Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

What will presumably be the last Newspoll of the year adds to impression given by other pollsters of slight movement to the Coalition as the year draws to an end.

More evidence that the Coalition is ending the year in a very slightly better position than it’s been in over the past few months, this time courtesy of Newspoll in The Australian, which records Labor’s lead narrowing to 52-48 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. The Coalition now leads 39% to 36% on the primary vote, after a 38% draw in the last poll, with the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32% and up one on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 34% and steady at 51%. Turnbull holds a 41-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 43-33 in the last poll. The accompanying report has further results on the salience of jobs, asylum seekers and same-sex marriage as political issues. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1629.

UPDATE (Essential Research): After a week at 51-49, Essential Research moves back a point in favour of Labor, who now lead 52-48. The most interesting aspect of the primary vote is that One Nation have gained a point to reach a new high of 8%, with the Coalition down one to 38%, and Labor, the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 36%, 9% and 3%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions records approval ratings for senior government ministers, which finds Julie Bishop to be by far the government’s most popular figure, with 52% approval and 23% disapproval. Christopher Pyne, Barnaby Joyce, Greg Hunt, Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison more or less break even, but George Brandis has a net rating of minus 8%, and Hunt records a particularly high “don’t know” rating.

A “party trust to handle issues” question records a slight deterioration across the board for the Coalition since August, the biggest mover being “controlling interest rates”, on which their lead has narrowed from 12% to 7%. On a series of “party best at looking after the economy” questions, the Coalition has an 11% lead over Labor on “handling the economy overall”, but a less helpful 33% lead on “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests”, with nothing separating the parties on “handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class” and “handling the economy in a way that helps you and people like you the most”. Also canvassed: voluntary euthanasia, Gonski funding, climate change, and where we go when we die.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,249 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Six Newspolls in a row behind for Malcolm. Mal’s lead in the PPM cut to nine points. Shorten must be beginning to cut through eh Rex’s?

  3. … Malcolm Turnbull ends the year with his support as Prime Minister falling to its lowest level since he seized power.

    “Seized power…” – feel the Love.

  4. Six Newspolls in a row behind for Malcolm. Mal’s lead in the PPM cut to nine points. Shorten must be beginning to cut through eh Rex’s?

    But but but just imagine what position an even better leader would be in!

  5. bushfire bill @ #3 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 11:36 pm

    … Malcolm Turnbull ends the year with his support as Prime Minister falling to its lowest level since he seized power.

    “Seized power…” – feel the Love.

    Since I spent the evening with Tony Bourke, I will say he is “gornnnn”!
    Tony was in fine form and it was a hilarious 5 & 5 presentation from him.

  6. The Eurozone needs to be dissolved and governments need to reclaim their responsibilities to promote societal wellbeing:

    there is no doubt the Italian banks are in terrible shape and while Italy remains it the Eurozone it is largely helpless to do much about it.

    The successful No vote (by a huge margin) brings together the odds and sods of Italian politics who in noted cases hold views that are the anathema of any progressive agenda. But this group is the only anti-Euro voice in Italy.

    That is tragic really. It is unfortunate that the more mainstream socialist Left parties are not leading the way in advocating the abandonment of the euro. But then, they drank the neo-liberal poison long ago and at that point ceased to be a voice for progressive policy.

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=34906

  11. Tony was in fine form and it was a hilarious 5 & 5 presentation from him.

    Another St Pat’s Strathfield Old Boy. So incredibly tall, too.

  13. bushfire bill @ #11 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 11:51 pm

    Tony was in fine form and it was a hilarious 5 & 5 presentation from him.

    Another St Pat’s Strathfield Old Boy. So incredibly tall, too.

    Yes, he is tall, but not exceptionally so.
    The function was organised by my local member, Julian Hill, and Tony was the guest. Interesting how well supposed factional enemies get on so well together and obviously share a mutual respect. I have been told this is the case for the whole of caucus and it augurs well for the future.

  14. Yes, he is tall, but not exceptionally so.

    Maybe it’s because I am not tall at all. Craig Emerson is another St Pats tall-boy. So is Johnny Brogden.

    Tom Kenneally and I skulk like small, vulnerable mammals, taking care to stay out of the way, living in hollow logs and only coming out after dark at Old Boys’ functions to meet the big guys.

  16. Tom Kenneally and I skulk like small, vulnerable mammals, taking care to stay out of the way, living in hollow logs and only coming out after dark at Old Boys’ functions to meet the big guys.

    The big guys at my alma mater are Chris Reason and George Brandis… oh and this guy:
    http://www.news.com.au/sport/olympics/joshua-robinson-competes-for-australia-with-undeniable-swagger/news-story/a9f55b7ea0e1132ee4282c76b9d8881b
    who is a properly big fella, and a really nice guy too.

  18. Bushfire Bill

    Supervet is one of my favourite programs, too, with its mixture of compassion and technical expertise. I do wonder how much pet owners pay for their individually modelled, 3D printed spare parts.

  19. Rod Culleton Wants Pauline Hanson To ‘Have A Pooey Or Get Off The Pot’

    Breaking up stinks — especially for Rod Culleton.

    The One Nation Senator let it hit the proverbial fan on Monday, ending the parliamentary year by announcing he is reconsidering his political allegiances and acknowledging the rift between himself and party leader Pauline Hanson over her failure to back his push for a banking royal commission.

    “Pauline has got to have a pooey or get off the potty and either start supporting rural and regional Australia through this Royal Commission or things will start to fester,” Culleton said on Monday, confirming “there is a rift in the party”.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/12/04/rod-culleton-wants-pauline-hanson-to-have-a-pooey-or-get-off-th/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Sydney is streaking ahead of most of the rest of Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/gap-between-sydney-and-the-rest-of-nsw-widens-after-citys-fastest-growth-in-15-years-20161205-gt464m.html
    Bernardi with a call to arms to his fellow Luddites.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/one-of-the-dumbest-things-ive-ever-heard-coalition-conservatives-furious-over-climate-review-20161205-gt4avc.html
    Peter Hartcher is worried about Trump’s Taiwan folly.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-australia-must-steer-clear-of-donald-trumps-taiwan-folly-20161205-gt4115.html
    Now Trump picks Ben Carson, who proved himself to be useless and quite strange in the Republican debates, to run Housing and Urban Development. Trump is assembling quite an Administration is he not?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-chooses-ben-carson-to-lead-us-housing-urban-policy-20161205-gt4m1g.html
    Things are hotting up inside the ABC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/if-they-dont-like-it-they-should-leave-tensions-escalate-between-abc-management-and-staff-20161205-gt47na.html
    Is iodine deficiency a contributor to poor learning of Aussie children?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/a-simple-solution-to-lift-the-performance-of-australian-school-children-20161205-gt43ci.html
    Clancy Yeates tells us that banks should “lean” on the housing bubble.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-central-banks-should-lean-on-housing-bubbles-20161204-gt3x2d.html
    Susie O’Brien implores the Victorian parliament to make sure the terminally ill are not denied a dignified death. Google.
    /news/opinion/susie-obrien-old-hs/state-government-must-make-sure-terminally-ill-are-not-denied-a-dignified-death/news-story/bcb57a06371c3d10daf10ef777586f16
    Al Gore sees a big fight on climate change coming up with Trump.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/05/al-gore-climate-change-threat-leaves-no-time-to-despair-over-trump-victory
    Victims of CBA’s financial planning continue to emerge.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cbas-financial-planning-compensation-bill-rises-as-new-victims-emerge-20161205-gt45lj.html

  21. Section 2 . . .

    An increase in inventories played a big part in the last GDP figure. Could this be deferring a contraction measurement? Google.
    /news/economy/wholesale-restocking-may-have-kept-the-economy-afloat-last-quarter-20161205-gt4ecz
    The Nats are all getting a bit shitty and snaky over the Adler shotgun outcome.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/05/adler-shotgun-restrictions-come-from-the-smashed-avocado-curtain-say-nationals
    Congestion on the Tullamarine freeway if becoming untenable.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-aiport-begs-for-rail-link-warns-tullamarine-freeway-faces-gridlock-20161205-gt4hnr.html
    This reinforces what I said the other day about the LandCare/Green Army funding and Morrison’s pea and thimble trick.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/06/experts-warn-against-axing-green-army-without-restoring-landcare-funding
    Michelle Grattan on Abbott’s “dismay” at the abolition of his Green Army.
    https://theconversation.com/abbott-dismayed-by-report-of-end-of-his-green-army-69887
    2016 – the year in which Turnbull nearly lost government.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/parliament-2016-the-year-in-which-turnbull-nearly-lost-government,9806
    Labor accuses Barnaby of taking advice from a celebrity gardener rather than veterinary experts.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/barnaby-joyce-listened-to-a-celebrity-gardener-over-veterinary-industry-experts-labor-20161205-gt44ik.html
    Australia’s departing Digital Chief unleashes a broadside in which he makes some telling points.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/departing-public-service-digital-chief-paul-shetler-says-level-of-contracting-in-aps-is-eye-watering-20161205-gt46y7.html
    Michael West says that now ASIC is on the job with PHON’s Culleton.
    http://www.michaelwest.com.au/corporate-watchdog-now-on-the-sniff-for-rodney-culleton-too/
    How public hospital patients are being stung to watch free to air TV.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2016/12/05/tv-services-public-hospitals/
    Equality is what the gay community wants. That’s all.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/what-the-gay-movement-really-wants-not-to-change-society-but-to-take-an-equal-place-in-it-20161205-gt41lk.html

  22. Section 3 . . .

    This will be a meeting of minds! Google.
    /national-affairs/foreign-affairs/one-nation-senator-malcolm-roberts-to-meet-trump-advisers/news-story/14d23224511c303f7ec08a74c7240991
    Michael West on the insanity of the $1b Adani loan proposal.
    http://www.michaelwest.com.au/the-charge-of-the-lignite-brigade/
    How Italy has become Europe’s “sick man” of this century.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/2016/dec/05/italy-euro-economy-competitiveness
    Pat Conroy writes that we can’t bank our future on Turnbull’s climate change magic pudding.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/05/we-cant-bank-our-future-on-malcolm-turnbulls-climate-change-magic-pudding

  23. Following the discussion on PB re pumped hydro – here is an example of a disused gold mine in North Qld which will be up and running by end of next year.
    There will be around 1 billion invested in large scale renewable projects – kick started by ARENA. They will create 2,300 direct jobs and thousands of indirect ones.
    (A lot more than the Carmichael mine which is potentially attracting a similar amount of money.)
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/kidston-solar-farm-set-construction-chalking-win-arena-88051/

  24. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    MUST WATCH! – Hugh Parkinson’s Christmas Barflies video.
    https://youtu.be/pgA4B3VwPfo
    Nicholson nails the gullible Greens.

    David Rowe has drawn a good cover for the Walkley magazine.

    Cathy Wilcox and DIY democracy.

    Ron Tandberg and the preservation of decorum in the House.

    David Pope has Turnbull taking to the air in his ScoMo chopper.

    Alan Moir has created a Christmas board game for Turnbull.

    Mark Knight on John Key’s retirement.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/1a03942e39f5655a3bd742378620116f?width=1024
    Jon Kudelka on Green Army black ops.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8ac629caa1c27cbfe89513e77db1b46f

  25. Actually that torture approval percentage is relatively low (which is disturbing in and of itself). Polls sometimes show plurality support in the US.

    The stupid thing is that the premise is false, torture sucks for extracting new, accurate information its great for getting people to agree to whatever the hell they think you want to hear though.

  27. 52-48 to Labor. Bill Shorten slowly pulling ahead of Malcolm in the NetSat stakes. Slowly, slowly catchee Better PM monkey. Not bad, not bad.

    Next year is the key though to unlocking the doors of The Lodge in 2018 for Bill. As the Newspoll screams out in neon lights, people want a steady job and they want growth in the economy. How do you get growth in the economy? The simplest way is to get growth in wages.

    So the Labour Hire firms who have a stranglehold on the easily exploitable unemployed need to have a broom put through them. They are ensuring that these people get very low wages for very hard work. And their reach and influence in the workforce is increasing.

    The wholesale importation of 457 and 417 Visa workforces has to stop.

    People who work in Service Industries must not be paid a Servant Wage.

    The Minimum Wage must go up regularly and meaningfully.

    Labor must develop a wholistic policy suite to address these issues. As we know that all the Coalition are offering is more Worker exploitation.

  28. ‘The wholesale importation of 457 and 417 Visa workforces has to stop.’

    What a strange definition of wholesale! 457 visa holders account for 0.84% of the total workforce.

  32. What a strange definition of wholesale! 457 visa holders account for 0.84% of the total workforce.

    Yes but you know what I mean. When a company imports a swathe of IT programmers and coders from India, and Aussie programmers miss out on the jobs, that has to stop.

    When a company outsources it’s bread making to other countries, and Aussie Bakers lose their jobs. That has to stop.

    When a company imports a workforce to build infrastructure, and Aussies lose out on the jobs. That can’t even start.

    The importation of overseas workers supposedly on Student 417 Visas to work as virtual slaves on farms, rinse and repeat. That has to stop.

    It may only be 0.84% now, but we have to nip it in the bud before it becomes the norm.

  33. “It’s not critical. We have obviously applied for it because it’s available,” he told Fairfax Media. “This is something that governments of all political persuasions have done in the past and I assume will do in the future. It doesn’t necessarily mean it’s make or break for the project.”

    Mr Watson emphasised Adani was a very large global company and had recently announced a $200 million solar power plant near Whyalla and a 100-150 megawatt plant in Central Queensland’s Moranbah.

    “There’s a certain degree of naivety about the size of this company and the dollars that it has at its own disposal,” he said.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/its-not-critical-adani-says-it-doesnt-even-need-controversial-1-billion-government-loan-20161205-gt425r.html

  34. Overall, the politics of carbon reduction has become a farce, with Mr Frydenberg telling the ABC on Monday: “We want to hear from the experts, as to the lowest cost of abatement.”

    But experts thrashed out those arguments a decade ago! They published pivotal reports such as the Stern Review in the UK, or the Garnaut Review in Australia.

    Economist Ross Garnaut tackled what he called the “diabolical” policy problem, by creating Labor’s carbon price-setting mechanism, which included some of the carve-outs listed above.

    Moreover, 80 per cent of the revenue raised by that policy was returned as tax cuts and pension/benefit increases – resulting, as noted last week, in a per capita impost on Australians of around $34 per year.
    …
    But instead of trusting to either of those two approaches, we’ve ended up with a government that wants to “hear from experts” (again) to created a sector-by-sector plan (again), weigh up the impact on “jobs, investment, trade and households” (again) and consult with business and communities (again).

    Déjà vu doesn’t begin to describe the revolving door this policy area has now been caught in for a decade.

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2016/12/05/climate-policy-review-frydenberg/

  35. Trump’s stunt double
    ‏@canthavepudding
    Bernardi on #theBoltreport setting the table for the launch of his new party. Like a RWNJ Chicken Little, howling same ignorant BS. #auspol

  36. Malcolm and the Libs might tick up a bit in the polls now, as they usually do when they have their hands off the levers of power and absence makes hearts grow fonder. Then it will be back to the slow slide next hear. I think people have gone from thinking that his smile/smirk was buoyant to thinking it’s menacing.

  40. Morning all. Thanks BK! “Welcome back”. Lets hope its permanent.

    Interesting aside on Peter Dutton’s appalling comments on Lebanese muslims in Australia and the “mistake” of Fraser in letting their parents into the country. The migrant group with the highest crime rate in Australia (and it is much worse than average) are Sudanese, particularly South Sudanese. Who let most of them into Australia? John Howard. What religion are most of the South Sudanese? Christian (who were fleeing the Sudanese civil war against the muslim north).

    I wonder if Dutton will blame John Howard, border-security-man, for letting all these dangerous South Sudanese migrants into Australia, whose children form most of the “Apex gang” in Melbourne, because they were christian?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-04/young-south-sudanese-constantly-stopped-by-police/8078642?WT.ac=localnews_melbourne

    I hope somebody asks Dutton this question soon.

    Of course, I do not suggest deporting the South Sudanese. The problem was lack of migrant education and language programs for people who were essentially unskilled refugees when they arrived, leading to unemployment and disengagement. The solution is better resourced migrant education.

  41. …which is one of the reasons why we should stop directing the thrust of our educational efforts at children at the ‘upper levels’ of schooling and focus on ante natal education and pre school.

  42. Thanks BK
    Deja vue all over again -or why we need consistent climate and energy policy in this country, why the Coalition policies are bullshit, and why we need to switch off fools like Bernardi, Bolt and Abbott.

    The CSIRO said more than $100 billion of taxpayer money could be saved by encouraging households to take up solar and battery storage.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-06/csiro-backs-emissions-trading-scheme-to-reduce-power-prices/8094498

  44. This Alberici and the other ABC presenter seem to be sucking up to Guthrie and co at the ABC. I bet science programs like Catalyst appeal to younger much people more than worn out formats like Lateline and 7.30. She should watch the Feed on SBS 2 to see how it is done in the 21st C.

  45. Lizzie

    Overall, the politics of carbon reduction has become a farce, with Mr Frydenberg telling the ABC on Monday: “We want to hear from the experts, as to the lowest cost of abatement.”

    The experts have already told you Frydenburg, you wanker.
    e.g. This from those commie hotbeds of lefty radical greenies – the CSIRO and Energy Networks Australia
    CSIRO, networks put lie to conservative campaign against wind, solar
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/csiro-networks-put-lie-to-conservative-campaign-against-wind-solar-33831/

  46. Another comment on 457 visas. I believe they were intended to provide extra expertise in fields with insufficient qualified locals. In the remote areas, these often were well-paid qualified (?) technicians. Now they are used for cannon fodder, with the aim of reducing local pay rates and conditions.

  48. Sohar
    If the Pallashay -Turnbull Coalition go ahead with this mine they are going to have approximately 100,000 very angry protesters permanently camped on site. I can not see how it could go ahead with this level of resistance.

  50. Wildlife Obituaries ‏@WildlifeObits · Nov 30

    Join us & @cyclonewatson in saying goodbye to the Caspian tiger, one of the largest cats to have ever lived

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