BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

A recalibrated BludgerTrack records a big swing to Labor in Western Australia, and a smaller but even more consequential one in Queensland.

There are finally some interesting developments to report from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, although they have nothing to do with the headline reading on voting intention, of which the only point of interest is that One Nation has lost its lead over the Greens. Rather, there has been an important change to the way state breakdowns are calculated, which only now is being determined on the basis of trend measures of each state’s results since the previous election, since a fairly substantial number of data points is needed before such measures can be meaningful. In particular, the crude averaging that was being done before was obscuring the big move to Labor in Western Australia amid the backwash of the state election there. It was also dampening the swing to Labor in Queensland, while amplifying it slightly in Victoria and South Australia. The new figures result in a haul of extra seats for Labor on the seat projection, reflecting in particular the richness of marginal seats in Queensland, and the relative paucity of them in Victoria and South Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,083 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  3. Wakefield

    [ Tony Abbott has come up with a 5 point plan to stop Bill Shorten becoming PM, make better government etc. That seems unnecessarily complex for the champion of 3 word answers. Keep it simple Tony – “Make me PM” is the answer to all the issues. ]

    Abbott is making a preemptive grab for the position of Opposition Leader. It’s the only job he’s qualified for.

  5. Good Morning

    I don’t like Abbott one bit but he has crystallised the reason Turnbull has sunk so quickly in the polls.

    Of course what Abbott does not say is that the policies Turnbull supported when he was the leather jacket Turnbull are the ones the public supports.

    Abbott has belled the cat on why Mr Shorten will most likely be our nexxt PM and why the LNP is going to be in a world of trouble for years.

    Policies count.

  7. c@tmomma @ #24 Monday, April 17, 2017 at 8:11 am

    Socrates,
    Border security is not a real defence issue, just as refugees are not a real threat to anything other than our supply of low-skilled jobs.
    Bit blinkered in your perspective there, sunshine.
    Firstly, I think that stopping refugees from coming to Australia by boat has been an unalloyed good. There are no more People Traffickers cramming asylum seekers onto unseaworthy boats (though in the Mediterranean these days they just put them on giant inflatables and forcefully push them out to sea with a gun goodbye). Goodness knows how many are not drowning at sea, nor being dashed against the rocks of Christmas Island. Plus they haven’t gone away and Labor will take more genuine refugees, not just economic asylum seekers looking for a quick way into Australia to take our, increasingly hard-to-get low-skilled jobs.

    I find the economic refugee arguement very, very tiresome. Have you ever traveled on a ship other than through tropical waters during the dry season? I have, and nobody who wasn’t completely stupid and acting with an utter disregard for their life would commence a journey like that on whatever piece of shit vessel a people smuggler had organised for them if they had another choice.

    If someone has money, then they have options, and they wouldn’t be getting on an unseaworthy vessel for a several thousand kilometer voyage through the Indian Ocean with the intent of thowing themselves at the mercy of whomever happened to find them at the other end of the trip.

    We’ve created a lot of the refugee problem by starting wars in the middle east (Iraq, Afghanistan), or by turning a blind eye to other people starting wars or engaging in other attrocities against their domestic population (Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh etc).

    Having created the preconditions for a refugee crisis, then ended up with a refugee crisis, we now need to deal with the problem, not lock desperate people up on Pacific Island shitholes.

  8. trog sorrenson @ #37 Monday, April 17, 2017 at 8:37 am

    The other statement, frequently made by Adani spruikers, that the coal will reduce emissions in India because it is of higher quality, is questionable. Adani is planning to export a low energy/ high ash product to India. The coal in the Galilee Basin is of inferior quality to other Australian sites, which is the reason it has not been opened up earlier.
    So the Indians will be getting the inferior product, out of the two coal products Adani plans to export from a mine that is already an inferior source.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-03/adani-plans-to-export-low-quality-coal-to-india-report-says/8409742

    Trog,
    There are plenty of existing coal mines in Australia that are currently on care & maintenance, and are up for sale for a song. Do you or anyone else know why Adani doesnt just buy one of these mines?

  9. What does rank hypocrisy from a pathological liar look like?

    ..this:

    “People are fed up with MPs saying one thing and doing ­another, he says, warning the situation is so dire, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten “could soon be in The Lodge”.

    In a direct attack on Mr Shorten — and a thinly veiled swipe at Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull — Mr Abbott says: “People are sick of politicians that are more talk than action and are especially sick of politicians who change their policies to suit their political convenience.”

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/tony-abbotts-five-point-plan-to-regain-voter-trust/news-story/a01d87cc533db2c69d0d4776f1be55f5

  12. JFC …

    Hopes of finding survivors under a collapsed rubbish dump in Sri Lanka are fading as anger builds among residents who say their concerns were ignored.

    The death toll from Friday’s collapse in the capital Colombo has risen to 26, including six children, the army says.

    The 300ft (91m) high pile of rotting debris shifted after floods and a fire, destroying dozens of homes.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39615025

  14. c@tmomma @ #42 Monday, April 17, 2017 at 8:50 am

    Socrates,
    Trying to hang your pro boat-borne asylum seeker hat on the Iraq War issue is disingenuous in the current circumstances. Just as disingenuous as those boat-borne asylum seekers from Sri Lanka still claiming to be refugees from their civil war when it ended years ago and the country has elected, twice, a healer not a fighter as President. The same goes for Afghan, Iraqi and Iranian asylum seekers, unless they are from persecuted minorities. Their wars are over now, except for the attempt to rout ISIS, and so there is no need for them to come to Australia any more. Their countries have governments, maybe not perfect but functioning, and there are plenty more refugees in need of our help who are fleeing current conflicts.

    Lets have a look at what DFAT think about Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran. DFAT advises do not travel for the first two, and exercise a high degree of caution in Iran. Looks like they are not so safe after all. I take your point with Sri Lanka, there doesn’t seem to be a problem there.

    http://smartraveller.gov.au/Countries/asia/south/pages/afghanistan.aspx
    http://smartraveller.gov.au/Countries/middle-east/Pages/iraq.aspx
    http://smartraveller.gov.au/Countries/middle-east/Pages/iran.aspx
    http://smartraveller.gov.au/Countries/asia/south/Pages/sri_lanka.aspx

  18. I’m still at the in-laws and suffering the diabolical FTTN situation that has been forced on them. Their connection is “up to” 25/5. As I have a keen interest in the NBN I’ve been monitoring the connection speed here periodically. Yesterday evening they had actual speeds of about 2.5/4.5 – uploading was actually faster than downloading.

    I’ve just rerun the test and they are currently getting 23.57/4.78 at 07:31.

    I’m tempted to ask my father in law to tell me again what a great job the Nationals do for everyone down here.

  20. poroti @ #60 Monday, April 17, 2017 at 9:18 am

    KayJay
    I hope the bear is not one of those hibernating ones

    Take two after removing your emoji. CTL A and CTL C almost mandatory before submitting. Hold on to your hat.
    The Gravatar will be up soon.
    Brown bear is a deep thinker. The uninitiated bear watcher may think that he is asleep. This is part of his mystery. His pirate outfit is, of course, a disguise and we are left to wonder who he is when not in his “Superbear” persona.
    Very kind of you to bring this to my attention.
    (っ◔‿◔)っ ♡ ≧◔◡◔≦
    and no, I remain clueless as to what the little “thingies” mean.

  22. markjs @ #59 Monday, April 17, 2017 at 9:17 am

    What does rank hypocrisy from a pathological liar look like?
    ..this:
    “People are fed up with MPs saying one thing and doing ­another, he says, warning the situation is so dire, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten “could soon be in The Lodge”.
    In a direct attack on Mr Shorten — and a thinly veiled swipe at Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull — Mr Abbott says: “People are sick of politicians that are more talk than action and are especially sick of politicians who change their policies to suit their political convenience.”
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/tony-abbotts-five-point-plan-to-regain-voter-trust/news-story/a01d87cc533db2c69d0d4776f1be55f5

    I think Tony is just pissed off with the idea of any new PM,

    as they, unlike him, will get to live in the Lodge. 🙂

  23. Grimace

    Do you or anyone else know why Adani doesnt just buy one of these mines?

    I’ll bet it’s because of the royalty deed that Adani acquired when it bought the tenement. This gives them the right to syphon off $2 per tonne to a shell company in the Caymans. Adani’s personal slush fund, that gets topped up whether the mine makes a profit or not.
    Adani personally benefits whether the mine is profitable or not. The $2 per tonne is locked in.
    He won’t get it from buying another coal mine.
    This should be a total red flag to any half decent government, except of course, spiv central i.e. the Coalition.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-14/adani-carmichael-coalmine-to-shift-millions-to-cayman-islands/8350704

  24. Second Easter revelation by patribotics

    Carter Page Went to Moscow With a Tape of Donald Trump Offering Treason For Hacking

    Sources with links to the intelligence community say it is believed that Carter Page went to Moscow in early July carrying with him a pre-recorded tape of Donald Trump offering to change American policy if he were to be elected, to make it more favorable to Putin. In exchange, Page was authorized directly by Trump to request the help of the Russian government in hacking the election.

    https://patribotics.blog/2017/04/16/carter-page-went-to-moscow-with-a-tape-of-donald-trump-offering-treason-for-hacking/?preview_id=1610&preview_nonce=2aa15d6199

  26. Grimace,
    Lets have a look at what DFAT think about Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran. DFAT advises do not travel for the first two, and exercise a high degree of caution in Iran.

    Yes. lets. As I clearly stated, in Iraq and Afghanistan you still have the attempt by the coalition forces to rout ISIS, the Taliban and Al Qaeda offshoots. So, no, I wouldn’t be game enough to travel there right now. However, as I also stated, those countries now have democratically-elected governments and the wars which we took part in, are over. So, as I also stated, those countries and their people should be undergoing the healing process between Sunii and Shia, and Christians, and it is their problem to now sort out, not ours. Although, I will admit that it is a problem, centuries in the making, which will not be sorted out overnight. But it’s not our problem.

    As for Iran, and also for the other countries, persecuted minorities ARE our problem and we can help them by being good global citizens willing to take them in to our tolerant society.

    I find the economic refugee arguement very, very tiresome.

    Tiresome it may be to you, but true it is. Interviews with boat-borne asylum seekers bear that out. Australia should give safe harbour to refugees fleeing persecution and bloodshed, not people who can’t get as well-paying a job in their homeland as they can here.

    As for the argument that, if these people weren’t desperate they wouldn’t attempt to cross the Sunda Strait. Well then, make sure they don’t by cutting off access to Australia by this route. If they are as desperate as you say, then they can put their efforts into convincing us that we should take them in as part of our refugee intake.

    Finally, I believe that Manus Island and Nauru Detention Centres should be empty. We can only achieve that by preventing boate-borne asylum seekers coming to Australia, but keeping them there as a deterrent.

  27. Tony Abbott HAD the Voter’s trust. And he blew it out of the water! Once bitten, twice shy for that snake in the grass.

  28. Cat

    The whole saving lives by denying boat people access line is destroyed when the Australian controlled centres are being shot at.

    Deterrence at what cost?

  29. This gives them the right to syphon off $2 per tonne to a shell company in the Caymans. Adani’s personal slush fund, that gets topped up whether the mine makes a profit or not.

    Why are taxpayers giving this mob any money at all? It’s just preposterous.

  31. Here in Melbourne, planning laws were changed in the last few years in terms of zoning. Areas near infrastructure such as public transport and commercial shops allowed for constructing of multi dwellings. Therefore go anywhere in Melbourne now and you will see a building boom of apartments and town houses. Homes that are run down and formerly the domain of first home buyers, is now being snapped up by developers. This has caused a huge surge in property prices. Houses are going for crazy prices and first home buyers only option is to venture out to those house and land package deals. Having said that, due to the changing nature of work ie casualisation and contract work, it is becoming extremely difficult for young people to acquire finance without their parents being nominated as guarantors.
    Another not often mentioned thing, is that whilst the boom in house prices has occurred, many are benefitting from becoming cashed up as a result of an inheritance, and first home buyers are also competing with this in the market.

  32. Confessions
    Monday, April 17, 2017 at 10:01 am
    This gives them the right to syphon off $2 per tonne to a shell company in the Caymans. Adani’s personal slush fund, that gets topped up whether the mine makes a profit or not.

    Why are taxpayers giving this mob any money at all? It’s just preposterous.

    Hopefully the whole scheme will fall over due to lack of finance from the banks and lack of sufficient markets for their coal.

  33. PhoenixRed

    Louise Mensch has been busy over the Easter Break!
    She has done brilliant work connecting all the dots.
    Who do you think has been her main sources throughout this whole imbroglio?

  37. victoria Monday, April 17, 2017 at 10:08 am
    PhoenixRed
    Louise Mensch has been busy over the Easter Break!
    She has done brilliant work connecting all the dots.
    Who do you think has been her main sources throughout this whole imbroglio?

    **********************************************
    It’s simply overpowering in its complexity and as I said once before has a cast of players bigger than Ben Hur …..

    She obviously has some great ‘contacts’ to feed a lot of ‘insider’ stuff to her – would not be surprised if she has really good British Intel people sending her stuff ……people like Steele who is still a significant part of the big picture …..and his connections

  38. Citizen
    The problem is that Adani may want to go ahead irrespective of the mines profitability, perhaps finance it from the Adani Group, if he can rake off dollars to a personal slush fund. Remember, Adani Group is a listed entity, it’s not just him personally. (His family controls about 56% of the shares.)
    Why would he worry if the other shareholders take a hit, if he can syphon off royalty payments? Adani only makes money from the Adani Group when it makes a profit, but “family” royalty payments happen whatever.
    If that’s not enough, Adani companies are currently being probed for fraud.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-22/adani-companies-facing-multiple-corruption-probes/8140100

  39. Re Adani, I don’t know the details of their deal re coal tonnage, but they got that by buying out a local miner that went broke and so inherited the deal.

  40. I don’t know whether these two sentences are from the same i.v.

    Cabinet Minister Darren Chester said the Coalition already had a plan to prevent Labor from winning the next election.
    …
    “The best way to keep Bill Shorten out of the Lodge is to be a good government,” Mr Chester told AM.

  41. Lizzie

    “The best way to keep Bill Shorten out of the Lodge is to be a good government”

    Darren Chester’s extreme cunning to the fore.

  42. c@tmomma @ #76 Monday, April 17, 2017 at 9:51 am

    However, as I also stated, those countries now have democratically-elected governments and the wars which we took part in, are over. So, as I also stated, those countries and their people should be undergoing the healing process between Sunii and Shia, and Christians, and it is their problem to now sort out, not ours. Although, I will admit that it is a problem, centuries in the making, which will not be sorted out overnight. But it’s not our problem.

    So those people caught up in it should just suck it up and put up with it because it might become OK there for their children or grandchildren or … .

    As for Iran, and also for the other countries, persecuted minorities ARE our problem and we can help them by being good global citizens willing to take them in to our tolerant society.

    How are these people any different from other legitimate refugees?

    … Interviews with boat-borne asylum seekers bear that out. Australia should give safe harbour to refugees fleeing persecution and bloodshed, not people who can’t get as well-paying a job in their homeland as they can here.

    Are these the super extensive interview and vetting processes on the boats whilst travelling back to their country of origin?

    As for the argument that, if these people weren’t desperate they wouldn’t attempt to cross the Sunda Strait. Well then, make sure they don’t by cutting off access to Australia by this route. If they are as desperate as you say, then they can put their efforts into convincing us that we should take them in as part of our refugee intake.

    The Sunda Strait is the body of water that separates Java and Sumatra so to cross it you would be travelling from one part of Indonesia to another. Regular ferries ply this route so it is much cheaper and easier to use them as opposed to engaging with a people-smuggler for no purpose. I did once employ a “people-smuggler” to travel the Sunda Strait, but this was to venture out to the volcano, Anak Krakatoa in the middle of it.

    Finally, I believe that Manus Island and Nauru Detention Centres should be empty. We can only achieve that by preventing boate-borne asylum seekers coming to Australia, but keeping them there as a deterrent.

    only?
    How about moving them to locations in Australia and not sending any new ones there.
    That would empty them very quickly.

  43. Rachel Maddow’s excellent reporting on Trump and Russia is driving Fox News crazy

    It is clear Rachel Maddow is scaring Fox News. She is beating them consistently in the ratings and her reach is increasing. Just maybe some Fox News addicts are weaning themselves off the crack.

    It is clear that Rachel Maddow is having an impact because of her in-depth reporting. She gives serious print journalists their due. And that is a disturbing proposition for the purveyors of false news and misinformation.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/rachel-maddows-excellent-reporting-on-trump-and-russia-is-driving-fox-news-crazy/

  44. Guytaur,
    The whole saving lives by denying boat people access line is destroyed when the Australian controlled centres are being shot at.

    The whole false equivalence by attempting to tug at the heartstrings, does not a valid argument make.

    Anyway, the whole ‘saving lives by denying boat-borne asylum seekers access’ is not ‘a line’. What it is is a valid reason for stopping it. Or would you, like The Greens, guytaur, prefer that a certain number of boat-borne asylum seekers die at sea so some can make it here by that means? Not very humanitarian of you, if you don’t mind me saying so to someone who seems to pride themselves on their humanitarian stances, if you do believe that.

    The simple truth is, Australia can take enough refugees by other, safer, means without having to allow that silly scenario to start up all over again.

  45. @ C@Tmomma
    Iraq and Afghanistan are not democracies in any meaningful sense, and while the wars we started are over, the consequences for the local population are going to continue for a very long time.

    I’ll make it really simple to understand, though our meddling over decades we broke it, so we own the consequences. Consequences which were entirely predictable. Declaring “job done, up to them to sort out now” when the place is still so dangerous that normal everyday activities can’t go on without the protection of mercenaries for anyone with the good fortune of being able to afford them is disingenuous.

    If the economic refugee argument held any weight then Australia would have long ago been overwhelmed by economic refugees from Indonesia. We haven’t because none of the other pre-conditions for a refugee crisis have occured in Indonesia. If all of a sudden hundreds of thousands of Indonesians did decide to come south, there would be very little we could do about it for same reasons Europe can’t stop the flow of refugees from North Africa.

    The Left need to never stop hammering home that it was the Right who initiated this catastrophe, and that they own responsibility for its entirely predictable subsequent consequences.

  46. PhoenixRed

    Yes I was thinking that UK Intell. Considering she was a former Tory MP, and on the committee for the Leveson Inquiry. It makes sense she would have those contacts. The movie will be tres good me thinks!!

  48. Grimace,
    What an unrealistic argument you put up.
    According to your logic, because ‘we’ broke it, ‘we’ are duty-bound to fix it AND take all the asylum seekers from those countries we ‘broke’ until the cows come home.

    So, using your logic, does that mean that England should accept Indigenous Australian refugees, because they ‘broke’ the Australia they conquered? Or African refugees, because they ‘broke’ Africa in colonial times? Or every Jamaican, Indian or Pakistani who now wants to migrate to England because they ‘broke’ their countries too?

    It just doesn’t make logical sense to have an open-ended, open door Immigration policy forevermore. At some stage you have to draw a line under it and make decisions which will say that you have done your fair share and then move on to helping those refugees and asylum seekers who need your help now!

    have you noticed that I have not once included Syrian refugees among that number we should no longer help? There’s a good reason for that. That being, we are there now as part of the force that is in their country and they are in pressing need of our help as much as possible. Sure, in the future there will also be many, many of them who will have to pick up the pieces of their lives once a solution is found to their crisis. However, just because Australia has been there now, doesn’t mean we own it and whoever wishes to claim they are a refugee from the crisis, into the future and forevermore.

    Looking at it from an environmental perspective, this country also does not have the carrying capacity to be able to accept a virtually endless stream of refugees from the conflicts of the day wherever they may be in the world.

  49. Good morning all,

    Four weeks until the budget and the government is fighting amongst itself re the centre piece housing affordability ” package and talking about Bill Shorten.

    Business as usual.

    Re the Adani rail link concessional loan. Labor has been consistent over recent months with its ” support the mine but not the loan ” approach. Consistent but low key. It has only really been the last week that Shorten has ramped things up and pushed hard against the loan. I find this interesting. Shorten is a very shrewd political operator with a very good political ear and has been constantly underestimated by the coalition and the MSM. So, why would he be pushing this position now ? It was obvious to me they the main push for the loan is coming from the Nationals with the Barnaby tail wagging the Turnbull dog. Poor Ol Malcolm was forced to front up and push the case for the loan but by doing so and attacking Shorten he has left himself wide open. The silence was deafening from the Libs side with barely a whisper from Morrison, Cormann in support of Turnbull and the loan. Now, Shorten may be aware of some potential bomb set to explode surrounding Adani and the rail line, he may be aware of growing internal opposition within lib ranks over the loan or a combination of both. Whatever, Shorten picks his battles so the vigor with which he, Jason Clare and others in labor are pushing their opposition to the loan is telling I believe.

    It will be interesting to see how this all evolves and what is yet to be revealed.

    Cheers and a great day to all.

  50. victoria Monday, April 17, 2017 at 11:10 am

    PhoenixRed

    Yes I was thinking that UK Intell. Considering she was a former Tory MP, and on the committee for the Leveson Inquiry. It makes sense she would have those contacts. The movie will be tres good me thinks!!

    ***********************************
    The “impeachment” even better ……..

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