BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The gap between Labor and the Coalition widens in this week’s poll aggregate reading, on the strength of similar results from Newspoll and Essential Research.

Bit late with this one due to the distractions of last week, but the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records discernible movement to Labor after a period of stasis, with both Newspoll and Essential Research recording 53-47 leads to Labor. Labor is up three on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. Both pollsters produced leadership ratings this week, but they haven’t made much difference to the relevant aggregates.

bt2019-2016-11-09

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

560 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  3. Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@PeterDutton_MP “The @realDonaldTrump administration will respect the fact that this is a very important issue to the Oz Govt (@ljayes)

    Sky News Australia
    34m34 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Immigration Minister @PeterDutton_MP explains why Donald Trump won’t kill the US refugee deal #TheLatest http://snpy.tv/2g9mWgL

  4. Good evening all
    The big take out for me today is how agitated Mr Tunbull gets at even the slightest examination of detail relating to his AS deal.

    He does not like it at all and he is getting very snappy at everyone atm. He either has some thing to hide about the AS deal or else it has been rushed through with little thought or planning put in place.

    If pushed I would punt on the second. A rushed anmounceable to get headlines but with little planning designed, with the legislation re visas , to gain political points against labor.

    The liberals cannot help themselves.

    Cheers.

  5. bemused
    #470 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 7:39 pm
    The preparation mixture is revolting.
    I have a couple of 1 litre bottles specially for the mixture.
    What I find helpful is to have a supply of very cold fluids.
    Water can get boring, so keep a variety of clear liquids on hand. On the day before your colonoscopy — when you’re restricted to clear liquids — you can have popsicles, Jell-O, clear broth, coffee or tea (without milk or creamer), soft drinks, Italian ice, or Gatorade. But take nothing with red, blue, or purple dye.Aug 11, 2015.
    An air of determination is required and a sharp watch on the clock. Drink the stuff at intervals – she shorter the better – first the prep – then the gatorade or similar.
    I’m sure you know all this, just force yourself. 🙂
    I feel good knowing I won’t have to go through this for two years. Hoorah for me! 😆

  6. DOYLEY – This government has also rushed out the “deal” to try and lock in the US. I don’t think you push the Donald around like that.

  10. If Turnbull & Dutton have announced a resettlement plan that is not truly “in the bag” it will go down as a desperate and disgraceful act.

  12. [Antonbruckner11
    Monday, November 14, 2016 at 7:52 pm
    DOYLEY – This government has also rushed out the “deal” to try and lock in the US. I don’t think you push the Donald around like that.]

    I think Turnbull and Dutton were greatly spooked by Trump’s election win and are now in a panic to try and get the whole deal finalised before Trump is sworn in. It seems there is no Plan B involving other countries as alternatives to the US.

  14. Anton,

    Good point. Poor Ol’ Mal cannot take a break.

    Perhaps his depressed look during QT the other day when Julie Bishop showed him the election results was more about his great plan going down in flames flashing before his eyes.

    Interesting times as Bill a Shorten and labor just get on with life.

    Cheers.

  15. Waffler gently chides Sales …… “it is the elite media like ABC who are pushing the 18C issue”. Jerk trying to mislead everyone.

  17. I would have also thought that if it has taken this government a whole year to get this far the yanks (even Obama’s administration) really don’t want to be a part of it. It has also become very evidence that throughout Tone’s reign absolutely nothing was done and it was only when Mal became PM that the issue was even put on the agenda.

  21. Will someone please tell the Teflon One from the West who Sales just interviewed.

    She is too busy to go back one page and read Player 1 @ 7.36pm.

  24. Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Monday, November 14, 2016 at 8:20 pm

    If the USA refugee deal falls through, I reckon Fizza will have to bring them here.

    Or perhaps he has some influence in the Cayman’s?

  25. Australia’s renewable energy sector hit a record in October, with 21.7% of electricity in the national electricity market coming from renewables, according to the latest Cedex report.

    That represents the biggest proportion of any month since the data was made available by the Australian Energy Market Operator in 2005, according to the report from the engineering consultants Pitt&Sherry and the Australia Institute.

    The high proportion of renewables contributed to a drop in emissions from the national electricity market – 0.8% less than a year earlier, meaning they had returned to May 2014 levels.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/14/renewable-energy-made-up-a-record-217-of-australias-electricity-market-last-month

  27. PO:

    I don’t normally watch either. Was just curious as to who the govt had let out to do ‘serious’ media on the swap deal. It makes sense that it’s the PM, after all he’s the one with so much vested in this.

  28. “it is the elite media…”

    Remind me again who started their own Internet, ie media company again? And speaking about ‘elites’, who lives in a Harbourside Mansion in Sydney that is far grander than the official Prime Ministerial residence, Kirribilli House?

  29. If the USA refugee deal falls through

    They’ve been careful to craft it as a one off which means they don’t have to worry about an incoming Trump POTUS who is highly likely to renege on it. They just need to get the deal in place before Trump’s inauguration.

  31. the official Prime Ministerial residence, Kirribilli House

    You mean the Lodge. But yes, even Turnbull’s Sydney residence is more opulent than the Lodge which was in need of repairs during Gillard’s time there.

  33. the official Prime Ministerial residence, Kirribilli House

    I should have added, ‘when in Sydney’. But even if you add The Lodge and Kirribilli House together, they wouldn’t add up to the Pink Palace in Point Piper.

  35. Sky News Australia
    54 mins ·
    Former Chief of Staff Peta Credlin has called on Labor leader Bill Shorten to support the lifetime ban on resettled refugees #auspol

    Troll.

  36. kayjay @ #505 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 7:50 pm

    bemused
    #470 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 7:39 pm
    The preparation mixture is revolting.
    I have a couple of 1 litre bottles specially for the mixture.
    What I find helpful is to have a supply of very cold fluids.
    Water can get boring, so keep a variety of clear liquids on hand. On the day before your colonoscopy — when you’re restricted to clear liquids — you can have popsicles, Jell-O, clear broth, coffee or tea (without milk or creamer), soft drinks, Italian ice, or Gatorade. But take nothing with red, blue, or purple dye.Aug 11, 2015.
    An air of determination is required and a sharp watch on the clock. Drink the stuff at intervals – she shorter the better – first the prep – then the gatorade or similar.
    I’m sure you know all this, just force yourself. 🙂
    I feel good knowing I won’t have to go through this for two years. Hoorah for me! 😆

    Mate, I will just take water. Nothing else.
    I want this to be my last for a long while.

  44. A long read from the British Guardian, but worth it if you are interested in the art and artifice of political communication:

    From Donald Trump’s triumphant slogan to the Brexiteers’ ‘take back control’, political discourse is saturated with powerful images or ‘frames’. Should the left fight fire with fire – or will that make things even more toxic?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/13/make-america-great-again-why-are-liberals-losing-the-war-of-soundbites?CMP=twt_gu

  48. Bemused

    Mate, I will just take water. Nothing else.

    Does water do a proper job ? I’ve had 4 due to family history. YAAAAY doc said eff off for 5 years last time. The prep drink is truly THE worst part. The greatest reason for not having one . Quite interesting watching the ‘scope’ footage. I remain alert(sort of) but not alarmed 😆 . No memory loss period.

  49. poroti @ #573 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:36 pm

    Bemused

    Mate, I will just take water. Nothing else.

    Does water do a proper job ? I’ve had 4 due to family history. YAAAAY doc said eff off for 5 years last time. The prep drink is truly THE worst part. The greatest reason for not having one . Quite interesting watching the ‘scope’ footage. I remain alert(sort of) but not alarmed 😆 . No memory loss period.

    The last time I was done the full length.
    Gastroscopy, Colonoscopy and then had to swallow a capsule camera to do the bit in the middle week or so later when the first 2 didn’t find anything much.
    They were looking for internal bleeding as I had inexplicably become anaemic.
    I saw some of the pics from the camera capsule. Interesting, but didn’t tell me much.

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