BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016

A detailed view of the federal polling picture at state level, as the Coalition sags and One Nation soars in three states.

No sign of those Newspoll state polls that I hoped might enliven the silly season, and it’s still another week until Essential Research returns. So for your edification, I offer the following state-by-state accounting of where the federal polling picture stands at state level (except Tasmania, for which there has been literally no data at all since the election). This is based on 35 polls in all: 25 from Essential, with unpublished state breakdowns; eight from Newspoll, including the quarterly breakdowns); one from Ipsos; and a Queensland-only result from Galaxy. Note that “Q3” below refers to the third quarter result for 2016, i.e. three months ago.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,569 comments on “BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016”

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  1. colton @ #3496 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 9:06 pm

    Thanks to all those who have given me kind words of support about my poor grammar and spelling.
    I was probably a bit harsh in my reply to Bemused.
    I know his heart is in the right place.
    It is a problem that I know I have and I do try to be grammatically correct.
    The funny thing is I notice the same mistakes I make in my kids writing at times and am quick to pull them up about it.
    Perhaps I need to check and check again before I post a comment.
    Now, given all the free advice I’ve been given today would any PB parents out there know the correct way to answer the question my 9 year old daughter asked me this afternoon?
    “Dad, what’s an abortion?”
    I would of normally taken the easy way out and told her to ask her mum but she is at work.
    🙂 🙂 🙂

    I am easy going and wasn’t offended by your reaction.
    Tough question you ask, but kids these days get worldly at an early age and if her parents don’t tell her she could google it or ask her friends.
    What would you prefer?
    Does she understand pregnancy?
    If so then I would explain it in terms of a woman deciding she did not want to be pregnant and getting the process stopped before a baby had formed.
    That is simplistic and leaves out uglier details of late term abortions, but should suffice for now.


  2. Colton
    Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 9:06 pm
    ….
    “Dad, what’s an abortion?”
    I would of normally taken the easy way out and told her to ask her mum but she is at work.

    Ask your mom and stick to it.

  6. colton @ #3496 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 9:06 pm

    Thanks to all those who have given me kind words of support about my poor grammar and spelling.
    I was probably a bit harsh in my reply to Bemused.
    I know his heart is in the right place.
    It is a problem that I know I have and I do try to be grammatically correct.
    The funny thing is I notice the same mistakes I make in my kids writing at times and am quick to pull them up about it.
    Perhaps I need to check and check again before I post a comment.
    Now, given all the free advice I’ve been given today would any PB parents out there know the correct way to answer the question my 9 year old daughter asked me this afternoon?
    “Dad, what’s an abortion?”
    I would of normally taken the easy way out and told her to ask her mum but she is at work.
    🙂 🙂 🙂

    Oh! suseJ.
    When I worked in a Hospital Emergency department the nurses (most of them) became friends. The girls (women) would often talk of how they and their children would talk in ordinary ways about body parts.
    For instance Sha would say how her young @@ would point to hands, nose , eyes, china and etc.
    You get what I am saying. Of course, you dillo (dillo being KayJay).
    Your nine year old is smarter than you and vastly smarter than I am.
    You can (not I pardner) sit down with a cup of coffee, lemonade for your girl and explain that sometime when young women of an age a little more than your Mary become pregnant as a result of having sex with their husband, boyfriend ..
    Then you can go on to explain that becoming pregnant, where a child is growing in the womb, things can and do go wrong an abortion becomes necessary.
    You know what an abortion is (LNP or ON voter) the deliberate termination of a human pregnancy, most often performed during the first 28 weeks. (last from Doctor Google).
    Your girl will handle all this better than you. Don’t forget the obligatory hug and kiss. ❤ ❤ ❤

  8. Kay Jay,
    Bemused is being too kind to dtt. Her belittling comments often come before any abuse directed her way. Such as when I had the temerity to analyse one of her wild assertions repeated frequently and prove it to be utterly false, with links, she directed a mouthful of abuse my way and called my sources ‘rubbish’, when they were nothing of the sort. And waited until she thought I wasn’t around to launch her vindictive vendetta. So I returned in kind.

    However, as you seem to be ignoring what I have had to say, I don’t know why I’m bothering to reply. You just seem to be looking for reinforcement of your own preformed pov that dtt is the one being hardly done by. Plenty of others don’t believe that to be the case.

  9. Colton,
    Both parents should be around to answer such a serious question, in a thoughtful and well-considered manner, previously agreed upon between them.

  13. Is Sussan Ley around? The current advert in the margin of PB on my computer is for an apartment in a multi storey building. Unfortunately Sussan may not be interested as it’s here in Canberra. Still, does anyone else feel like making an impulse purchase tonight?

  15. KayJay
    I don’t think 9 year olds are smarter than adults, but they do know instinctively that a baby is a life in utero. They see the swelling tummies of females in their life/family and know that’s a baby and where it starts. Ads on TV, Internet etc.
    I don’t think 9 year olds would understand anything more than that. Indeed, I would be surprised they even thought about abortion at all unless an adult brought it to their attention.

  16. Pretty One,
    D. Trump has brought back Ford to America. If he gets Apple back too, he’s doing exactly what people want – revitalising manufacturing, looking after citizens’ jobs and economic circumstances.

    The truth of the matter is actually more complex than Trump’s simplistic nostrums and populist rhetoric crafted to appeal to the ‘Fly Over States’ who got him elected.

    I’ve just finished listening to a conversation between Thom Hartmann and Eamonn Fingleton, the Irish/American political economist who predicted Trump would win the Presidency back in Feb 2016.

    he made the obvious point that all the high grade silicon chips are made in Japan, or China. So Apple, for example, will find it very hard to justify and quantify relocating their Manufacturing plants back to the US because, if Trump starts a Trade War, by dragging companies back from Asia and/or imposing Tariffs on things produced outside of the US in an attempt to force it to be made there, then he will end up in a world of pain.

    Not to mention the fact that those countries he takes action against can take action against him by invoking the Investor State Resolution mechanisms.

    On top of that, Reince Priebus, Trump’s Chief of Staff, is great friends with House Speaker, Paul Ryan, and both are Free Trade ideologues. So they will want to stymie Trump!

    It’s a fascinating interview to listen to, if you’re interested:

    https://youtu.be/J8QPDdydC2c

  17. c@tmomma @ #3508 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 9:34 pm

    Kay Jay,
    Bemused is being too kind to dtt. Her belittling comments often come before any abuse directed her way. Such as when I had the temerity to analyse one of her wild assertions repeated frequently and prove it to be utterly false, with links, she directed a mouthful of abuse my way and called my sources ‘rubbish’, when they were nothing of the sort. And waited until she thought I wasn’t around to launch her vindictive vendetta. So I returned in kind.
    However, as you seem to be ignoring what I have had to say, I don’t know why I’m bothering to reply. You just seem to be looking for reinforcement of your own preformed pov that dtt is the one being hardly done by. Plenty of others don’t believe that to be the case.

    No. I simply think that it’s unnecessary. If you don’t like somebody, constantly telling them so can and does lead to violence and even murder.
    I am not your enemy. If you believe that to be the case there is probably nothing I can say or do to alter your opinion. I think you are a better person than perhaps you give yourself credit. You are not under attack.
    Why not put me on your STFU list?
    You think it imperative that I have the same opinion as yours. Why?
    I don’t know DTT or you. We are just pixels.
    As I have said on a previous occasion. Ignore me. Our individual or collective opinions are straws in the wind.
    I don’t read a lot of the posts. Some are just plain boring. Some interesting. Some amusing.
    Peace. Sister. Goodnight and good wishes.

  18. prettyone @ #3515 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 9:46 pm

    KayJay
    I don’t think 9 year olds are smarter than adults, but they do know instinctively that a baby is a life in utero. They see the swelling tummies of females in their life/family and know that’s a baby and where it starts. Ads on TV, Internet etc.
    I don’t think 9 year olds would understand anything more than that. Indeed, I would be surprised they even thought about abortion at all unless an adult brought it to their attention.

    Yes, the deafness story is the way to go.
    Wait for Mummy.

  20. GG
    “I hope some clever person puts Trump’ Inaugural speech to the sound track of “Dark Side of the Moon”.
    Good call GG. Brain Damage would be the obvious track for Trump’s inauguration. Pink Floyd’s The Wall would also go down well, as would Orange Crush (REM), Dylan’s Hard Rains are Gonna Fall, and Masters of War.

    But I would most love to hear Aretha Franklin belting out Respect at Trump while holding a pussycat, to give Trump the appropriate level of “respect”.

  22. Colton

    There are two types of abortions. Spontaneous and induced. Both result in the death of an embryo or foetus before it is able to survive independently.

    That should do the trick.

  24. I listened to BBC Business last night and they had an item on the impact of NFTA on Mexico. VW, which has a huge plant in Mexico and exports all over the world from there – including the US – pointed out that they shuffled spares parts to and from their Mexican plant to the one they have in the US. The spokesman for V dub became very tight lipped when asked to comment on Trump’s plan to flog a tariff on “imports
    from Mexico. Also, it was pointed out that tomatoes grown in Mexico – and sold to the US and Canada – would go out of business if some kind of tariff were placed on the exports. The question the stupid Americans have not asked themselves is whether they are willing to pay a factor of x 2 or x 3 for a pound of tomatoes and who in the US, other than Latinos, would be willing/able/stupid enough to work for less than $5 an hour in the US in the tomato industry. For certain, there will not be mass migration by white, middle-aged males, to where tomatoes are grown in the US.

  25. The chancellor, Philip Hammond, has suggested Britain could transform its economic model into that of a corporate tax haven if the EU fails to provide it with an agreement on market access after Brexit.

    Interesting threat. Kind of ridiculous given that the UK is already one of the worst corporate tax havens in the world, and is probably responsible for the worst tax havens like the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands.

    “You thought we were bad before …”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/15/philip-hammond-suggests-uk-outside-single-market-could-become-tax-haven

  29. jackol @ #3525 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 10:05 pm

    The chancellor, Philip Hammond, has suggested Britain could transform its economic model into that of a corporate tax haven if the EU fails to provide it with an agreement on market access after Brexit.

    Interesting threat. Kind of ridiculous given that the UK is already one of the worst corporate tax havens in the world, and is probably responsible for the worst tax havens like the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands.
    “You thought we were bad before …”
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/15/philip-hammond-suggests-uk-outside-single-market-could-become-tax-haven

    Any country that is a tax haven should be an international pariah and subjected to the harshest possible retaliatory action.

  31. Kay Jay,
    I’m not really up to answering all your questions and contentions but I feel I must before I retire for the night. Better that than leaving them hanging.

    Firstly, I hope you are willing to be even-handed in your assessment of who throws what around and where. And why.

    Secondly, why would I want to put you on stfu? You haven’t questioned my competency, my integrity or my conclusions. Quite the opposite!

    Anyway, similarly to Bemused, I’m not into censorship or shutting my mind to apposite points of view. So I very reluctantly put one person only on stfu. That’s probably where it will stay. I just don’t have the time or the inclination to waste on alarmist non sense.

    Plus, I agree with Mr Bowe, in that I have an ingrained reluctance to see this wonderful blog turned into an Antipodean Breitbart News. Or anything within a bull’s roar of it. So I am fighting them from the beaches, and on the pages of Pollbludger. 🙂

  33. Any country that is a tax haven should be an international pariah and subjected to the harshest possible retaliatory action.

    And you really have lost the economic argument for your country if that’s the best you can offer!

  36. frednk @ #3502 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 9:18 pm


    Colton
    Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 9:06 pm
    ….
    “Dad, what’s an abortion?”
    I would of normally taken the easy way out and told her to ask her mum but she is at work.

    Ask your mom and stick to it.

    I’m very receptive in class to answering nearly any question the kids put to me. Anything that gets their attention and stimulates a discussion in English is fantastic but there are limits.
    One day in one of my more advanced but younger classes (13-14 yo) the topic was prejudice. I was going through different types racism, sexism, etc when one of the younger girls raised her hand and asked,

    Barney, what’s orgasm?

    I apologised to her and explained that if I told her, I didn’t think the school or her parents would be too happy and if she wanted to know she should talk to her mum.
    🙂

  37. Tom,

    I agonised between that and DSOTM. went with the latter because it runs longer.

    But, go you good thing!

    Barry Maguire is a classic. Can bore you with his back story if required.

  39. BiS,
    <What's orgasm?

    BiS: Well, young lady, an organism is…
    Young Girl: No, what’s an orgasm?
    BiS: Well, if you know what it isn’t, then you must know what it is and you don’t need me to tell you! 😀

  41. Barney

    I did once get into mild trouble from a principal because I brushed aside a question on my sex life (from a student) with “You guys should get over your obsession with sex; it’s like the washing up, you’ve just done it and then you have to do it again.”

    My son, about ten, witnessed Something He Shouldn’t Have and asked me a question about it later. I said to him that I would happily answer it, but that he might be too young. He said it was up to him to make that decision, so I started with, “When your father and I…” — at which point he said, very hastily, that he WAS too young.

  44. c@tmomma @ #3533 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 10:22 pm

    Any country that is a tax haven should be an international pariah and subjected to the harshest possible retaliatory action.
    And you really have lost the economic argument for your country if that’s the best you can offer!

    It is just predatory behaviour and should be treated as such.

  46. c@tmomma @ #3539 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 10:32 pm

    BiS,
    <What’s orgasm?
    BiS: Well, young lady, an organism is…
    Young Girl: No, what’s an orgasm?
    BiS: Well, if you know what it isn’t, then you must know what it is and you don’t need me to tell you! 😀

    No, she genuinely had no idea. There were a couple of the older kids I spotted suppressing giggles but looking around the class everyone else was oblivious to what had happened. 🙂

  48. Barney, what’s orgasm?

    You can’t blame the kid. I’m sure there are many grown women who’d struggle to answer that one. 😀

  50. C@tmomma
    #3531 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 10:20 pm
    I would not want to ban anybody.
    I have no idea what DTT was writing about. I glanced at some of it an then gave it a pass.
    The same applies to the responses including yours. I don’t bother with them and mean no disrespect to anybody.
    My ambition is to wake up in the morning.
    I don’t recall writing against you.
    A few days the blog was chocked with what seemed an interminable to and fro of what seemed to me a complete load of codswallop. Absolutely boring to me.
    You don’t need my approval to write whatever you like, nor does anybody else. I don’t promise to read it and I don’t promise to agree with it either.
    I have plenty of opinions, many of them will prove to be wrong.
    I think you have placed me too high on the Poll Bludger Order of Metit.
    I place myself right at the bottom.
    If all the Poll Bludgers who disagreed with you or me left- who would you argue with. I would still tell silly stories to the Coles guy and the Post Office delivery girl and be happy doing it.
    Enough said. Goodnight all.

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