Sky News reports the first post-budget poll, from ReachTEL, has Labor leading 53-47. After exclusion of the 10.6% undecided, the primary vote results are Liberal 34.2%, Nationals 3.8%, Labor 34.1%, One Nation 11.0% and Greens 10.9%. Nonetheless, the bank levy appears to have gone down well, recording 39.8% strong support, 22.3% support, 22% neutral, 8.3% oppose, 7.9% strongly oppose, and the Medicare levy appears to have been well received as tax hikes go, with 48.2% in favour and 34.1% opposed. Nonetheless, 51.6% rated that the budget would make them worse off, 10.8% better off, and 37.6% about the same. I believe the poll was conducted last night; can’t help you with sample size at this point (UPDATE: correct on the first count, 2300 on the latter).
UPDATE: It seems a second, completely different ReachTEL poll was commissioned by Seven News and conducted on the same evening, and this one had Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. However, no primary votes are provided, which is significant because a closer look at the numbers from the Sky News poll suggests the two-party result reflects a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor – applying flows from last year’s federal election, the result would be 51.5-48.5. The Seven poll had similar supplementary questions and got similar answers: the bank levy recorded 60% approval and 18% disapproval, the Medicare increase 51% approval and 28% disapproval, but the budget overall was rated good or very good by only 29%, poor or very poor by 33%, and average by the rest. No sample size to relate at this point.
UPDATE 2: Here’s the regular weekly BludgerTrack update, which incorporates only the latest Essential Research results and not these two from ReachTEL.
william bowe @ #995 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 7:57 pm
Must go back and re-read. Nothing particularly struck me when I skimmed through both.
I blame Newspoll for any grumpiness around here today.
BW, that must really hurt. I know how you must feel. I am still smarting over some here calling me a liberal. (Which I agree, is not as bad as being called a ‘greens’).
Antonbrucker
‘ I believe that if Rudd had stuck to his guns the electorate would have respected his position and supported him against the mining coys. It’s too bad Labor went to water.’
It wasn’t Labor who went to water on the issue, it was Rudd.
I had first hand experience of this – I went on local radio to mount a defence of the mining tax. Rudd’s office went ballistic; I got the transcript of my interview within an hour, covered with outraged comments and demands to know where I’d got my information (from Labor’s own talking points, actually).
Throughout the day, I was deluged with emails from Rudd’s office, claiming I had lost Western Australia for Labor.
On the other hand, I had people in the campaign office contacting me and saying that they couldn’t understand what the fuss was about, but Rudd’s office was in full panic mode.
I was asked to put my name to a ‘clarification’ – which made me laugh because it basically repeated the points I’d made in the interview, but less coherently – which would apparently have been tabled in Question Time by Rudd if the issue came up.
It didn’t, of course, because the ‘issue’ was a beat up by Rudd’s very young, very inexperienced staff.
Rudd was the one who ran away from the mining tax, just as he ran away from defending pink batts. By the time Gillard took the reins, it was impossible to undo the damage.
Gotta hand it to truffles. While guiding the nation he’s still got time to shore up his position in the party so that, when he hands over his fiefdom to Capt’n Brown, and there are allegations of branch stacking, complaints to head office will fall on deaf ears. What a wonderful strategic thinker he is.
Done my re-reading and not even a storm in a teacup. Storm in a thimble perhaps?
zoomster @ #1004 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 8:21 pm
Yes, Rudd’s attempt to do a ‘Peter Beatie’ on the HIP failed miserably.
He should have toughed it out.
Zoomster:
Stop injecting reality for the Ruddists. You know they’ll just come after you with personal attacks for daring to criticise their hero.
confessions @ #1008 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 8:27 pm
Just hilarious in its ignorance.
Mining tax, pink batts, you can understand how you’d conflate the two…
jenauthor @ #912 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 5:49 pm
I can’t see Trump & family scarpering to Russia. If the Yanks had a president who went down for treason (or similar) and scarpered somewhere else, they’d stop at NOTHING to get their hands on him/her. The Russians would not be stupid enough to entertain the Orange Ignoramus.
boerwar @ #996 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 7:58 pm
That’s outrageous. Every knows you and your alter-ego, Bluey The Blue Tied Octopus are died in the wool Tories.
You awarding the LNP 22 bonus points during the last election is the sole reason we still have Turnbull as PM.
The flow on effects of this egregious act are numerous:
Shocking standard of umpiring in AFL Grand Finals;
Bob Dylan being awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature;
Donald Trump as POTUS;
and many more.
Awarding the LNP 22 bonus points has unlocked the gates of hell, and will result in the end of civilisation as we know it.
If you were actually a Green you would have done far less damage than you did.
I’m not sure why Tingle in particular is being criticised here. She has been openly critical of both the Abbott and Turnbull governments for quite a while. Surely she is entitled to some criticism of the Labor opposition which has become a little repetitive and bland at times.
In relation to budget bounces, I don’t think there will be much if anything. The budget was stabilising at best and contained very little that would grab the imagination.
In relation to Turnbull’s future I can’t see a leadership change unless he sees the writing on the wall and resigns of his own accord, when was the last time a PM did that for the sake of their party?
zoomster:
The bottom line is that Rudd was clearly unsuited for the role of PM. The fact that he can’t jag himself an ongoing job after his electoral embarrassment is further proof that he burned a heap of bridges and is now left unemployed with no prospects.
confessions @ #1013 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 8:47 pm
Indeed. Perhaps beaten only in this respect by Mark Latham.
Dan G:
Bluey was an ironic piss take of Ch9’s blue ringed octopus ‘calling’ the 2010 election. That the concept of Bluey grew here is because of commenters not Boerwar.
P1:
Ouch!
Test
confessions @ #1015 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 8:49 pm
Erm, my “rant” was tongue in cheek.
I know many Poll Bludgers find commentary of R-G-R tedious because of the partisan views which tend to dominate. But Labor and by that I include Labor supporters and concerned critics really need to understand the issues which drove leadership instability for many years.
The election of Latham, Crean and then Rudd were all orchestrated mostly by ambitious people in the ALP right who didn’t see Beazley (also from the right) as being strong enough, popular enough or whatever.
Both Rudd and Gillard were active players in this. Gillard was a bit unusual in being in a Victorian left group but clearly at odds with some in the Victorian left and actively courting support from the right.
Analysis of the “get a new leader” mentality in the ALP in the post 1996 era needs to be understood. Rudd and Gillard were both at fault during those years.
Equally the issues with a membership based leader election option, including the current ALP hybrid. Any system which can impose a political leader not accepted by a big majority of a party’s MPs is a problem – see Aust Democrats and UK Labor. Better idea for party members/branches to have the ability to remove local MPs rather than remove/elect party leaders. Of course there are always legacy problems with sitting MPs/status quo that make that a difficult option as well when change is needed.
I wish the folks here would give up on the R-G-R war thing. It gets boring really quickly and turns people off.
For an outsider looking in, it appears there are people in the ALP ( some of whom post here ) who still fighting with each other over Rudd/Gillard when in the reality is that your party would be better off if you pulled your heads out from up your own egos,forgive and forget, and got on with the real fight which is against the conservatives.
confessions @ #1013 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 8:47 pm
Sheer delusion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Rudd#Post-prime_ministerial_career_.282013.E2.80.93present.29
International roles
Since leaving the Australian Parliament, Rudd has served in senior roles for a range of international organisations and educational institutions.
Dan Gulberry
“That’s outrageous. Every knows you and your alter-ego, Bluey The Blue Tied Octopus are died in the wool Tories.
You awarding the LNP 22 bonus points during the last election is the sole reason we still have Turnbull as PM.”
We all know that Malcolm was splashing the cash around to buy the election, perhaps he got to bluey – I demand a royal commission!
Zoomster – I don’t accept for a moment that the time had been passed when the mining tax became non-viable or it could not have been successfully prosecuted at an election. The electorate would not have sided with the mining coys.
Rudd’s main shortcoming is that he has never quite managed to be as good as he believes he is and he promised to be.
wakefield @ #1019 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 8:58 pm
Very thoughtful contribution that soars above those of the reflexive Rudd bashers.
Beazley’s own contribution to the perception of him not appearing to being strong enough needs to be remembered. He stood aside for a while.
Any ALP MP can always be challenged for pre-selection if that is what you had in mind.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Rudd
It’s a very detailed entry.
I wonder who wrote and curates it?
Wise words Greg McAuliffe
Still, for anyone wanting to get a proper perspective on R-G-R now
that a reasonable passage of time has elapsed, and the fury of the moment
has abated, it’s well worth listening to Margaret Throsby interview
Sarah Ferguson over her memorable programme The Killing Season
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/throsby/sarah-ferguson/7454828
greg mcauliffe @ #1021 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:00 pm
Well some of us have been working on ALP campaigns for many years, decades even. And that is irrespective of who was the leader or local candidate.
But it is not much fun doing this against a background of leadership shenanigans.
True David,
And he’s not the only one to suffer from high expectations.
Rudd’s main problem was that he has Bemused as his most ardent supporter 😉
Question yes Turnbull suffers the same problem only much more so.
Hence why he is currently unemployed.
Now, Mr Bowen said Labor was still considering whether to repeal the cut for small to medium businesses. “What you should assume in relation to that already legislated is that we are carefully looking at all options, we will have more to say.”
Labor will have to promise to repeal the company tax cuts after last weeks performance in parliament. The CPG will eat them alive if they don’t.
ctar1 @ #1027 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:06 pm
Check here to answer your question.
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kevin_Rudd&action=history
adrian @ #1031 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:11 pm
confessions @ #1033 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:12 pm
Something unhealthy about a person who keeps repeating an easily disproved lie.
Bemused,(and to all those in the R-G-R fueds) I get that you people are passionate, but to the non party aligned voter, of which I am one, rehashing this crap does not do you or your party an favours. It just reminds people of what a shit fight it was and shows that if it’s members ( of the ALP ) can’t get over it why should people vote for your party as the internal hate is still there.
adrian @ #1031 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:11 pm
bloody emoticons. Trying again.
You know, I think even Rudd would have bemused on his STFU list.
May I just make one last comment about the ‘body shaming’ brouhaha. Would it be possible for you all to just take a little while to reflect upon the world as it is now, not the world as you think it should be before you pass judgement, because the fact is, if you spend any time at all around your average Millennials, you will realise that commenting about people’s appearance is what they do as a matter of course, day in, day out, publicly, on social media.
It’s a narcissistic, bitchy world out there, and my problem originated from the fact that I carried that behaviour into a place that is populated by people who don’t behave that way. So I have learned that salient lesson.
Or, maybe, that it’s okay to compare someone to a vegetable but not add anything about the quality or quantity of that vegetable’s physical dimensions.
Don’t get me wrong, I can see how it offended people to elide a comment made about a former Prime Minister and tie it to another prominent female in the Parliament House arena.
So, as it offends people’s sensibilities I will refrain from behaving as I have.
I will also leave 2 questions to be answered if anyone can.
1. If most of the rest of the Fairfax journalists went out on strike, WHY didn’t the Australian Financial Review journalists join with them in solidarity for the cause?
2. It has been stated that Section Editors were exempt. Why then did Peter Hartcher and Ross Gittins strike? Or, more to the point, why didn’t the Section Editors at the AFR decide to join with them(see 1, above)?
Alias – I find that most NSW ALP left, and other NSW commentators and that covers quite a few in the ABC including seemingly Sarah Ferguson, have such a mistrust or hatred of the NSW Labor Right that it clouds their vision. The position is basically that if the NSW Labor Right support something then the best position is to oppose it and vice versa.
There is some merit in the position given the nasty history of the NSW Labor Right, but in some cases it causes poor assessments. I think some of Sarah Ferguson’s effort related to the poorly named “The Killing Season” are in that category. The stupid portrayal of Gillard in the ABC “At home with Julia” series was a much worse example.
greg mcauliffe @ #1038 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:16 pm
I feel no hate, but I don’t want the same mistakes ever repeated.
Sensible analysis of some of the decisions, such as was taking place between myself and OC, without rancour, is fine by me. But the the droogs moved in.
Ipsos 53-47 TPP to Labor.
My understanding is that a small number of AFR journalists did indeed strike, as they were members of the union. Non-union journalists (such as those on contracts, contributors etc) are not required to strike.
Wakefield
Years ago, I was told (on some issue) that the NSW Labor Left was waiting until the NSW Labor Right declared its position so that it then knew what its position (opposing the Right’s) would be…
player one @ #1039 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:18 pm
And Adrian’s biggest problem is he has you pissing in his pocket.
For what Ipsos is worth, still have The Greens’ primary on an improbable 13; ALP 35; LNP 37.
New thread.
Bemused, I should of added that I wasn’t trying to single you out or that I meant offence to you personally by using your byline in my post…..I was talking about the RGR posts in general.
Thanks Toby. That will do. Although the last one being 55 (that WB left off Bludgertrack) means a 2 point “bounce” : )