Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its wide lead in an Essential Research poll that also gauges opinion on party polarisation, same-sex marriage and foreign leaders.

Primary vote numbers will have to wait until the full report is published later today, but The Guardian reports that the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research has Labor maintaining the 54-46 two-party lead it opened after a one-point gain last week.

Among the other findings:

• Seventy-one per cent agreed both sides of politics should meet in some place called “the middle” more often; 45% said they would consider voting for a party that sat in it; and another 45% (or perhaps the same one) agreed that Australian parties were “too ideological”, compared with 37% who perceived no substantial difference between them (I assume these two were separate options to the same question, although this is unclear).

• Yet another question on same-sex marriage finds 61% supportive and 26% opposed, and 50% supporting a binding plebiscite compared with 23% for a vote by parliament and 9% for a non-binding plebiscite followed by a parliamentary conscience vote.

• Questions on foreign leaders found 51% had a favourable view of Justin Trudeau, which would be an impressive result for a Canadian Prime Minister on name recognition, never mind approval. Angela Merkel on 43% and Emmanuel Macron on 41% both rated higher than Theresa May on 33%. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both rated 16%, and 6% had somehow formed a favourable view of Kim Jong-un. All of these numbers will become more meaningful when we see the full report, which will hopefully also include results for unfavourable.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,344 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 27
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  2. AP: BREAKING: Republican Sens. Mike Lee and Jerry Moran announce opposition to health care bill, dealing blow to GOP hopes.

  4. WilkieMP: andrewwilkie.org/project/dont-a… DON’T BE AFRAID OF TERRORISTS: BE TERRIFIED OF DUTTON’S SUPER-SECURITY MINISTRY #auspol #politas

  6. political_alert: The Prime Minister will hold a press conference with the Attorney-General, Immigration Minister and Justice Minister at 11:15am, APH #auspol

  7. Rob_Stott: Isn’t this Homeland Security thing exactly how Abbott was criticised for operating? Drop to the papers then railroaded through cabinet

    One journalist is thinking

  9. Given Turnbull has set this Homeland Super department without the support of Brandis, Bishop, Keenan and probably Pyne, then it looks more and more like an attempt to divide the right of the Liberal party by ceding power to Dutton and buying his loyalty.

  11. A R
    So the ~38% of people who still consider themselves Trump supporters aren’t the sharpest tools in the shed. What else is new?

    This isn’t what the article is saying at all. It’s saying something very different – this is an emotional response, nothing to do with IQ or education. It’s Hillbilly Elegy in Colorado, divided east from west. It’s a long read but well worth it to get the feel these people. Poverty and underfunding, along with family baggage, underpins much of how they think, and yet they want small Govt still seeing big Govt as interfering and authoritarian and socialist. (Zoomster and I might debate their core belief in self-reliance.) While something like a UBI funded by increasing tax of the 1% would bridge the industrial and social collapse they are trapped in, it would be seen as big Govt, an evil, a rejection of the America God gave them.

    To emphasise how deeply they feel and emotional this is, the article pointedly concludes with one protagonist saying:
    “I’ve never been this emotionally invested in a political leader in my life,” he said. “The more they hate him, the more I want him to succeed. Because what they hate about him is what they hate about me.”

  14. And following on the emotion trumps (sic) facts, brown-noser Turnbull and his Brownshirts are playing a very emotional game here, the way all fascists do. I find it terrifying we have come to this. This puts tremendous pressure on Shorten. Facts and zingers wont work here.

  17. Thanks Zoomster, much obliged! 😉

    I think it’s perceptual, not actual. Looking at falling funds and support for schools for example, you find things like this:

    One person told me half in jest that the best way to get voters to approve new funding would be to blame everything on a lack of support by Denver élites: a tax increase in the guise of rugged self-reliance.

    I’d like to see them debate a UBI for example, which Musk says will be absolutely essential as automation and AI finishes off the industrial collapse once and for all.

  22. AdamSpenceAU: Btw, if today’s national security announcement seems familiar, its because it was basically Episode 4 of The Hollowmen. #auspol

  23. BernardKeane: Isn’t it hilarious that Brandis has been given IGIS, the Ombudsman and INSLM to make up for his abject humiliation?

  24. 7 News Brisbane‏Verified account @7NewsBrisbane · 3m3 minutes ago
    Anti-Terror Overhaul: The Prime Minister says an Office Of National Intelligence will be established in Canberra. #auspol #7News

    “National Intelligence” = now that’s a new idea 🙂
    “complimentarities”, says Brandis.

  25. Segment on Wendy Harmer’s morning show today on NBN.
    The guy they were talking to was unafraid to point out the disaster that the NBN has become, and who was to blame.

    Take home message is that we have a third rate NBN, and consumers will be paying for a first rate service that they will come nowhere near to receiving.

    NZ has managed to get it right, but then they don’t have a lying, ideologically driven and inept government. Probably.

  28. Greg Jericho‏Verified account @GrogsGamut · 2m2 minutes ago
    Dutton immediately linking this with “stop the boats” (as did Turnbull) shows just how bullshit are the reasons for these changes.

  30. BarnsGreg: #auspol Dutton is contemptuous of the rule of law. Giving him Home Office style department is seriously dangerous.

  32. ItzaDream @ #111 Tuesday, July 18th, 2017 – 11:16 am

    this is an emotional response, nothing to do with IQ or education.

    Those aren’t mutually exclusive aspects; letting your emotions dominate your political decisions isn’t the brightest thing in the world. It seems mainly…Sith-like.

    People have legitimate grounds for feeling angry, disaffected, and politically alienated. I don’t dispute that. However that’s not the same as having a reasonable basis for supporting Trump, it’s not an excuse for 6+ months of willful ignorance or playing a juvenile game of “fuck ’em all” with a nuclear state, and it doesn’t mean that believing Trump will actually help when it’s clear that he’s as disdainful (or probably, more disdainful) of the poor as the next billionaire isn’t foolish at best.

    Trump is conning these people, exploiting their emotions, and they’re falling for it. They’re entitled to their emotional response, and to put that ahead of all other considerations when deciding where to throw their political support. I don’t agree that makes them smart, or even not un-smart.

    If what people hate about Trump are that he abuses women, is openly racist, and incompetent to the point that struggles to speak in coherent sentences, “what they hate about him is what they hate about me” isn’t the smartest statement to make. It’s more emotive than literal, but still poorly considered and unwise.

  34. Ouch!

    A journo says the biggest cooperation that is needed on terror issues is between the states and the commonwealth and this announcement does nothing about it!
    It’s not getting a lot of support from the media judging from the questions.

  37. Lizzie

    I agree. Take out 2nd Amendment adopt US Declaration of Human Rights. We need protection from politicians power grabs

  40. Turnbull is mimicking Abbott…once again. Turnbull is once again proving to voters that he is not what he once seemed to be or purports to be. Turnbull is false promise itself. He is whittling away his own credentials. If anyone is likely to benefit from this, it is not Turnbull, it’s Abbott, who is at least regarded as sincere in his madness.

  41. Bernard Keane‏Verified account
    @Bernard Keane
    Remember, Turnbull has just received a major intelligence review that said absolutely nothing about the need for a mega-portfolio.

    Mr Denmore‏ @MrDenmore · 31s31 seconds ago

    Replying to @BernardKeane

    This 2011 US paper found the creation of an umbrella security body just created more bureaucracy and pork barrelling https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1961717 …

  43. BOConnorMP: Turnbull first sacks Dutton from Nat Security Cab Cee. Now gives him mega role. Why? Security of nation or political security of PM? #auspol

  44. This 2011 US paper found the creation of an umbrella security body just created more bureaucracy and pork barrelling

    Of course it does! Just look at the wide scale industry of law enforcement in the US. We don’t need that here.

  47. ‘Turnbull has just received a major intelligence review that said absolutely nothing about the need for a mega-portfolio.’

    Given Turnbull, the only explanation that makes sense is that there is a Newspoll due.
    But isn’t it a bit early? Even assuming there is one next week.
    This will be forgotten by Thursday, except by the right which will see it as another snub for Abbott.

  48. Dutton was a lazy do-nothing Health Minister, but found his voice when he was able to put “stop the boats ” on repeat. That’s all he does, even now.

  50. Guytaur
    Tuesday, July 18, 2017 at 10:50 am
    WilkieMP: andrewwilkie.org/project/dont-a… DON’T BE AFRAID OF TERRORISTS: BE TERRIFIED OF DUTTON’S SUPER-SECURITY MINISTRY #auspol #politas

    Very interesting. I commented a week or so ago that Labor probably only needs to win five seats at the next election to get rid of the Liberals. Bandt would be certain to support them and this comment by Wilkie strengthens my belief that he probably would too.

    Not that minority government would be ideal (and I don’t believe it will come to that), but it would be better than having to put up with this bunch of incompetent wreckers for another term. Australia desperately needs a good Labor government to get in and start repairing all the damage that has been done.

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