Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Some better numbers for the Prime Minister from Essential Research, on both voting intention and preferred Liberal leader.

As reported by The Guardian, the Coalition has picked up a point on Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average for the second week in a row, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 36%, Labor is down one to 36%, One Nation is up a point to 11% and the Greens are steady on 10% (UPDATE: No, actually it’s the Coalition steady on 38% and One Nation up one to 8% – the rest is okay). Further:

• On the question of who would be best to lead the Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull recorded 25%, up five since March; Julie Bishop 20%, down three; Tony Abbott 10%, unchanged; and 13% chose an unspecified “someone else” option. For Labor, Bill Shorten was on 20%, down one; Tanya Plibersek 13%, unchanged; Anthony Albanese 13%, up two; with someone else on 13%.

• Fifty-two per cent were of the view that economic inequality was worsening, with 26% saying it was stable and only 12% concurring with Scott Morrison’s suggestion that it was diminishing. No doubt relatedly, 82% supported forcing multinational companies to pay a minimum tax rate on their Australian earnings; 61% favoured a higher top-tier income tax rate; 71% a “Buffett rule” to force the wealthy to pay a minimum 30% tax rate; and 86% measures to inhibit the wealthy from minimising tax payments by sending funds offshore.

• Fifty-eight per cent expressed support for four-year terms, with only 24% opposed.

Another poll worth noting is a rare effort on voting intention in the Australian Capital Territory, conducted by ReachTEL for Anglicare and the Canberra Gambling Reform Alliance, which records Labor on 36.4% (down 2.0% since the 2016 election), the Liberals on 38.8% (up 2.1%) and the Greens on 13.3% (up 3.0%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. CTar1 @ #1145 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 1:57 pm

    A R

    Windows 10, Chrome, C+ v o.7.7.

    I’ve ‘refreshed’ (circle right arrow?)

    After the refresh the ctrl brackets appear when I type them but Still no indent when posted.

    Thanks for your forbearance .

    The Ctl square bracket is to post as it appears in text.

    Just type open square bracket followed by your text followed by close square bracket.

    I hope this makes sense to you.

    Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ

  4. I must be thick (not an unlikely idea)

    I love my square brackets

    After the refresh the ctrl brackets appear when I type them but Still no indent when posted.

    Ohh, it is just so easy and quick and convenient

    So the ctrl brackets became visible but no indent.

    It was such a bummer not having them.

  6. JOHN BOY

    thanks again KayJay you amazing groover you xx

    I will consult with Brown Bear and may have to announce our engagement.

    The thanks are really for the work of BK

    I simply repost his cartoon section later in the day.

    ❣ ☕

  8. The Sphere of Influence to retire:

    Laurie Oakes to retire
    2:13PMROSIE LEWIS, STEPHEN BROOK
    Veteran Nine political editor Laurie Oakes will retire in a fortnight.

  10. I must be thick (not an unlikely idea)

    I love my square brackets

    After the refresh the ctrl brackets appear when I type them but Still no indent when posted.

    Ohh, it is just so easy and quick and convenient

    So the ctrl brackets became visible but no indent.

    It was such a bummer not having them.

    This is sooo good. Does he know what he’s missing out on?

  16. John Kelly can’t stop internal White House wars

    The conservative Weekly Standard published a blockbuster expose on the escalating battle between National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster and White House chief strategist Steve Bannon.

    There’s now open speculation as to whether Steve Bannon could be the next Trump staffer to be ousted.

    “For some time, Steve Bannon has been considering leaving the White House. One of Bannon’s closest buddies in the West Wing was Reince Priebus, now gone,” the Weekly Standard revealed. “A newly emboldened H.R. McMaster, purging Bannonites with the backing of John Kelly (and the president), could hasten his exit.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/john-kelly-cant-stop-internal-white-house-wars-as-trump-factions-have-gone-to-the-mattresses/

  18. Some of us just have it, dude.

    Man, I was so frustrated by it that I was about to give up posting on PB. But now, its like I am born again!

  24. https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/08/03/nbn-and-murray-darling-disasters-as-much-a-threat-to-turnbull-as-gay-marriage/

    Remember that the Murray-Darling Basin Plan is supposed to be bipartisan and federal-state agreement. The Nationals, however, have always bitterly resented it, particularly in relation to water buybacks, and were only bought off with the wasting of hundreds of millions of dollars on inefficient water infrastructure bribes to irrigators. The removal of Tony Abbott proved to be an opportunity for the Nationals to sabotage the plan from within, by demanding that Malcolm Turnbull agree to move water from the environment portfolio into Barnaby Joyce’s Agriculture Department. Liberal MPs at the time expressed concern about Joyce having control of water, and those concerns have now been vindicated. The Nationals, state and federally, have been undermining the plan in the interests of irrigators, and at the expense of South Australia.

    Following the initial Four Corners revelations, Joyce, allegedly “the best retail politician in Australia”, promptly boasted of controlling water and dismissed industrial-scale water diversion by NSW irrigators as trivial, infuriating the South Australians. So another review was ordered to shut the issue down, this time by the Murray-Darling Basin Authority itself, which is in Joyce’s portfolio. Cue demands for an independent inquiry, which are still ongoing.

    The Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister are personally neck-deep in the NBN and water issues. Both are the result of political fixes on major issues that have come badly unstuck. In neither case is a mere review going to fix things. If the government wasn’t about to rip itself apart on marriage equality, things would be serious.

  25. Malcolm Turnbull dismisses WA GST anger as existing in a ‘parallel universe’.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has accused the media of living in a “parallel universe” in response to suggestions West Australians are angry at him and his Government over the state’s low GST share.

    Mr Turnbull made the comment before departing Perth after a lengthy visit dominated by questions about WA’s GST share and his Government’s response to it.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-03/snipes-turn-to-smiles-as-pm-and-wa-premier-gst-war/8770868

    ‘Before departing’ must mean as close to flight out time as possible!

  27. Rachel Baxendale‏Verified account @rachelbaxendale · 6m6 minutes ago

     More

    Liberal MPs will return to Canberra a day early next week for a special partyroom meeting to discuss gay marriage

  28. The Rapture LU?

    I was going to post a Primus track the other day when BigD and I were talking about Winona Ryder.

    But that beaver was a porcupine?

  29. Liberal MPs will return to Canberra a day early next week for a special partyroom meeting to discuss gay marriage

    And the moderates finally get onto the scoreboard. Managing to keep the Nats out of the party room is a start.

  30. Can the pigeons be coming home to roost at last?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/fossil-fuel-companies-sued-for-climate-change-california-exxon-shell-chevron-a7871671.html

    Three California communities are suing 37 of the world’s largest oil, gas and coal companies for knowingly contributing to climate change.

    San Mateo and Marin counties, as well as the city of Imperial Beach, have filed suit against companies like Exxon, Shell, and Chevron, which they claim produced roughly 20 percent of all greenhouse emissions between 1965 and 2015.

    The communities are now seeking relief from the costs of climate change, which include rising sea levels and carbon dioxide pollution.

    “As a low-income coastal community, we have no capacity to pay for the adaptation measures needed to protect ourselves from these impacts,” Imperial Beach Mayor Serge Dedina said. “It is unfair to force citizens, business owners and taxpayers to fend for ourselves when the source of the problem is so clear.”

    Marin County, meanwhile, argues that the effects of flooding caused by climate change will cost the community upwards of $15.5 billion (£11.9 billion) in the next 15 years alone.

    The communities further claim that the companies knew about the effects of climate change for at least 50 years, but failed to act. The companies, they allege, took steps to secure their own assets, but did nothing to warn the larger community.

  31. lizzie

    Nats will hold their own party room meeting as well as the Libs having theirs.

    Then they’ll have a Coalition Joint Party Room meeting.

    It will be a big day.

  35. So much silliness so a bunch of people who are going to root each other anyway, live with each other anyway, have children and raise families together anyway are prevented from calling it a marriage. Just because some sad fucks with a prurient interest with what others get up to in the privacy of their bedrooms find the idea of a couple of poofs or lezzies going at it a bit ‘confronting’.

    So sad we have to go through this before we can get onto some really important stuff. So much fun watching the wankers in the Coalition tearing themselves apart over it. Sickos, morons and gutless wonders the lot of em.

  37. ratsak

    So much fun watching the wankers in the Coalition tearing themselves apart over it.

    The waste of time on this inevitable decision offends me.

  42. Good afternoon all,

    Interesting the angle the MSM are putting on the liberal party room meeting. ” Meeting a day early ” , ” recalled early ” etc etc.

    Parliament resumes on Tuesday so ,as a matter of course, pollies would be returning to Canberra on Monday in any case so to ramp up the crisis meeting angle is very humerous and interesting. It would be interesting to find out who informed the MSM of this meeting and framed it as a emergency response. A bit of mischief may be at play.

    Saying that, it is good to watch anything and everything Turnbull does on this issue written up as a crisis. Love it.

    Cheers.

  48. Well, of course it’s much more ‘fun’ to fight over an inevitable decision for SSM, or strut about assuring us we’re safe, than to do something concrete for the Murray Darling, or DV, or homelessness, or inequality, or…

  50. I’m sure office workers with a knowledge of the ECQ disclosure rules can be picked up at any CentreLink office.

    No need to train them.

    It’s not my fault we employed people who didn’t know what they were doing and that we failed to address that fact by training them appropriately.

    Hanson says her party’s Queensland branch hired office staff who were not up to the job of making sure it satisfied the state’s political disclosure laws.

    Those workers have since been sacked and systems improved, she said on Thursday.

    Did they follow the correct procedures when dismissing these workers.

    It would be a shame if they went for unfair dismissal.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/03/pauline-hanson-blames-one-nation-staff-for-electoral-law-breaches

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