BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Sketchy though it is, the polling evidence so far this year suggests a turn for the worse for the Turnbull government.

BludgerTrack is being heavily determined at present by the two new year data points from Essential Research, but for what those data points are worth, they suggest the government may have entered a new phase in its polling fortunes. The latest result has wrenched two-party preferred almost a full point in favour of Labor, although this has only yielded a gain of one on the seat projection. The change is a straightforward result of Labor taking primary vote share off the Coalition, with One Nation failing to gain further ground for the first time in a while.

In other news, two by-elections loom in New South Wales:

• Mike Baird’s departure from the premiership and the parliament will result in a by-election for his seat of Manly. Labor is not competitive in the seat, which corresponds with Tony Abbott’s federal seat of Warringah, but it was held by independents for 16 years until Baird unseated David Barr in 2007. Potential Liberal preselection nominees identified in media reports include James Griffin, KMPG director and former Manly deputy mayor; Alex Dore, NSW Young Liberals president and management consultant; Natalie Ward, a private legal practitioner who relinquished a job as a political staffer in 2013 amid controversy over her marriage to David Begg, a co-principal of the lobbying firm associated with moderate powerbroker Michael Photios; Ron Delezio, founder of a hospital charity and father of Sophie Delezio, who suffered horrific injuries when a car crashed into a childcare centre in 2003; and Walter Villatora, a local party identity and advocate for preselection reform.

• The second New South Wales by-election will follow today’s resignation by Health Minister Jillian Skinner as the member for North Shore, ahead of her anticipated demotion to the back bench. North Shore neighbours Manly to the west, and is similarly solid in its conservatism. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Liberal preselection contestants may include Felicity Wilson, a former Property Council executive, and Tim James, former chief of staff to Energy Minister Anthony Roberts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,217 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. University student charged over deadly Quebec mosque terrorist attack

    FRENCH-Canadian man Alexandre Bissonnette, who is accused of orchestrating a deadly terror attack on a Quebec City mosque, reportedly dressed up as the Grim Reaper for Halloween – an ominous foreshadowing of the incident that was to come

    It’s also been revealed Mr Bissonette was a “right-wing troll” who took anti-foreigner positions and supported US President Donald Trump, local media reported

    http://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/police-arrest-two-men-over-quebec-city-mosque-terror-attack/news-story/1c146a64c77f88396a58305da808cee0

  3. zoomster @ #2193 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:39 pm

    I’m quite happy with my NBN satellite, but that might be a case of having low expectations to begin with…I don’t seem to experience any outages and it’s certainly faster than the old satellite service.

    18 “official” outage notifications from NBN Co so far this year. Also, I just noticed that each outage notification can contain up to 5 different planned outage times, and many of them do seem to contain more than 1 outage – 2 or 3 seems common. This would explain why I seem to get outages even on days when I have had no notification.

    So about 30-40 outages so far this year. And we are not even through January yet.

  7. “It’s also been revealed Mr Bissonette was a “right-wing troll” who took anti-foreigner positions and supported US President Donald Trump, local media reported.”

    I’m sure right wingers who support profiling will want all similar people rounded up for questioning 🙂

  8. P1,

    It’s like someone paying a subscription for a list of the 100 greatest hits of all time and getting a list of names with your name at the top.

  9. Marika Shaub ‏@marikatogo 2h2 hours ago

    The last Attorney General to be fired was fired by Nixon. Let that sink in for a while.

  11. adrian @ #2176 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:27 pm

    ‘Trump’s idiotic immigration bans are one thing. Of far more importance are his changes to the security instruments. Australia is now allied to an incipiently neo-Nazi, white-supremacist war-machine.’
    Exactly, I’m bored with Trump already. But the way these Trump apologists arrive like a demented tag team is quite uncanny.

    The Guardian articles on Trump or climate change get swamped by hard right ‘commentators’, and real quick too, typically they are among the first to comment. Almost any other article get very few in comparison.

    Nothing coincident or spontaneous about it. Definitely well organised psy-ops going on. Nothing original about their language or claims either, drearily predictable, and clearly designed to provoke.

    Fortunately, the regular commentators seem well aware of what is going on. Can only hope The G’s management are too.

    —————-

    Phillip Coorey ‏@PhillipCoorey 29m29 minutes ago

    Bill Shorten flags federal corruption watchdog

    Good. If Labor are serious about it, and prosecute the case properly, that alone will almost guarantee them the next election.

  12. phoenixred @ #2197 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:46 pm

    BK Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:34 pm
    player one @ #2172 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:26 pm
    “b.c. @ #2164 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:20 pm”
    “ I have the NBN and it’s good. But then my NBN connection is FTTP. ”
    “I have the NBN satellite and it’s crap. You could get more bandwidth using smoke signals.”
    What are you grizzling about? Aren’t you getting “up to” 100 Mbps?
    ****************************************************
    Telstra 4G network offers speed 10 times faster than NBN
    SYDNEY — Mobile internet has overtaken the NBN on peak speed, with Telstra today launching the world’s first Gigabit LTE network.
    In a media demonstration in Sydney, a computer connected to Gigabit LTE was put through several tests on speedtest.net, connecting to a non-Telstra server. The peak speed reached 886Mbps – showing it was capable of downloading data up to 10 times faster than the maximum a home user can reach on the NBN.
    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/telstra-just-launched-a-mobile-network-10-times-faster-than-the-nbn-2017-1

    That’s under laboratory conditions. In reality that bandwith will be shared among the users in a cell.

  13. Been a busy day for me but looking at the SMH when I came in to see this headline in bold print.
    “What sort of government is too cowardly to stand up to naked fascism? Ours”
    There can be no recovery for Mal, I can not recall a major media outlet in the past 50 years been so negative to a sitting PM. The LNP has to make a move if it is to limit the damage, with so many potential leaders to chose from should be no problem 😉

  14. Evening all.
    From page 2 of a free paper copy of the Australian, an article on the swearing in of our anew High Court judge Susan Kiefel.
    She is pictured with our attorney general.
    One of them is wearing a frock and a wig, and isn’t Kiefel.
    I’ll try to find a link.

  17. b.c. @ #2164 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:20 pm

    Player One Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:01 pm

    Jeez. You feel like throwing stuff at the screen and screaming about half way through. Way to piss off regional Australians who already have the NBN and know it is utter crap.

    I have the NBN and it’s good. But then my NBN connection is FTTP. 🙂

    I have fixed wireless NBN from activ8me, there is a rectangular antenna on the roof. It is nominally 25/5, more often 20/4, but it works very reliably indeed.

    It is ten times faster than the copper based adsl (something like that) which I had before, which fell over when it rained, and is one half the price. I’ve got VOIP phone service at very reasonable rates, but we may switch to mobile only pretty soon, which would be more economical.

    Suits me pretty well.

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