Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest Newspoll doesn’t quite replicate the Coalition’s relatively encouraging result a fortnight ago.

NOTE: Apologies for the ongoing situation with the formatting in comments. This is not intentional and the former state of affairs will be restored, hopefully soon.

The latest Newspoll result from The Australian moves a point back to Labor after an outlier result a fortnight ago, leaving its two-party preferred lead at 53-47. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition down a point and Labor up one, and both One Nation and the Greens are on 10%, with the former steady and the latter up one. Still waiting on approval ratings, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-29 to 41-32. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1708.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is steady on approval at 30% and up two on disapproval to 59%; Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 32% and down three on disapproval to 54%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

493 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Thanks BK. The former Danish PM was good on Q&A last night. Imagine if we had people like that here – public figures who were both politicians AND leaders!

  2. Turnbull’s tax cuts a fizzer while Abbott undermines the party again

    Well it wasn’t what was hoped for, and certainly not what was required; but it was better than nothing.

    That was the objective assessment of Malcolm Turnbull’s week – indeed, the entire Autumn session of parliament, perhaps even his whole political career.

    The new yardstick of the government is, it seems, near enough is good enough, or perhaps the mantra of the previous Labor firebrand but now convinced Murdochian Graham Richardson: whatever it takes.

    Thus vast amounts of political goodwill and taxpayers money were bargained away to Pauline Hanson (sugar) and Nick Xenophon (nominally energy but actually South Australia) to ensure the passage of a little less than half, in dollar terms, of the corporate tax cuts which formed the basis – if not the totality – of the national economic plan Turnbull took to the last election.

    Even in his own terms it is a fizzer

    The ratification of the extradition treaty with China, which was supposed to be Turnbull’s farewell gift to the visiting premier Li Keqiang,

    But Tony Abbott said he wasn’t happy abut it, and when Turnbull’s troops briefed journalists that Abbott had in fact promised to ratify the treaty himself, Abbott responded by leaking advice from his then department of Prime Minster and Cabinet warning against it. The Australian’s Greg Sheridan was apocalyptic, partly on his dear friend’s behalf and partly because that’s just what he does. But by then Cory Bernardi and the Liberal heavies were already openly revolting, so Turnbull performed a pre-emptive surrender, to the acute embarrassment of many of his cabinet colleagues and, presumably, the annoyance of the Chinese. Labor, which had always been consistently against ratification, gloated gently.

    Here, it is already clear that Turnbull and his tacticians are planning to spend their way out of trouble: housing and rental affordability will be the big ticket item, but there are bound to be plenty of other sweeteners on the way. And the bill? Yet to be totted up, but with the down payment of some $24 billion for the company tax cuts already signed off, it won’t be pretty, which means nor will be the debt and deficit.

    http://www.echo.net.au/2017/04/turnbulls-tax-cuts-fizzer-abbott-undermines-party/

  4. Morning. All

    Thanks BK for today’s offerings.
    And PhoenixRed for latest on the Trump imbroglio.
    Fess posted re Erik Prince meeting with Putin Confidant (he is sister of Betsy Devos who is Sec of Education for Trump).
    this tweet sums it up……

    in reply to @SethAbramson

    44m
    Seth Abramson‏ @SethAbramson
    President Trump has a PHONE and DIPLOMATS. The only reason to use an infamous criminal to secretly create a backchannel to Putin is treason.
    Embedded

  5. What’s the betting that the budget will include Xenophon’s one off payment, off set by a bigger – and permanent – slashing of pensioner entitlements elsewhere?

  8. vic:

    The Trump-Russia story has so many twists and turns and sub-plots. It seems every day there’s something new that comes out.

  9. From BK’s morning wrap:
    Public trust in the independence of the major audit firms to manage their conflicts of interest is once again in the spotlight thanks to a class action lawsuit against vocational training group Vocation Ltd and its auditor PwC. Michael West is on the job exposing auditors.
    http://www.michaelwest.com.au/tick-flick-pwc-embroiled-in-vocation-collapse/

    I’m a CPA and the public are 100% right not to have confidence in the independence of major audit firms. I’ve spend my career in heavy industry and have been though many financial report audits from the Big 4 and we have systematic problems with financial report audit, which are not the fault of any individual auditor or audit firm.

    Generally speaking, auditors are poorly paid relative to other accountants, graduates who do the leg work are sent to audit the work of substantially more experienced accountants, the management of auditors are spread too thinly and accounting firm has to balance the politics of the audit against their other revenue streams with the same client in tax and consulting (both more profitable).

    I could go on, but I have other things to do and I don’t want to cause any legal problems for William or Crikey.

  10. Fess

    Indeed there are. Wish it would be all dealt with soon before any serious long term damage is done.

    Meanwhile as has happened at regular intervals in Russia, a bomb has gone off in their subway. Hmmm……

  14. Good, will the Libs now runs campaign backed by the Murdoch gutter press to water down defamation laws?

    Somehow I doubt it.

  15. Katherine Murphy at the Guardian says a “slim majority” of Australians are in favour of an emissions scheme for power producers. Essential poll – 51% in favour (including 46% of COALition , 20% against and 29% undecided. I’d say a thumping majority of those who had a clear opinion favoured.

  16. PvO’s column makes the point that on current trends Turnbull willing reach the magic 30 number of Newspolls in 12 months, in the lead up to next years budget.
    I interpret it as he won’t face a challenge on that basis but will be seen as illegitimate.
    What will the Australian do? Cancel or postpone Newspolls?

  17. John R:

    Mumble reckons Turnbull won’t be leader beyond this year, so next year’s budget will likely be some other leader’s problems.

  19. I guess Morrison will be out and about today dismissing former CBA boss David Murray as a mad leftie in league with Labor and determined to destroy the economy and the hopes and aspirations of millions of Australians
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/tax-settings-need-to-be-examined-as-part-of-efforts-to-cool-housing-market-murray-20170403-gvc78x.html
    Seriously, when people like Murray start to question the tax breaks for real estate investment surely the Tories must wonder.
    There are none so blind as those who will not see.

  21. I sincerely hope that what we have now on the ever evolving blog tinkering is still in its infancy. No avatars or post numbers just to mention the basic minimum requirements. WTF !!

  22. A pleasant degree of schadenfreude from thinking about the fun Scrott and co. will be having trying to put together a Budget that won’t blow up the government.

  23. This new “format” (quotes indicating I think it’s accidental rather than planned) is saving me a lot of time. Previously I have sometimes wasted a lot of time reading all the chitchat on this site; now I see if there’s anything new from Will, read a few comments, think “Uh, ugly”, close the tab and do something more productive. Thanks, hopeless gerbils. Probably not what you were intending to achieve but it has its positive side. (Now I’ve logged in it’s looking better, but that in itself is cause for criticism – you may have to log in to post a comment but you shouldn’t have to log in to read it at its least worst. Migrate, William!!)

  28. Interesting news, on a number of levels —
    ‘Former Reith backer Greg Mirabella won country male vice president while both the Kroger and Reith forces had claimed metropolitan male vice president Greg Hannan was on their side.’

    1. The Mirabellas are Reith supporters.

    2. The Liberals obviously have a dearth of talent in the country (Greg Mirabella’s only claim to political experience is as Sophie’s husband. He couldn’t even get elected to local council).

    3. This is setting up one of the Mirabellas – I say Sophie, other locals say Greg – for a run for Indi at the next federal election.

  30. Rachel Maddow Rules Cable News After Beating Fox News For 3 Straight Weeks

    Rachel Maddow’s MSNBC show has now beaten Fox News’s The O’Reilly Factor for three straight weeks with younger viewers age 25-54.

    Rachel Maddow has both time and ratings growth on her side. America already gets its fill of sexual harassment and evil from Donald Trump. Bill O’Reilly has become redundant. What cable news viewers are craving is facts and truth. As long as Rachel Maddow continues to specialize in both, the sky’s the limit for her MSNBC show.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/03/rachel-maddow-rules-cable-news-beating-fox-news-bill-oreilly-3-straight-weeks.html

  31. Exactly what I was thinking.
    Hard to believe that this can’t be rectified if it was any sort of priority, but as you said, definitely has an upside!

  32. A Former Trump Adviser Met With A Russian Spy

    NEW YORK — A former campaign adviser for Donald Trump met with and passed documents to a Russian intelligence operative in New York City in 2013.

    The revelation of Page’s connection to Russian intelligence — which occurred more than three years before his association with Trump — is the most clearly documented contact to date between Russian intelligence and someone in Trump’s orbit. It comes as federal investigators probe whether Trump’s campaign-era associates — including Page — had any inappropriate contact with Russian officials or intelligence operatives during the course of the election. Page has volunteered to help Senate investigators in their inquiry

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/alimwatkins/a-former-trump-adviser-met-with-a-russian-spy?utm_term=.wjQnp8q8B#.ivP2vbRbV

  33. Now the reply function doesn’t work any more, and no (even approximate) time stamps.
    Jack A Randa is right though – it does have an upside in that one tends to spend so much less time here since it’s become so dysfunctional.

  34. Blackwater founder met in secret with Putin associate as ‘unofficial envoy’ for Trump: report

    Erik Prince, the founder of the security firm Blackwater, which provides training for the U.S. military, met with a Russian operative with close ties to President Vladimir Putin as an “unofficial envoy” for Donald Trump, the Washington Post reports

    On Jan. 11, Prince met with the Russian in the Seychelles Island to try and “establish a back-channel line of communication” between Putin and Trump. Prince had no formal role with the campaign, but he donated $250,000 to the president’s 2016 campaign. He is also the brother of Betsy DeVos, whom Trump tapped to be his Secretary of Education.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/blackwater-founder-met-in-secret-with-putin-associate-as-unofficial-envoy-for-trump-report/

  36. PhoenixRed

    The noose is well and truly getting tighter. No wonder Trump is going on a Twitter rant.
    Meanwhile, this gives a good overview of the Alfa bank server in Trump Tower and what is was doing

    Claude Taylor Retweeted

    35m
    Louise Mensch‏ @LouiseMensch
    YOU MUST READ THIS #AlfaBank #FISA #TrumpRussia #Daughtergate (link: https://teapainusa.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/data-patterns-suggest-trump-towerspectrum-health-ran-a-stealth-data-machine-with-russia/) teapainusa.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/dat…
    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA
    TONIGHT AT 7:00 EDT! Tea Pain pulls back the curtain on the inner-workings of Jared Kushner’s “Stealth Data Machine!” Don’t miss it!

  37. Here’s some good detailing of what a nasty piece of work Erik Prince (and his Blackwater gangsters) is and more on the UAE, where Prince now lives, and The Seychelles where Prince met Putin contact wrt establishing a ‘back channel’ between Russia and Trump, the essentials of which seem to be getting Russia to pull back from Iran.

    Back Channel seems as good an expression as any.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/blackwater-founder-held-secret-seychelles-meeting-to-establish-trump-putin-back-channel/2017/04/03/95908a08-1648-11e7-ada0-1489b735b3a3_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_no-name:homepage/story&utm_term=.b199345ce5a1

  40. Surely the time is nigh for Trump. The intell agencies need to wrap this up asap before Trump proceeds with a false flag

  41. victoria
    PhoenixRed

    The noose is well and truly getting tighter. No wonder Trump is going on a Twitter rant.
    Meanwhile, this gives a good overview of the Alfa bank server in Trump Tower and what is was doing

    ***********************************************

    Another day – Another revelation … when is this death by a 1000 cuts going to end

  42. Ditto.

    I get to the first “more” button and remember I have better things to do.

    This is a seriously stupid state of affairs. I was a Crikey subscriber for many years. I have wanted to rejoin, but I am damned if I am going to give them any money while the main part of the site I visit is not only a clusterfuck, but one that is getting worse with every “fix” or – and I can’t believe this word actually gets bandied about – improvement.

    If you want to see the colour of my money once more, Crikey, FIX THIS UP ASAP.

  44. Ah, the Black Prince. Brings back ‘fond’ memories from back in the day in Iraq where he thought his goons in Blackwater could just shoot to death any ‘raghead’ who got in the way of their Humvee.

  45. Sophie and Greg Mirabella. The Belinda Neal and John Della Bosca of Victorian Liberal politics. Some stains you can just never get rid of. 🙂

  46. I honestly am starting to think Mr William Bowe has no say whatsoever as to the format his blog takes.

    So it looks like we are going to be stuck with this cold ice blue thing with no avatars and bupkis functionality. 🙁

  48. You have to feel sorry for William in all this – one of the best political blogs in Australia, brought low by a bunch of technical incompetents. Traffic on his blog has dropped massively since the change, and the longer it goes uncorrected the more likely it is that many of the regulars will find alternatives, and never come back to either PB or Crikey.

  50. There are some photo stunts, no lots of photo stunts, that a prime minister should not be involved in.
    This is just the latest.
    Lack. Of. Dignity.

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