Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings bounce back from recent lows, amid an otherwise stable set of readings from Newspoll.

Via James J, tomorrow’s Australian brings us another result showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 38% (steady) and Greens 10% (steady). For some reason, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have recorded an uptick, with approval up four to 34% and disapproval down four to 54%, but lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged, shifting from 42-32 to 43-33. Bill Shorten’s ratings are unchanged at 36% approval and 51% disapproval. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1846.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,599 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. CTar1

    A consistent way to keep what is sacrificed against what is usable is a challenge that is not required by other than govt lawyers.

    But what does that (and by ‘that’ I’m referring to quote above) actually mean?????

    You obviously know what you are saying, but it’s meaningless to anybody else. Are you Bernard?

  2. The other big question is whether Barnaby is now in the process of effectively destroying “coalition” govt.

    Of course. I said the day he took the leadership that Turnbull bending over to be shafted by the Nats and the Loons would only end badly for him. Those dopes need someone with half a brain to rein them in. And the thing is they respect it. They might chafe at it, but in essence they are pissants. They love nothing more than a dominant alpha to put them in their rightful place. If Turnbull had stomped on them and said you clowns got us in this mess, stfu and let me get us out of it they’d have fallen into line.

    But by caving Turnbull has let them go completely off reservation and they don’t care because they don’t respect him. They’re too stupid to know that they’re cutting their own throats. The Murdoch echo chamber will tell them how good they’re going. It’s simply too late for Turnbull to take control even if he ever was strong enough to do it (he wasn’t). Now everywhere he looks an imbecile who should have been kept on a tight leash is publicly exposing what a rabble of nutters and grubs this government is and what a pointless spineless buffoon their leader is. He can’t even mildly rebuke any of them because any move will bring the whole house of cards down. He can’t sack Brandis, he can’t shut Dutton up, and he can’t stop giving in to of Barnaby’s demands, each more demented than the last.

    It could still all come to grief next week, that’s how shit this pack of dickheads are at even the most basic elements of governing. But even if Turnbull gets to Christmas his problems aren’t going away, they’re not reducing, and they’re not plateauing. Eventually that final straw will drop and the barely contained chaos will be unleashed.

  3. Kezza

    I’m certainly not ‘Bernard’ or anyone else who is known.

    The flaws in old C’wlth Acts are known better by the the C’wlth its self than any other practitioner.

    Many times the temptation to win one loses many others.

  4. And yes Labor played a blinder tying Xenophon to the Coalition and the MDB crap. But good God they were dealt a hand full of aces. You can see why plenty of the less stupid Nats wanted to keep Barnaby away from the leadership. The dope’s mouth works 1000x better than his brain (such as it is).

    It’s not like the stupid bastard couldn’t have waited until after the end of the sitting to announce he was going to screw SA. X would have huffed and puffed about how he’d been dudded, but by next March it would have long been chip wrappers. Turnbull must wonder how he got lumbered with such imbeciles. Which just shows his own lack of self awareness. Almost all of his problems are self inflicted due to his basic lack of purpose or leadership.

  5. RATSAK – Well said. And, as Doyley said – the Nats are a lot more worried about One Nation than being good “coalition” partners. Unfortunately, though, I just don’t see the mechanism which causes it all to collapses.

  6. A R
    Friday, November 25, 2016 at 4:10 pm
    Why oh why was there no Parliament QT today? I would have tuned in to watch the fireworks.

    BECAUSE: It’s put out the rubbish Friday, doncha know.

    And because our well-paid reps can’t/won’t work on fridays, despite urging everyone else to contribute to the economy; as well, they need to catch flights home on Thursday evenings, and pretend they aren’t having affairs in Canberra to their long-suffering spouses.

  7. What a stupid ignorant fool:

    SBS News ‏@SBSNews 3m3 minutes ago

    Reef is fine, Hanson says after turning up 1000km from bleaching

  8. Another stupid ignorant fool, Brandis:

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 5m5 minutes ago

    Brandis’ week:
    – said LNP are “very very mediocre”
    – revealed he tried to cut a deal in HC case
    – guy he announced as dead is arrested alive

  9. CTar1

    Thanks, but you implied, earlier, that there was more to this than meets the eye.

    And, despite your knowledge of flaws within the “old C’wlth Acts”, do you really think that Brandis behaved within the “law”?

  10. ag0044 @ #1373 Friday, November 25, 2016 at 3:06 pm

    I can see!

    All to do with pagination going back to 50 comments per page.
    Some found like you did that posting a comment took you to the latest page whereas you probably had a page number ahead of the comments so didn’t see any comments.
    I found a more circuitous route to the correct page.

  11. When a government minister engages in questionable or even corrupt conduct, the ABC frames the story as ‘Labor has stepped up its attacks on the government over…”. As they just did now during a break in the cricket regarding Brandis.

    This allows them to dismiss the issue as just the opposition complaining. If only Labor would just let Turnbull and his government continue in their incompetent and contemptuous way.

    I would prefer they report on the issue as it is rather than framing it in such a fashion.

  12. Thanks PhoenixRED.

    Keating is spot on as usual.
    “In the case of the ABC news, if you want to watch a good news service, watch SBS news, which tells you what’s happening in Iraq, what’s happening in the US election, what’s happening with Donald Trump,” Mr Keating said.

    “What you get on the ABC is: ‘A truck has just overturned on the Pacific Highway’. It’s like in the 1970s. The ABC is letting Australia down in terms of news presentation.”

  13. kezza2 @ #1381 Friday, November 25, 2016 at 3:15 pm


    Sack him Turnbull. Who gives a toss if your PMship rides on his support. He’s not worth it, and you need to at least have some semblance of integrity. Guess this will fall on deaf ears, though. As you have no integrity yourself.

    Yes, I don’t think Mal is a regular PB lurker or associates with anyone who will tell him of your views. 😀

  14. Unfortunately, though, I just don’t see the mechanism which causes it all to collapses.

    You won’t see it until it happens. Then it will be obvious how it had to happen that way in hindsight.

  15. RATSAK – Your right. I was sort of thinking that. Maybe a leadership spill in which the “losers” decide to pull down the govt

  16. Nick Xenophon won’t deal with any legislation until Murray Darling issues resolved

    South Australian senator says ‘we need to sort out this water mess’ before party will consider other government bills

    The move will send shock waves through the Coalition as it scrambles to pass legislation before parliament rises on Thursday. Legislation yet to pass includes the backpacker tax, the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) and the Vocational Education and Training bills to clean up dodgy student loans.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/25/nick-xenophon-wont-deal-with-any-legislation-until-murray-darling-issues-resolved

  17. It seems the Nationals / LNP are not finished with Turnbull just yet.

    George Christensen will be the next cab off the rank this weekend and put pressure on the government over the Paris Climate agreement. First Barnaby and now George. Interesting times.

    More coming later today.

    Cheers.

  18. ‘When a government minister engages in questionable or even corrupt conduct, the ABC frames the story as ‘Labor has stepped up its attacks on the government over…”. As they just did now during a break in the cricket regarding Brandis.’

    Exactly – I think that they gave that story to the work experience girl. Apart from the Labor complaining angle, the rest is just assorted quotations from the West Australia.

    Our ABC: Mediocrity at its finest*

    *With a few exceptions, and getting fewer.

  19. WOW …. JUST WOW !!!! breaking news….. BIG BREAKING GUVMINT NEWS…
    Aussie terrorist who was announced dead some bloody time ago has handed himself into Turkish Authorities. This is just breaking news BUT APPARENTLY HE HANDED HIMSELF OVER TWO BLOODY WEEKS AGO.
    Gee I wonder if this BIG BREAKING TERRORIST NEWS was released now because just maybe Mals Mob might be in a tad bit of strife with Good old George Brandis SC QC, and of course Barnaby upsetting X and the now X is telling the Guvmint to go and get …
    HANG ON WE HAVE A BLOODY TERRORIST.

  20. Roberts insists he only believes the evidence of his own observations, and then goes off looking in the wrong place. Who chose the reef?

  21. I love the way that whenever Mark Kenny tells us how well the government is travelling, turning the corner etc, things just get worse!

  22. ths is a good one from a Sky news journo

    Ashleigh GillonVerified account
    ‏@ash_gillon
    However bad your week was, spare a thought for George Brandis #mediocrecolleagues #bellgroupyarn #prakashisalive

  23. jeffemu Friday, November 25, 2016 at 5:13 pm

    WOW …. JUST WOW !!!! breaking news….. BIG BREAKING GUVMINT NEWS…
    Aussie terrorist who was announced dead some bloody time ago has handed himself into Turkish Authorities. This is just breaking news BUT APPARENTLY HE HANDED HIMSELF OVER TWO BLOODY WEEKS AGO.
    HANG ON WE HAVE A BLOODY TERRORIST.

    ***************************************
    Naw …… he heard **The Donald** was going to bomb the shit out of him and his ISIS mates …. and he wants to find out if Eric Forester will come out of his coma – so he gave himself up ….

  24. Pauline, Brian and Malcolm, but no Rod:

    EMBATTLED senator Rod Culleton has skipped a planned One Nation love-in on the Great Barrier Reef in the latest sign of a growing rift in the party.
    One Nation leader Pauline Hanson headed to Queensland with fellow senators Malcolm Roberts and Brian Burston on Friday.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/culleton-skips-party-meeting-in-latest-sign-of-one-nation-turmoil/news-story/b77a04668e4f652fddd96bf930f90b28

  25. When they say ‘breaking news’, they must mean falling apart, because that TERRORISM stuff is more than 2 weeks old, as has been pointed out.

    Expect it to be lead item on certain ‘news’ programs tonight.

  26. If I had to make a guess it will be Brandis simply being unable to be carried any longer. 6 months ago they might have been able to shove him onto the Federal Court bench, or a cushy diplomatic post and be done with him. But he’s very close to the point where those options simply don’t fly. Even this pack of arseholes would struggle to make an appointment for a guy who has serious questions of corruption as well as competence hanging over him.

    But the converse is that Brandis simply has zero self awareness of what a complete liability he is. Same deal as Bronnie. When he simply can’t be carried any longer he’ll believe he’s been done wrong and go looking for revenge. Turnbull could easily find himself in a catch 22 situation where he can’t sack Brandis without precipitating a chain reaction that destroys him, he can’t offer him a sinecure he’ll be happy with because he’s too much damaged goods, and he can’t keep him because his utter impotence would be so badly exposed the vultures couldn’t be kept from the carcass.

  27. This is remarkable. Smith and Khawaja are batting together, scoring runs and turning the strike over. This means the Australian score is ticking over and South Africa are having to work for a wicket.

    It’s almost like some kind of partnership or something.

  28. I love the way that whenever Mark Kenny tells us how well the government is travelling, turning the corner etc, things just get worse!

    Kiss of Death Kenny. It’s like clockwork.

  29. Ratsak

    Turnbull could easily find himself in a catch 22 situation where he can’t sack Brandis without precipitating a chain reaction that destroys him, he can’t offer him a sinecure he’ll be happy with because he’s too much damaged goods, and he can’t keep him because his utter impotence would be so badly exposed the vultures couldn’t be kept from the carcass.

    There was a story I posted a week or two ago (can’t find it now) that Brandis is going to resign, and then the government will appoint him to the High Court.

    Sounds ridiculous enough to be true.

  30. jeffemu @ #1428 Friday, November 25, 2016 at 5:13 pm

    WOW …. JUST WOW !!!! breaking news….. BIG BREAKING GUVMINT NEWS…
    Aussie terrorist who was announced dead some bloody time ago has handed himself into Turkish Authorities. This is just breaking news BUT APPARENTLY HE HANDED HIMSELF OVER TWO BLOODY WEEKS AGO.
    Gee I wonder if this BIG BREAKING TERRORIST NEWS was released now because just maybe Mals Mob might be in a tad bit of strife with Good old George Brandis SC QC, and of course Barnaby upsetting X and the now X is telling the Guvmint to go and get …
    HANG ON WE HAVE A BLOODY TERRORIST.

    Steady, don’t get too excited.
    It seems he was captured by or handed himself into the Turks 2 weeks ago.
    Do you know when they notified the Australian authorities?
    For all I have seen revealed, it may have taken the Turks 2 weeks to figure out who he was, despite their techniques of ‘persuasion’.

  31. Negative gearing drives wedge between Libs

    The federal government has refused to budge on negative gearing despite a push by the NSW Liberal government for more to be done to ease housing affordability.

    NSW Planning Minister Rob Stokes broke ranks with his federal colleagues on Friday, accusing them of succumbing to “Canberra culture” over the issue.

    “We should not be content to live in a society where it’s easy for one person to reduce their taxable contribution … while a generation of working Australians find it increasingly difficult to buy one property to call home,”

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/focus-on-your-job-cormann-tells-stokes/news-story/4c34fa4eee757c4e906522ab380f84a0

  32. It seems the Nationals / LNP are not finished with Turnbull just yet.

    He asks to be kicked, so they kick him. Ministers in the Senate hid in the toilet to avoid voting the government line on the Adlers. Even Abbott wouldn’t have suffered that sort of shit. Gillard at her most under siege never had to suffer that sort of shit.

    This bozo is just helpless. A complete victim to any torment his internal enemies wish to inflict on him. They daily hand him a shit sandwich and he bites and swallows and weakly pronounces ‘mmmm tasty’.

    It’s almost got to the point where it looks like Turnbull is pinning his survival on having enough of his own side fearing not having him to kick around anymore. That’s about the only reason his Prime Ministership has for being anymore.

  33. Mark Kenny said on The Drum that the Feds had decided early in the year that they would never budge on Neg-gearing, so that they could hold the states responsible for housing shortage.

    All these arrogant fools want is a political ‘victory’, never the good of the country.

  34. There was a story I posted a week or two ago (can’t find it now) that Brandis is going to resign, and then the government will appoint him to the High Court.

    Sounds ridiculous enough to be true.

    I’ve no doubt at all that’s what Brandis wants and he’s even deluded enough to think he’s worthy.

    But as more and more of his dirty laundry is exposed even a tribunal job like Fair Work would be too controversial to appoint him to.

    Again Turnbull’s dithering has burnt him. If he’d recognised Toad was such a huge liability early on (not the sort of insight requiring special powers) he could have sent him away with Hockey.

  35. Labor’s recent tactics indicate their primary target is Barnaby Joyce. The next election will be won in places he draws popularity, justified or not.

    BP Tax and MDB have been timely issues in this fight.

  36. Re Negative Gearing, I heard Kelly O’Dwyer this morning. She and other Government spokespeople would have us believe that ‘battlers’ use negative gearing to supplement their meagre earnings, that worthy people like nurses and emergency workers own negatively geared properties.

    OK, let’s take them at their word. Let’s limit negative gearing to those with incomes under $80,000. That is gross income before deducting interest on investment properties and before other “tax planning” measures. We could further limit it to a list of “worthy” occupations like nurses and emergency workers, but not bank executives and property developers.

    There. Problem fixed, billions saved (https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-qanda-does-the-government-spend-more-on-negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax-discounts-than-on-child-care-or-higher-education-61009). Far more productive than attacking the meagre benefits paid to the unemployed, the sick and the disabled.

  37. All these arrogant fools want is a political ‘victory’, never the good of the country.

    Problem for them being that whilst WA will go Labor soon, NSW will still be Lib until 2019 and they’ve shown they aren’t going to keep wearing the heat for the housing bubble to keep Turnbull and his idiot crew sweet.

    So now again Turnbull has screwed himself. By going Abbott on Neg Gearing and Cap Gains he’s painted himself into a corner where he can’t take the heat out of prices to allow things to settle in Sydney and Melbourne. All the commentary is now firmly on the side of blaming these distortions. So he’s praying that by some miracle price growth in Sydney especially will flatten out without prices collapsing.

    If growth remains unsustainable the pressure to cave on Neg Gearing and Cap Gains will just grow and grow with the deterioration of the Budget adding extra spice. If housing collapses in Sydney forget it, we’re in recession and the blame will be completely on Turnbull and Morrison. He could so easily have stolen most of Labor’s policy on this at the last election and bullshitted about how the insignificant changes he was making to their plan turned it from a disaster to a winner. He would have looked stronger, more like a leader and policy driven, and probably won fairly easily in the end.

    Instead he took the low road (as he always does) and gave himself more problems in the long run.

  38. Neil Prakash (the not so dead Terrorist) is having a big run on News24 right now.
    24 is promising more to come.
    ‘Bemused ‘- they also stated that Aus agencies notified the Turks that they believed Prakash was attempting to enter Turkey – so yes they (the Aus Agencies) would of known of the taking into custody etc.

  39. HANG ON WE HAVE A BLOODY TERRORIST

    Quick, someone tell Dutton what ethnicity his grandparents were so that he can rail against them for siring terrorists!

  40. Seriously, negative gearing is the classic “aspirational” issue. The Liberals will never substantially reform it, the nation will continue to subsidise real estate speculation through the tax system to the extent of billions because too much of the Coalition’s constituency benefit from it. Mainly the wealthly, but also not a few on what might be described as “high average” incomes who can stretch to property investment. Of course they’re helping price their kids and grand kids out of the home market but, whatever, the Liberals also stop brown people on boats on talk tough on stuff they don’t like, so it’s all OK. Then of course you’ve got the not so wealthy “aspirationals” who hope get get in on it all some day.

    It’s doubtful that Labor would ever have the guts to tackle it properly. The heart rending shrieks of agony and towering rage of special interests, their astroturfed groups and media and political allies will be fearsome, declaring the ‘reforms’ the most monstrous injustice since the Mining Tax, Pokie Precommitment, the Carbon Tax and the Slaughter of the Holy Innocents. The economy will collapse, they’ll say. Unemployment will soar to triple figures. The Moon will turn to blood and the sky will fall. Property speculators will starve in the streets.

    Negative Gearing has to be reformed, with appropriate phasing in so as not to unduly punish those who invested in good faith. But it will be a ‘courageous’ Government that does it, and I don’t see any in the offing.

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