you!
    I am booked in for my second on 28th Nov.
    It is the preparation that is tough. I slept peacefully through the procedure and felt no ill effects afterwards. No sensation at all.

  38. Lizzie,
    Phew! : )

    Every time I hear news like this I think how lucky we are to live in a country where the citizen’s health is a priority.

  39. Turnbull and his crew completely oversold the “deal” with the US and are now going to get the blow-back. What total absolute tools.

    This is what happens when the main political out come you strive for is a poll bounce, followed by predictable celebrations among your tame media pals that “humanity has broken out”.

    It will end in tears, like all the other Turnbull brain farts.

  40. C@Tmomma

    All my medical “experiences” this year have been good quality and I am very thankful for medicare.

    Bemused
    I wonder if men who can drink “pints” of beer find it easier to swallow the litres of mixture. I find it a real trial, as I think many people do.

  43. Haven’t logged in for a bit, nor followed the news, but it seems Turnbull’s amazing ability to turn everything to shit hasn’t lost any of its potency.

    Well played Malcolm, well played.

  45. lizzie @ #465 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 7:34 pm

    C@Tmomma
    All my medical “experiences” this year have been good quality and I am very thankful for medicare.
    Bemused
    I wonder if men who can drink “pints” of beer find it easier to swallow the litres of mixture. I find it a real trial, as I think many people do.

    Lizzie, I struggled with all the litres of mixture and just couldn’t get it all down.
    The effect was that my preparation was labelled ‘poor’ and that is at least partly responsible for my having a second procedure so soon after the first.
    This time, I will get every drop of it down no matter what! 😐

  48. From the link by Player One:

    Mr Turnbull also criticised the ABC for ongoing debate over the Racial Discrimination Act.

    The Government has set up a parliamentary inquiry into the laws to examine whether they impose any limits on free speech and to recommend any amendments.

    When asked whether this was a concern for everyday Australians, Mr Turnbull said it was the media who were focused on the law.

    “18C is talked about constantly on the ABC, constantly in what’s often called the elite media,” he said.

    “I’ve focused overwhelmingly on the economy.”

    18C is talked about constantly by the RWNJs in Turnbull’s party, Murdoch and fellow travellers. Of course Turnbull has absolutely no authority to tell Bernardi, Bolt, Murdoch et al to STFU.

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